Three Weeks Hence . . .

. . . the GOP will retake the House and possibly the Senate. If the election were held today, Republicans would capture a 45-seat majority in the House (240-195) and a 51-49 majority in the Senate.

What will happen in the next three weeks? Some voters (mainly independents) will be unable to resist the allure of “something for nothing” (e.g., Obamacare) and will vote for Democrats in the end.

My fearless prediction (which I may change at any time):

  • 37-seat GOP majority in the House (236-199)
  • 50-50 split in the Senate (with Dem VP breaking ties in favor of Dem positions)

It won’t be possible for Republicans to repeal Obamacare. But with absolute control of the House and a cloture-proof voting bloc in the Senate, the GOP will be able to impede the implementation of Obamacare, while blocking other statist initiatives.

It remains to be seen whether congressional Republicans (or enough of them) can resist the urge to seem “compassionate” rather than “mean.”

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My forecast of Republican gains in the House is based on Scott Rasmussen’s generic congressional ballot, which has been polled weekly since January 11, 2009. The data points in the graph below represent the results of the poll, to date. The blue point represents last week’s anomalous dip in the GOP’s fortunes; the red point represents this week’s results, which are in keeping with the long-term trend. My analysis indicates that there will be a slight reversal of GOP gains, as more noncommittal voters choose sides. The slowing of GOP gains is indicated by the shape of the solid black line, which is fitted to the data points. My statistical projection of the trend between now and election day is indicated by the dashed black line.  The odds in favor of a GOP majority are about 9-1.