2020 Vision (II)

I made a bold prediction in “2020 Vision“:

  • Trump holds Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
  • He adds Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
  • Of the usually Red States that are sliding toward the Blue column — Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas — he loses only Arizona.

Bottom line, 318 electoral votes, and possibly even a majority of the fictitious “national” popular vote.

I will now temper that prediction by pointing out (unnecessarily) that the GOP candidate (probably Trump) will have a higher hill to climb than the Democrat candidate.

Here’s how the 2020 electoral vote looks to me, at the moment: solid Democrat, 235; solid Republican, 132; in play, 171. I am still confident that Trump (or his successor) can win in 2020 — the “Blue Wall” is a myth. But victory won’t come as easily as my earlier post implied.

The States in play in 2020 (and the number of electoral votes for each) are:

Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Texas (38)
Wisconsin (10)

Visually (with blue for Republican, red for Democrat, and purple for in play):


Adapted from the electoral map for 2016 at Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Leip uses blue for Republican and red for Democrat.

7 thoughts on “2020 Vision (II)

  1. Iowa just threw out three Republicans in U.S. House Reps. Iowa has four seats. The last remaining Iowa Republican congressman — Steve King, who represents the state’s most conservative district — just barely crawled across the finish line by three percentage points.

    Iowa is likely to go Dem in 2020.

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  2. I think it depends on how the “trade war” turns out for Iowa’s farmers. Trump took Iowa 55-45 in 2016. To lose Iowa after winning by that margin would be an unusual event, unless there truly is a Blue Wave in 2020.

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  3. Actually, the Democrats flipped the first and third districts in Iowa while holding on to the 2nd. Republican Steve King held on to the 4th by three points — a seat he won in 2014 and 2016 by 23 points.

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  4. “Actually, the Democrats flipped the first and third districts in Iowa while holding on to the 2nd. Republican Steve King held on to the 4th by three points — a seat he won in 2014 and 2016 by 23 points.”

    You’re right. Missed that the Iowa 2nd District was a Democrat hold.

    Brutal election for Republicans though.

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  5. Republicans do control the state house and bicameral legislature so it’s not all that bleak. I think the House results were due to frustration over the administration’s trade policies which have hurt farmers. If Trump can ease trade tensions it may help Republicans in 2020.

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