Trump in the Polls: An Update

UPDATED 12/03/19

The story starts here, with Trump’s approval ratings declining from their post-honeymoon peaks:

FIGURE 1
Figure 1
Derived from Rasmussen Reports approval ratings for Trump.

Trump is still doing better than Obama was at the same point in his presidency:

FIGURE 2
Figure 2
Derived from Rasmussen Reports approval ratings for Obama and Trump.

But the slippage is obvious.

It is also obvious in a straightforward comparison of strong-approval ratings, averaged over 7 days:

FIGURE 3
Figure 3
Source: Same as figure 2.

I also compute an enthusiasm ratio, which is the 7-day average of the following ratio: the fraction of likely voters expressing strong approval divided by the fraction of likely voters responding. Trump still has an advantage over Obama, but only because the enthusiasm ratio for Obama was near its lowest level during the first term of his presidency:

FIGURE 4
Figure 4
Source: Same as figure 2.

Every week since the first inauguration of Obama, Rasmussen Reports has asked 2,500 likely voters whether they see the country as going in the right direction or being on the wrong track. The following graph shows the ratios of right direction/wrong track for Trump and Obama:

FIGURE 5
Figure 5
Source: Rasmussen Reports, “Right Direction or Wrong Track“.

The ratio for Trump, after a quick honeymoon start, fell into the same range as Obama’s. It jumped with the passage of the tax cut in December 2017, and remained high after that, until the shutdown. The post-shutdown rebound has given way to downward movement.