Trump Re-election Watch

UPDATED 10/07/19

See this post for explanations of the metrics discussed below.

Rasmussen Reports publishes a presidential-approval poll that I have been recording since the fall of 2008, when Barack Obama was elected to his first term. One of the statistics that I glean from the polling results is the strong-approval rating. Obama won re-election on November 8, 2012, in the 198th week of his presidency. His strong-approval rating was 34 percent on the day before the election, and had reached 36 percent during the week before the election. Trump’s strong-approval rating has been slipping of late, and now stands at 33 percent.

 

Further, there is the “right track”/”wrong direction metric”:

 

In the week before the election of 2012, the ratio stood at 0.80. That was as high as it had  been since the beginning of Obama’s presidency, and a good omen for Obama’s re-election. The metric has swung wildly in recent weeks, and dropped to 0.63.

If these two indicators say anything about Trump’s re-election chances, he has a lot of work to do in the next year. But first, he must somehow stop the impeachment train, which at least a few GOP Congress-critters seem eager to join.

Note: The slight discrepancy in the horizontal scales of the two figures is caused by the frequency of the underlying statistics: daily in the case of the first figure; weekly in the case of the second one. Converting days to weeks (as is the case with the first figure) causes the slight discrepancy. Specifically, 366 days/7 days per week = 52.29 weeks and 365 days/7weeks = 52.14 weeks, not 52 weeks. Over a span of 4 years, there’s a difference of 0.71 week between the two methods.