GDP Trivia

Bearing in mind Arnold Kling’s reservations (and my own) about aggregate economic data, I will nevertheless entertain you with some trivial factoids on the occasion of the release of the 3rd quarter 2019 GDP estimate (advance estimate).

First, the post-World War II business-cycle record:

Graphically (with short cycles omitted):

The current cycle is the second-longest since the end of World War II, but also the least robust.

Note the large gap between the (low) peak growth rates experienced in recent cycles (purple, pale green, and red lines) and the (higher ones) experienced in earlier cycles. The peak for the current cycle (if you can call it a peak) occurred early (in the 5th quarter after the bottom of the Great Recession). Such a low peak so early in the cycle broke a pattern that had held since the end of World War II:

The red diamond represents the current cycle. Earlier cycles are represented by black dots, and the robust regression equation applies to those cycles.

I won’t be surprised if economists discover that the weakness of the current business cycle is due to Obama’s economic policies (and rhetoric), just as economists (unsurprisingly) discovered that FDR’s policies deepened and prolonged the Great Depression.