I discuss the Dark Side — the consequences of Democrat control of the White House and Congress — in this post.
Regarding the outcome of the presidential contest, I am following
three two indicators this year: White House Watch at Rasmussen Reports , the summary of two-way polls (i.e,, Trump vs. Biden) at RealClearPolitics, and the betting market at RealClearPolitics. [See this post for an explanation of the changes.]
In the graph below, only the RealClearPolitics (RCP) betting market reflects the perceived outcome of yesterday’s “debate” between Trump and Biden. And Biden seems to have come out ahead in that encounter. But the odds against Trump were slipping before the debate, which is consistent with the trend in the Rasmussen poll (which doesn’t reflect the debate).
The two-way RCP poll is (on average) several days out of date, but Biden has an edge there, too. [Ignore the blue line, which represents the RCP two-way poll.]
In sum, the tide is running against Trump, and I wouldn’t bet on him at this stage. It will take a big October surprise (e.g., indictment of high-level ex-FBI officials in Russiagate) to turn things around. As for the Senate, a tie looks possible at this point. But with Harris as vice president, the Democrats would effectively control the Senate even if it’s split 50-50.
The bottom line: Lovers of liberty had better prepare themselves for the real-world equivalent of Nineteen-Eighty Four.