Is the Vaccine Making a Difference?

Perhaps. In graph below I have plotted 7-day moving averages of the daily numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths. The plot of deaths is moved to the right by 24 days because the highest correlation between cases and deaths occurs with a 24-day lag from cases to deaths. Although the case rate began to decline in mid-January 2021, the death rate held steady through early March, and then began to drop only after about 10 percent of the populace had been fully vaccinated.

However, the leveling-off of death rate suggests that the vaccination rate is too low given (a) the more infectious nature of new strains of COVID-19 and (b) the rate at which personal interactions are rising.

But the COVID pandemic is not nearly as lethal as the Spanish flu, regardless of what the hand-wringing, lockdowining governors, mayors, and epidemiologists say.


Related reading:

PF Whalen, “Top 10 Absurdities of the COVID Pandemic“, Blue State Conservative, May 3, 2021

Philip W. Magness, “Imperial College Predicted Catastrophe in Every Country on Earth. Then the Models Failed.”, AIER, May 5, 2021