The Way to Look at Inflation

Lew Rockwell, touting the gold standard, plots the cumulative consumer price index on an arithmetic scale, thus making it seem as if inflation is rampant. It’s not.

The best way to depict the change of a cumulative quantity over time is to depict the quantity logarithmically. On a logarithmic scale, a change of “x” percent covers the same vertical distance, regardless of the base from which the change occurs. That is not so for an arithmetic scale, where a change of, say, 10 percent from 100 (10) looks much smaller than a change of 10 percent from 1,000 (100). If the figure of interest is the percentage change (as it is in the case of inflation), the use of an arithmetic scale is bound to overstate recent inflation, relative to inflation in earlier years.

Here’s a more realistic picture of inflation from 1913 to the present:

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) (U.S. city average, all items, 1982-84 = 100), available here.

Compared with the 1910s, 1940, and 1970s, inflation has been rather tame for the past 25 years.

UPDATE: Rockwell’s blogging colleague, Jeffrey Tucker, plots a measure of the money supply in the same, dishonest way: arithmetically.

A Concurring Opinion

The opinion is by Steve Boriss (The Future of News), and it’s about Cass Sunstein and his twisted view of the First Amendment.

I have similar things to say about Sunstein and “unfree speech.” Here I quote the gist of Sunstein’s argument for “unfree speech” (which he offers in the name of freedom, of course). And here I subject him to an (imaginary) interview about his proposal.

Political Calculus

Slice it any way you want…

Pct. of tax returns for 2005

No adjusted gross income……………..

1.3106

43.1

89.3

99.8

97.3

$1 under $5,000…………………………..

8.5407

$5,000 under $10,000…………………..

9.0154

$10,000 under $15,000…………………

8.6593

$15,000 under $20,000…………………

8.2804

$20,000 under $25,000…………………

7.2814

$25,000 under $30,000…………………

6.5029

46.2

$30,000 under $40,000…………………

10.3744

$40,000 under $50,000…………………

7.9023

$50,000 under $75,000…………………

13.6568

$75,000 under $100,000……………….

7.7769

$100,000 under $200,000……………..

8.0451

10.5

10.5

$200,000 under $500,000……………..

2.0375

2.6

$500,000 under $1,000,000…………..

0.3903

$1,000,000 under $1,500,000………..

0.0952

0.2

0.2

0.2

$1,500,000 under $2,000,000………..

0.0004

$2,000,000 under $5,000,000………..

0.0626

$5,000,000 under $10,000,000………

0.0019

$10,000,000 or more…………………….

0.0011

…it spells envy at the low end and political perversity at the high end.

(Extracted and derived from this IRS table. More here and here.)

Another One Goes off the Blogroll

This is paranoid bull-crap. Any blog that strays far from reality — as Agoraphilia has, too many times — cannot stay on my blogroll. Bye-bye.

"The War": A Second Reaction

I have now watched the first three episodes of Ken Burns’s The War. The second episode reinforced my reaction to the first episode:

War is not glorified (nor should it be), but Burns makes a strong case that war can be necessary — contrary to the anti-war mantra that substitutes for thought on the Left.

The War illustrates that, however necessary a war, victory may be attainable only at a very high price. (That illustration is especially valuable for the generations whose only war was the seemingly quick-and-easy Gulf War of 1990-91.) The War also makes the case, graphically, that there can be no alternative but to pay that very high price when one is faced with brutal, fanatical enemies.

The third episode further supports that view. But the third episode also spends a lot of time on issues with racial dimensions; specifically:

  • “the forced removal and internment of approximately 120,000 Japanese and Japanese Americans (62 percent of whom were United States citizens) from the West Coast of the United States during World War II.” (Wikipedia)
  • government-enforced racial segregation in the armed forces (and, sometimes, among workers in defense plants), against a backdrop of racial tension.

The internment of Japanese and Japanese Americans remains controversial. I have no doubt that racial hatred (inflamed by the attack on Pearl Harbor) enabled the decision to remove Japanese nationals and persons of Japanese origin and descent from the West Coast. But The War neglects to mention the military considerations that justified the action. (See these three posts, for example.) The War, in other words, engages in the kind of second-guessing eschewed by the U.S. Supreme Court when it opined in the case of Korematsu v. United States (1944). Justice Black, writing for the 6-3 majority:

To cast this case into outlines of racial prejudice, without reference to the real military dangers which were presented, merely confuses the issue. Korematsu was not excluded from the Military Area because of hostility to him or his race. He was excluded because we are at war with the Japanese Empire, because the properly constituted military authorities feared an invasion of our West Coast and felt constrained to take proper security measures, because they decided that the military urgency of the situation demanded that all citizens of Japanese ancestry be segregated from the West Coast temporarily, and finally, because Congress, reposing its confidence in this time of war in our military leaders — as inevitably it must — determined that they should have the power to do just this. There was evidence of disloyalty on the part of some, the military authorities considered that the need for action was great, and time was short. We cannot — by availing ourselves of the calm perspective of hindsight — now say that at that time these actions were unjustified.

It is right to give time to the internment; it was a significant (and temporary) event arising out of our prosecution of the war. But it is wrong to give a one-sided presentation of that event.

The segregation of blacks — and black-white conflict — on the other hand, were nothing new in America. Racial segregation had been (and would remain, for some years), a government policy. Would it have been too much to expect a government that was battling ferocious enemies abroad to take time out to desegregate the armed forces, desegregate civilian life, and deal with the resulting racial conflict (of which there was already enough)? The short answer is “yes.” That is not to excuse government-sponsored and government-enforced segregation. It is simply to call, once again, for perspective and balance, which The War does not offer. A viewer lacking historical perspective (and there are many out there) might well conclude that segregation and racial tension arose from the war effort.

The War redeems itself, to some extent, by giving expression (perhaps too subtly) to these truths: However imperfect the United States of 1941-45, it was far more perfect than its militaristic, inhumane enemies. Americans of Japanese and African descent could hope for (and would realize) a better future here; they could have had no such hope for a world dominated by Japan and Germany.

Ahead of His Time

The problem that faces us today … is due to the inherent contradictions of an abnormal state of culture. The natural tendency … is for … society to give itself up passively to the machinery of modern cosmopolitan life. But this is no solution. It leads merely to the breaking down of the old structure of society and the loss of the traditional moral standards without creating anything which can take their place.

As in the decline of the ancient world, the family is steadily losing its form and its social significance, and the state absorbs more and more of the life of its members. The home is no longer a centre of social activity; it has become merely a sleeping place for a number of independent wage-earners. The functions which were formerly fulfilled by the head of the family are now being taken over by the state, which educates the children and takes the responsibility for their maintenance and health.

From Christopher Dawson’s essay, “The Patriarchal Family in History” (1933), collected in The Dynamics of World History (1956). (Paragraph break added: LC.)

Let us hope for an incremental bit of progress on one front: parental choice in the schooling of children. (By progress, of course, I don’t mean the kind of “progress” sought by regressive “progressives,” who would have us and our progeny bow to the almighty state — as long as they control it.)

Evolution as God?

In a lot of ways, evolution is like unto theology. “Gods are ontologically distinct from creatures,” said Damien Broderick, “or they’re not worth the paper they’re written on.” And indeed, the Shaper of Life is not itself a creature. Evolution is bodiless, like the Judeo-Christian deity. Omnipresent in Nature, immanent in the fall of every leaf. Vast as a planet’s surface. Billions of years old. Itself unmade, arising naturally from the structure of physics. Doesn’t that all sound like something that might have been said about God? (Eliezer Yudkowsky, “An Alien God,” Overcoming Bias)

Whence the stuff of which evolution was made, and the structure (i.e., laws) of physics that enabled it to be made? Answer that, Mr. Yudkowsky, before you get too invested in the claim that “Science has already discovered the sort-of-godlike maker of humans – but it wasn’t what the religionists wanted to hear.”

Yudkowsky wants to believe in only the first of four logical possibilities about the Universe:

1. Everything just is — without an outside cause or overarching design. Scientists claim to find “laws” governing the behavior of matter, energy, time, and space. But such laws only partly explain the universe; there is no grand unifying theory of everything. And those laws are subject to change as science unveils new aspects of matter, energy, time, and space — as it does continuously.

He ought to consider the other possibilities, including this one:

4. There is an external force or consciousness that brought everything into being. That force or consciousness may merely have set things in motion, or it may play a continuing role in some or all aspects of existence. The intentions of the external force or consciousness are known to religionists, by revelation and/or faith; science is inadequate to fathom those intentions or to prove that the universe conforms to an underlying “design.” Those who reject this fourth possibility as “unscientific” — that is, most scientists as well as the typical libertarian/Objectivist — can do so only by accepting one of the equally unscientific (i.e., untestable) possibilities outlined above.

In a sequel (“The Wonder of Evolution“) Yudkowsky reveals (in so many words) his fear of considering that fourth possibility. He does us a service, however, by adverting to a sentence from Thomas Henry Huxley‘s “Ethics and Evolution” (The Romanes Lecture, Oxford University 1893). Here is the sentence in full:

Let us understand, once for all, that the ethical progress of society depends, not on imitating the cosmic process, still less in running away from it, but in combating it.

Elsewhere, we find this commentary on Huxley’s observation:

As his critics were not slow to point out, however, Huxley’s supposition that man can combat cosmic processes comes strangely from a Darwinian. For Darwin’s principal thesis is that man is part of Nature and subject, therefore, to its “cosmic forces,” in no sense standing outside or above them.

The subsequent explanation — that ethical progress is part and parcel of evolution — leads to this question: How do we “know” that we should move in a certain direction, ethically, in order to be more nearly perfect? Assigning evolution the role of judge is tantamount to assuming the answer, namely, “evolution is all.” But that cannot be the answer (except in the mind of an obdurate atheist), because there remains this scientifically unanswerable question: Whence the stuff of which evolution was made, and the laws (structure) of physics that enabled it to be made?

If you want to disbelieve in the fourth possibility, just say so. But don’t cloak your disbelief in the language of science, for science can neither prove nor disprove any of the possibilities.

Related posts:
Atheism, Religion, and Science
The Limits of Science
Beware of Irrational Atheism
Religion and Personal Responsibility
Science, Evolution, Religion, and Liberty
Science, Logic, and God
Capitalism, Liberty, and Christianity
Debunking “Scientific Objectivity”
The Big Bang and Atheism
The Universe . . . Four Possibilities
Einstein, Science, and God
Atheism, Religion, and Science Redux
Religion as Beneficial Evolutionary Adaptation
A Reminder
Collegiate Crap-ola
A Non-Believer Defends Religion

And Your Point Is?

Jim Harper (Cato-at-Liberty) says:

The story [this story: LC] says that unlicensed driving dropped by a third when New Mexico de-linked driver licensing and immigration status. Actually, unlicensed driving dropped by two thirds, from 33% to 11%, lower than the national average.

Which means that a lot of illegal aliens are driving legally in New Mexico. Is that supposed to be a good thing?

Here We Go Again

David Friedman, in “When Is a War Not a War?,” writes:

The problem is that the “War on Terror” is at least in part a metaphor. It is in some ways more like the War on Drugs or the War on Poverty, a project given emotional force by analogizing it to a military conflict, than it is like WW II or the Korean War.

Suppose the President declared a War on Crime–as, for all I know, some President at some point has. Is he then entitled to arrest people he claims are criminals and hold them without trial for an indefinite period of time–as prisoners of war?

The analogy is not perfect. The attack on the World Trade Center was more like an act of war than it was like a bank robbery. But it was less like an act of war than the Pearl Harbor attack was, not only because the targets were not primarily military but because the attackers were not agents of a hostile state. The War on Terror is not as metaphorical as the War on Drugs. But it fits the pattern of war as usually and literally understood poorly enough to make a policy of taking people prisoners and holding them without trial until the war is over at best problematical.

Friedman tries to equate war-fighting and crime-fighting by relying on the surface similarity between the phrases “war on terror” and “war on crime.” But a war on crime, if such there were such a thing, would exercise an entirely separate and distinct aspect of the president’s constitutional authority than does the War on Terror. The president cannot, under the rubric of a war on crime, “arrest people he claims are criminals and hold them without trial for an indefinite period of time–as prisoners of war.” A president might well announce a war on crime,” but it would not be a war (in the constitutional sense), it would an exercise of executive authority conducted by the non-military apparatus of government within constitutional bounds, that is, respecting Amendments I, II, IV, V, VI, and VIII of the Bill of Rights. The Framers of the Constitution understood the difference between war and crime (even if Friedman does not), and did a very nice job of distinguishing them in the Constitution.

The War on Terror is a real war, given that its components (e.g., operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, clandestine operations elsewhere overseas) are conducted under authority granted by Congress (i.e., the functional equivalent of a declaration of war). The president, as long as he acts under that authority — and as long as the U.S. Supreme Court sides with his interpretation of that authority — is conducting a war, not fighting crime.

The president’s authority to conduct the various components of the War on Terror was granted as a result of the attack on the World Trade Center. Friedman is playing word games when he suggests that that attack “was less like an act of war than the attack on Pearl Harbor, not only because the targets were not primarily military but because the attackers were not agents of a hostile state.” Since when do attacks on civilians not count as acts of war? (The dropping of A-bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, for example were ultimate acts of war, aimed at forcing Japan’s surrender.) Since when do anarcho-libertarians (as is Friedman) view acts by non-state entities as somehow lacking authority because they were not explicitly authorized by a state (as far as we know). Is cold-blooded murder somehow less of a crime if it is committed by an anarchist gypsy, as opposed to a fascist functionary, for example?

Friedman seems dismayed by the prospect of enemy combatants being held indefinitely because there might be no end to the War on Terror. But why the dismay, if they are enemies? Friedman would answer: Because they have not been tried and found to be enemies. Friedman (along with his fellow anarchos and the anti-war Left) argues from one erroneous premise (the War on Terror isn’t really a war) to another (therefore, it must be an exercise in criminal justice), in order to reach a desired conclusion (prisoners in the War on Terror are entitled to the protections of the Bill of Rights). This they do, even though those prisoners are enemies who would spit on the Bill of Rights.

What to do about those enemy combatants who might be held indefinitely? My take: If military necessity dictates indefinite detention, so be it. The alternative? Take no prisoners.

War and justice are two different things, as the Framers wisely understood, and as Friedman — and his fellow anarchos and their brethren on the Left — cannot seem to understand. Wars are fought to protect the rights of U.S. citizens, not to strengthen our enemies in their quest to harm U.S. citizens and their legitimate economic interests.

We do not live in “one world.” And even if everyone in the world were endowed with equal rights (a concept that I reject), no one would be entitled to attack what we in the U.S. enjoy. To rephrase what I wrote here,

the sovereignty of the United States is inseparable from the benefits afforded Americans by the U.S. Constitution, most notably the enjoyment of civil liberties, the blessings of more-or-less free markets and free trade, and the protections of a common defense. To cede sovereignty — by allowing other nations a say in our laws or by treating our enemies as equals under the Constitution — is to risk the loss of the benefits we derive from the Constitution. That is why we must always be cautious in our commitments to international organizations and laws, and resist the temptation to treat enemies as if they were entitled to the very benefits they would deny us.

“War” is not “justice”; “nationalism” is not a dirty word.

"The War": An Initial Reaction

I taped Ken Burns’s The War for later viewing. Later is now; I watched the first episode last night.

My initial reaction: War is not glorified (nor should it be), but Burns makes a strong case that war can be necessary — contrary to the anti-war mantra that substitutes for thought on the Left.

The War illustrates that, however necessary a war, victory may be attainable only at a very high price. (That illustration is especially valuable for the generations whose only war was the seemingly quick-and-easy Gulf War of 1990-91.) The War also makes the case, graphically, that there can be no alternative but to pay that very high price when one is faced with brutal, fanatical enemies.

The series could not have been aired at a better time. Perhaps it has (in a small way) contributed to Americans’ somewhat more optimistic views about the war on terror and the war in Iraq. The main reason for optimism, of course, is the impression that the anti-insurgency campaign is succeeding.

More later.