New items are added occasionally to the lists of related reading and related posts at the bottom of this page.
The GISS set comprises surface thermometer records going back to January 1880. It takes a lot a massaging to construct a monthly time series of “global” temperatures that spans 137 years, with spotty coverage of Earth’s surface (even now), and wide variability in site conditions, among other problems that can occur in a not-truly-global or systematically controlled network of thermometers over the span of 137 years. There’s the further issue of data manipulation, the most recent example of which was the erasure of the pause that had lasted for almost 19 years.
The UAH database goes back to December 1978, and consists of readings obtained by a system of satellites. A satellite-based system has obvious advantages over a surface-based system, if one’s objective is to obtain accurate and consistent estimates of Earth’s atmospheric temperature.
There are other databases, including those produced by RSS (satellite-based) and HadCRUT (surface-based). But the point of this post is to compare GISS records with those a satellite-based system, and I have chosen the GISS and UAH systems for that purpose.
In Figure 1 you can see that despite efforts to hide the decline — a cooling trend from about 1940 to the late 1970s — GISS could only muster a long pause in the rise of its global temperature estimates.
(I used December 1978 as the “zero” point for ease of comparison with Figure 2.)
Now look at UAH vs. GISS for the span covered by UAH, namely, December 1978 to the present:
The pause, according to RSS, extended from February 1997 to November 2015. This agrees with the UAH data for that period, which show a flat trend; whereas, the GISS data for that period show a rising trend. Taking the UAH slope as the correct one, it seems that GISS overstates the slope of the pause by 0.0011 degree C per month. Subtracting that overstatement from the GISS coefficient for the entire period gives a new GISS slope of 0.0007 degree C per month, which is close to the UAH slope of 0.001 degree C per month. It is also the same as the GISS slope for 1880-1937 (see Figure 1).
I therefore conclude the following: GISS has been doctored not only to hide the decline from about 1940 to the late 1970s and the pause from 1997 to 2015, but also to exaggerate the rise from the late 1970s to the present.
What is really going on? The recent rise in temperature has been ripped out of context. This is from a post by Dr. Tim Ball (figures re-numbered to avoid confusion):
Recent discussion about record weather events, such as the warmest year on record, is a totally misleading and scientifically useless exercise. This is especially true when restricted to the instrumental record that covers about 25% of the globe for at most 120 years. The age of the Earth is approximately 4.54 billion years, so the sample size is 0.000002643172%. Discussing the significance of anything in a 120-year record plays directly into the hands of those trying to say that the last 120-years climate is abnormal and all due to human activity. It is done purely for political propaganda, to narrow people’s attention and to generate fear.
The misdirection is based on the false assumption that only a few variables and mechanisms are important in climate change, and they remain constant over the 4.54 billion years. It began with the assumption of the solar constant from the Sun that astronomers define as a medium-sized variable star. The AGW proponents successfully got the world focused on CO2 [emphasis added], which is just 0.04% of the total atmospheric gases and varies considerably spatially and temporally…. [I]t is like determining the character, structure, and behavior of a human by measuring one wart on the left arm. In fact, they are only looking at one cell of that wart….
Two major themes of the AGW claims are that temperature change is greater and more rapid than at any time in the past. This is false, as a cursory look at any longer record demonstrates…. The Antarctic and Greenland ice core records both illustrate the extent of temperature change in short time periods. Figure [I] shows a modified Antarctic ice core record.
Figure [I] (Original Source SPPI.org no longer available)
The total temperature range is approximately 12°C (-9°C to +3°C). The variability is dramatic even though a 70–year smoothing average was applied. The diagram compares the peak temperatures in the current interglacial with those of the four previous interglacials. The horizontal scale on the x-axis is too small to identify even the length of the instrumental record.
Steve Goreham shows how small a portion it is in this diagram of the last 10,000 years (Figure [II]).
Another graph shows the same period, the Holocene Optimum, in a different form (Figure [III]).
(Read the whole thing.)
The null hypothesis about “climate change” is that recent warming, whatever its true extent, is of a piece with natural variations in Earth’s temperature. I have yet to read anything that refutes the null hypothesis. A lot of what has been written seems, at first glance, to do so. But it does not do so. It assumes, or aims to prove, a causal connection between the steady rise in atmospheric CO2 that has accompanied the industrialization and mechanization of the world and the coincidental — and halting — rise in the temperature record since Earth began to emerge from the Little Ice Age. Thus the inability of simplistic climate models, which are heavy on CO2 effects, to accurately “hindcast” actual temperature changes, that is, to replicate them from the vantage point of the present.
But most of the public “knows” only the scare story told by the red line in Figure 1. There’s no context. The explanation (“CO2 bad”) is superficial and misleading. But it sells the story that pseudo-scientists and politicians like James Hansen, Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann, and Al Gore. want to sell. And which is sold with the eager assistance of the pro-big-government media outlets in the U.S. (i.e., most of them). It sells the story that leftists want to sell because it supports their need to control the lives of others through the agency of government.
TAKING A STEP BACK — “GLOBAL” TEMPERATURES IN PERSPECTIVE
The “official” GISS set of temperature records (here) comprises surface thermometer records going back to January 1880. It takes a lot of massaging to construct a monthly time series of “global” temperatures that spans 137 years, with spotty coverage of Earth’s surface (even now), and wide variability in site conditions. There’s the further issue of data manipulation, the most recent example of which was the erasure of the pause that had lasted for almost 19 years.
Taking the GISS numbers at face value, for the moment, what do they suggest about changes in Earth’s temperature (whatever that means)? Almost nothing, when viewed in proper perspective. When viewed, that is, in terms of absolute (Kelvin) temperature readings:
Yes, there’s an upward trend of about 1 degree K (or 1 degree C) per century. And, yes, it’s statistically significant. But the statistical significance is due to the strong correlation between time and temperature. The trend doesn’t explain why Earth’s temperature is what it is. Nor does it explain why it has varied over the past 137 years.
Those variations have been minute. The maximum of 288.79K is only 1.1 percent higher than the minimum of 285.68K. This minuscule difference must be swamped by measurement and estimation errors. It is credible that Earth’s average temperature — had it been measured consistently over the past 137 years — would have changed less (or more) than the GISS record indicates. It is credible that the observed uptrend is an artifact of selective observation and interpretation. It has become warmer over the past 30 years where I live, for example, but the warming is explained entirely by the urban heat-island effect.
A proper explanation of the minute variations in Earth’s temperature — if real — would incorporate all of the factors that influence Earth’s temperature, starting from Earth’s core and going out into the far reaches of the universe (e.g., to account for the influence of cosmic radiation). Among many things, a proper explanation would encompass the massive upwelling of CO2 from ocean currents, changes in Earth’s core, movements of tectonic plates (including related volcanic activity), effects of the expansion of the universe, the position and movement of the Milky Way, the position and movement of the Solar System, and the position and movement of Earth within the Solar System, and variations in Earth’s magnetic field.
But global climate models (or GCMs) focus entirely on temperature changes and are limited to superficial factors that are hypothesized to cause those changes — but only those factors that can be measured or estimated by complex and often-dubious methods (e.g., the effects of cloud cover). This is equivalent to searching for one’s car keys under a street lamp because that’s where the light is, even though the car keys were dropped 100 feet away.
The deeper and probably more relevant causes of Earth’s ambient temperature are to be found, I believe, in Earth’s core, magma, plate dynamics, ocean currents and composition, magnetic field, exposure to cosmic radiation, and dozens of other things that — to my knowledge — are ignored by GCMs. Moreover, the complexity of the interactions of such factors, and others that are usually included in GCMs, cannot possibly be modeled.
- Changes in Earth’s temperature are unknown with any degree of confidence.
- At best, the changes are minute.
- The causes of the changes are unknown.
- It is impossible to model Earth’s temperature or changes in it.
It is therefore impossible to say whether and to what extent human activity causes Earth’s temperature to change.
It is further impossible for a group of scientists, legislators, or opinionizers to say whether Earth’s warming — if indeed it is warming — is a bad thing. It is a good thing for agriculture — up to some point. It’s a good thing for human comfort (thus the flight of “snowbirds”) — up to some point. But for reasons given above, it’s truly unknown whether those points, and others, will be reached. But as they are, human beings will adapt, as they have in the past — unless their ability to adapt is preempted or hampered by costly regulations and counterproductive resource reallocations.
Science is not on the side of the doom-sayers, no matter how loudly they protest that it is.
Related reading (listed chronologically):
Michael Crichton, “Aliens Cause Global Warming“, CalTech Michelin Lecture, January 17, 2003
Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, “Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series“, Energy and Environment, Vol. 14, No. 6, 2003
Freeman Dyson, “Heretical Thoughts about Science and Society“, from Many Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the Universe, University of Virgina Press, 2007
James A. Peden (editor), “The Great Global Warming Hoax?“, Middlebury Community Network, ca. 2007
Christopher Monckton of Brenchely, “‘Consensus’?, What ‘Consensus’?: Among Climate Scientists the Debate Is Not Over“, Science and Public Policy Institute, July 2007
Roy W. Spencer, “Warming in Last 50 Years Predicted by Natural Climate Cycles“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., June 6, 2010
Anthony Watts, “Surface Temperature Uncertainty Quantified“, Watts Up With That?, January 20, 2011
Anthony Watts, “The Metrology of Thermometers“, Watts Up With That?, January 22, 2011
Andy May, “Climate and Human Civilization over the Last 18,000 Years“, Watts Up With That?, November 17, 2013
Anthony Watts, “Inconvenient Study: Arctic Was Warmer than the Present during the Medieval Warm Period“, Watts Up With That?, January 18, 2014
Ron Clutz, “Temperatures According to Climate Models“, Science Matters, March 24, 2015
Anthony Watts et al., “Comparison of Temperature Trends Using an Unperturbed Subset of the U.S. Historical Climatology Network“, Heartland Institute, December 17, 2015
Dr. Tim Ball, “Long-Term Climate Change: What Is a Reasonable Sample Size?“, Watts Up With That?, February 7, 2016
The Global Warming Policy Foundation, Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method, 2017
John Mauer, “Through the Looking Glass with NASA GISS“, Watts Up With That?, February 22, 2017
David R. Henderson and Charles L. Hooper, “Flawed Climate Models“, Hoover Institution, April 4, 2017
Mike Jonas, “Indirect Effects of the Sun on Earth’s Climate“, Watts Up With That?, June 10, 2017
George White, “A Consensus of Convenience“, Watts Up With That?, August 20, 2017
Jennifer Marohasy, “Most of the Recent Warming Could be Natural“, Jennifer Marohasy, August 21, 2017
Richard Taylor, “News from Vostok Ice Cores“, Watts Up With That?, October 8, 2017
Ian Flanigan, “Core of Climate Science Is in the Real-World Data“, Watts Up With That?, November 22, 2017
Eric Worrall, “Claim: Climate Driven Human Extinction ‘in the Coming Decades or Sooner’“, Watts Up With That?, November 23, 2017
Rupert Darwall, “A Veneer of Certainty Stoking Climate Alarm“, Competitive Enterprise Institute, November 28, 2017
Anthony Watts, “New Paper: The Missing Link between Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate Change on Earth“, Watts Up With That?, December 19, 2017
David Archibald, “Baby It’s Cold Outside – Evidence of Solar Cycle Affecting Earth’s Cloud Cover“, Watts Up With That?, December 31, 2017
Anthony Watts, “‘Flaws in Applying Greenhouse Warming to Climate Variability’: A Post-Mortem Paper by Dr. Bill Gray“, Watts Up With That?, January 18, 2018
Dale Leuck, “Fake News and 2017 Near-Record Temperatures“, Watts Up With That?, January 21, 2017
Christopher Booker, Global Warming: A Case Study in Groupthink, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, February 2018
Will Happer, “Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?“, PragerU, February 5, 2018
Anthony Watts, “A Never-Before Western-Published Paleoclimate Study from China Suggests Warmer Temperatures in the Past“, Watts Up With That?, February 11, 2018
H. Sterling Burnett, “Alarmist Climate Researchers Abandon Scientific Method“, The American Spectator, February 27, 2018
Anthony Watts, “Alarmists Throw In the Towel on Poor Quality Surface Temperature Data – Pitch for a New Global Climate Reference Network“, Watts Up With That?, March 2, 2018
David Archibald, “The Modern Warm Period Delimited“, Watts Up With That?, March 10, 2018 (This piece offers further evidence — not put forward as “proof” — of the influence of solar flux on cosmic radiation, which affects cloud formation and thus climate. The time scale analyzed is far longer than the 25-year period in which the coincidence of rising CO2 emissions and temperatures led many climate scientists — and many more non-scientists — to become
“global warming” “climate change” “climate catastrophe” hysterics.)
Anthony Watts, “New Paper Tries to Disentangle Global Warming from Natural Ocean Variations“, Watts Up With That?, March 15, 2018
Anthony Watts, “Climate Scientist Admits Embarrassment over Future Climate Uncertainty“, Watts Up With That?, March 16, 2018
Tony Heller, “NOAA Data Tampering Approaching 2.5 Degrees“, The Deplorable Climate Science Blog, March 20, 2018
Renee Hannon, “Modern Warming – Climate Variability or Climate Change?“, Watts Up With That?, March 28, 2018
David Archibald, “It Was the Sun All Along — So Say the Bulgarians“, Watts Up With That?, April 9, 2018
Mark Fife, “Reconstructing a Temperature History Using Complete and Partial Data“, Watts Up With That?, April 19, 2018
Jamal Munshi, “The Charney Sensitivity of Homicides to Atmospheric CO2: A Parody“, Watts Up With That?, April 20, 2018
Peter L. Ward, “Ozone Depletion, Not Greenhouse Gases Cause for Global Warming, Says Researcher“, R&D Magazine, April 20, 2018 (It makes as much sense, if not more sense, than global climate models, which only predict the past.)
Nic Lewis, “Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity“, Climate Etc., April 24, 2018
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, “Did Official Climatology Know Its Predictions Were Nonsense?“, Watts Up With That?, April 24, 2018
Dr. Willie Soon, Dr. Ronan Connolly, and Dr. Michael Connolly, “New Paper Shows Issues with Temperature Records: Comparing the Current and Early 20th Century Warm Periods in China“, Watts Up With That?, June 13, 2018
Wim Röst, “How Earth Became a Hothouse: By H2O“, Watts Up With That?, June 15, 2018
Dr. Tim Ball, “Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) a Premeditated Crime Against Science Justified with Artificial Certainty“, Watts Up With That?, June 18, 2018
Willis Eschenbach, “Dr. Hansen’s Statistics“, Watts Up With That?, June 30, 2018
Clyde Spencer, “Analysis of James Hansen’s 1988 Prediction of Global Temperatures for the Past 30 Years“, Watts Up With That?, June 30, 2018
Ross McKitrick and John Christy, “The Hansen Forecasts 30 Years Later“, Climate Etc., July 3, 2018
Viv Forbes, “Watching Weather Waves, Missing Climate Tides“, American Thinker, July 10, 2018
Dr. Tim Ball, “The Heartbeat of the Deep State: Climate, Corruption, and Lack of Accountability“, Watts Up With That?, July 28, 2018
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, “Climatology’s Startling Error — An Update“, Watts Up With That?, July 30, 2018
Francis Menton, “How Do You Tell If the Earth’s Climate System ‘Is Warming’?”, Manhattan Contrarian, August 9, 2018
Kenneth Richard, “AGW Gatekeepers Censor The CO2-Climate Debate By Refusing To Publish Author’s Response To Criticism“, NoTricksZone, August 27, 2018
Javier, “What Is Warming the Earth?“, Watts Up With That?, August 28, 2018
Andy May, “The Great Climate Change Debate: William Happer v. David Karoly“, Watts Up With That?, September 1-3, 2018
Dr. Tim Ball, “Empirical Evidence Shows Temperature Increases Before CO2 Increase in ALL Records”, Watts Up With That?, September 9, 2018
John Hinderaker, “Climate Alarmism Fails the Test of Observation“, Power Line, September 17, 2018
Dr. Tim Ball, “What Is the Meaningful 97% in the Climate Debate?“, Watts Up With That?, September 29, 2018
Anthony Watts: “BOMBSHELL: Audit of Global Warming Data Finds It Riddled with Errors“, Watts Up With That?, October 7, 2018
Dr. Tim Ball, “Climate Research in the IPCC Wonderland: What Are We Really Measuring and Why Are We Wasting All That Money?“, Watt’s Up With That?, October 14, 2018
Steven Hayward, “The Oceans Are Boiling! Oh, Wait — Never Mind“, Power Line, November 14, 2018
Andy West, “The Catastrophe Narrative“, Climate Etc., November 14, 2018
Dr. Tim Ball, “In the Climate Deception Game Where the End Justifies the Means, the Objective is the Headline“, Watts Up With That?, November 17, 2018
Willis Eschenbach, “The Picasso Problem“, Watts Up With That?, November 17, 2018
Nic Lewis, “Resplandy et al.Part 3: Statistical Issues and Findings Regarding the Authors’ Planned Correction“, Climate Etc., November 17, 2018
Bob Tisdale, “What Was Earth’s Preindustrial Global Mean Surface Temperature, In Absolute Terms Not Anomalies, Supposed to Be?“, Watts Up With That?, November 27, 2018
Steve Milloy, “Fossil Algae Reveals CO2 at 1,000 PPM“, Junk Science (though not in this case), November 28, 2018
Mark Fife, “Long Term Temperature Records Contradict GISS Temperature Record“, Watts Up With That?, November 30, 2018
Dr. Jeffrey Foss, “Dr. Willie Soon and the Climate Apocalypse“, Watts Up With That?, December 2, 2018
Geoffrey H. Sherrington, “The Climate Sciences Use of the Urban Heat Island Effect Is Pathetic and Misleading“, Watts Up With That?, December 20, 2018
Dr. Tim Ball, “A History of Dr. Ben Santer and His IPCC ‘Trick’“, Watts Up With That?, January 24, 2019
Mike Shedlock, “Amidst Global Warming Hysteria NASA Expects Global Cooling“, Townhall, January 30, 2019
Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris, “Cold Outbreaks Are Not Caused by Global Warming“, Watts Up With That?, February 19, 2019
Francis Menton, “The Greatest Scientific Fraud of All Time — Part XXI“, Manhattan Contrarian, February 24, 2019
Francis Menton, “The Greatest Scientific Fraud of All Time — Part XXII“, Manhattan Contrarian, February 26, 2019
Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D., “New Santer Study: 97% Consensus is now 99.99997%“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., February 27, 2019
Joe Bastardi, “Climate Crisis? Four Major Metrics That Say Otherwise“, The Patriot Post, March 13, 2019
David Archibald, “Climate: In Case You Were Wondering“, Watts Up With That?, March 27, 2019
Chris Martz, “Climate Bullying“, Chris Martz Weather, March 29, 2019
Dr. Tim Ball, “Time to Straighten out Damage from the Big Lie of Global Warming Starting With Voltaire’s Admonition“, Watts Up With That?, March 30, 2019
Barry Brill, “Methane Warming Exaggerated by 400 Percent“, Watts Up With That?, March 30, 2019
Anthony Watts, “New Paper: Urbanization Has Increased Minimum Temperatures 1.7K in the UK“, Watts Up With That?, March 31, 2019
Anthony Watts, “BIG NEWS — Verified by NOAA — Poor Weather Station Siting Leads to Artificial Long Term Warming“, Watts Up With That?, May 3, 2019
H. Sterling Burnett, “Warming Temperature Measurements Polluted by Bad Data, Research Confirms“, Watts Up With That?, May 20, 2019
Dr. Tim Ball, “Why Politicians Who Don’t Understand the Science of Global Warming Don’t Need to Act“, Watts Up With That?, June 26, 2019
Francis Menton, “Things Keep Getting Worse for the Fake ‘Science” of Human-Caused Global Warming“, Manhattan Contrarian, July 12, 2019
Francis Menton, “You Don’t Need to Be a Scientist to Know That Global Warming Alarm “Science” is Fake“, Manhattan Contrarian, July 15, 2019
Francis Menton, “The Greatest Scientific Fraud of All Time — Part XXIV“, Manhattan Contrarian, August 14, 2019
Judith Curry, “Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?“, Climate Forecast Applications Network, August 20, 2019
Roy W. Spencer, “How the Media Help to Destroy Rational Climate Debate“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., August 25, 2019
Allan M.R. McRae, “The Next Big Extinction Event Will Not Be Global Warming — It Will Be Global Cooling“, Watts Up With That?, September 1, 2019
Roy Spencer, “The Faith Component of Global Warming Predictions“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., September 8, 2019
Pat Frank, “Why Roy Spencer’s Criticism is Wrong“, Watts Up With That?, October 12, 2019
Allan MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, “The Real Climate Crisis Is Not Global Warming, It Is Cooling, And It May Have Already Started“, Watts Up With That?, October 27, 2019
Dagfinn Reiersøl, “Climate Change — Assessing the Worst Case Scenario“, Quillette, November 7, 2019
Judith Curry, “Legacy of Climategate — 10 Years Later“, Climate Etc., November 12, 2019
Thomas J. Bjorklund, “170 Years of Earth Surface Temperature Data Show No Evidence of Significant Warming“, Watts Up With That?, November 14, 2019
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, “Bush Bull“, Watts Up With That?, January 5, 2020 (about the bushfires in Australia and much more)
Reneee Hannon, “Greenland Ice Core CO2 Concentrations Deserve Reconsideration“, Watts Up With That?, January 7, 2020
Frank Bosse, “Climate Sensitivity in Light of the Latest Energy Imbalance Evidence“, Climate Etc., January 10, 2020
Christopher Monckton of Brenchly, “Paper Praising Models’ Predictions Proves They Greatly Exaggerate“, Watts Up With That?, January 12, 2020
Roy W. Spencer, “Weak El Nino Conditions Help Explain Recent Global Warmth“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., January 13, 2020
Roy W. Spencer, “1D Model of Global SST Shows 40% of Warming Since 1979 Due to Early Volcanic Cooling“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., January 14, 2020
Willis Eschenbach, “The Megacities Are Cooking“, Watts Up With That?, January 16, 2020
Willis Eschenbach, “Gavin’s Falsifiable Science“, Watts Up With That?, January 18, 2020
Willis Eschenbach, “A Surfeit of Temperatures“, Watts Up With That?, January 19, 2020
Roy W. Spencer, “Nature Has Been Removing CO2 4X Faster Than IPCC Models“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., February 5, 2020 (but see “Corrected RCP Scenario Removal Fractions“, February 6, 2020)
Jennifer Marohasy, “Cooling the Past: Made Easy for Paul Barry“, Jennifer Marohasy (blog), February 6, 2020
Eric Worrall, “Study: High End Model Climate Sensitivities Not Supported by Paleo Evidence“, Watts Up With That?, May 2, 2020
Geoff Sherrington, “The Global CO2 Lockdown Problem“, Watts Up With That?, May 22, 2020
Roy W. Spencer, “COVID-19 Global Economic Downturn not Affecting CO2 Rise: May 2020 Update“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., June 5, 2020
Dave Middleton, “Carbon Dioxide Level Unprecedented in 15 MY… More Evidence It’s Not the Climate Control Knob!“, Watts Up With That?, July 10, 2020
Francis Menton, “The Greatest Scientific Fraud of All Time — Part XXVII“, Manhattan Contrarian, October 19, 2020
Andy May, “The Paper That Blew It Up“, Watts Up With That?, November 14, 2020
Andy May, “The U.S. National Temperature Index, Is It Based on Data? Or Corrections?“, Watts Up With That?, November 25, 2020
Anthony Watts, “BOMBSHELL: U.N. Admits Admission Reductions Have Been Futile in War on Climate Change“, ClimateRealism, November 30, 2020
H. Sterling Burnett, “New Paleoclimatology Finding Shows Earth’s Climate Was Typically Warmer than Today“, Watts Up With That?, December 2, 2020
Anthony Watts, “New Climate Theory — Jupiter Herding Micrometers Towards Earth?“, Watts Up With That?, December 5, 2020
David Middleton, “CO2 Coalition: ‘The Global Mean Temperature Anomaly Record How it works and why it is misleading’“, Watts Up With That?, December 9, 2020
Neil L. Frank, “How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season?“, Watts Up With That?, December 11, 2020
P. Gosselin, “Dozens Of Scientists Reveal Most Of The Planet Is COLDER TODAY Than Most Of Past 8000 Years“, Climate Depot, December 18, 2020
H. Sterling Burnett, “No, Weather Channel, 2020 Did Not Bring Unprecedented Climate Disasters“, ClimateRealism, December 21, 2020
Andy May, “Ocean SST Temperatures, What Do We Really Know?“, Watts Up With That?, December 23, 2020
Alex Henney and Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, “Climate of Error: The Grave Error of Physics That Created a ‘Climate of Emergency’“, published via Climate Depot, December 23, 2020
Charles Rotter, “Study Suggests Great Earthquakes As Source of Arctic Warming“, Watts Up With That?, December 25, 2020
Willis Eschenbach, “Inside the Bayesian Priory“, Watts Up With That?, December 26, 2020 (in which the author exposes the deep flaw in Bayesian probability while debunking yet another forecast of “climate catastrophe”)
Kenneth Richard, “New Research Shows The Oceans Can ‘Spontaneously’ Warm 8°C In Under 100 Years ‘Without External Trigger’“, Climate Depot, December 28, 2020
Ralph B. Alexander, “New Evidence That the Ancient Climate Was Warmer than Today’s“, Science Under Attack, December 28, 2020
Charles Rotter, “Newly Discovered Greenland Plume Drives Thermal Activities in the Arctic“, Watts Up With That?, December 29, 2020
Paul Dorian, “A Look Back at Global Tropical Activity and US Tornadoes in 2020…Global Tropical Activity Below Normal…US Tornado Activity Below Normal and No Reported EF-5s*“, Perspecta Weather, December 31, 2020
Francis Menton, “Causation of Climate Change, and the Scientific Method“, Manhattan Contrarian, January 3, 2021
Francis Menton, “Causation of Climate Change: Was the Medieval Warm Period ‘Regional’?“, Manhattan Contrarian, January 3, 2021
Kenneth Richard, “Huge Database of Studies Documenting Meters-Higher Mid-Holocene Sea Levels Swells Again in 2020“, Watts Up With That?, January 4, 2020
P. Gosselin, “Alps Ice-Free…6000 Years Ago, When CO2 Was Much Lower than Today’s Levels“, Watts Up With That?, January 6, 2021
Roy W. Spencer, “White House Brochures on Climate: There Is No Climate Crisis“, Roy Spencer Ph.D., January 8, 2021
Anthony Watts, “U.S. Experienced Below-Average Tornado Year, Continuing Long-Term Trend“, ClimateRealism, January 8, 2021
Kenneth Richard, “New Study: Sea Level Rise Rates The Same Since 1958 As They Were For All Of 1900-2018“, NoTricksZone, January 11, 2021
David Middleton and Andy May, “May/Middleton: Rebuttal to Geological Society of London Scientific Statement on Climate Change“, Watts Up With That, January 13, 2021
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, “A New Pause?“, Watts Up With That?, January 14, 2021
Kenneth Richard, “What Global Warming? 148 New (2020) Scientific Papers Affirm Recent Non-Warming, A Degrees-Warmer Past“, NoTricksZone, January 14, 2021
James Taylor, “Peer-Reviewed Study Confirms Antarctica Has Not Warmed in Last Seven Decades“, ClimateRealism, January 14, 2021
Dr. David Whitehouse, “2020, Climate Statistics, and All That: There Has Been No Significant Warming Trend for 5 Years“, The Global Warming Policy Forum, January 14, 2021
Charles Rotter, “The Ocean Warming Enigma“, Watts Up With That?, January 15, 2021
Andy May, “The Rational Climate e-Book“, Watts Up With That?, January 18, 2021
KiryeNet, “Arctic Cool Off: Canada, Greenland And Iceland Have Seen Almost No Warming So Far This Century“, NoTricksZone, January 20, 2021
Kenneth Richard, “Another New Study Says Warming And CO2-Induced Greening Leads To COOLING Of Land Surface Temperatures“, NoTricksZone, January 21, 2021
Roy W. Spencer, “Canada Is Warming at Only 1/2 the Rate of Climate Model Simulations“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., January 21, 2021
Andy May, “A New Look at the Urban Heat Island Effect“, Watts Up With That?, January 22, 2021
Marc Morano, “Bjorn Lomborg: ‘Despite Breathless Climate Reporting about Ever-Increasing fires, US Fires Burn 5-10x Less Today’“, Climate Depot, January 24, 2021
Charles Rotter, “Study Shows Arctic Sea Ice Reached Lowest Point On Modern Record… In The 1940s, Not Today!“, Watts Up With That?, January 24, 2021
Greg Kent, “Disproving Kossin’s Increasing Hurricane Intensity Claims: Update“, William M. Briggs: Statistician to the Stars!, January 28, 2021
Roy W. Spencer, “Could Recent U.S. Warming Trends Be Largely Spurious?“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., January 29, 2021
Marc Morano, “NOAA Features Temperature Chart Showing Earth’s History Much Hotter Than Today – ‘Much too warm for ice sheets or perennial sea ice’“, Climate Depot, January 30, 2021
P. Gosselin, “When Will IPCC End Its Scientific Denial: How Long Can UN Body Ignore Thousands Of Publications Disputing CO2“, NoTricksZone, January 31, 2021
Andy May, “Climate Model Failure“, Watts Up With That?, February 2, 2021
Andy May, “A New Millennial Global Surface Temperature Reconstruction“, Watts Up With That?, February 3, 2021
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, “The New Pause Lengthens from 5 Years 4 Months to 5 Years 6 Months“, Watts Up With That?, February 3, 2021
Anthony Watts, “The Shocking Climate Graph @climateofgavin Doesn’t Want You to See“, Watts Up With That?, February 3, 2021
Anthony Watts, “New Analysis Shows Population Density Is Corrupting U.S. Temperature Record“, ClimateRealism, February 3, 2021
David Middleton, “Scientists Discover Plate Tectonics — Again“, Watts Up With That?, February 4, 2021 (a significant “known unknown”)
Andy May, “The Problem with Climate Models“, Watts Up With That?, February 6, 2021
Eric Worrall, “Claim: Global Warming May Have Started in 1825“, Watts Up With That?, February 7, 2021
P. Gosselin, “Journal Nature Refutes PIK’s Fantasy-Rich Science That A Warmer Arctic Causes Extreme Cold Snaps“, NoTricksZone, February 9, 2021
Roy W. Spencer, “Urban Heat Island Effects on U.S. Temperature Trends, 1973-2020: USHCN vs. Hourly Weather Stations“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., February 11, 2021
Alan Siddons, “Simple Greenhouse Model 2: The Reckoning“, Bookworm Room, February 18, 2021
P. Gosselin, “Junk Grade Models: Even Short-Term Climate And Weather Modelers Get It All Wrong“, NoTricksZone, February 19, 2021
Andy May, “The Texas Energy Disaster“, What’s Up With That?, February 20, 2021
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, “HadCRUT5 Shows 14% More Global Warming since 1850 Than HadCRUT4“, Watts Up With That?, February 21, 2021 (more adjustments to make distant past look colder and the recent past look warmer)
Charles Rotter, “‘Problem of Missing Ice’ Finally Solved by Movement of the Earth’s Crust“, Watts Up With That?, February 24, 2021
Kenneth Richard, “10 Recent Studies Affirm It Was Regionally 2-6°C Warmer Than Today During The Last Glacial“, NoTricksZone, March 4, 2021
Willis Eschebach, “There Are Models and There Are Climate Models“, Watts Up With That?, March 12, 2021
Ed Zuiderwijk, “The Problem with Climate Models“, Watts Up With That?, March 14, 2021
Paul Homewood, “Increasing Hurricane Frequency Due To Better Observation, Not Climate Change–BBC“, Watts Up With That?, March 16, 2021 (see also Anthony Watts, “New Data: Increasing Hurricane Frequency Due to Better Observation, Not Climate Change“, ClimateRealism, March 17, 2021)
Boris Winterhalter, “The Water Planet Earth and Its Climate“, Watts Up With That?, March 16, 2021
Richard Lindzen and William Happer, “Climate ‘Emergency’? Not So Fast“, National Review, April 16, 2021
Holman W. Jenkins Jr., “Obama’s Chief Energy Scientist Declares his Climate Dissent“, Climate Depot, April 18, 2021
Willis Eschenbach, “The Latest US CO2 Fantasy“, Watts Up With That?, April 21, 2021
James Taylor, “CO2 Levels Highest in 3.6 Million Years, Yet Temperatures Are Not Following Suit“, Climate Realism, April 21, 2021
Larry Hamlin, “History Confirms Democrat’s 1988 Senate Global Warming Hearing Got Everything Wrong from Start to Finish“, Watts Up With That?, April 22, 2021
Andy May, “A Review of Temperature Reconstructions“, Watts Up With That?, May 2, 2021
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, “Why Models Can’t Predict Temperature: A History of Failure“, Watts Up With That?, May 9, 2021
AGW: The Death Knell (with many links to related reading and earlier posts)
Not-So-Random Thoughts (XIV) (second item)
AGW in Austin?
Understanding Probability: Pascal’s Wager and Catastrophic Global Warming
The Precautionary Principle and Pascal’s Wager
AGW in Austin? (II) (with more links to related reading)
Hot Is Better Than Cold: A Small Case Study
Analytical and Scientific Arrogance
Widlfires and Climate Change
Why I Don’t Believe in “Climate Change”
Predicting “Global” Temperatures — An Analogy with Baseball
More about Modeling and Science
Climate Hysteria: An Update
UHI in Austin Revisited
The White House Brochures on Climate Change
The “Pause” Redux: The View from Austin
The 96-Year Pause