It can happen here.
In “The Bad News about Economic Growth”, I note the dire implications of my (robust) equation relating economic growth in the U.S. to four explanatory variables:
What does the equation portend for the next 10 years? Based on the most recent values of [the four variables], the real rate of growth for the next 10 years will be about -6 percent. Yes, that’s minus 6 percent!
I have added this:
Is such a thing possible in the United States? Yes! The estimates of inflation-adjusted GDP available at the website of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (an official arm of the U.S. government) yield these frightening statistics: Constant-dollar GDP dropped at an annualized rate of -9.3 percent from 1929 to 1932, and at an annualized rate of -7.4 percent from 1929 to 1933.
Politics and Prosperity 