The Relative Depth of Recessions Since World War II

You may be surprised.

I define a recession as a span of at least two consecutive quarters in which real (inflation-adjusted) GDP has dropped below its recent peak and remains below that peak.

The relative depth — or economic pain — caused by a recession can be measured roughly by the depth of the drop, measured as a percentage of the pre-recession peak. An alternative measure, and perhaps a better one, is the cumulative percentage drop from the pre-recession peak.

The Great Recession (2008-10) and the Pandemic Recession (2020) stand out by both measures as being more painful than any of the preceding post-war recessions. However, the back-to-back recessions of 1980-83, if combined, would surpass the cumulative percentage drop incurred during the Pandemic Recession.

The recessions, as painful as they have been, pale in comparison to America’s continuing mega-depression, which is largely the product of governmental interventions in the economy.

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