Tonight’s debate could undo Trump’s momentum — or it could reinforce it. Whatever the case, Biden is facing formidable odds against re-election (as of now).
The first piece of evidence is general direction of the polls, as measured by changes in each pollster’s results:
That looks good for Trump. This looks even better:
Biden is running well behind his pace of four years ago. And four years ago, despite “winning” the (mythical) nationwide popular vote by 4.5 percentage points, Biden eked out an electoral-vote victory on the basis of narrow wins in key States. That’s because Biden’s “victory” by 7 million votes was accounted for by his popular-vote margins in two solid-Blue States: California and New York. The huge — and superfluous victories — in those States masked a tie in the rest of the country. That’s why Biden had to rely on chicanery to squeak by in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If Biden continues to under-perform his 2020 showing, the elections in key States won’t be close enough to steal.
Politics and Prosperity 