Here’s the polling trend since the “debate” on June 27 that ended Biden’s candidacy:

To adjust for bias, I use the 2020 election to estimate the extent to which (most) polling organizations underestimate Trump’s strength among voters. Underestimation is time-dishonored strategem, aimed at dispiriting the opposition and its supporters — the “opposition” being any politician, like Trump, who threatens the power of the deep state and its allies, enablers, and beneficiaries.

I follow the presidential polling summaries published by Real Clear Politics (RCP). Of the polling organizations surveyed by RCP, 17 released polls in the final week before the 2020 election. Fourteen of the polls overestimated Biden’s popular-vote margin, with overestimates ranging from 0.5 to 7.5 percentage points. Only three pollsters underestimated Biden’s margin, with a range of 0.5 to 3.5 points. The overall average for the 17 pollsters was an overestimate (for Biden) of 3.7 points.

Given that Trump is again the GOP nominee, I see no reason to assume that the pro-Democrat bias this year is any smaller than it was in 2020. So I simply add 3.7 points to Trump’s 7-day polling averages to get a truer picture of Trump’s electoral appeal. Thus the values plotted in the preceding graph. (I am being generous to anti-Trump pollsters; the average anti-Trump bias in 2020, according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research, was 4.5 points for all.)

How does the current range — a lead of 1 to 4 points — translate into electoral votes? Here’s how, Trump would win 313 to 327 electoral votes if the election were held today:

(See “Trump vs. Biden: 16” for an explanation of the relationship between popular vote/polling margin and electoral votes.)

Not only that, but the “Harris honeymoon” may be coming to an end. The polls are swinging (modestly) back toward Trump:

All in all, things still look good for Trump. But there are question marks. Will Harris’s momentum continue? Will a “black swan” event upend the election? What about the upcoming sentencing in Trump’s “hush money” case? Will any other anti-Trump trials be completed by election day?

Stay tuned.