… Trump didn’t prevail in the nationwide popular-vote tally by 6+ points as I expected. But a margin of about 4 points ain’t chopped liver. It wasn’t close, despite the prognostications of most pollsters and Nate Silver, the “master” poll masseuse.
Silver’s final forecast put Harris and Trump in a statistical dead heat, with win probabilities of 50.0 percent and 49.6 percent respectively. Silver’s assessment reflects the many polls upon which he draws, both nationwide and statewide. Needless to say, most of the polls got it wrong — many got it very badly wrong.
It’s ironic that Rasmussen Reports, much-derided by Silver, turned in the best performance by a pollster. Its final poll, which spanned October 19-October 29, had Trump up by 3 points, with a margin of error of 1 points. In fact, Rasmussen Reports has an excellent track record when it comes to assessing presidential races.
Politics and Prosperity 