I will post a more complete analysis of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and their implications for America’s (and the world’s) economic and political future. For the moment, I will focus on the implications of Trump’s challenge to China, which now faces a tariff of 34 percent on goods and services exported to the United States. China has announced that it would reciprocate. Trump announced, in turn, that if China reciprocates he will up the ante to a tariff of 104 percent on imports from China.
What Trump is saying, in effect, that the United States will no longer subsidize China’s industrial and military ambitions. Trump, rightly, sees China as the “main enemy” and wants to put it out of the business of draining America’s ability to prepare for and fight a massive, prolonged war, and thus to deter China from threatening just that. By putting China out of business, he will have de-fanged it and eliminated it as a threat to America — and Europe.
If the Europeans are smart, they will respond to Trump’s tariffs by reducing theirs on U.S. goods and services. And they will treat China a harshly as Trump seems willing to do.
If what’s left of Western Civilization has a future, it is in Trump’s hands. Will Europe go along or continue its slide into economic catastrophe and subservience to China (and its self-inflicted Muslim invasion)?
My guess is that some European nations will break from the EU and unilaterally reduce tariffs on U.S. imports. Others (e.g., France and Germany) will not, just to spite Trump. One result will be the breakup of the EU. Another will be the effective breakup of NATO. A third will be Putin’s agreement to a settlement with Ukraine, given the removal of the NATO spectre from Russia’s vision. A fourth will be the de-fanging of China, as its sources of funding in America and (part of) Europe wither away — either through acquiescence to Trump or because they defy him.
Politics and Prosperity 