Osama Parrots Michael Moore

In the newly released videotape bin Laden also says (via Drudge):

[W]e never thought that the high commander of the US armies would leave 50 thousand of his citizens in both towers to face the horrors by themselves when they most needed him because it seemed to distract his attention from listening to the girl telling him about her goat butting was more important than paying attention to airplanes butting the towers which gave us three times the time to execute the operation thank god.

What was Bush supposed to do, don his Superman outfit, fly instantly to Metropolis, and perch all 50,000 (?) citizens on his shoulders? Or was he supposed to start barking orders left and right, without detailed knowledge of events on the ground and in the air? By the time he had learned all there was to know, it would have been too late to start giving orders.

In this country, we don’t wait for Allah or Premier Stalin to tell us what to do. We rely on free individuals and institutions to do the best they can do with the resources at their disposal.* That concept seems to be beyond the ken of religious and irreligious fanatics like bin Laden and Moore.

__________

* If the FAA and armed forces of the United States were less prepared for 9/11 than they might have been, the blame rests with Clinton as much as anyone. What was he doing on the morning of 9/11, and with whom was he doing it?

Bin Laden Threatens SUV Owners

That’s one of the implications of the newly released videotape made by bin Laden (or an actor), somewhere, sometime since the Dems nominated Kerry. Via Drudge, bin Laden says:

Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or Al Qaeda. Your security is in your hands. Each state that doesn’t mess with our security has automatically secured their security.

In other words, America should get out of the oil-pumping lands of the Middle East and al Qaida will leave America alone.

I’m sure there are many left-leaners and pseudo-pacifists out there who 1) are ready to believe bin Laden and 2) ready to do the deal. Before they consider it seriously, however, they ought to think of what would happen to the price of oil and the state of the U.S. economy if we were simply to abandon the Middle East to bin Laden and his thugs.

Hundred of billions for defense, not one cent for tribute.

The Devil You Don’t Want to Know

TradeSports has opened contracts on identity of the 2008 Republican nominee. As of now, contracts are available for Tenn. Sen. Bill Frist, Ariz. Sen. John McCain, ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush, Homeland Security Sec’y. Tom Ridge, Nat’l Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice, N.Y. Gov. George Pataki, Colo. Gov. Bill Owens, Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, Va. Sen. George Allen, Neb. Sen. Chuck Hagel, and HHS Sec’y. Tommy Thompson.

Mostly big-government Republicans and RINOs, with the exception of Allen, who’s probably unelectable because of his “hard” image.

Libertarian Republicans need to get serious and coalesce around an attractive, small-government, pro-defense candidate. Are there any out there?

The Devil She Knows

Megan McArdle (aka Jane Galt of Asymmetrical Information) has decided how she’s going to vote:

Kerry’s record for the first fifteen years in the senate, before he knew what he needed to say in order to get elected, is not the record of anyone I want within spitting distance of the White House war room. Combine that with his deficits on domestic policy — Kerry’s health care plan would, in my opinon, kill far more people, and cost more, than the Iraq war ever will — and it’s finally clear. For all the administration’s screw -ups — and there have been many — I’m sticking with the devil I know. George Bush in 2004.

And that’s only the conclusion of her long, perceptive explanation. Read the whole thing here.

Paul Johnson on Election 2004

Paul Johnson, a British historian perhaps best-known for Modern Times, assesses the stakes in the election of 2004:

The great issue in the 2004 election — it seems to me as an Englishman — is, How seriously does the United States take its role as a world leader, and how far will it make sacrifices, and risk unpopularity, to discharge this duty with success and honor? In short, this is an election of the greatest significance, for Americans and all the rest of us. It will redefine what kind of a country the United States is, and how far the rest of the world can rely upon her to preserve the general safety and protect our civilization….

…September 11…gave [George W. Bush’s] presidency a purpose and a theme, and imposed on him a mission….[H]e has been absolutely right in estimating the seriousness of the threat international terrorism poses to the entire world and on the need for the United States to meet this threat with all the means at its disposal and for as long as may be necessary. Equally, he has placed these considerations right at the center of his policies and continued to do so with total consistency, adamantine determination, and remarkable courage, despite sneers and jeers, ridicule and venomous opposition, and much unpopularity.

There is something grimly admirable about his stoicism in the face of reverses, which reminds me of other moments in history: the dark winter Washington faced in 1777-78, a time to “try men’s souls,” as Thomas Paine put it, and the long succession of military failures Lincoln had to bear and explain before he found a commander who could take the cause to victory….[S]omething persuades me that Bush — with his grimness and doggedness, his lack of sparkle but his enviable concentration on the central issue — is the president America needs at this difficult time.

He has, it seems to me, the moral right to ask American voters to give him the mandate to finish the job he has started.

This impression is abundantly confirmed, indeed made overwhelming, when we look at the alternative….[T]here are six good reasons that he should be mistrusted. First, and perhaps most important, he seems to have no strong convictions about what he would do if given office and power. The content and emphasis of his campaign on terrorism, Iraq, and related issues have varied from week to week. But they seem always to be determined by what his advisers, analyzing the polls and other evidence, recommend, rather than by his own judgment and convictions….

…Second, Kerry’s personal character has, so far, appeared in a bad light. He has always presented himself, for the purpose of Massachusetts vote-getting, as a Boston Catholic of presumably Irish origins. This side of Kerry is fundamentally dishonest. He does not follow Catholic teachings…[and] since the campaign began it has emerged that Kerry’s origins are not in the Boston-Irish community but in Germanic Judaism. Kerry knew this all along, and deliberately concealed it for political purposes. If a man will mislead about such matters, he will mislead about anything.

There is, thirdly, Kerry’s long record of contradictions and uncertainties as a senator and his apparent inability to pursue a consistent policy on major issues.

Fourth is his posturing over his military record, highlighted by his embarrassing pseudo-military salute when accepting the nomination. Fifth is his disturbing lifestyle, combining liberal — even radical — politics with being the husband, in succession, of two heiresses, one worth $300 million and the other $1 billion….Sixth and last is the Kerry team: who seem to combine considerable skills in electioneering with a variety of opinions on all key issues. Indeed, it is when one looks at Kerry’s closest associates that one’s doubts about his suitability become certainties….[T]he man Kerry would have as his vice president is an ambulancechasing lawyer of precisely the kind the American system has spawned in recent decades, to its great loss and peril….

Of Kerry’s backers, maybe the most prominent is George Soros, a man who made his billions through the kind of unscrupulous manipulations that (in Marxist folklore) characterize “finance capitalism.” This is the man who did everything in his power to wreck the currency of Britain….He has also used his immense resources to interfere in the domestic affairs of half a dozen other countries, some of them small enough for serious meddling to be hard to resist. One has to ask: Why is a man like Soros so eager to see Kerry in the White House? The question is especially pertinent since he is not alone among the superrich wishing to see Bush beaten. There are several other huge fortunes backing Kerry….

I don’t recall any occasion, certainly not since the age of FDR, when so much partisan election material has been produced by intellectuals of the Left, not only in the United States but in Europe, especially in Britain, France, and Germany. These intellectuals — many of them with long and lugubrious records of supporting lost left-wing causes….

Behind this front line of articulate Bushicides…there is the usual cast of Continental suspects, led by Chirac in France and the superbureaucrats of Brussels….Anti-Americanism has seldom been stronger in Continental Europe, and Bush seems to personify in his simple, uncomplicated self all the things these people most hate about America — precisely because he is so American. Anti-Americanism, like anti-Semitism, is not, of course, a rational reflex. It is, rather, a mental disease, and the Continentals are currently suffering from a virulent spasm of the infection, as always happens when America exerts strong and unbending leadership.

Behind this second line of adversaries there is a far more sinister third. All the elements of anarchy and unrest in the Middle East and Muslim Asia and Africa are clamoring and praying for a Kerry victory….[Bush’s] defeat on November 2 [would] be greeted, in Arab capitals, by shouts of triumph from fundamentalist mobs of exactly the kind that greeted the news that the Twin Towers had collapsed and their occupants been exterminated.

I cannot recall any election when the enemies of America all over the world have been so unanimous in hoping for the victory of one candidate. That is the overwhelming reason that John Kerry must be defeated, heavily and comprehensively.

(From Paul Johnson’s “High Stakes,” National Review, October 25, 2004. Thanks to The American Thinker for the tip, and to the Hispanic American Center for Economic Research for the complete text.)

Ray Fair’s Prediction

Yale econometrician Ray Fair, whose model of presidential election outcomes I have discussed here, has issued his final prediction for the 2004 election. He believes that Bush will get 57.70 percent of the two-party popular vote. If that were to happen, Bush would walk off with 461 to 518 electoral votes (explanation here, see method 3).

I see a much closer election, with Bush getting about 51 percent of the two-party popular vote and somewhat more than 300 electoral votes. I’ll issue a final prediction on election eve.

Ballots for the Intelligent

Regarding the purportedly confusing Ohio absentee ballots, Eugene Volokh says:

…I think well-designed ballots should be understandable even by people of below average intelligence — there are quite a few voters like that, and one doesn’t want them to be confused, either. More to the point, ballots should be understandable by people who are intelligent but who are distracted, or who don’t invest much time in following directions closely….

Why should we tailor ballots to fit the needs of those who are stupid or distracted? If you’re too dumb or distracted to understand a ballot, you shouldn’t be voting. The loss of liberty can be traced to too much democracy (see here and here). Complex ballots might be an antidote for excessive democracy.

The Meaning of the Election

Virginia Postrel has it exactly right:

[A] Bush victory will be interpreted as public approval (a majority’s, at least) of his executive style and personality, of the war in Iraq, and of his economic policies, particularly the tax cuts. A Kerry victory will be interpreted as public rejection of Bush’s temperament, of the war in Iraq, and of his tax cuts and of his pro-business (and in some cases pro-market) policies.

I wish I’d said it.

My Advice to the LP

Max Borders, writing at Jujitsu Generis, says:

A viable Libertarian Party is going to have to change its ways: 1) its platform, i.e. to moderate its views; 2) it’s [sic] image, i.e. of geeks and pot-smokers; and 3) maybe even its name and brand, i.e. a name and brand sullied by 1 and 2.

Here’s a better plan. Don’t run LP candidates for office — especially not for the presidency. Throw the LP’s support to candidates who — on balance — come closest to espousing libertarian positions. Third parties — no matter how they’re packaged — just don’t have staying power, given the American electoral system. The LP’s only hope of making progress toward libertarian ideals is to “sell” its influence to the highest bidder.

If Only Bush Weren’t Bush…

…he’d win in a landslide. That’s what Jeff Jarvis seems to be saying. Yes, and if pigs had wings…

UPDATE:

Twisted Spinster nails Jarvis:

I once remarked that reading Jeff Jarvis’s blog is like staring at a train wreck full of naked old people: appalling, but you just keep peeking between your fingers. Well. That latest post is a particularly pathetic example of the premature senility affecting the “political consciousness” of a certain age group.

Yes, reading Jarvis is like reading a high-school civics text circa 1955. Jarvis’s blog is a variation on this theme: Government holds the solution to all our problems. Our duty as citizens is to educate ourselves on the issues so that we can elect the “right” bunch of commissars to tell us how to run our lives.

I had just today removed Jarvis’s blog from my roll. I feel vindicated in doing so by Twisted Spinster‘s take on Jarvis.

(Thanks to Random Jottings for the tip.)

Right, but Wrong

Kerry says, “The ethical test of a good society is how it treats its most vulnerable members.” True. But Kerry — as a typical liberal — equates “society” with “government”. He sees government as a parent-surrogate, upon which we depend for food, clothing, shelter, medical care, and psychological satisfaction. He has no conception of government as a “night watchman” — a neutral protector who defends us from predators so that we may advance beyond dependency and fulfill our potential.

Wishful and Slippery Thinking at The New Republic

Ryan Lizza writes this:

It looks like the race is down to ten swing states: Florida (27 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (21 votes), Ohio (20), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), West Virginia, and New Hampshire (4). Assuming the other 40 states are out of play, Kerry has 217 electoral votes wrapped up, and Bush has 208.

Ha, ha! Reputable polls, such as Rasmussen’s, have it the other way around (Bush 220, Kerry 190).

Lizza goes on to envision a tie in the Electoral College, which would throw the election into the House of Representatives. His take:

Almost half the country still thinks Bush’s presidency is illegitimate. There probably isn’t a way for a second Bush term to seem more illegitimate in the eyes of Democrats than his first term than for this election to be decided by the House, a far more partisan and less respected institution than the Supreme Court. But it could happen.

Where did he get that bit about almost half the country thinking Bush’s presidency is illegitimate? Source, please.

And so what if the House is partisan? It’s supposed to be partisan; it’s an elective body. Why would it be illegitimate for the House to decide the election in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution? I can see the headlines in the liberal press: Bush Re-elected by House, Madison’s Scheme to Blame!

UPDATED – 10/28/04, 12:48 PM (CT):

I wasn’t the only blogger to note Lizza’s slippery (sloppy?) thinking about the election going to the House. As Lizza admits today:

LEGITIMATE POINT: Mickey Kaus is taking me to task for writing that an electoral college tie decided in Bush’s favor by the House of Representatives would be seen as more illegitimate to Democrats than Bush’s first term. Just to make it clear, I don’t think it would be illegitimate–just as I don’t think Bush’s first term was–but I was saying that Democrats would see it that way.

But Mickey is right. It’s silly to argue that the result of a process carefully spelled out in the Constitution could be construed as illegitimate. And, thinking it over, I imagine most Democrats would accept such a result–as long as Bush also wins the popular vote. What I should have said is that if the race ends in an electoral college tie and a popular vote victory for Kerry, then a House-decided win for Bush would be seen as illegitimate by many Democrats, who would argue that the House thwarted the will of the majority. But I admit that what I wrote, which was unfortunately quoted in The Washington Post, was sort of dopey….

I heartily agree with Lizza that what he wrote was dopey. He’s right, however, that Dems would see a Bush victory in the House as illegitimate — which says a lot about the Dems and their willingness to subvert the Constitution when they don’t get what they want.

Fear Strikes Austin’s Lefty Blogger

Holden at First Draft writes:

An anonymous commenter tipped me to a rumor that my hometown paper, the Austin American-Statesman, is planning to endorse Bush this weekend.

Frankly, I’m shocked. The Statesman‘s editorial page has been quite critical of Bush lately, and they’ve been endorsing several democrats in local races such as Mark Strama and Kelly White for state representatives over DeLay-whores Jack Stick and Todd Baxter. But this is no time to take anything for granted.

Make your views known. Anon suggests contacting publisher Mike Laosa: mlaosa@statesman.com or calling the paper at (512) 445-3500.

You might also try editorial page editor Arnold Garcia (512)445-3667 or sending an e-mail to editors@statesman.com.

Act now, espicially those of you in the Austin area.

Gee whiz! Can lefties be so deluded as to think that a newspaper’s endorsement makes a dime’s worth of difference to voters? Bush will take the electoral votes of Texas regardless of anything the Statesman or any other Texas newspaper has to say about the election.

My advice to First Draft fans: Don’t waste your time by calling or writing the Statesman. In fact, don’t waste your time by going to the polls on Nov. 2.

Irrational Risk Aversion at Work

Daniel Drezner is listing heavily toward Kerry. Here’s a telling remark:

Given the foreign policy stakes in this election, I prefer a leader who has a good decision-making process, even if his foreign policy instincts are skewed in a direction I don’t like, over a leader who has a bad decision-making process, even if his foreign policy instincts are skewed in a direction I do like.

In other words, because Drezner is afraid of the small probability that he will be killed in a traffic accident he would rather walk to the corner store, and be ripped off, than get in his car and drive to Wal-Mart. When did the oyster replace the eagle as America’s symbol?

To change the metaphor, think of Kerry’s foreign policy as a zero. Kerry is a whiz at multiplication, but no matter how well he multiplies, the result is always zero. Bush, on the other hand, has a foreign policy with a value of, say, 10. According to Drezner, Bush may sometimes multiply that foreign policy by zero and get an answer of zero — but not always. Bush’s answer will usually be closer to 10 than zero.

Anyway, who says Kerry has a better decision-making process than Bush? That’s all hype. Kerry keeps asking questions because he’s searching for his principles and can’t find them. There’s more about Kerry’s vaunted decision-making style here.

An Almost-Correct Diagnosis

Rice at Southern Appeal says:

…If Bush loses, the debates will be a significant reason why. We had 4 liberal moderators. While moderators tend to have only a small impact on the debate, they do decide which topics are discussed. They frame the issues. Repeatedly, Iraq was framed as a failure by the moderators.

If Bush loses it will because he debated Kerry, period. I know that it’s unseemly for a sitting president to refuse to participate in the quadrennial test of cramming and makeup. But the debates do nothing but show how well a candidate can perform in the artificial setting of live TV. The debates have nothing to do with governance and everything to do with performance (in the showbiz sense).

Bush should have refused to participate in the debates, on the ground that he has more pressing things to do, such as prosecute a war. His refusal might have cost him a few points in the polls, but that’s nothing compared with the damage he has suffered by giving Kerry an opportunity to feign gravitas.

Is the Postal Service Next?

FuturePundit asks, “Can We Finally Retire The Space Shuttle?

It is my hope that the success of [Burt Rutan’s] SpaceShipOne and the coming flights of SpaceShipTwo and other private spacecraft designs will allow the American public to get over their emotional attachment to the Space Shuttle.

Now, if Congress would only allow UPS, FedEx, and their imitators to deliver the mail. For one thing, I’ll bet that they would be willing and able to do the following: Let me set up an online account where I can simply check off the vendors whose catalogs I don’t want to receive. I’d gladly pay something not to lug those catalogs up the driveway, then back down the driveway, in the recycling bin.

Nader, the Bogeyman

Ryan Lizza of The New Republic has posted a piece about Nader’s influence on the outcome of the election. Key passages:

…Despite the fact that he is registering barely 1 percent in national polls, Nader is indeed perfectly positioned to cost Kerry the election. Consider Kerry’s current road to 270 electoral votes. The number of true toss-up states has dwindled to eleven: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. Nader is on the ballot in all of these states but Pennsylvania and Ohio, where his access is still the subject of litigation. Each of these states is close enough that Nader could make the difference, and the damage he could do to Kerry becomes more obvious when one looks at the combination of states Kerry is likely to need for victory. Assuming Bush wins Florida and Kerry wins Pennsylvania, Kerry must then win Ohio and some combination of three to five of the remaining eight small toss-up states. These eight states have two things in common: in each, the race is almost a dead heat, and, in each, Nader is polling between one and four points. In other words, Nader is doing best in the most closely contested states….

In his pitch to students in San Francisco and Berkeley, Nader talks about the importance of organizing and getting involved in the political process. He notes that politicians only respond when people are mobilized. “It’s very important for the rumble of the people to come back,” he says. It is a bizarre statement in the context of liberal politics in 2004. On the left, there probably has not been as much energy and organization since the nuclear freeze movement of the 1980s. Bush has helped create the foundation for an entire New Left counter-establishment. From Moveon.org to the Howard Dean campaign to the liberal blogosphere to Air America radio to new think tanks sprouting up around Washington, D.C., an entire new network of exactly the kind of activists that Nader has long praised is suddenly being born. Their singular goal is to defeat Bush. At 70, Nader’s last great act as a public citizen might be to scuttle all their work. Not even the LaRouchies are that irresponsible.

Hey, a guy’s gotta do what a guy’s gotta do. If some lefties prefer Nader to Kerry, what are we supposed to do, shoot them in the back as they stand in a polling booth?

Ain’t democracy great? So it takes a bite out of liberty every once in a while, but sometimes liberty bites back.

Advice for the "Disenfranchised"

Some voters, particularly voters in States where a Kerry win is certain, complain that the Electoral College disenfranchises them. They say that their votes don’t count because the election isn’t decided by the national popular vote. I agree with you — 100 percent. So, here’s what you can do about it:

Let’s say you’re a Democrat in New York (or California or Massachusetts, etc). You know that your vote won’t make a difference because Kerry’s going to take your State’s electoral votes, no matter what. So don’t vote. And pass the word to several million other “disenfranchised” Democrats in your State. Suddenly, your State’s Republicans will feel enfranchised, for a change.

Novelists for Kerry

Slate interviewed 31 novelists about their preference between Kerry and Bush. In summary:

Thirty-one novelists participated, with four for Bush, 24 for Kerry, and three in a category of their own.

What do you expect from a bunch of fiction writers? Anyway, here’s my take on the gang of 31:

  • I’ve never read anything by 27 of them (and I read a lot of novels).
  • Of the other four, two (Joyce Carol Oates and John Updike) long ago became boring; one (Amy Tan) has always been boring; and one (Jane Smiley) wrote a passably good mystery about 20 years ago.

Joyce Carol Oates’s comment epitomizes the vacuousness of the knee-jerk pro-Kerry literati:

Like virtually everyone I know, I’m voting for Kerry. And probably for exactly the same reasons. To enumerate these reasons, to repeat yet another time the fundamental litany of liberal principles that need to be reclaimed and revitalized, seems to be redundant and unnecessary. Our culture has become politicized to a degree that verges upon hysteria. And since I live in New Jersey, a state in which an “honest politician” is someone who hasn’t yet been arrested, I have come to have modest, that’s to say realistic expectations about public life.

No wonder her stuff has become unreadable. She has become detached from reality and logic. Maybe she should try “magic realism”.

By the way, the four pro-Bush writers are:

  • Orson Scott Card, a pro-war Democrat.
  • Robert Ferrigno, another pro-war type who says “Most novelists live in their imagination, which is a fine place to be until the bad guys come knock knock knocking.”
  • Roger L. Simon, another pro-war Democrat.
  • Thomas Mallon, who is worth quoting at length:

I’ll be voting for President Bush. His response to the 9/11 attacks has been both strong and measured, and he has extended a once-unimaginable degree of freedom (however tentative) to Afghanistan and Iraq. I am unimpressed by the frantic vilification that has come his way from even mainstream elements of the Democratic Party. The rhetorical assault is reminiscent of—though it far exceeds—the overheated opposition to Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984. Back then the intellectual establishment told us how repression and apocalypse would be just around the corner if the American “cowboy” were kept in the White House for another four years. Well (as Reagan might say, his head cocked to one side), I remember a rather different result from RR’s second term. And I’m hopeful about another four years under George W. Bush.

Two of the three agnostics have interesting things to say:

  • A.M. Homes:

Richard Nixon, because I found him so fascinating the first time around I’d be curious to see what he could do from the beyond … ?

  • Richard Dooling:

More than any other election in recent memory, this one reminds me of Henry Adams’ observation that politics is the systematic organization of hatreds.

The left-wing political road rage directed at George W. Bush for being dumb and lying about the war reminds me of nothing so much as the right-wing obsessive invective directed at Bill Clinton for being smart and lying about sex. Rush Limbaugh versus Michael Moore, and let the man nursing the most unrequited rage win. The DRAMA and spectacle of the election will be fascinating to watch, but novelists, even more than actors, should be political agnostics.

The same goes for musicians, Richard.

Your Tax Dollars at Work

From Yahoo! News:

AP: Report Finds Lavish Spending at TSA

By LESLIE MILLER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON – The government agency in charge of airport security spent nearly a half-million dollars on an awards ceremony at a lavish hotel, including $81,000 for plaques and $500 for cheese displays, according to an internal report obtained by The Associated Press….

Par for the course in D.C. The feds do it. And the feds’ contractors do it. And it’s your money. I managed to kill my old (tax-funded) outfit’s lavish annual “holiday” party, but a lot of the Indians and not a few Chiefs were upset about it.