The Filibuster Factor

Some commentators have suggested that an Obama or Clinton presidency wouldn’t be an utter disaster, given the ability of GOP senators to stymie statist legislation by voting “nay” on cloture motions. (A cloture motion is a motion to cut off debate, that is, to stop a procedural filibuster.)

But…there may be only 44 GOP senators in the next Congress (down from 49). In that event, it could be hard to round up 41 “nays,” given the number of RINOs and half-baked conservatives on the GOP side of the aisle (e.g., Snowe and Collins of Maine, Specter of Pennsylvania, Coleman of Minnesota, Smith of Oregon). That will be especially true on critical issues where RINOs are notably soft (e.g., health care and defense).

Election 2008: Fifth Forecast

My eighth forecast is here.

UPDATED (02/17/08)

The Presidency – Method 1

Intrade posts State-by-State odds odds on the outcome of the presidential election in November. I assign all of a State’s electoral votes to the party whose nominee that is expected to win that State. Where the odds are 50-50, I split the State’s electoral votes between the two parties.

As of today, the odds point to this result:

Democrat — 328 electoral votes (EVs)

Republican — 210 EVs

The Presidency – Method 2

I have devised a “secret formula” for estimating the share of electoral votes cast for the winner of the presidential election. (The formula’s historical accuracy is described in my second forecast.) The formula currently yields these estimates of the outcome of this year’s presidential election:

Democrat nominee — 271 to 304 EVs

Republican nominee — 234 to 267 EVs

U.S. Senate

Democrats will pick up five Senate seats, one each in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, plus Mississippi or Minnesota. The gain will change the balance from 51 Democrats (including Lieberman and Sanders, both nominally independent) and 49 Republicans to 56 Democrats and 44 Republicans.

Stability Isn’t Everything

Mark Perry (Carpe Diem) touts the stability of the U.S. economy:

The U.S. economy has become increasingly more stable over time…. Since 1985, real GDP growth has fluctuated in a range between 0 and 5%. Despite a slowdown, or even a recession, we are fortunate to be living in the most economically stable period in U.S. history.

Well, maybe not so fortunate. As I note here:

Had the economy continued to grow after 1907 at the 1790-1907 rate, real GDP in 2006 would have been $32 trillion, vice the actual value of $11 trillion [in year 2000 dollars].

The year 1907 marks the onset of the regulatory-welfare state (see this). The era of economic stability that we now “enjoy” has come at a very high price. It is the stability of imprisonment in a government-controlled economy. The result has been a diminishing rate of growth, accompanied by a rising rate of inflation:

Real GDP is nominal (current-dollar) GDP divided by the GDP deflator, a measure of changes in the overall level of prices for the goods and services that make up GDP. I derived five-year averages from the estimates of real GDP and the GDP deflator for 1790 through 2006, as provided by Louis D. Johnston and Samuel H. Williamson, “The Annual Real and Nominal GDP for the United States, 1790 – Present.” Economic History Services, July 27, 2007, URL : http://eh.net/hmit/gdp/. UPDATE (01/30/08): The averages for 2005 include estimates of real GDP and the GDP deflator for 2007, as issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 30, 2008. [From “Is Inflation Inevitable?” (18 Jan 2008)]

Ignore the artificially high rate of growth from the early 1930s to the end of World War II. It reflects the recovery from the government-caused-and prolonged Great Depression, followed by the war-fueled “boom.” Similarly, ignore the inflation spikes that coincide with the Civil War and World War I. The true story is told by the trend lines. Things were going quite well until the early 1900s. Then, thanks to “progressives” and their “reforms,” government got into the act, in a big way…

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

George Santayana, The Life of Reason

The Heritage Guide to the Constitution

I worked my way slowly through The Heritage Guide to the Constitution after receiving my copy more than two years ago. I finished the Guide two days ago. The exercise confirmed what I already knew, namely, that the original meaning of the Constitution (including its amendments) has been twisted badly.

I am now embarked on an effort to contrast the present, judicial interpretation of the Constitution with its original meaning, section by section and clause by clause.

My Dilemma

The thought of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama as president appalls me. Both are “liberal fascists,” but Clinton is a personally despicable one.

So, I chortle (not cackle) every time Obama beats Clinton in a primary. But as Obama racks up those primary wins he becomes the more likely nominee of the Democrat Party.

Obama (so the polls say) is more electable than Clinton. Therefore, my delight in Obama’s success against Clinton may become my dismay if that success leads to an Obama presidency.

I resolve, therefore, to hope that Clinton becomes the Democrat nominee — much as I would enjoy seeing Clinton (and Clinton) rejected by their own party.

An Embarrassment of Ignoramuses

This reminds me of the multitude of lemming-like politicians and celebrities who have joined the “crusade” against global warming. (It would be a lot cooler if they would just close their mouths.)

Will those multitudes be embarrassed a few years from now when the scientific “consensus” turns against them? Not at all. They’ll have by then joined other ill-conceived “crusades” against other imaginary ills, or ones that cannot be cured by government. Why? For the sake of having government tell the rest of us how to live our lives.

And so it goes in the never-never land of the fashionable doom-sayer.

Related posts:
The Worriers” (13 Jun 2004)
More about the Worrying Classes” (17 Jun 2004)
“‘Warmism’: The Myth of Anthropogenic Global Warming” (23 Aug 2007)
Re: Climate ‘Science’” (19 Sep 2007)
More Evidence against Anthropogenic Global Warming” (25 Sep 2007)
Yet More Evidence against Anthropogenic Global Warming” (04 Oct 2007)
Global Warming, Close to Home” (22 Dec 2007)
You Know…” (02 Jan 2008)
Global Warming, Close to Home (II)” (06 Jan 2008)

Liberal Fascism

There’s an excellent post on the subject, here. (Inspired by Jonah Goldberg and his recently published book, Liberal Fascism.) [UPDATE (02/11/08): See also this, by Thomas Sowell.]

Related posts at Liberty Corner include:
Calling a Nazi a Nazi” (12 Mar 2006)
Things to Come” (27 Jun 2007)
FDR and Fascism” (30 Sep 2007)
A Political Compass: Locating the United States” (13 Nov 2007)
The Modern Presidency: A Tour of American History since 1900” (01 Dec 2007)
Intellectuals and Capitalism” (15 Jan 2008)
Political Correctness” (29 Jan 2008)
The People’s Romance” (30 Jan 2008)
Fascism” (30 Jan 2008)

Election 2008: Fourth Forecast

My eighth forecast is here.

The Presidency – Method 1

Intrade posts State-by-State odds odds on the outcome of the presidential election in November. I assign all of a State’s electoral votes to the party whose nominee that is expected to win that State. Where the odds are 50-50, I split the State’s electoral votes between the two parties.

As of today, the odds point to this result:

Democrat, 300 electoral votes

Republican, 238 electoral votes

The Presidency – Method 2

I have devised a “secret formula” for estimating the share of electoral votes cast for the winner of the presidential election. (The formula’s historical accuracy is described in my second forecast.) The formula currently yields these estimates of the outcome this year’s presidential election [UPDATED 02/09/08 02/11/08]:

Democrat nominee — 261 to 302 EVs 228 to to 269 EVs 261 to 310 EVs

Republican nominee — 236 to 277 EVs 269 to 310 EVs 236 to 277 EVs

* * *

Both methods afford a better outlook for the GOP than the one given in my third forecast on December 12. [Today’s update of method 2, in fact, puts the GOP nominee in the lead.] The gain, I believe, is attributable mainly to John McCain’s success in the race for the GOP nomination; that is, McCain is perceived as the Republican most likely to beat the Democrat nominee. The gain is attributable, also, to the strong (if no longer overwhelming) possibility that Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat nominee. Clinton, in spite of her strength within her party, probably would be a weaker nominee than Obama. The update of 02/11/08 reflects Obama’s strong showing over the past weekend (sweeping four Dem primaries/caucuses) and the expectation that he will do well in tomorrow’s “Potomac primary” (i.e., the primaries in MD, DC, and VA).

I believe that future forecasts will become more favorable to the GOP nominee (i.e., McCain). The current forecast doesn’t take into account the damage that the acrimonious race between Clinton and Obama will do to both. If Obama sweeps tomorrow’s races and soon thereafter becomes the “presumptive” Democrat nominee, Democrats may quickly unite behind him. Moreover, [T]he ugly reality of a[n] Clinton or Obama presidency will should offset the present disaffection for McCain among some conservatives. As conservatives “return to the fold,” McCain’s chances will rise. But Obama is looming as the man to beat in November 2008.

* * *

Congress

UPDATED 02/09/08: Democrats will pick up four Senate seats, one each in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. The gain will change the balance from 51 Democrats (including Lieberman and Sanders, both nominally independent) and 49 Republicans to 55 Democrats and 45 Republicans.

The House? Later.

* * *
How did I do in 2004? See this and this.

Nonprofits and Charity

Guest post:

There are interesting items at the First Things blog (like a recent commentary by Robert Spencer on slavery in western and eastern cultures). The post that particularly piqued my interest was the one by Charles Chaput, the Catholic Archbishop of Denver, discussing Colorado HB 1080, a law promoted by the leftist Anti-Defamation League. Ostensibly an “anti-discriminatory” measure it is in fact aimed at preventing the

legitimate freedom of religiously affiliated nonprofits to hire employees of like faith to carry out their mission. In practice, HB 1080 would strike down the freedom of Catholic Charities to preferentially hire Catholics for its leadership jobs if it takes state funds.

Now one may ask why nonprofits would want to enter into that devil’s bargain in the first place. Chaput, speaking for his own church, says that

Catholic Charities can always decline public funds and continue its core mission with private money. In the Archdiocese of Denver, we’re ready to do exactly that. But the issues involved in HB 1080, and the troubling agenda behind it, are worth some hard reflection.

But the “big lesson” behind all this is that

Religious groups have been delivering services to the poor a great deal longer than the government. The government uses religious social service agencies precisely because they’re good at it and typically more cost-effective in their work than the government could be.

Chaput is well known for his outspokenness on moral issues. But perhaps even more surprising is this unambiguous endorsement of market economics.

Sadly, Catholics have bought heavily into statist/socialist economic schemes since the late 19th century. Just look at the northern urban trade union vote which caused many Catholics to support the New Deal and subsequent Democratic policies. No doubt much of this was well intentioned—unlike outright utopianism which is less interested in charity and more interested in arrogant social engineering. Still, the damage has been done (for background on this, see “The Rise of the Religious Left,” from The Wall Street Journal).

One might think that there is something analogous, after all, between the social gospel and socialism. Yet there can be no doubt that collectivism involves a very different set of assumptions from the Christian creed. While traditional Christianity is not an individualist creed (it can never endorse anarchism) it rests on the fundamental belief in individual responsibility, which is the antithesis of collective virtue/collective guilt ideologies. When, for example, clerics embraced “liberation theology” and similar theories in the 1960s and ’70s, the core issues fell by the wayside and one saw (at least until recently) prominent Catholic prelates endorsing Democratic leftist politicians.

These things will take a long time to sort out. Statism is really nothing new to western culture—though it has become more obnoxious over time. And for most religious traditionalists moral issues will still trump economic ones (either way), since even a good social order will fall part without ethical fortitude. Nevertheless, it’s about time that Christians recovered not only their spiritual but the best of their socio-political heritage.

For related comments, see “The Economic Divide on the Right: Distributists vs. Capitalists.”

Waterboarding, Torture, and Defense

I stipulate, only for the sake of argument, that waterboarding is torture.

Some argue that torture is unconscionable — even when done sparingly, as a defensive act, and not for its own sake — because it “lowers us to the enemy’s level.” This is non-torture for its own sake, regardless of the consequences of such a policy: the killing and maiming of innocents.

Others conjure the specter of rampant torture in their zeal to discredit the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism. I disregard such views because those who hold them are either dupes, or enemies themselves, if they are not simply pseudo-rational academics.

The question remains whether we should commit (or allow) isolated, controlled acts of self-defense that might be called torture. I say “yes,” for these reasons:

  • In spite of our national descent into statism, we (most of us) remain morally superior to our terrorist enemies.
  • I do not believe that our “national character” can be diminished by isolated, controlled acts of torture. (Just as I do not believe, for example, that our “national character” was diminished by our wise use of the A-bomb to end of World War II and avert millions of casualties, Japanese and American.)
  • It is folly to tell our enemies that we will not do what it takes to defend ourselves. [UPDATE, 02/13/08: Like this.]
  • If we fail to defend ourselves, we enable our enemies to harm us and gain more influence in the world. Those are not conditions in which we (most of us) would choose to live.

Related posts:
Torture and Morality” (04 Dec 2005)
A Rant about Torture” (16 Feb 2006)
Taking on Torture” (15 Aug 2006)
Torture, Revisited” (26 Dec 2007)

The Poor Get Richer

Mark Perry (Carpe Diem) points to some research about economic mobility, and concludes

that more than 2 out 3 Americans born a generation ago have already surpassed their parents’ income, and more than 4 of every 5 Americans born to parents in the bottom fifth during the late 1960s and early 1970s are better off than their parents.

I told you so:
Why Class Warfare Is Bad for Everyone” (21 Sep 2004)
Fighting Myths with Facts” (27 Sep 2004)
Debunking More Myths of Income Inequality” (13 Oct 2004)
Ten Commandments of Economics” (02 Dec 2005)
More Commandments of Economics” (06 Dec 2005)
Zero-Sum Thinking” (29 Dec 2005)
On Income Inequality” (09 Mar 2006)
The Causes of Economic Growth” (08 Apr 2006)
The Last(?) Word about Income Inequality” (21 Jul 2006)
Your Labor Day Reading” (04 Sep 2006)
Status, Spite, Envy, and Income Redistribution” (04 Sep 2006)

Stay at Home in November?

It has been suggested that conservative voters should stay home in November if John McCain is the Republican nominee.

It’s true that McCain is not a conservative. He is, rather, an idiosyncratic statist who holds conservative and “liberal” views, as his fancy strikes him.

However…inasmuch as McCain would face either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama — both of whom are abysmally “liberal” — abstention would be akin to self-flagellation. It’s hard to see how McCain, abetted by a Democrat-controlled Congress, could do worse than Clinton or Obama, abetted by the same Congress. I know of no issue on which I prefer Clinton or Obama to McCain. McCain, at least, would not surrender to terrorists, would strive to maintain strong defenses, and would make better (if not ideal) judicial appointments.

It’s easy to say, as some do, that losing would be good for the GOP, because losing might cause the GOP to rethink its course and return to its limited-government philosophy. On the other hand, in its zeal to recapture the White House and Congress, the GOP might just become more “Democrat light” than it already is.

In any event, if McCain heads the Republican ticket, the choice for conservatives will be between a “bad” GOP nominee and a “terrible” Democrat nominee. “Bad” being better than “terrible,” I would hold my nose and vote for McCain.

P.S. Sensible bloggers agree with me.

P.P.S. Another sensible blogger who agrees (with links to others, as well).

P.P.P.S. And another two (make it three).

On the other hand: This is about as wrong-headed as it gets, not only with respect to withholding a vote from McCain but also with respect to the nature of an Obama presidency. Obama in the White House and Democrats in control of Congress: a prescription for economic ruin and defenselessness.

I’m for Romney…I Think

Answer the 10 questions here to compare the views of six presidential candidates (four Republicans and two Democrats) with your views on the issues covered. There are no questions about such issues as McCain-Feingold, judicial appointments, or defense spending in general, as opposed to the war in Iraq.

Given that caveat, here is how the candidates stack up against my views on 10 issues:

1. Ron Paul – 80% agreement
2. Mitt Romney – 80%
3. Mick Huckabee – 70%
4. John McCain – 60%
5. Hillary Clinton – 20%
6. Barack Obama – 10%

I had previously ruled out Ron Paul, who says the right things on most issues, but who also keeps bad company. That leaves me with Romney. I’m surprised.

Politics and Experience

Thomas Sowell deflates Hillary Clinton and John McCain’s claims of “experience”; for example:

Whether in Arkansas or in Washington, Hillary Clinton has spent decades parlaying her husband’s political clout into both money and power. How did that benefit anybody but the Clintons?

For those people whose memories are short, go on the Internet and look up Whitewater, the confidential raw FBI files on hundreds of Republican politicians that somehow — nobody apparently knows how — ended up in the Clinton White House illegally.

Look up the sale of technology to China that can enable them to more accurately hit American cities with nuclear missiles. Then look up the money that found its way to the Clintons through devious channels.

Look up Bill Clinton’s firing of every single U.S. Attorney in the country, which of course included those who were investigating him for corruption as governor of Arkansas.

It would be hard to find two people less trustworthy than the Clintons or with a longer trail of sleaze and slime.

Senator John McCain is also touting his “experience,” both in politics and in the military.

Senator McCain’s political record is full of zig-zags summarized in the word “maverick.” That is another way of saying that you don’t know what he is going to do next, except that it will be in the interests of John McCain.

While you are on the Internet looking up the record of the Clintons, look up John McCain’s record, including the Keating Five, the McCain-Feingold bill, and the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill.

John McCain’s military service was both honorable and heroic. But let’s not confuse that with experience relevant to being President of the United States.

John McCain was a naval aviator, an important and demanding job. But a naval aviator is not like Patton or Eisenhower.

Politics and experience have almost nothing in common these days. We have, on the one hand, professional politicians whose working lives are dedicated to feeding at the public trough for the power, glory, and graft it brings them. We have, on the other hand, a gullible public that mistakes politicians for “real people” and political experience for real experience.

Hillary Clinton was born and raised in comfortable circumstances. Most of her adult life has been spent as a lobbyist, political aide, political appointee (by which I include her partnership in the Rose Law firm), politician’s enabler, and then U.S. Senator.

In John McCain we have a son and grandson of admirals. (There is privilege in that, believe me.) McCain’s 54 years in the Naval Academy, Navy, and Congress was punctuated (almost 30 years ago) by a brief fling in the private sector (courtesy of his second wife’s father).

What “real people” need are politicians with real experience. The experience of having parents who sometimes struggled to make ends meet. The experience of having done the same for at least a few years of one’s adulthood. The experience of having owned and run a business without a public or private subsidy. The experience of having seen, close up, the inner workings of government bureaucracies, in all their cumbersome ineptitude.

Real experience isn’t enough to qualify anyone for political office, but it’s a start. It’s a necessary condition, if not a sufficient one.

Blogging Fodder

I’m working on a post titled “Is There Such a Thing as Society?” There is, but it certainly isn’t coterminous with the nation. In evidence of that point are the City Council of Berkeley, California, and lawyer-terrorist Lynne Stewart — sociopaths all. More later.

The Misunderstood Race Issue

Guest post:

Though the Democrats have tried to put a lid on the race issue in their campaign, it will work itself out again before too long. Obama may have better people skills. He doesn’t have that look of perpetual dyspepsia that Clinton evinces, which is a symptom of her ill-concealed arrogance. But Obama is black after all, and if you think that doesn’t matter to liberal Democrats then you’ve misunderstood the race issue. In fact, it’s been misunderstood for decades.

First lesson: Racialism is not ipso facto synonymous with conservatism. It is not based on principle but on irrational prejudice. If any group is really trying to look beyond the divisive race issue it is conservatives, particularly social conservatives. On the other hand, I’ve met many liberals who were bigots. As it turns out, most of their bigotry is directed at blacks, for unique reasons that seem to have to do with culture and history (see Sowell for more information). As such, Jews as well as other whites can hold prejudiced views against blacks. This point also belies long-standing stereotypes about Jews, race and anti-Semitism.

Second lesson: The mainstream has traditionally equated anti-Jewishness with racialism, yet there are plenty of people, including non-whites, who are anti-Jewish without harboring any other racial views. Hatred of Jews is motivated more by conspiratorial views of society than biological theories, hence the recurring tendency of the Left to indulge in anti-Semitism. By that same token there is a brand of white ethnocentrism which is inclusive towards Jews (e.g., Jared Taylor’s American Renaissance movement). Finally, a serious belief in equality means that blacks, possessing human nature like everyone else, are just as liable to bigotry as whites (see a good commentary on this point from a theologically conservative perspective).

Third lesson: As Liberty Corner has pointed out in the past, left-liberal views on race manifest themselves in the form of socialist paternalism. Maybe it should be called “compassionate racism.” According to this, what are seen as disruptive tendencies on the part of many blacks are deemed inevitable (which they are not) and must be pandered to (which they should not) for to sake of statist welfare policies. This is because what motivates liberal elitists is not concern for blacks, any more than Marxist leaders are concerned for the “plight of the worker.” It’s about the manipulation of people for the sake of political power. So if there is any difference between racists on the left and on the right, it is that the former are sanctimonious hypocrites who preach equality while covertly segregating themselves economically and socially from blacks.

Fourth lesson: But what about racism on the “right”? Does my model still hold? I maintain that it does. Again, racial bigotry is an irrational response to physical or social differences in other people. Ideologically it stems from the nationalism and materialism of the 19th century; views anathema to a traditional Christian outlook. This fact explains how someone like Karl Marx shared the same bigoted racial views as his ultra-nationalist contemporaries. I’ve found that right-wingers who back populist/nativist political movements are often social libertines. They may be against big government, gun-control, immigration, etc. but are to the left on issues like abortion, euthanasia, traditional marriage, and public morality. Their thinking is emotive rather than principled. This may explain why Hitler’s political appeal in 1930s Germany cut across traditional political boundaries, since he catered to the short-sighted, hedonistic sentiments of both socialists and radical nationalists.

In conclusion, it is clear that the race issue in politics has been long misunderstood… perhaps deliberately so.

Choices

It seems likely that, come November, voters will face with a choice between John McCain and Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama (or suicide).

The last time voters faced such an abysmal choice in a presidential election was in 1996: Clinton (the other one) vs. Bob (tax collector for the welfare state) Dole. Before that, in 1992, there was G.H.W. (read my lips) Bush vs. the other Clinton and H. Ross Pee-rot (as it’s pronounced in Texas). Suicide was very appealing in those days.

How about 1972? Nixon vs. McGovern: sleaze vs. socialism. Don’t like that choice? Try 1968, with Nixon vs. Humphrey vs. Wallace: sleaze vs. socialism vs. state-enforced segregation.

That’s as far back as I care to go on this trip down memory lane. If I go back too far, I’ll remember that I voted for LBJ in 1964. Argh!

Fascism

David N. Mayer (MayerBlog) parses “fascism.” He uses the term

in its broadest sense, as a political philosophy holding among its essential precepts the claims that individuals have no inherent rights, and that their interests are subordinate to, and therefore may be sacrificed for the sake of, the presumed collective good, whatever it’s called – “society,” “the race,” “the state,” the “Volk,” “the nation,” “the people,” “the proletariat,” “the common good,” or “the public interest.” Purists may object that what I’m really calling “fascism” would be more properly termed collectivism, and that my use of the term fascism is not only historically incorrect but also deliberately provocative – and to a great extent, they’d be right. In defending my use of the term, however, I’d note that as originally coined by Benito Mussolini, the fascist dictator of 1930s Italy, the term referred to the fasces, the bundle of rods wrapped around an axe carried by the lictors who guarded government officials in ancient Rome, where it symbolized the sovereign authority of the state. In this original sense of the term, fascism thus is roughly the equivalent of “statism,” the form of collectivism in which the entity known as “the state” holds the highest political authority in society…. I have an additional justification for using the term fascism. Notwithstanding the arguments of political scientists – who would distinguish fascism from other collectivist –isms such as communism, socialism, or national socialism (Nazism) – these distinctions are really irrelevant because all these forms of collectivism are equally pernicious to, and destructive of, individual rights and freedom. Leftists like to use the terms fascism or fascist as pejoratives because they naively believe that socialism is somehow less evil than collectivism of “the right” – that the murder of millions of people killed by Lenin and Stalin in the Soviet Union, by Mao in Red China, or by Pol Pot in communist Cambodia somehow was less evil than the murder of millions of people killed by Hitler’s regime in Nazi Germany or Mussolini’s regime in fascist Italy. Leftists have no legitimate claim on the truth, and neither do they have any monopoly on use of the terms fascism or fascist as pejoratives.

Mayer, in a typically long post at his excellent blog, goes on to tackle the

“Four Fascisms” of 2008 … : (1) Eco-Fascism, the tyranny of radical environmentalists, including the global-warming hoax and other myths propagated by “green” activists as a rationale for imposing their agenda on us by force; (2) Nanny-State Fascism, the tyranny of the health police, who seek to turn everyone into wards of the state, including the movement pushing for “universal” health care – that is, government monopolization of the health care industry (what used to be called, and still is, socialized medicine); (3) Demopublican/ Replicrat Fascism, the tyranny of the two-party political system in the United States, particularly dangerous in 2008 as an election year; and last, (4) Islamo-Fascism, the danger of militant, fundamentalist Islam to the United States and the rest of the civilized world.

Go there and read. All of it. You many not agree with Mayer in every detail (I don’t), but he aims at the right targets and hits them hard.

Related posts:
FDR and Fascism” (20 Sep 2007)
A Political Compass: Locating the United States” (13 Nov 2007)
The Modern Presidency: A Tour of American History since 1900” (01 Dec 2007)

The People’s Romance

The preceding post is about the “libertarian” Left (LL) and its flirtation with state-imposed political correctness. The LL, while claiming to be anti-statist, wants all of us to behave in certain ways — ways that the LL deems acceptable, of course. The LL’s attitude reminds me of Daniel Klein’s essay, “The People’s Romance: Why People Love Government (as Much as They Do).” Here are some relevant excerpts of that essay:

Government creates common, effectively permanent institutions, such as the streets and roads, utility grids, the postal service, and the school system. In doing so, it determines and enforces the setting for an encompassing shared experience—or at least the myth of such experience. The business of politics creates an unfolding series of battles and dramas whose outcomes few can dismiss as unimportant. National and international news media invite citizens to envision themselves as part of an encompassing coordination of sentiments—whether the focal point is election-day results, the latest effort in the war on drugs, or emergency relief to hurricane victims — and encourage a corresponding regard for the state as a romantic force. I call the yearning for encompassing coordination of sentiment The People’s Romance (henceforth TPR)….

TPR helps us to understand how authoritarians and totalitarians think. If TPR is a principal value, with each person’s well-being thought to depend on everyone else’s proper participation, then it authorizes a kind of joint, though not necessarily absolute, ownership of everyone by everyone, which means, of course, by the government. One person’s conspicuous opting out of the romance really does damage the others’ interests….

TPR lives off coercion—which not only serves as a means of clamping down on discoordination, but also gives context for the sentiment coordination to be achieved….

[N]ested within the conventional view that government is not a mammoth apparatus of coercion is the tenet that society is an organization to which we belong. Either on the view that we constitute and control the government (“we are the government”) or on the view that by deciding to live in the polity we choose voluntarily to abide by the government’s rules (“no one is forcing you to stay here”), the social democrat holds that taxation and interventions such as a minimum wage law are not coercive. The government-rule structure, as they see it, is a matter of “social contract” persisting through time and binding on the complete collection of citizens. The implication is that the whole of society is a club, a collectively owned property, administered by the government….

Members of the LL would hotly dispute the idea that “society is an organization to which we belong” and “a club, a collectively owned property, administered by the government.” Yet, at the same time, they seem to endorse state action that denies liberty in the name of liberty. Liberty is all right, in their view, as long as it produces outcomes of which they approve.

Orwellian” and “doublethink” come to mind.

Political Correctness

“Political correctness” (or “politically correct,” as an adjectival phrase) refers to

language, ideas, policies, or behavior seen as seeking to minimize offense to racial, cultural, or other identity groups.

PCness exists at three connected levels: the individual, voluntary associations, and state action (which draws on and influences the other two).

1. At the individual level, PCness is an exaggerated case of good manners. A PC person refrains from speaking or behaving in ways that might offend or seem to denigrate an “identity group,” even at the expense of stereotyping and patronizing members of such groups (e.g., singling out for special attention, heaping fulsome praise).

2. At the next level, we find voluntary associations (e.g., churches, charities, political parties, academic faculties), whose members, because they share — or profess to share — certain ideas about “equality” and “social justice,” feel bound by those ideas to adopt language, ideas, policies, and behavior that stereotype, patronize, and give special treatment to certain “identity groups.” Some voluntary associations are organized solely for the purpose of seeking legislative and judicial enactment of special treatment, under the guise of “equal protection.”

3. This brings us to the “highest” level: state action. Here, individuals, members of voluntary associations, and government officials (armed with the power of the state) seek to advance the cause of special treatment through legislative and judicial processes, so that such treatment becomes a legal norm, even if it is not a social one.

4. Finally, state action is taken as a moral command by those who are easily led and eager-to-please, thus reinforcing PCness and legitimating its expansion at all three levels.

That PCness is a widespread phenomenon proves nothing about its rightness and a lot about human nature and the coercive power of the state. In spite of that, some libertarians, who (understandably) are anxious to distance themselves from Ron Paul and the Rockwell crowd, have become apologists for PCness. Will Wilkinson, for example, suggests that

most PC episodes mocked and derided by the right are not state impositions. They are generally episodes of the voluntary social enforcement of relatively newly established moral/cultural norms.

Wilkinson grossly simplifies the complex dynamics of PCness, which I sketch above. His so-called “newly established … norms” are, in fact, norms that have been embraced by insular élites (e.g., academics and think-tank denizens like Wilksinson) and then foisted upon “the masses” by the élites in charge of government and government-controlled institutions (e.g., tax-funded universities). Thus it is that proposals to allow same-sex marriage fare poorly when they are submitted to voters. Similarly, the “right” to an abortion, even 35 years after Roe v. Wade, remains far from universally accepted and meets greater popular resistance with the passage of time.

Roderick Long is another “libertarian” who endorses PCness:

Another issue that inflames many libertarians against political correctness is the issue of speech codes on campuses. Yes, many speech codes are daft. But should people really enjoy exactly the same freedom of speech on university property that they would rightfully enjoy on their own property? Why, exactly?

If the answer is that the purposes of a university are best served by an atmosphere of free exchange of ideas — is there no validity to the claim that certain kinds of speech might tend, through an intimidating effect, to undermine just such an atmosphere?…

At my university, several white fraternity members were recently disciplined for dressing up, some in Klan costumes and others in blackface, and enacting a mock lynching. Is the university guilty of violating their freedom of expression? I can’t see that it is. Certainly those students have a natural right to dress up as they please and engage in whatever playacting they like, so long as they conduct themselves peacefully. But there is no natural right to be a student at Auburn University.

Long’s argument is clever, but fallacious. The purposes of a university have nothing to do with the case. Speech is speech.* Long, a member of Auburn’s faculty, is rightly disgusted by the actions of the fraternity members he mentions, but disgust does not excuse the suppression of speech by a State university. It is true that there is no “natural right” to be a student at Auburn, but there is, likewise, no “natural right” not to be offended.

Long describes himself as a “left-libertarian market anarchist” (whatever that is). Interestingly, he also writes for LewRockwell.com, which is intertwined with Rockwell’s Ludwig von Mises Institute. It is ironic that Lew Rockwell, the Mises Institute, and those who affiliate with them are in bad odor with a long list of bloggers who characterize themselves as libertarians of one kind or another (e.g., here). Their displeasure centers on Ron Paul, his notorious newsletters (thought to have been written or co-written by Rockwell), Paul’s supporters at the Institute, and (for good measure) the Institute itself.

In an earlier post, I noted my agreement with David Friedman’s view of the affray:

There are a lot of different things going on in libertarian reactions to Ron Paul in general and the quotes from the Ron Paul newsletters in particular. One of them, I think, is a culture clash between different sorts of libertarians….

Loosely speaking, I think the clash can be described as between people who see non-PC speech as a positive virtue and those who see it as a fault–or, if you prefer, between people who approve of offending liberal sensibilities (“liberal” in the modern sense of the term) and those who share enough of those sensibilities to prefer not to offend them. The former group see the latter as wimps, the latter see the former as boors.

I added that “a bunch of moralist scolds have leaped at the opportunity to preach their respective, often contradictory, and sometimes wacky visions of libertarian purity.” I now see that there’s more to it. Here is Steven Horwitz, for example:

Yes, legislation like the Civil Rights Act of 1964 involved some interference with private property and the right of association, but it also did away with a great deal of state-sponsored discrimination and was, in my view, a net gain for liberty.

Well, some parts of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, together with its progeny — the Civil Rights Acts of 1968 and 1991 — did advance liberty, but many parts did not. A principled libertarian would acknowledge that, and parse the Acts into their libertarian and anti-libertarian components. A moral scold who really, really wants the state to impose his attitudes on others would presume — as Horwitz does — to weigh legitimate gains (e.g., voting rights) against unconscionable losses (e.g., property rights and the right of association). But presumptuousness comes naturally to Horwitz because he stands high above reality, in his ivory tower.

Will Wilkinson is sympatico with Horwitz:

Government attempts to guarantee the worth of our liberties by recognizing positive rights to a minimum income or certain services like health care often (but not always) undermine the framework of market and civil institutions most likely to enhance liberty over the long run, and should be limited. But this is really an empirical question about what really does maximize individuals’ chances of formulating and realizing meaningful projects and lives.

Within this framework, racism, sexism, etc., which strongly limit the useful exercise of liberty are clear evils. Now, I am ambivalent about whether the state ought to step in and do anything about it.

Wilkinson, like Horwitz, is quite willing to submit to the state (or have others do so), where state action passes some kind of cost-benefit test. Wilkinson, unlike Horwitz, seems to ignore the fact that the state has tried already to do something about racism, sexism, etc., in the Civil Rights Acts. To the extent that balancing tests are relevant to the question of liberty, the Civil Rights Acts have been costly (both economically and socially) and, in the end, both futile and inimical to the comity of the races and sexes. Moreover, as both Horwitz and Wilkinson fail to acknowledge, state action is a blunt instrument, in that it penalizes many for the acts of the (relatively) few.

In any event, what more could the state do than it has done already? Well, there is always “hate crime” legislation, which (as Nat Hentoff points out) is tantamount to “thought crime” legislation. Perhaps that would satisfy Horwitz, Wilkinson, and their brethren on the “libertarian” Left. And, if that doesn’t do the trick, there is always Cass Sunstein’s proposal for policing thought on the internet. Sunstein, at least, doesn’t pretend to be a libertarian.

O brave new world that hath such philosophers in’t!
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* Except when it really isn’t speech; for example: sit-ins (trespass), child pornography (sexual exploitation of minors), and divulging military secrets (treason, in fact if not in name).