I Told You So

Just about three weeks ago, I debunked the notion that the “upsurge” in new voter registrations bode well for Democrats. As I said then:

…Of course, voter registrations are spiking now; the election is coming and registration deadlines are looming. Of course registrations are at an all-time high; the U.S. is more populous than ever. Of course the Democrats are claiming that the new registrations help them; we hear that every four years because Democrats seem to think that new voters prefer Democrats, though there’s little evidence for that in the results of presidential elections in recent decades. In fact, the “emotionally intense” 1968 election — when new, draft-age voters presumably favored anti-war Humphrey over tricky Dick and George the segregationist — resulted in a trouncing of Humphrey, the only liberal in the field.

Well, as I write this, Bush is pulling in 51 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what he’ll have when all’s said and done. Four years ago, Bush pulled only 48 percent of the popular vote. So much for all those new Democrats. As Fox News says: “2004: Not the Year of the Youth Vote.”

Oh, and about my final election projections. I think I was right on target. Kerry holds a slim lead in one State that I called for Bush — Nevada — but only 18 percent of the precincts have reported there. Everything else seems to be going according to my final projections, including the Senate races.

I’m not going to stay up and wait for all the States to be called. I’ll claim my Nostradamus Award later this morning.

The Real Social Security Issue

The solvency or insolvency of the so-called Social Security trust fund is irrelvant. The trust fund is an artifact of bookkeeping, not a real asset. So, forget the trust fund and focus on what really matters: taxes paid in and benefits paid out.

Taxes paid into Social Security don’t yield real returns. Social Security is merely a transfer-payment Ponzi scheme that’s going to begin claiming victims in about 14 years, when benefits begin to outrun taxes.

Private accounts, on the other hand, would yield real returns. Thus, investments in private accounts would provide income that doesn’t depend on transfer payments.

The only question, then, is how to make the transition from the present Ponzi scheme to a system of private accunts.

Let’s Talk about Intelligence

I ran across an article on “Theories of Multiple Intelligence,” by Grady M. Towers, which was published in the Prometheus Society’s journal, Gift of Fire (Issue No. 33, September 1988). I know little about the measurement of intelligence and the controversies surrounding it. With that disclaimer, here are some bits I find fascinating:

We now know that there are two [kinds of intelligence]: one called fluid g, measured by culture fair tests such as the Raven Progressive Matrices or the LAIT, and another called crystallized g, measured by culture loaded tests like the Concept Mastery Test or the Miller Analogies Test. What we call g has been defined as the ability to “educe relations and correlates,” or in more everyday terms, the abilities for inductive (“relations”) and deductive (“correlates”) reasoning. Culture fair tests measure the ability to educe relations and correlates using abstract diagrams, and other material that requires only a minimum of formal learning. Culture loaded tests measure the ability to educe relations and correlates using learned and over learned material, such as vocabulary, algorithms for arithmetic or multiplication, recognition of common objects and their uses, etc. Ordinary IQ tests measure both kinds of intelligence, but not necessarily to the same degree; they are generally biased in favor of crystallized g.

The currently accepted relationship between these two kinds of ability is called the investment theory of intelligence. It says, in effect, that we are all born with a certain raw ability, or the eduction of relations and correlates, which can be measured with culture fair tests. As we get older, we “invest” this fluid g in certain kinds of judgment skills, such as those involved in doing a mathematical word problem, or parsing a sentence. When we are young, the theory goes, our formal educations are so much alike that we all invest our fluid g in much the same kinds of judgment skills. That means that our fluid intelligence and our crystallized intelligence are so similar at an early age that it’s almost impossible to tell them apart. After we leave school, however, we all begin to invest our fluid g abilities in different things. Measures of fluid g and crystallized g begin to draw apart. Those that invest their fluid g in school-like activities, such as accounting or law, continue to show intellectual growth on conventional (crystallized) IQ tests. Those that put their intelligence to work in other ways, such as becoming ranchers or artists, will not show the same intellectual growth, and may even show a decline in IQ on conventional measures of intelligence….

None of this would matter except that each kind of ability brings with it its own kind of cognitive style, its own kind of personality, and its own set of values. In fact, the contrast between persons gifted with fluid g and those gifted with crystallized g is so sharp that, with a little practice, most people find that they can learn to tell them apart at a glance. Those gifted with fluid g (LAIT) tend to be socially retiring, independent of the good opinion of others, analytical, interested in theoretical and scientific problems, and to dislike rigid systematization and routine. Those gifted primarily with crystallized g (conventional tests) tend to be sociable, quick in reactions, artistic, and to dislike logical and theoretical problems. And then there are those who are equally gifted with both kinds of ability, and tend to be mixtures of all these qualities….

In other words, there are those who can do, those who can teach, and those who can do both. In other-other words, don’t “misunderestimate” the intelligence of people who seem to lack “book smarts” and who talk like “regular people.”

Yeah, But What Does He Know?

Headline from AP, via Yahoo! News: “Scientist Stephen Hawking Decries Iraq War.” But Hawking is the guy who recently recanted his long-standing theory about black holes. If he doesn’t understand black holes, he surely doesn’t understand the truly complex phenomenon of military strategy.

Seeing the Handwriting

Charles Paul Freund, writing at reasononline more than two years ago, said:

…The U.S.’ actual intentions in Iraq may have very little—perhaps nothing—to do with the reasons that have been offered by the administration, either before the UN or in the domestic debate. The U.S. may actually be pursuing a strategy it is unwilling to articulate in public….

Getting rid of Saddam and installing a friendly government in his place would have immediate consequences, because it would give the U.S. a number of strategic options it currently lacks. For one thing, the U.S. could count on access to Iraq’s immense oil resources. To some critics on the left, Iraq’s oil is the whole purpose behind Bush’s bellicosity, because he wants to distribute it among his oil-industry cronies. But there is another possibility: Access to Iraqi oil would profoundly alter the U.S. role in the region, because it would alter the nation’s relationship with Saudi Arabia.

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have long been trapped in a relationship that neither party much likes. But because America needs lots of oil, and because the Saudis need security, the two nations have tried to find a way to deal with each other. The terror attacks have shaken this relationship of interdependence. Most of the hijackers on 9/11 came from Saudi Arabia, and much of the money being funneled into global terrorist networks reportedly originates from there as well. If the U.S. seeks ultimately to choke off the finances of Al Qaeda and groups like it, it must first do something about its dependence on Saudi oil. In that sense, the road to Riyadh runs through Baghdad.

So, perhaps, does the road to Tehran. According to numerous accounts, the mullahs’ control of Iran has been crumbling for months. Many Iranians have had enough of their failed revolution and their economic stagnation. They’ve had enough of being arrested for listening to music on the radio, and of being jailed for attending private gatherings where both men and women are present. Iran’s revolution is now reportedly so shaky that it may collapse even if the U.S. does nothing in the region. Were the U.S. to succeed in establishing a regime in adjacent Iraq that exhibited at least some democratic values and allowed greater personal freedoms, the fate of Iran’s ruling mullahs would probably be sealed, and the future of any future democratic government there bolstered.

A region that features at least relatively democratic regimes in both Iraq and Iran, a Saudi Arabia whose leverage on the West is greatly reduced, and, as Bush put it at the UN, “an independent and democratic Palestine,” however that might be achieved, would be a region where modern political values are advancing and retrograde dictatorship and theocracy are declining.

In his UN address, Bush hinted at the outlines of “a very different future” for the Middle East. As he put it, “The people of Iraq can shake off their captivity. They can one day join a democratic Afghanistan and a democratic Palestine, inspiring reforms throughout the Muslim world. These nations can show by their example that honest government, and respect for women, and the great Islamic tradition of learning can triumph in the Middle East and beyond.”…

Precisely. That’s about what I’ve been saying all along, most recently here:

…The invasion of Iraq was — and is — a means of removing an avowed enemy of the U.S. and gaining a base in the Middle East. If Bush wins re-election, watch the dominos fall in Syria and Iran — both of which are assuredly sponsors of terrorism….

Freund, you’re a genius.

(Thanks to Virginia Postrel for the pointer.)

French Hypocrisy of a Welcome Kind

The Washington Post reports:

French Push Limits in Fight On Terrorism

Wide Prosecutorial Powers Draw Scant Public Dissent

By Craig Whitlock

Washington Post Foreign Service

Tuesday, November 2, 2004; Page A01

PARIS — In many countries of Europe, former inmates of the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, have been relishing their freedom….

Not so in France, where four prisoners from the U.S. naval base were arrested as soon as they arrived home in July, and haven’t been heard from since. Under French law, they could remain locked up for as long as three years while authorities decide whether to put them on trial — a legal limbo that their attorneys charge is not much different than what they faced at Guantanamo.

Armed with some of the strictest anti-terrorism laws and policies in Europe, the French government has aggressively targeted Islamic radicals and other people deemed a potential terrorist threat. While other Western countries debate the proper balance between security and individual rights, France has experienced scant public dissent over tactics that would be controversial, if not illegal, in the United States and some other countries….

French counterterrorism officials say their preemptive approach has paid off, enabling them to disrupt plots before they are carried out and to prevent radical cells from forming in the first place. They said tips from informants and close cooperation with other intelligence services led them to thwart planned attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Paris, French tourist sites on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean and other targets.

“There is a reality today: Under the cover of religion there are individuals in our country preaching extremism and calling for violence,” Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin said at a recent meeting of Islamic leaders in Paris. “It is essential to be opposed to it together and by all means.”

Thomas M. Sanderson, a terrorism expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said France has combined its tough law enforcement strategy with a softer diplomatic campaign in the Middle East designed to bolster ties with Islamic countries.

“You do see France making an effort to cast itself as the friendly Western power,” as distinct from the United States, he said. “When it comes to counterterrorism operations, France is hard-core. . . . But they are also very cognizant of what public diplomacy is all about.”

France has embraced a law enforcement strategy that relies heavily on preemptive arrests, ethnic profiling and an efficient domestic intelligence-gathering network. French anti-terrorism prosecutors and investigators are among the most powerful in Europe, backed by laws that allow them to interrogate suspects for days without interference from defense attorneys.

The nation pursues such policies at a time when France has become well known in the world for criticizing the United States for holding suspected terrorists at Guantanamo without normal judicial protections. French politicians have also loudly protested the U.S. decision to invade Iraq, arguing that it has exacerbated tensions with the Islamic world and has increased the threat of terrorism.

Despite the political discord over Iraq, France’s intelligence and counterterrorism officials say they work closely with their American counterparts on terrorism investigations….

It’s their country, their rules. C’est la vie.

A Pleasant Surprise

From Reuters, via Yahoo! News:

U.S. Justice Allows Challengers at Ohio Polls

By James Vicini

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens (news – web sites) Tuesday allowed Republicans to challenge voter qualifications at the polls in Ohio, a key battleground state that could determine the presidential election.

Stevens acted on an emergency request shortly before polls opened in Ohio and across the nation. He refused to set aside a U.S. appeals court order that allowed political parties to send challengers to polling places across the state….

One More Reason to Vote for Bush

I offered a few reasons here. One more just reared its ugly head:



Osama bin Laden’s script writer.

So I lied when I said I wouldn’t post any more about candidate Bush. Sue me.

The Eeyore Party

You read it here first — I think. I have dubbed the Democrat Party the Eeyore Party because it’s the party of doubt and pessimism. As it says at a Winnie-the-Pooh site:

Eeyore [is] a very gloomy, blue-gray donkey….

Red State, Blue State

I like the new political color-coding scheme that has become the norm since the 2000 election. That is, Red States are Republican and Blue States are Democrat. It sure beats the old scheme, in which the incumbent party was Blue and the challenging party was Red. That’s too hard to keep up with.

Think about recent history. In the election of 1976, Republicans were Blue and Democrats were Red. But because Carter was elected in 1976, the color scheme for the 1980 election had Republicans as Red and Democrats as Blue. Then Reagan was elected, so the color scheme for the 1984 election had Republicans as Blue and Democrats as Red. It stayed that way until the 1996 and 2000 elections, when Republicans were Red and Democrats were Blue. It should have changed after the 2000 election, but most political analysts — wisely — decided to stick with the Republican-Red and Democrat-Blue theme.

It’s a more fitting color scheme, anyway. Republicans are the party of positive thinking — as in “We won’t stand for any more of this crap; we’re coming to get you. We’re not slowing down our economy just because some pseudo-scientists mistakenly think that global warming is a bad thing caused by humans.” Red — an aggressive color — is definitely Republican.

Democrats are the party of doubt and pessimism. Blue suits the Eeyore Party.

A Reason to Like Tom Wolfe

I’ve read only one of Tom Wolfe’s novels — A Man in Full — which I found overblown and overpraised. But I forgave Mr. Wolfe my disappointment in his writing when I read this:

“Here is an example of the situation in America,” [Wolfe] says: “Tina Brown wrote in her column that she was at a dinner where a group of media heavyweights were discussing, during dessert, what they could do to stop Bush. Then a waiter announces that he is from the suburbs, and will vote for Bush. And … Tina’s reaction is: ‘How can we persuade these people not to vote for Bush?’ I draw the opposite lesson: that Tina and her circle in the media do not have a clue about the rest of the United States. You are considered twisted and retarded if you support Bush in this election. I have never come across a candidate who is so reviled. Reagan was sniggered it, but this is personal, real hatred.

“Indeed, I was at a similar dinner, listening to the same conversation, and said: ‘If all else fails, you can vote for Bush.’ People looked at me as if I had just said: ‘Oh, I forgot to tell you, I am a child molester.’ I would vote for Bush if for no other reason than to be at the airport waving off all the people who say they are going to London if he wins again. Someone has got to stay behind.”…

You tell ’em, Tom.

"Forgiving" Youthful Error

A young man from Oz posted a rather bizarre comment on a blog that I read daily. That led me to the young man’s blog, where I found this:

This is my thoughts on Writing and Politics. This blog also includes reviews on movies, albums etc and my general thoughts….

Hi my name is B******* S****, I’m and 18 year old from Sydney Australia. There are basically two sides to me, writing and politics. I write horror, thriller and poetry, and it usually contains some sort of inner meaning about life or humanity. With politics, I am a passionate left-wing blogger, that promotes treating everyone with respect and compassion….

…[T]here are so many pro-Bush blogs out there backing Bush up, but even bloggers on the civil rights/anti-bush side, we seem to be inherantly biased. Though I think the difference is, although we are biased, I speak the truth. My biased opinion is not wrong because it is biased, I have gained my opinion from the truth. Bush bloggers have an opinion, however racist, but it is based on lies. Bush lied to the world when he said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. He lied when he said he would do anything to capture Saddam Hussein. Bush bloggers are just puppets to the Fox new channel….

Even those among you who sometimes wrestle with spelling, punctuation, grammar, syntax, and logic can see the errors in those three quotations. Do those errors mean that the young man is stupid? Not necessarily, though his IQ is almost certainly quite a bit lower than George Bush’s — a fact that the young man probably doesn’t like to admit. Does the third quotation mean that he is a confirmed left-wing bigot? Not necessarily; he may simply be going through a “rebellious phase” that’s common in young adults.

But I lost my tolerance for the young man’s mental deficit and youthful foibles when I read a post in which he enthuses about bin Laden’s latest message:

…He [bin Laden] then told of his inspiration for the September 11 attacks saying “As I watched the destroyed towers in Lebanon, it occurred to me to punish the unjust the same way … to destroy towers in America so that it can taste some of what we are tasting and to stop killing our children and women,” He was referring to an Israeli attack on towers in Lebanon that the US was accused of supporting. Maybe people will realise terrorism is running both ways.

Oops, I gave away the young man’s identity. How “stupid” of me.

Final Election Projections

I was planning to post this in the wee hours of election day, but — barring a catastrophe or news with a significant bearing on the election — I think this is how it will go:

THE PRESIDENCY

Bush will win 51 percent of the two-party popular vote.* He will take at least 279 and perhaps well more than 300 electoral votes. The range of uncertainty about electoral votes (EVs) reflects the apparent closeness of the race in many states.

Kerry faces likely-to-certain victory in the District of Columbia (3 EVs) and these 20 States: California (55 EVs), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Iowa (7), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10). That’s a total of 259 EVs for Kerry. The other 30 States, which are leaning-to-solid for Bush, have 279 EVs.

My method of estimating EVs as a function of popular-vote share indicates that Bush’s 51 percent of the two-party vote could yield as many as 318-358 EVs. (Go here and see method 3.) Such a result is possible if Bush takes the 279 EVs of all 30 leaning-to-solid States, then picks off Iowa (7) and Wisconsin (10) — where the races are tight — plus a combination of Hawaii (4), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), and Pennsylvania (21) — for a maximum of 352 EVs. I think that’s the best Bush can hope for, unless his popular-vote share is 52 percent or greater.

All of which assumes, of course, that Bush will take Florida (27 EVs) and Ohio (20). If Bush loses either, we may be in for a long, long night — and perhaps a long several weeks of recounts and court battles. If — in the end — Bush loses both Florida and Ohio, Kerry wins.

THE SENATE

Republicans are poised to pick up six Democrat seats: Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and South Dakota. Democrats will probably pick up three Republican seats: Alaska, Colorado, and Illinois. That’s a net GOP gain of three seats, for a 54-46 advantage in the Senate.

The best the Republicans can hope for is 55-45, with a come-from-behind win by Republican Murkowski in Alaska. However, that gain could be canceled by a come-from-behind win by Democrat Daschle in South Dakota.

__________

* I base my estimate of Bush’s popular-vote share on the presidential vote-share market at Iowa Electronic Markets, Rasmussen’s presidential tracking poll, and the “poll of polls” at RealClear Politics.

In the "Old News" Department

A headline in The Washington Times:Study finds press pro-Kerry.” Next thing you know, we’ll be told that the sun rises in the east.

Social Security is Unconstitutional

I’m breaking away from election-related posting to touch briefly on a subject close to my heart: the unconstitutionality of Social Security. The Social Security Administration tells us this:

Three Social Security cases made their way to the Supreme Court during its October 1936 term. One challenged the old-age insurance program (Helvering vs. Davis) and two challenged the unemployment compensation program of the Social Security Act. The Court would issue rulings on all three on the same day.

Helvering vs. Davis:

George P. Davis was a minor stockholder in the Edison Electric Illuminating Company. Edison, like every industrial employer in the nation, was readying itself to start paying the employers’ share of the payroll tax in January 1937. Mr. Davis objected to this arguing that by making this expenditure Edison was robbing him of part of his equity, so he sued Edison to prevent their compliance with the Social Security Act. The government intervened on Edison’s behalf and the Commissioner of the IRS (Mr. Helvering) took on the lawsuit.

The attorneys for Davis argued that the payroll tax was a new type of tax not listed in the Constitution’s tally of taxes, and so it was unconstitutional. At one point they even introduced into their argument the definitions of “taxes” from dictionaries in 1788 (the year before the Constitution was ratified) to prove how earnest they were in the belief that powers not explicitly granted in 1789 could not be created in 1935. Davis was also of the view that providing for the general welfare of the aged was a power reserved to the states. The government argued that this was too inflexible an interpretation of the powers granted to Congress, and (loosely) that if the country could not expand the interpretation of the Constitution as it stood in 1789 progress would be impossible and it would still be 1789.

Steward Machine Company:

In the Steward Machine Company case the unemployment compensation provisions of the Act were disputed. The Company dutifully paid its first unemployment tax installment ($46.14) and then sued the government to recover the payment, claiming the Social Security Act was unconstitutional. Steward made the same as points as Davis about the meaning of the word “tax,” and argued in addition that the unemployment compensation program could not qualify as “providing for the general welfare.”

Carmichael vs. Southern Coal & Coke Co. and Gulf States Paper:

This was also a case disputing the validity of the unemployment compensation program. In this variation the companies were challenging the state portion of the federal/state arrangement. Unwilling to pay their share of state unemployment compensation taxes the two companies sued the state of Alabama declaring that it was the Social Security Act, which they deemed unconstitutional, that gave Alabama its authority to tax them in this way and since they believed the Act to be invalid, they did not have to pay the tax. Alabama differed. It was again the same issues as in the two prior cases.

Mr. Justice Cardozo for the Court-

On May 24, 1937 the Supreme Court handed down its decision in the three cases. Justice Cardozo wrote the majority opinion in the first two cases….

Mirroring the situation in Congress when the legislation was considered, the old-age insurance program met relatively little disagreement. The Court ruled 7 to 2 in support of the old-age insurance program. And even though two Justices disagreed with the decision, no separate dissents were authored. The unemployment compensation provisions, by contrast, were hotly disputed within the Court, just as they had been the focus of most of the debate in Congress. The Court ruled 5 to 4 in support of the unemployment compensation provisions, and three of the Justices felt compelled to author separate dissents in the Steward Machine case and one Justice did so in the Southern Coal & Coke case.

Justice Cardozo wrote the opinions in Helvering vs. Davis and Steward Machine. After giving the 1788 dictionary the consideration he thought it deserved, he made clear the Court’s view on the scope of the government’s spending authority: “There have been statesman in our history who have stood for other views. . .We will not resurrect the contest. It is now settled by decision. The conception of the spending power advocated by Hamilton . . .has prevailed over that of Madison. . .” Arguing that the unemployment compensation program provided for the general welfare, Cardozo observed: “. . .there is need to remind ourselves of facts as to the problem of unemployment that are now matters of common knowledge. . .the roll of the unemployed, itself formidable enough, was only a partial roll of the destitute or needy. The fact developed quickly that the states were unable to give the requisite relief. The problem had become national in area and dimensions. There was need of help from the nation if the people were not to starve. It is too late today for the argument to be heard with tolerance that in a crisis so extreme the use of the moneys of the nation to relieve the unemployed and their dependents is a use for any purpose [other] than the promotion of the general welfare.”

And finally, he extended the reasoning to the old-age insurance program: “The purge of nation-wide calamity that began in 1929 has taught us many lessons. . . Spreading from state to state, unemployment is an ill not particular but general, which may be checked, if Congress so determines, by the resources of the nation. . . But the ill is all one or at least not greatly different whether men are thrown out of work because there is no longer work to do or because the disabilities of age make them incapable of doing it. Rescue becomes necessary irrespective of the cause. The hope behind this statute is to save men and women from the rigors of the poor house as well as from the haunting fear that such a lot awaits them when journey’s end is near.”

With these cases decided, Justice Stone could then dispose of the third case in short order. “Together the two statutes now before us embody a cooperative legislative effort by state and national governments, for carrying out a public purpose common to both, which neither could fully achieve without the cooperation of the other. The Constitution does not prohibit such cooperation.”….

It is no coincidence that the Supreme Court reversed its record of opposition to the New Deal when faced with the certainty that Congress would approve Roosevelt’s court-packing plan and dilute the authority of the sitting justices. As SSA tells it:

Despite the intense controversy the court-packing plan provoked, and the divided loyalties it produced even among the President’s supporters, the legislation appeared headed for passage, when the Court itself made a sudden shift that took the wind out of the President’s sails. In March 1937, in a pivotal case, Justice Roberts unexpectedly changed his allegiance from the conservatives to the liberals, shifting the balance on the Court from 5-4 against to 5-4 in favor of most New Deal legislation. In the March case Justice Roberts voted to uphold a minimum wage law in Washington state just like the one he had earlier found to be unconstitutional in New York state. Two weeks later he voted to uphold the National Labor Relations Act, and in May he voted to uphold the Social Security Act. This sudden change in the Court’s center of gravity meant that the pressure on the New Deal’s supporters lessened and they felt free to oppose the President’s plan. This sudden switch by Justice Roberts was forever after referred to as “the switch in time that saved nine.”

In the end, the Court decided wrongly to legalize Social Security by invoking Hamilton’s supposedly looser view of the powers vested in Congress, and by improperly interpreting the “general welfare” clause.

Madison — the “Father of the Constitution” — had this to say about the general welfare in Federalist No. 41:

Some who have denied the necessity of the power of taxation [to the Federal government] have grounded a very fierce attack against the Constitution, on the language on which it is defined. It has been urged and echoed that the power to “lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts, and excises, to pay the debts, and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States” amounts to an unlimited commission to exercise every power which may be alleged to be necessary for the common defense or general welfare. No stronger proof could be given of the distress under which these writers labor for objections, than their stooping to such a misconstruction….

For what purpose could the enumeration of particular powers be inserted, if these and all others were meant to be included in the preceding general power? Nothing is more natural or more common than first to use a general phrase, and then to explain and qualify by an enumeration of the particulars. But the idea of an enumeration of particulars which neither explain nor qualify the general meaning, and can have no other effect than to confound and mislead, is an absurdity … what would have been thought of that assembly, if, attaching themselves to these general expressions and disregarding the specifications which limit their import, they had exercised an unlimited power of providing for the general welfare?…[quoted in testimony before Congress]

Was Hamilton of a different mind? Apparently not:

The Federalist Papers are one of our soundest guides to what the Constitution actually means. And in No. 84, Alexander Hamilton indirectly confirmed Madison’s point.

Hamilton argued that a bill of rights, which many were clamoring for, would be not only “unnecessary,” but “dangerous.” Since the federal government was given only a few specific powers, there was no need to add prohibitions: it was implicitly prohibited by the listed powers. If a proposed law — a relief act, for instance — wasn’t covered by any of these powers, it was ipso facto unconstitutional.

Adding a bill of rights, said Hamilton, would only confuse matters. It would imply, in many people’s minds, that the federal government was entitled to do anything it wasn’t positively forbidden to do, whereas the principle of the Constitution was that the federal government is forbidden to do anything it isn’t positively authorized to do.

Hamilton too posed some rhetorical questions: “For why declare that things shall not be done which there is no power to do? Why, for instance, should it be said, that the liberty of the press shall not be restrained when no power is given by which restrictions may be imposed?” Such a provision “would furnish, to men disposed to usurp, a plausible pretence for claiming that power” — that is, a power to regulate the press, short of actually shutting it down.

We now suffer from the sort of confusion Hamilton foresaw. But what interests me about his argument, for today’s purpose, is that he implicitly agreed with Madison about the narrow meaning of “general welfare.”

After all, if the phrase covered every power the federal government might choose to claim under it, the “general welfare” might be invoked to justify government control of the press for the sake of national security in time of war. For that matter, press control might be justified under “common defense.” Come to think of it, the broad reading of “general welfare” would logically include “common defense,” and to speak of “the common defense and general welfare of the United States” would be superfluous, since defense is presumably essential to the general welfare.

So Madison, Hamilton, and — more important — the people they were trying to persuade agreed: the Constitution conferred only a few specific powers on the federal government, all others being denied to it (as the Tenth Amendment would make plain).

Now we are embarked on a great mission to undo what Congress did so wrongly almost 70 years ago. The first step is to privatize Social Security. The next step is to abolish it. The ultimate step is to abolish Medicare and Medicaid. But one step at a time…as my father always said.

Setting the Record Straight

The Last Amazon corrects Osama bin Laden Moore’s rewriting of history, with a vengeance. Here’s where she starts:

In Osama bin Laden’s latest video release he said something that piqued my interest. He stated that is was the behaviour of the American 6th Fleet in Lebanon in 1982 that inspired him to attack Americans. I could have sworn that originally Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda declared war against America because American infidel soldiers were being based in Saudi Arabia and polluting the sacred soil, but hey, never let it be said that I cannot go with the flow.

She then rips into bin Laden Moore’s fabrication, at length, leaving his story in tatters. Read the whole thing.

Speaking of the EU Constitution…

…as I was in this post, there’s still a chance that all of Europe won’t be herded down the socialist path by France and Germany. According to an AP story, “All it takes is one rejection to sink the constitution.”

I sometimes wish that our Constitution could have been derailed by only one State’s failure to ratify it. The Antifederalists were mostly right about the consequences of the Constitution. As “An Old Whig” put it in Antifederalist No. 46:

Where then is the restraint? How are Congress bound down to the powers expressly given? What is reserved, or can be reserved? Yet even this is not all. As if it were determined that no doubt should remain, by the sixth article of the Constitution it is declared that “this Constitution and the laws of the United States which shall be made in pursuance thereof, and all treaties made, or which shall be made, under the authority of the United States, shalt be the supreme law of the land, and the judges in every state shall be bound thereby, any thing in the Constitutions or laws of any State to the contrary notwithstanding.” The Congress are therefore vested with the supreme legislative power, without control. In giving such immense, such unlimited powers, was there no necessity of a Bill of Rights, to secure to the people their liberties?

Is it not evident that we are left wholly dependent on the wisdom and virtue of the men who shall from time to time be the members of Congress? And who shall be able to say seven years hence, the members of Congress will be wise and good men, or of the contrary character?

Despite the subsequent adoption of the Bill of Rights — and despite occasional resistance from the Supreme Court (in the midst of much acquiescence) — Congress (often in league with the Executive) has for most of its 215 years been engaged in an unconstitutional power grab. Campaign-finance “reform” is merely a recent and notably egregious bit of evidence that the Antifederalists were right.

Cronkite’s "Conspiracy Theory"

Drudge reports this:

…Somewhat smiling, Cronkite said he is “inclined to think that Karl Rove, the political manager at the White House, who is a very clever man, he probably set up bin Laden to this thing.”…

Think of all the lefties out there who will use the quotation without noting that Cronkite was “somewhat smiling” when he said it.

P.S. I’ve noticed that the righties are getting all exercised about Cronkite’s crack. Loosen up, fellas — election’s only two days away. No serious person is going to pay attention to Uncle Walter’s mutterings. Hell, most of CBS News’s remaining fans (all three of them) think he was mummified and glued to the anchor chair. (Oops, that’s Dan Rather, isn’t it?)

Debating the Debates

Ed Driscoll points to a piece by Fred Barnes about the debates:

…The traits we look for in a president are wisdom, steadfastness, foresight, integrity, inner strength, emotional intelligence, and the willingness to do what’s unpopular but right. If there’s been a presidential debate that gave us a glimpse of these in a candidate, I missed that one. Instead, I’ve watched debate after debate that provided only the shallowest of impressions about a candidate….

Now think about a few presidents who served before the advent of televised debates–George Washington, James Madison, Andrew Jackson, Ulysses Grant, William McKinley, Lyndon Johnson, Dwight Eisenhower. I doubt if any of them would have fared well in a debate. Washington was too aloof, Madison too short. Jackson had a hair-trigger temper. Grant was a great writer but not as good a talker. Up against William Jennings Bryan, McKinley would have been overpowered. Johnson talked too slowly and Ike had trouble putting together a sentence with a subject and verb in the right place. All of them would have lost debates and maybe the presidency. Yet most were presidents of great merit.

Another worthwhile test of the value of debates is to consider the 1964, 1968, and 1972 presidential campaigns, the ones with no debates. Were the issues clearly drawn in those campaigns? Yes. Were the differences between the candidates clear? For sure. Did we manage to get insights into the character of the candidates? I think so….

Driscoll adds this:

Given President Bush’s unspoken war against the leftwing legacy media (and vice-versa), I’m kind of surprised he didn’t choose to use this campaign to say “no mas” to the debates.

My own take:

If Bush loses, it will because he debated Kerry, period. I know that it’s unseemly for a sitting president to refuse to participate in the quadrennial test of cramming and makeup. But the debates do nothing but show how well a candidate can perform in the artificial setting of live TV. The debates have nothing to do with governance and everything to do with performance (in the showbiz sense).

Bush should have refused to participate in the debates, on the ground that he has more pressing things to do, such as prosecute a war. His refusal might have cost him a few points in the polls, but that’s nothing compared with the damage he has suffered by giving Kerry an opportunity to feign gravitas.

Someone Who Understands

Unlike a hermetically sealed “strategic planner” who can bring a perfect world into being by imagining it, Mike Rappaport of The Right Coast actually understands the world:

Many people…have argued that Bush has been running the Wars on Terror and in Iraq incompetently and support Kerry on that basis. But what about the War in Afghanistan? The Bush Administration has been tremendously successful there, defeating the Taliban, forcing Pakistan to become an ally, and instituting the beginnings of democracy. See here.

If Bush is so incompetent, how has he been able to pull off these feats? Of course, it is sometimes said that Afghanistan was easy, but that is not how it was initially perceived. After all, war in Afghanistan had defeated the Soviets.

The Bush critics are selective in their focus. Here is my explanation for the success in Afghanistan and the relative difficulty in Iraq….Terrorists from other countries have chosen to focus on Iraq, so the job [t]here is much harder. Moreover, the difficulty in fighting such terrorists cannot solely or easily be attributed to the incompetence of the Bush Administration. The Israelis, who are experienced at this and are hardly incompetent, also have a difficult time fighting terrorists (in their own country). If the Israelis have a hard time and cannot easily stop terror, the critics of the Bush Administration expect too much.

It is not that the Bush Administration has not made mistakes. Of course it has. But it is important to recognize that this is a new type of war for the US and mistakes were inevitable. It is unrealistic to expect an Administration to display the competence of Kerry’s (or Andrew Sullivan’s) hindsight.