Polls, Party Preferences, and Polarization

The Pew Research Center’s web site includes a page entitled The 2004 Political Landscape: Evenly Divided and Increasingly Polarized. The first graph on that page shows party identification in the U.S. between 1937 and 2003. The graph also (unintentionally) shows why polls are so unreliable:

1. The incumbent president’s popularity strongly affects what people tell pollsters about party affiliation. There has been a consistent swing toward the opposite party as the popularity of incumbent presidents has waned or plummeted. This phenomenon can be seen toward the end of every presidency from Truman’s through Clinton’s, and most notably toward the end of Nixon’s disgraced presidency.

2. The core of each party’s constituency has changed drastically during the past seven decades. Remember when New England was reliably Republican and the “Solid South” was a bastion of the Democrat Party? Remember when there was more than a handful of liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats in Congress? The realignment of party affiliations wasn’t sudden. It began in 1948, when many Southerners found it possible not to vote for a Democrat. It continued in 1952, when popular Ike ran as a Republican. It accelerated in 1960, when the Democrats nominated Catholic JFK, much to the consternation of many Southerners. It got another boost in 1968, when Democrats got on the wrong side of the culture war. And it continued well into the 1980s, thanks largely to Carter’s ineptness and the left’s continuing dominance within the Democrat Party. Polling results about party preferences were largely meaningless during the 40 years from 1948 to 1988 because personal as well as regional party alignments were in almost constant flux during that period.

Pollsters — and pundits — are nevertheless fond of drawing sweeping inferences from flawed statistics. An inference that has played prominently since the close presidential election of 2000 is that the nation has become “polarized.” That is, many States have become reliably “Red” (Republican) and “Blue” (Democrat), instead of vacillating from one election to the next. In this case, the pollsters and pundits are right, but they would have been just as right in the 1940s and 1950s, when Republicans reliably held New England and Democrats solidly held the South. So why is “polarization” now such a big issue?

It’s a big issue because the Democrat Party no longer enjoys the large (but illusory) plurality that it enjoyed from New Deal days until the 1980s. “Polarization” is bad only if it means that your favorite party is no longer the dominant party.

The underlying fear, of course, is that today’s “polarization” may become tomorrow’s Republican dominance. As another graph on the Pew page indicates, Democrats tend to be older than Republicans. That is, Democrats are dying at a faster rate than Republicans.

Justice Is Dead, Even in Texas

From FoxNews.com:

Texas woman who claimed God ordered her to bash in heads of her three children — two of whom died — acquitted of all charges.

Rating Books, Movies, and Presidents

I have found that I rate books, movies, and music as follows:


• I have (or would gladly) read, see, or hear it more than once. (***)

• Once was enough, but I enjoyed it most of the time. (**)

• I made it to the end. (*)

• I tried but gave up on it. (0)

One person’s *** book or movie won’t be another person’s *** book or movie. By the same token, I’ve given up on many a book and movie that critics and friends have raved about. Among my *** books are Edith Wharton’s Ethan Frome, John Fowles’s The Magus, and Stephen King’s The Stand. Some of my *** movies are “The Philadelphia Story,” “Gunga Din,” and “My Man Godfrey.” Books and movies that I’ve given the goose egg include James Joyce’s Ulysses and Finnegan’s Wake, anything I’ve tried by Martha Grimes and Elizabeth George, and such film “classics” as “Z” and “Last Year at Marienbad.”

Although I’ve read a lot of books and seen a lot of movies that rate ** and *, my preferences in music tend to be binary. Almost anything written between 1700 and 1900 gets *** (the tedious compositions of Wagner, Mahler, and Bruckner being the most notable exceptions). I give a big fat 0 to almost anything written after 1900 by a so-called serious composer: the likes of Berg, Stravinsky, Shostakovich, Poulenc, Britten, Hovannes, Glass, and their more recent offshoots. For music written after 1900, I turn to Gershwin, Lehar, Friml, Kern, bluegrass, jazz (written before 1940), and rock of the 1960s to early 1980s.

Now that I’ve lived through, and remember, 11 complete presidencies — from Truman’s through Clinton’s — here’s how I’d rate them on my book/movie/music scale:


Truman **

Eisenhower ***

Kennedy *

Johnson 0

Nixon 0

Ford *

Carter 0

Reagan ***

Bush I *

Clinton 0

You can try this at home.

Never Relent: A Tale of Libertarian Dissent

I’m a heretic from libertarian orthodoxy on two major issues: immigration (which I’d tighten considerably) and pre-emptive war (which I favor). I’m also willing to give law-enforcement agencies the benefit of the doubt when it comes to snooping in search of terrorist conspiracies.

I’m still a staunch libertarian on most other issues, but when it comes to terrorists, I say keep them out (or as many as we can), kill as many as possible before they get here, and if they get here, catch them before they kill us. I don’t want my murder to be avenged by justice or retribution, I want to fully enjoy my golden years in the sunshine. I want the same for my wife, my children, my grandchildren, and all my progeny.

When my wife and I turned on our TV set that morning of 9/11/01, the first plane had just struck the World Trade Center. A few minutes later we saw the second plane strike. In that instant a horrible accident became an obvious act of terror. Then, in the awful silence that had fallen over Arlington, Virginia, we could hear the “whump” as the third plane hit the Pentagon.

Our thoughts for the next several hours were with our daughter, whom we knew was at work in the adjacent World Financial Center when the planes struck. Was her office struck by debris? Did she flee her building only to be struck by or trapped in debris? Was she smothered in the huge cloud of dust? Because telephone communications were badly disrupted, we didn’t learn for several hours that she had made it home safely.

Thousands of grandparents, parents, husbands, wives, children, grandchildren, lovers, and good friends — the survivors of the 3,000 who died that day in Manhattan, the Pentagon, and western Pennsylvania — did not share our good fortune. Never forgive, never forget, never relent.

A Colloquy on War and Terrorism

Able. Is it right to go to war against a country that has not attacked us?

Baker. No.

Able. What about Nazi Germany?

Baker. Well, Nazi Germany was in league with Imperial Japan, which had attacked us.

Able. So it’s all right to go to war with our enemy’s friend?

Baker. Well, only if the enemy has already attacked us.

Able. Hadn’t we already been attacked by al Qaeda, not once but several times, before we went to war against Saddam Hussein?

Baker. But Saddam wasn’t a friend of al Qaeda.

Able. You don’t believe that Saddam condoned the giving of support to al Qaeda by members of his regime, even if he wasn’t directly involved?

Baker. Well suppose Saddam’s regime had nothing to do with al Qaeda, after all there are many who question the Saddam-al Qaeda link. That leaves Saddam as a potential enemy, but he didn’t pose an imminent threat to us.

Able. Did Hitler pose an imminent threat to us in December 1941?

Baker. No, but Saddam was no Hitler, that is, he lacked the wherewithal to attack us any time soon, if ever.

Able. It doesn’t matter to you that he was an oppressive dictator and a known enemy of the U.S., and that — at a minimum — his presence emboldened other regimes in the Middle East to support terrorism?

Baker. We shouldn’t have invaded Iraq until it became clear that Saddam posed a direct and imminent threat to the U.S.

Able. In other words, we shouldn’t spray a nest of hornets if only one of them has stung us? We should wait until more have stung us?

Baker. But our pre-emptive war caused much innocent blood to be shed.

Able. How much more innocent blood will be shed if we don’t go after terrorism at its roots?’

Baker. But what if our pre-emptive strategy inflames hatred of the U.S. and creates even more terrorists?

Able. What if our pre-emptive strategy also deters would-be terrorists by creating fear of, if not respect for, the U.S.? (Look at what’s happened in Libya, for instance.) What if our pre-emptive strategy makes it harder for would-be terrorists to act on their hatred? There is — and was — already an ample supply of America-haters in the Middle East (and elsewhere). Nothing we do, or don’t do, is likely to reduce their numbers significantly. They hate America not out of poverty or ignorance (though many of them are poor and ignorant), but because most humans have a need to hate something. The U.S., with all its power and wealth, is an easy target for hatred. Does hatred justify terror?

Baker. Of course not, but surely there must be a better way than pre-emptive war.

Able. Shall we all join hands at the United Nations and denounce terrorism? Well, that’s already been tried, and a lot of good it’s done. Tell me what you would do. Go on, tell me, I’m waiting…

Baker. We need to detect and prevent actual terrorist operations through improved intelligence.

Able. I agree. But I don’t see that as an alternative to pre-emptive action overseas. We need both better intelligence and pre-emptive action, especially because there are many things intelligence cannot do. It cannot keep out terrorists who are already in the country. It cannot keep out terrorists who can easily cross our mostly open borders with Canada and Mexico. It cannot keep out terrorists who come into the country on seemingly legitimate business and then vanish from sight. It cannot prevent any of these terrorists from making weapons of terror from materials that can be bought or stolen. We can reduce such risks by making it easier for law-enforcement agencies to detect terrorist plans and conspiracies, as we have through the Patriot Act.

Baker. I’m glad you mentioned the Patriot Act…

Able. Me, too. You’re aghast at some of the leeway it gives law-enforcement agencies, though we always run the risk that they will abuse their already considerable power. But you’re also aghast at the doctrine of pre-emption. I guess that your anti-terror strategy is to hunt down terrorists after they have struck.

Baker. That’s not fair.

Able. It’s a logical consequence of your position. You either fight terror or you let it happen to you.

9/11 and Pearl Harbor

It has been about two and a half years since September 11, 2001. Two and a half years after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor — that is, by mid-1944 — the U.S. and its allies had rallied decisively against the Axis: Allied forces had successfully landed in Normandy and U.S forces in the Pacific were leap-frogging toward the Japanese homeland.

But World War II was far from over in two and a half years. It took another year of bloody fighting in Europe — and more than a year in the Pacific — to defeat the Axis. Yet the Germans and Japanese waged conventional war: Their units were identifiable. They could be found, attacked, and destroyed, without ambiguity.

Why, then, would anyone expect that we should be near victory over al Qaeda and its allies after a mere two and a half years? The enemy is within our borders, and within the borders of other Western nations. The enemy is hard to identify and, therefore, hard to attack and destroy. Unlike World War II and previous wars, we cannot measure the march toward victory by the rate of advance toward an enemy’s capital.

We have done much to disrupt the enemy’s plans, communications, and financing through our successes in Afghanistan and Iraq — and through other successes that cannot be publicized without telling the enemy what we know and how we know it. Despite all the press about bloody acts of “resistance” in Iraq and bloody acts of terror elsewhere, we are winning.

Victory in the war on terror will not come in another year or two, but it will surely come if we persist — and only if we persist. Our persistence will be tested by more bloody acts, inside and outside our borders. Those acts will test our resolve to “provide for the common defence.”

Will we fight the enemy or try to appease him? I am not confident of the answer. The United States of 2004 lacks the moral fiber of the United States of 1941.

I’ll Never Understand the Insanity Defense

Headline at FoxNews.com:


Mom Describes Stoning Sons on Tape

Psychiatrist says woman delusional when she killed sons with rocks

It’s impossible to know a person’s “state of mind” at the time he or she committed a crime. It follows that “innocent by reason of insanity” is — pun intended — an insane verdict.

And so what if a person was “insane” at the time he or she committed a crime? A crime was committed and, therefore, someone must be “guilty” of it. If not the “insane” person, then who, Harvey the Rabbit?

Why Outsourcing Is Good: A Simple Lesson for Liberal Yuppies

You work in Manhattan, at the headquarters of a company whose product is sold throughout the U.S. and overseas. You live in Connecticut and commute to Manhattan by train. You drive to and from the train station in an SUV that was assembled in Tennessee.

Shazam! Outsourcing is outlawed. You can’t buy a new SUV unless it’s assembled in Connecticut and all its parts are made in Connecticut of raw materials that are native to Connecticut.

Wait, it gets worse. You can’t work for a Manhattan-based firm if you live in Connecticut. Only Manhattanites need apply. The good news is that you won’t need an SUV if you live in Manhattan. The bad news is that you can’t afford to live in Manhattan. The good news is that you wouldn’t want to live there anyway, because the only raw materials native to Manhattan are smog and smut.

A Few (Strange) Ideas About the Election

Suppose the presidential election were to end in a tie (269 electoral votes for Bush, the same for Kerry). The election would then go to the House of Representatives, where Bush would win the required majority of States. Would Kerry take the election to the Supreme Court, claiming that the House had “thwarted the will of the people”? Perhaps he could claim that the votes of the Southern States didn’t count because they had seceded from the Union.

An idea that seemed good two weeks ago is good no longer. Some thought that Bush should or would drop Cheney and put Condi Rice on the ticket. Now Condi is somewhat tarnished by her run-in with Dick (tells-two-tales) Clarke. So where should Bush turn for a “sexy” VP candidate? How about Jodie Foster, who’s rumored to be a Republican.

Will the election again come down to a “long count” in Florida? Why not? I’m confident that the voters of Florida can screw up any kind of ballot: paper, punch card, touch-screen, or whatever. Then the mind readers will again try to interpret “the will of the people.” Perhaps this time the Supreme Court will call a halt to the mind-reading for the right reason: Every voter has one opportunity to cast a ballot that reflects his will. That’s it. Try again next election.

By election day Bush will have slid so far to the left and Kerry so far to the right that they will differ only with respect to the war in Iraq. Bush will say it was necessary. Kerry will say that it was necessary but inadvisable without the support of the UN. Thus the election will be a referendum on the UN. That bodes well for Bush.

Presidential Election Patterns: Implications for 2004

Presidential elections seem to follow patterns. Let’s begin with one-term presidencies:

J Adams 1797-1801 (following Washington’s two terms)

JQ Adams 1825-29 (following Monroe’s two)

Van Buren 1837-41 (following Jackson’s two)

WH Harrison-Tyler 1841-45 (following Van Buren’s one)

Polk 1845-49 (following Harrison-Tyler’s one)

Taylor-Fillmore 1849-53 (following Polk’s one)

Pierce 1853-57 (following Taylor-Fillmore’s one)

Buchanan 1857-61 (following Pierce’s one)

Hayes 1877-81 (following Grant’s two)

B Harrison 1889-1893 (sandwiched between Cleveland’s two)

Taft 1909-13 (following TR’s almost-two)

Hoover 1929-33 (following Coolidge’s almost-two)

Carter 1977-81 (following Nixon-Ford’s two)

Bush I 1989-93 (following Reagan’s two)

Except for the string of one-term presidencies from 1837 to 1861 — when the country was truly deeply divided and about to go to war with itself — the other one-termers (but for B Harrison) followed two-termers. A two-term president, having been popular enough to win the second term, is a tough act to follow. (The exception here is Ford, who was only a fill-in for the reviled, second-term Nixon.)

There have been successive two-term presidencies, but they have come in two well-defined clusters. From 1801 to 1825, Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe each held office for two terms. Then there was a gap of almost 100 years before another — almost unbroken — string of two-term presidencies, which ran from 1913 to 1977: Wilson (1913-21) followed by Harding-Coolidge (1921-29), then Roosevelt-Truman (1933-53) followed by Eisenhower (1953-61), followed by Kennedy-Johnson (1961-69), followed by Nixon-Ford (1969-77).

If, since 1977, we have reverted to something like a “normal” succession cycle — a two-term presidency, followed by a one-term presidency, followed by a two-term presidency, etc. — GW Bush supporters will not be happy come November 3.

Alternatively, because the country is again deeply divided — if not on the verge of civil war — we may be facing a new succession of one-term presidencies. That, too, would be bad news for Bush-ites.

I Hate to Say It…

…but some families of 9/11 victims are sounding like typical liberal whiners. Why didn’t the government prevent the attack? Who’s to blame?

Well, the government that can’t prevent you from dying of old age is the same government that can’t protect you from every possible peril in the universe. When did government become our omniscient, omnipresent guardian angel?

But the whiners don’t get it. They can’t accept the hard fact that stuff happens. In this case, a brutally horrific act that was years in the planning by evil men who took advantage of the broad freedom of movement and action the U.S. grants to those within its borders, even non-citizens.

Who to blame? The answer is obvious, but the whiners can’t — or won’t — grasp it. The blame lies with al Qaeda, its allies, and its supporters.

Ten-Plus Commandments of Liberalism, er, Progressivism

I. Free speech is for everyone but those whose views I don’t like.

II. There should be no restraints on personal behavior, except for smoking. (Corollary: People should be forced to save energy, but you can’t take away my SUV.)

III. Death to tyrants, unless they tyrannize in the Middle East or Cuba.

IV. Terrorism is bad, defending against terrorism is worse. Someone might get hurt.

V. Corporations and profits are bad, but I love the things I can buy because corporations are motivated to make profits. (Corollary: Let’s stop “exporting” jobs, but let’s keep importing Guccis and Manolo Blahnicks.)

VI. Health care in the U.S. is terrible, but I can’t name another country where it’s better.

VII. People shouldn’t be forced to act against their own interests, but they should be forced to make bad investments, like participating in Social Security and Medicare.

VIII. The U.S. stinks, that’s why so many people freely choose to move here. (Corollary: And that’s why I live here even though I said I’d leave the country if Bush were elected.)

IX. Sexual harassment and lying under oath are bad, except when the lying harasser is a Democrat president. (Corollary: Jefferson was bad because he owned slaves and was therefore a hypocrite about freedom; Clinton wasn’t bad even though he was a hypocrite about seeing to the faithful execution of the laws.)

X. War is bad, although I have nothing against the Revolutionary War, Civil War, and World War II. (Corollary: Iraq is just like Vietnam, except that we won the war, deposed the tyrant, and are rebuilding the vanquished nation — having lost 99% fewer American lives in the process.)

XI. Libertarians and conservatives are mean-spirited because, unlike me, they don’t want to use the coercive power of the state to subsidize my favorite social programs. (General rule: Recourse to the coercive power of the state is good when it’s for “progressive” values, bad when it’s for conservative values.)

XII. It’s wrong to tell people how to live their lives, but urban sprawl is so ugly that we really ought to make people live closer to urban centers (where they can afford one one-fourth as much housing). (Corollary: See Commandment II.)

XIII. Christian conservatives want to impose their values on the rest of us. (Ha. Unlike fascists, communists, socialists, and “progressives.”)

XIV. Capital punishment is bad; abortion is good. (Conservative version: Capital punishment is good; abortion is bad.)

XV. Taxes are the price we pay for (my “progressive” version of) civilization.

Some Management Tips

Are you a CEO or senior manager in a corporate bureaucracy? Want to know how you stack up against your peers? Select your personal management traits from the following list, then tally your score and check it against the scale at the end of the list.

1. Flaunt the privileges of rank: Spend on frills and perks even as you’re down-sizing.

2. Flout the rules you expect others to obey.

3. Put off hard decisions as long as possible so that rumors can grow wildly on the grapevine.

4. Pepper your staff with meaningless projects and pointless questions — hire consultants to give you the “straight scoop.”

5. Hire outsiders for senior management positions and create make-work jobs for your cronies.

6. Keep your door open to whiners and let them second-guess your managers’ decisions.

7. Promise vision but deliver pap.

8. Talk teamwork but don’t let anyone in on your game plan — keep ’em all guessing.

9. Talk empowerment but micro-manage.

10. Keep your board in the dark, except when you turn on the rosy spotlights.

Score of 0: You lie to yourself all the time; see a psychiatrist.

Score of 1-3: You sleep a lot during the day; see a physician.

Score of 4-6: You’re a normal boss, which isn’t necessarily good news.

Score of 7-9: You could give Donald Trump a run for his money.

Score of 10: So you’re the model for Dilbert’s pointy-haired boss!

What Would We Do Without Experts?

Lately I’ve been seeing a lot of references to “some experts” in my local (left-leaning) daily newspaper. Today I saw a similar reference in the lede of an online New York Times article (“Where Does the Buck Stop? Not Here”):


Accepting responsibility is an essential part of everyday life, something every parent and child, every boss and worker, every friend and colleague wrestle with, or know they should. But for a president it is quite rare, and at least in the view of some historians and government experts, getting rarer, as a national culture of shifting blame permeates American politics.

The article, of course, goes on to berate President Bush for failing to accept responsibility for 9/11 in the same theatrically obsequious manner as did former “anti-terrorism czar” Dick Clarke. (Clinton is ripped, as well, but he’s not running for re-election, is he?) Two “experts” are cited by name: David (a man for all administrations) Gergen and Michael Beschloss (the groupies’ historian). I guess two experts equals “some experts.”

So it seems that the NYT and its ilk on the left have found a new, cheap, journalistic trick. Quote a few pseudo-experts who have an opinion on a subject — an opinion that conforms to the paper’s opinion, of course — and refer to them as “some experts” in the headline or lede of a slanted story. And don’t bother to cite anyone with an opposing opinion. They don’t report, they decide.

Ranking the Presidents

They’re at it again, this time at Opinion Journal. Here are the rankings, with my commentary:

GREAT

1 George Washington. First in war, first in peace, always first in the rankings.

2 Abraham Lincoln. Still the tallest of the lot. Someday a president may stand taller physically (pray it’s not Kerry), but none will ever stand taller morally.

3 Franklin D. Roosevelt. He had the good “luck” to inherit a depression and stumble into a popular war. If he had been president in a different era he would have been considered a philandering failure.

NEAR GREAT

4 Thomas Jefferson. His greatness cannot be negated by historical revisionism.

5 Theodore Roosevelt. A hyperactive nut-case with good press.

6 Andrew Jackson. Another nut-case, with bad hair.

7 Harry S Truman. The right man in the right place at the right time.

8 Ronald W. Reagan. He ended the cold war, licked inflation, set the stage for the boom of the 1990s, and made anti-government rhetoric respectable. But that’s not enough for some people.

9 Dwight D. Eisenhower. The most cunning of the lot. His decade looks better all the time.

10 James K. Polk. Who? What?

11 Woodrow Wilson. The first of the pointy-headed ineffectuals to hold the job. Maybe he’d have done better if he’d kept his first name (Thomas).

ABOVE AVERAGE

12 Grover Cleveland. Great name and one of the last small-government Democrats. Would we remember him at all if he went by his first name (Stephen)?

13 John Adams. Belongs with Truman in the greatest crotchety president category.

14 William McKinley. Too bad he was shot while TR was his vice president.

15 James Madison. Sold “short”?

16 James Monroe. Excellent doctrine. Too bad JFK didn’t adhere to it.

17 Lyndon B. Johnson. Terrible foreign policy, terrible domestic policy, other than that, who’s complaining?

18 John F. Kennedy. Spent most of his time in bed (sick or with mistresses), so how can he be ranked?

AVERAGE

19 William Howard Taft. Best of the super heavyweights.

20 John Quincy Adams. Better in Congress than in the presidency.

21 George H. W. Bush. Stopped short of deposing Saddam, raised taxes, lost to Clinton. A three-time loser. But he leads the pack in names.

22 Rutherford B. Hayes. Replaced Grant’s bourbon with lemonade. Boo.

23 Martin Van Buren. The original Who? What?

24 William J(efferson) Clinton. Belongs with Nixon. Doesn’t deserve his middle name.

25 Calvin Coolidge. Most under-rated by far. He knew exactly how to be president: Keep your hands off the economy and out of taxpayers’ pockets. Another one who dropped his first name (John).

26 Chester A. Arthur. Another Who? What?

BELOW AVERAGE

27 Benjamin Harrison. Ditto to Arthur.

28 Gerald R. Ford. And double ditto. Could have been worse, though, he was born Leslie King Jr.

29 Herbert C. Hoover. FDR without the oratory.

30 James Earl (just call me Jimmy) Carter. Ford would have been better, which isn’t saying much.

31 Zachary Taylor. Yet another Who? What? The 19th century was replete with them.

32 Ulysses S. Grant. Bourbon drinkers can’t be all bad.

33 Richard M. Nixon. He and Clinton belong in a separate sleaze category.

34 John Tyler. Fathered the most children, and not even Catholic.

35 Millard Fillmore. I don’t “Know-Nothing” about him.

FAILURE

36 Andrew Johnson. Had the bad luck to succeed Lincoln and be a drunk, to boot.

37 Franklin Pierce. Another drinking president — seems like a trend.

38 Warren Gamaliel Harding. Who really killed WGH? Maybe he should have gone by his middle name, like Cleveland, Wilson, and Coolidge.

39 James Buchanan. Lincoln’s stepping-stone to immortality. Ranked last because he failed to prevent an unpreventable war. LBJ, Nixon, Carter, and Clinton were worse.

Left-Wingers Dominate the Blogosphere

A significant sample of bloggers (411 to date) has taken the “Political Compass Test” and posted the results here. Despite complaints voiced there about the ambiguity of the test questions, the results are probably a good approximation of the political views of the test-takers (my result seemed right to me).

The chart near the top of the page tells the tale. Most bloggers who posted their results are in the lower left quadrant: strong on personal liberty and strong on government intervention in the economy. The authors of the test characterize that quadrant as “libertarian left” — the ultimate oxymoron. But down the page they more accurately label adherence to the economic left as “Communism (Collectivism)”.

Thus, it seems that the blogosphere is dominated by the self-indulgent and irresponsible (social “libertarian” collectivists). Just like the real world.

"Your government failed you"

So says Richard Clarke, former “anti-terrorism czar” at the White House. Truer words were never spoken. Government fails all the time. What’s amazing is that most people continue to look to government for “solutions” to “problems” that are really their own to solve (e.g., saving enough for retirement).

Government officials and employees aren’t — “West Wing” to the contrary — smarter, more competent, or more honest than other people. In my considerable experience they’re about as dumb, incompetent, and dishonest as the populace at large. Their dumbness and incompetence are leveraged into greater dumbness and incompetence by the gross size and rigidity of government bureaucracy, which has the reflexes of a day-old infant. Their dishonesty (at all levels, not just at the top) makes them even more dangerous to our well-being because government officials are rarely held accountable for their misdeeds.

Government-lovers will say: “Well, government does this or that, so how can you say government is incompentent.” I don’t say that government is always incompetent — though it often is — only that it is generally less competent than the private sector.

There are a few tasks that only government should undertake, national defense being one. But don’t expect even those few tasks to be done with consistent competence. The Union won the Civil War — despite poor generalship and many lost battles — because it had superior technology. That — not great competence — is why we will eventually win the war on terror.

Fact-Finding Commissions

When’s the last time a fact-finding commission actually found a useful fact? There’s always plenty of fault-finding, and sometimes facts emerge from all the “he said-she said-they said-we said” testimony. But what about facts that might actually help to prevent a future disaster?

I can recall only Richard Feynman’s discovery of O-ring failure as the cause of the Challenger disaster in 1986. But finding that fact didn’t prevent the loss of Columbia 17 years later.

Finding useful facts becomes even more problematic in the exponentially more complex world of human behavior. Our understanding, such as it was, of the causes of Pearl Harbor didn’t prevent 9/11. Our understanding of 9/11 will not prevent future terrorist attacks within the U.S.

But the headline writers and pundits are having a field day, so the game must go on.

Dick Clarke, Former "Anti-terrorism Czar"

Bush was okay in 2002, now he’s not okay. Talk about playing the flip side. I wonder where this Dick Clarke’s payola is coming from.

Diversity

Segregation thrives, but it is voluntary segregation based on income and culture. Nothing wrong with that.

Diversity — a code word for forced integration — is a liberal pipe dream. How many well-off, well-educated liberals (including members of Congress and academe) choose to live in “diverse” neighborhoods?

Favorite Posts: Affirmative Action and Race