UPDATED 02/12/14 (related reading added)
I am loath to write again about AGW, so convinced am I that it is a “scientific” myth. But the myth has a large, vociferous, politically motivated, and almost-unshakeable following. So here goes…
Watt’s Up With That? notes
a Technical University of Denmark press release [about] what looks to be a significant confirmation of [Henrik] Svensmark’s theory of temperature modulation on Earth by cosmic ray interactions. The process is that when there are more cosmic rays, they help create more microscopic cloud nuclei, which in turn form more clouds, which reflect more solar radiation back into space, making Earth cooler than what it normally might be. Conversely, [fewer] cosmic rays mean less cloud cover and a warmer planet as indicated here. The sun’s magnetic field is said to deflect cosmic rays when its solar magnetic dynamo is more active, and right around the last solar max, we were at an 8000 year high, suggesting more deflected cosmic rays, and warmer temperatures. Now the sun has gone into a record slump, and there are predictions of cooler temperatures ahead….
The new paper is:
Response of cloud condensation nuclei (>50 nm) to changes in ion-nucleation” H. Svensmark, Martin B. Enghoff, Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Physics Letters A 377 (2013) 2343–2347….
FULL PAPER LINK PROVIDED IN THE PRESS RERLEASE: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/51188502/PLA22068.pdf (open access PDF)
LOCAL COPY: (for those having trouble with link above): Svensmark_PLA22068 (PDF)
What about the seemingly high rate of increase in temperatures in recent decades? As I say here,
It should be quite evident by now that the warming trend of the past thirty-odd years merely coincides with the rise in human activity (as measured by population) but is not explained by the “greenhouse” effect…. There are alternative and compelling alternative explanations for the warming trend, including the influence of solar activity summarized above….
What else explains the apparent (but exaggerated) warming trend of the past thirty-odd years (a “trend” that ended more than 15 years ago)? Poorly sited weather stations and urban heating are the two main culprits.
P.S. So much for the prematurely predicted disappearance of the Arctic ice cap: here and here.
Recommended book: Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder, The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change, Totem Books, 2003
Anthony Watts, “The EPA Is Challenged in the Supreme Court over Greenhouse Gas Regulations,” Watts Up With That?, December 17, 2013
Chet Richards, “A Few Easy Tests to Debunk Global Warming Hysteria,” American Thinker, January 1, 2014
Ronald Bailey, “Ugly Climate Models,” reason.com, January 2014
Christopher Monckton, “IPCC Silently Slashes Its Global Warming Predictions in the Final AR5 Draft,” Watts Up With That?, January 1, 2014
Anthony Watts, “Could This Study on Honesty and Government Service Explain the EPA Climaterr Fraud and ‘Climategate’?,” Watts Up With That, January 6, 2014
Don J. Easterbrook, “Setting the Record Straight on the ‘Cause of the Pause’ in Global Warming’,” Watts Up With That?, January 21, 2014
Vincent Gray, “The Scientific Method and Climate Science,” Watts Up With That?, January 21, 2014
Climatology (a term that I use to distinguish phony climate science from the real thing)
Global Warming: Realities and Benefits
Another Blow to Climatology?
Another Blow to Chicken-Little Science
Global Warming and Life
Remember the “Little Ice Age”?
Science’s Anti-Scientific Bent
More Bad News for Global-Warming Zealots
“Warmism”: The Myth of Anthropogenic Global Warming
More Evidence against Anthropogenic Global Warming
Yet More Evidence against Anthropogenic Global Warming
Modeling Is Not Science
Anthropogenic Global Warming Is Dead, Just Not Buried Yet
Analysis for Government Decision-Making: Demi-Science, Hemi-Demi-Science, and Sophistry