Epistemology: The branch of philosophy that examines the nature of knowledge, its presuppositions and foundations, and its extent and validity.
Experience (observation) and logic yield hypotheses about discrete phenomena and the workings of natural and constructed entities. Hypotheses are provisional because of the possibility of error and the fact that universal generalization is impossible.
Hypotheses about how things work are nevertheless useful — nay, indispensable — to life and its improvement. But nothing is certain because hypotheses are necessarily limited in their application. Why? Because they are abstractions that cannot account for human error and the variability of physical phenomena.
Experience shows, for example, that a cake recipe (which is a hypothesis about how to bake a cake) cannot guarantee the production of an edible cake of certain dimensions. In addition to wide variations in the ability of cooks (especially amateurs), there are wide variations in the quality and freshness of ingredients, the adequacy of tools (e.g., sifters and whisks), and the precision with which ovens can maintain specified temperatures.
Similar considerations — but far more serious ones — apply to “recipes” for constructing buildings, highways, bridges, aircraft, spacecraft, etc. The “recipe” for estimating the effect of human activity (CO2 emissions) on climate is deeply flawed by human bias, measurement error, and failure to adequately account for relevant “ingredients” (some of which remain unknown). “The science” is never settled; for example, an apparent error in Einstein’s general theory of relativity is just one of the many problems that still daunt scientists.
Error (failure) is an epistemological fact of life. It may be possible to predict the fact of error (e.g., a novice bowler will not bowl a 200 game) but the magnitude of error can be known only after the fact. That is why critical systems (e.g., bridges and aircraft) are usually built to withstand extreme conditions. But they still sometimes fail.
Related post: Words Fail Us
Politics and Prosperity 