Still More about the “Permanent Democrat Majority”

The left likes to claim that the GOP is doomed to be the minority party, in perpetuity; for example:

On April 9, 2009, Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz published a paper arguing that Obama’s victory “was made possible by long-term changes in the composition of the American electorate, especially the growing voting power of African-Americans, Hispanics, and other nonwhites. As a result of these demographic changes, the Democratic Party enjoys a large advantage over the Republican Party in the size of its electoral base — an advantage that is almost certain to continue growing for the foreseeable future.”

The problem is that such wishful thinking does not square with election results. As I say in “More about the ‘Permanent Democrat Majority’,” there is, if anything, a trend toward the GOP, which began in the 1950s. That statement is followed and supported by several graphs which depict the outcomes of House and Senate elections from 1916 through 2010. You can view the graphs by clicking on the link in the first sentence of the paragraph. (If you cannot follow the preceding instruction, you are probably a Democrat.)

Here is another indicator of the fallacy of the “permanent Democrat majority” thesis:

The Gallup results for 1988-2010 are derived from the first graph in Gallup’s “Democrats’ 2008 Advantage in Party ID Largest Since ’83” and the first graph in Gallup’s “Democratic Party ID Drops in 2010, Tying 22-Year Low.” The Rasmussen results for 2004-2012 are derived from Rasmussen’s “Summary of Party Affiliation” (averages of quarterly statistics for 2004-2011 and averages of January-February statistics for 2012). The congruence of Gallup and Rasmussen estimates indicates the accuracy of Rasmussen’s estimates for 2011-2012.

The trend line (dashed, purple) fits the combined Gallup-Rasmussen estimates of party affiliation. Note that the trend is away from the Democrat Party and toward the Republican Party. Enough said, for now.

More about the “Permanent Democrat Majority”

The following graphs underscore the point of the preceding post: Wishful thinking on the part of reality-based “progressives” to the contrary, there is no long-term trend toward a “permanent Democratic majority.” There is, if anything, a trend toward the GOP, which began in the 1950s.

What Happened to the Permanent Democrat Majority?

The election returns on November 2 tell a bigger story than massive disaffection with big government. They also point to a rising Republican majority. Consider, for example, the trend in the GOP’s percentage of House seats since the post-Depression lows of 1964 and 1974-76:

The 1964 low was an aberration, caused by LBJ’s landslide win over Barry Goldwater — a candidate whose then-“extreme” views went mainstream only 16 years later, with the election of Ronald Reagan. The backlash from Watergate led to the routs of 1974-76. And my trained eye tells me that 2008 was another aberration — a pause in a swing toward the GOP that began in the 1950s. So much for the “permanent Democratic majority” of which reality-based “progressives” love to boast.

Will the GOP’s fortunes rise indefinitely? Of course not — only a reality-based “progressive” would make that kind of claim. But the GOP will do well if it truly becomes — and remains — the party of limited government. It is the promise of government-light that propelled the GOP to a majority in 1994 and kept it there most of the time since.

That is the message of November 2. I urge Republican members of Congress to heed it.