Obama, Obamacare, and the Polls

Obama, once again, is in trouble with the left (e.g., this piece by Frank Rich of The New York Times). Why is he in trouble this time? Because he lacks the superhuman powers it would require of him to personally stanch the flow of oil in the Gulf of Mexico. The best he can do is throw tantrums (after much prompting from the left). But you can be sure that when the leak is plugged Obama will find a way to take credit for a feat of engineering that owed nothing to his tantrums.

Some of Obama’s fickle, leftist flock will then return to the fold, giving him a bounce in the polls, like the bounces he enjoyed following his attack on the Supreme Court in January’s State of the Union Address and the signing in March of that obaminable piece of legislation known as Obamacare:

Net approval rating: percentage of likely voters strongly approving of BO, minus percentage of likely voters strongly disapproving of BO. Derived from Rasmussen Reports’ Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. I use Rasmussen’s polling results because Rasmussen has a good track record with respect to presidential-election polling.

Obama’s last venture into positive territory occurred way back on June 29, 2009. His ratings have been (mostly) downhill ever since. It seems that his baseline approval rating is around -10 — that’s about as high as it gets when his fickle fans give him  a bounce in the polls. (The modal value for 492 polling days is -10; the modal range is -7 to -15.)

Obamacare has followed a similar course:

Net disapproval before enactment of Obmacare: percentage of poll respondents strongly disapproving of Obmacare, minus percentage of poll respondents strongly approving it (source). Net disapproval after enactment: percentage of poll respondents strongly approving of repeal, minus percentage of poll respondents strongly opposing it (source).

Despite the left’s euphoria when Obama signed his obamanation into law, Obamacare remains broadly unpopular.

In polls there is hope:

Source: results of a Rasmussen poll in which likely voters are asked whether they intend to vote for their district’s Republican or Democrat candidate.

Afterthought: You can rest assured that around Labor Day the Democrats will launch some kind of sleaze attack on the GOP. Having observed Democrats in action for six decades, I have decided that their motto should be: “When all else fails, fight dirty.” Given Tricky Dick’s track record, I hereby award him posthumous membership in the Democrat Party.