UPDATED AND REVISED 11:00 PM (CT)
Rasmussen’s net unpopularity rating of Obama was -11 as of this morning, which is about as good as it gets these days. If that number were to hold on election morning, it would point to a GOP majority of 232-203 in the House.* That would represent a net gain of 53 seats for the GOP.**
HOWEVER, Rasmussen has just released the result of his generic congressional ballot for 10/31/10, which gives GOP House candidates a 12-percentage-point edge over their Democrat rivals. Allowing for some backsliding (10 percent of respondents remain noncommittal), I forecast a GOP edge of 7.4 percentage points. That translates into a 237-198 majority for the GOP — a net gain of 58 seats.
Over in the Senate, the Intrade odds on individual races indicate a 50-50 split, with a few races hanging in the balance. That would be a gain of 9 seats for the GOP.
** Republicans currently hold 178 seats. In addition, a seat that had been held by a Republican is vacant. I therefore use 179 as a baseline for computing GOP gains.