The Trump Tape

You know the one I mean, and you know what Trump says on it. So I won’t link to it or quote it. What I will do is ask (and try to answer) the crucial question: What happens now?

Specifically, is Trump a goner? Well, there’s evidence that he was already a goner. So what happens now is that a lot of people who were planning to vote for Trump, or who might have voted for him, will switch to Clinton, Johnson, Stein, or “other” — or they simply won’t bother to vote. As a result, there’ll be a lot fewer down-ballot votes for Republicans in other races. Perhaps not enough to give Democrats control of the House, but perhaps enough to give Democrats control of the Senate.

And therein lies the really bad news. If the Dems can muster 50 senators, they will control the Senate because the VP will be a Democrat. And even if the election ends with, say, 52 Republicans in the Senate, it won’t be hard for the Democrats to entice two RINOs to move across the aisle.

You know what will happen to the Supreme Court with Hillary in the White House and her party in control of the Senate. That’s the really bad news.

Would it matter if Trump were to withdraw from the race? As I understand the States’ laws about putting names on ballots, Trump’s name would remain at the top of the GOP ticket. But the party could heavily advertise the idea that the electors from each State nominally won by Trump would instead vote for Pence. (The electors couldn’t be forced to do so, but as party loyalists, I expect that most of them would do so.)

Would that stratagem prevent a lot of voters from switching their votes away from Trump or sitting it out? I doubt it. It’s just too damn sophisticated and uncertain And a lot of voters simply won’t want to associate themselves in any way with Trump. It’s psychological thing. And it will weigh heavily, even in the secrecy of the voting booth.

Bottom line: Trump is toast. Hillary wins (unless there’s a bigger counter-scandal in the wings). Democrats have a good shot at taking control of the Senate. The Supreme Court may then continue to violate the Constitution and march Americans more rapidly down the road to serfdom.

2 comments

  1. Do you really think that “everyone” already knew just how sleazy he is? Some people actually didn’t know. Some people only had an inkling. Some people had more than an inkling but Trump’s comments are even sleazier than they thought him to be. Your penchant for undue generalization strikes again.

    All told, the repulsion factor will be large and enough to swing the election to Clinton. There are actually people — probably a lot of them — who will decide not to vote for Trump because of the repulsion factor, even though they could vote for him (because they hate Clinton and her politics) and no one would know.

    At this point, I believe that Clinton will lose only if it turns out that she’s a member of ISIS or something equally far-fetched.

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  2. “His supporters” covers a broad range of people who might vote for him. Some don’t care what kind of person he is; others (like me) might have voted for him as the only electable alternative to Hillary; others might have voted for him in the mistaken belief that he isn’t really as sleazy as he seems; etc. So there are a lot of “supporters” who will abandon him. He needs a lot more than the hard-core types who don’t care what kind of person he is. At the margin, he’s got to lose votes among the non-hard-core supporters. And it’s at the margin where most elections are won or lost. In this case, lost in all likelihood.

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