Election 2016 – Breaking

See the latest edition of “Election 2016” for more recent polling data and trend analyses. The news keeps getting better (for now, at least).

UPDATED 10/25/16 – 4:30 PM CT

Just after I spotted an interesting twist in the statistics underlying my post “Election 2016,” I noted a spate of related items; for example:

Scott Adams, “The Bully Party,” Scott Adams’ Blog, October 25, 2016

Arnold Cusmarlu, “Trump ‘87% Certain’ to Win in November,” American Thinker, October 25, 2016

Jonathan Easley, “War Over Polls Intensifies” (URL tag: are-the-polls-skewed-against-trump), The Hill, October 25, 2016

Steven Hayward, “Michael Moore Voting for Trump?Power Line, October 25, 2016

Jeffrey Lord, “Hillary: Queen of Corruption,” The American Spectator, October 25, 2016

Greg Richards, “Rigging the Election: James O’Keefe’s Third Video,” American Thinker, October 25, 2016

Andrew Grant White, “November 8: Trump +5,” American Thinker, October 25, 2016

It all adds up to this: There’s a good possibility that between now and election day — when most votes are cast despite early voting — growing realization of the corrupt, thuggish, big-spending, authoritarian, and anti-American character of a Clinton regime will turn the tide and lead to a victory by Donald Trump.

As I’ve said many times, the only thing worse than a Trump victory would be a Clinton victory.

Now for the twist that I spotted. There’s a glimmer of hope in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) “poll of polls,” which I adjust so that the various polling results are dated properly. Since October 9, the date of the second Trump-Clinton debate, there’s been a noticeable trend away from Clinton; thus:

rcp-poll-since-oct-9

The trend line points to a slight edge for Trump by election day, November 8. It’s too soon to take this forecast to the bank, but I’ll update it frequently — and keep my fingers crossed.

UPDATE

Here’s what’s happening with some other indicators that I’m tracking. (You can read about them at “Election 2016.”)

election-indicators-since-2nd-debate

The Reuters poll has been moving toward Trump, while the USC/LA Times has been moving toward Clinton, producing a slight trend toward Trump in the average of the two polls. The RCP 4-way poll has been moving toward Trump since October 14, while the IBD/TIPP poll has begun to move toward Clinton. All in all, it looks like a tightening of the poll results as election day approaches, with a pro-Trump undercurrent, as shown in the first graph.

2 comments

  1. Scott Adams just gets better and better and the unexpected comments from Michael Moore repeat almost verbatim, complete with expletives, what friends have said about sending a message to the Establishment.

    Like

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