See the latest edition of “Election 2016” for more recent polling data and trend analyses. The news keeps getting better (for now, at least).
UPDATED 10/25/16 – 4:30 PM CT
Just after I spotted an interesting twist in the statistics underlying my post “Election 2016,” I noted a spate of related items; for example:
Scott Adams, “The Bully Party,” Scott Adams’ Blog, October 25, 2016
Arnold Cusmarlu, “Trump ‘87% Certain’ to Win in November,” American Thinker, October 25, 2016
Jonathan Easley, “War Over Polls Intensifies” (URL tag: are-the-polls-skewed-against-trump), The Hill, October 25, 2016
Steven Hayward, “Michael Moore Voting for Trump?” Power Line, October 25, 2016
Jeffrey Lord, “Hillary: Queen of Corruption,” The American Spectator, October 25, 2016
Greg Richards, “Rigging the Election: James O’Keefe’s Third Video,” American Thinker, October 25, 2016
Andrew Grant White, “November 8: Trump +5,” American Thinker, October 25, 2016
It all adds up to this: There’s a good possibility that between now and election day — when most votes are cast despite early voting — growing realization of the corrupt, thuggish, big-spending, authoritarian, and anti-American character of a Clinton regime will turn the tide and lead to a victory by Donald Trump.
As I’ve said many times, the only thing worse than a Trump victory would be a Clinton victory.
Now for the twist that I spotted. There’s a glimmer of hope in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) “poll of polls,” which I adjust so that the various polling results are dated properly. Since October 9, the date of the second Trump-Clinton debate, there’s been a noticeable trend away from Clinton; thus:
The trend line points to a slight edge for Trump by election day, November 8. It’s too soon to take this forecast to the bank, but I’ll update it frequently — and keep my fingers crossed.
Here’s what’s happening with some other indicators that I’m tracking. (You can read about them at “Election 2016.”)
The Reuters poll has been moving toward Trump, while the USC/LA Times has been moving toward Clinton, producing a slight trend toward Trump in the average of the two polls. The RCP 4-way poll has been moving toward Trump since October 14, while the IBD/TIPP poll has begun to move toward Clinton. All in all, it looks like a tightening of the poll results as election day approaches, with a pro-Trump undercurrent, as shown in the first graph.