Climate Scare Tactics: The Mythical Ever-Rising 30-Year Average

Our local weather Nazi, of whom I have written before, jumped on his high horse yesterday and lectured viewers about the 401 (?) consecutive months of above-average temperatures. He didn’t come out and say it — this time — but his thoughts and prayers are running in the direction of a climatic version of gun confiscation. Just take away those fossil fuels, etc., and Earth will return to its “correct” temperature. In his case, because anything above 75 in Austin is too warm for him, attaining the “correct” temperature would require a return to something like a real ice age.

In any event, the statistic that has the weather Nazi — and other climate hysterics — all a-twitter goes like this. The global temperature for every month since February 1985 has exceeded the rolling, 30-year average for that month. This statistic must be derived from surface thermometer readings, inasmuch as satellite readings didn’t begin until the late 1970s. We know all about those surface thermometer readings: spotty coverage, poor siting (often in locations surrounded by concrete and traffic), missing data, and — worst of all — frequent downward adjustments of historical numbers to make recent decades look hotter than they were. There’s no mention of the “pause” between the El Niños of the late 1990s and mid 2010s, of course.

Here’s something closer to the truth, based on satellite-recorded temperatures in the lower troposphere, from the Global Temperature Report by the Earth System Science Center of the University of Alabama-Huntsville:

Here are the yearly averages:

Three comments:

  • The anomalies are small.
  • There are many negative values before the onset of the major El Niño that began late in 2014 and lasted until mid-2016. (A negative value means that the reading for a month was below the 30-year average for that month.)
  • The effects of that El Niño are wearing off.

Note to local weather Nazi: Give it a rest.


Related posts:
AGW: The Death Knell
Not-So-Random Thoughts (XIV) (second item)
AGW in Austin?
Understanding Probability: Pascal’s Wager and Catastrophic Global Warming
The Precautionary Principle and Pascal’s Wager
AGW in Austin? (II)
Hurricane Hysteria
Much Ado about the Unknown and Unknowable
Hot Is Better Than Cold: A Small Case Study