The Green New Deal Is a Plan for Economic Devastation

Here’s the essence of the “plan”:

The annual cost of the Green New Deal (GND) is about $5 trillion a year over the first ten years.

At the end of the ten years, government’s share of GDP would rise from about 40 percent to about 60 percent. This assumes, unrealistically, that the prospect and realization of the GND wouldn’t cause a drastic reduction in the size of the private sector.

Even making that assumption, the real rate of economic growth would decline from a weak 2 percent to a devastating minus 5 percent*.

In fact, within a generation what’s left of GDP would consist almost entirely of government spending. The socialist dream would have become reality, complete with long queues (physical and virtual) and rationing of shoddy products and services doled out by the state.

USSR, here we come.


* My rough estimate of the GND’s effect of on the rate of growth is based on the equation presented here.

Related reading:

Erich Wallach’s interview with Deirdre McCloskey, Distinguished Professor Emerita of Economics and of History, University of Illinois-Chicago, February 10, 2019

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Dan Bosch, Ben Gitis, Dan Goldbeck, and Philip Rossetti, “The Green New Deal: Scope, Scale, and Implications“, American Action Forum, February 25, 2019