Election 2020: The Dark Side Is on the March

I discuss the Dark Side — the consequences of Democrat control of the White House and Congress — in this post.

Regarding the outcome of the presidential contest, I am following three two indicators this year: White House Watch at Rasmussen Reports, the summary of two-way polls (i.e,, Trump vs. Biden) at RealClearPolitics, and the betting market at RealClearPolitics. [See this post for an explanation of the changes.]

In the graph below, only the RealClearPolitics (RCP) betting market reflects the perceived outcome of yesterday’s “debate” between Trump and Biden. And Biden seems to have come out ahead in that encounter. But the odds against Trump were slipping before the debate, which is consistent with the trend in the Rasmussen poll (which doesn’t reflect the debate). The two-way RCP poll is (on average) several days out of date, but Biden has an edge there, too. [Ignore the blue line, which represents the RCP two-way poll.]

In sum, the tide is running against Trump, and I wouldn’t bet on him at this stage. It will take a big October surprise (e.g., indictment of high-level ex-FBI officials in Russiagate) to turn things around. As for the Senate, a tie looks possible at this point. But with Harris as vice president, the Democrats would effectively control the Senate even if it’s split 50-50.

The bottom line: Lovers of liberty had better prepare themselves for the real-world equivalent of Nineteen-Eighty Four.

2 thoughts on “Election 2020: The Dark Side Is on the March

  1. I don’t exactly “like” the message, but I can’t disagree with it. See Tucker Carlson’s similar analysis: https://youtu.be/13Tm-hAK69A. Trump’s strengths are also his weaknesses. That said, you occasionally get a rare combo of principle and tough realism with people like Dan Crenshaw. Unfortunately, he’s not running for president. Trump is many ways a liability. Thinking conservatives (I mean those really conservative and not wimps or opportunists) typically cringe and qualify their support when talking about Trump. In some ways it wouldn’t be bad for him to be out of the political scene. That said, if he loses I doubt real Republicans will have a shot at the presidency for a long time (if ever). The left has clearly pushed things to the point where they will use political violence and possibly a coup to take over. If they do win they will dismantle the rule of law and any meaningful democracy, in which case we may have to consider a 1776 option..


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