Abortion and Crime

In several posts at my old blog, I examined the causes of crime and ways to combat it. Among other things, I debunked the proposition that more abortion means less crime. (See this post and follow the links therein.) Abortion, if it does anything, leads to more crime by women because it “frees” them from child-rearing:


Derived from Statistical Abstracts of the United States: Table HS-24. Federal and State Prisoners by Jurisdiction and Sex: 1925 to 2001; and Table 338. Prisoners Under Federal or State Jurisdiction by Sex.

It’s women’s lib at work!

How’s “He” Doing?

“He” is Barack Obama (BO), who presides over the left half of the nation and dictates to the right half. In an early post about BO’s popularity — or lack thereof — I observed that his “approval rating may have dropped for the wrong reasons; that is, voters expect him to “do something” about jobs, health care, etc.”

And, sure enough, when BO used his first state of the union address to reiterate his allegiance to the New Deal, his unpopularity dwindled a bit. And when he and his co-conspirators — Reid and Pelosi — rammed their health-care bill through Congress, his unpopularity again dwindled.

The good news is that BO remains generally unpopular:

Net approval rating: percentage of likely voters strongly approving of BO, minus percentage of likely voters strongly disapproving of BO. Derived from Rasmussen Reports’ Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. I use Rasmussen’s polling results because Rasmussen has a good track record with respect to presidential-election polling.

In polls there is hope.

A Nation of Sheep

The mail participation rate for Census 2010 has reached 72 percent, matching the Census 2000 rate. By the time the census-takers are done with their canvassing and re-canvassing in July, the vast majority of American households will succumb to the Census Bureau’s unconstitutional prying by divulging information that is none of the government’s business.

Bah! Or, I should say, b-a-a-a!

Clinton the Conspirator

Bill Clinton is back on the job. Thanks to a large assist from CNN, Clinton is once again painting those who oppose oppressive government as potentially violent extremists in the mold of Timothy McVeigh. Byron York has this take on Clinton’s latest foray into fear-mongering:

With the 15th anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing Monday, former President Bill Clinton is playing a starring role in the liberal effort to draw what the New York Times calls “parallels between the antigovernment tone that preceded that devastating attack and the political tumult of today.” The short version of the narrative is: Today’s Tea Partiers are tomorrow’s right-wing bombers. . . .

At a White House meeting four days [after the bombing], [Dick] Morris presented Clinton with a comeback strategy based on his polling.  Morris prepared an extensive agenda for the session, a copy of which he would include in the paperback version of his 1999 memoir, Behind the Oval Office.  This is how the April 27 agenda began:

AFTERMATH OF OKLAHOMA CITY BOMBING

A. Temporary gain: boost in ratings — here today, gone tomorrow

B. More permanent gain: Improvements in character/personality attributes — remedies weakness, incompetence, ineffectiveness found in recent poll

C. Permanent possible gain: sets up Extremist Issue vs. Republicans . . .

It was a political strategy crafted while rescue and recovery efforts were still underway in Oklahoma City.  And it worked better than Clinton or Morris could have predicted.  In the months after the bombing, Clinton regained the upper hand over Republicans, eventually winning battles over issues far removed from the attack.  The next year, 1996, he went on to re-election.  None of that might have happened had Clinton, along with Morris, not found a way to wring as much political advantage as possible out of the deaths in Oklahoma City.  And that is the story you’re not hearing in all the anniversary discussions.

And here is Debra J. Saunders:

Clinton wrote that while criticism is “part of the lifeblood of democracy … we should remember that there is a big difference between criticizing a policy or a politician and demonizing the government that guarantees our freedom and public servants who enforce our laws.”

What I want to know is: Other than the twisted McVeigh and company, who is not clear on this difference? Does Clinton think his all his critics are stupid, or is he playing stupid?

But wait, there’s more. Clinton continued, “We must all assume responsibility for our words and actions before they enter a vast echo chamber and reach those both serious and delirious, connected and unhinged.”

Think about that for a minute: If anyone were to cast blame for the Fort Hood shootings that left 13 dead, or any other attacks within American military bases, on the antiwar movement, then that assertion would be followed by howls of outrage, and deservedly so. It would be absurd to suggest that opposition to the war be misconstrued as promoting violence against U.S. troops.

Yet somehow arguing against President Obama’s health care plan can be construed as practically an incitement to violence.

It all boils down to this: Clinton spearheads a left-wing conspiracy to discredit Americans who legitimately protest the unconstitutional and fiscally destructive acts of the federal government. One of the conspiracy’s tactics is to charge that Tea-Partiers and other critics of Barack Obama’s policies are “racist” — as if Obama’s policies weren’t, in and of themselves, deserving of opprobrium. (See, for example, the decidedly non-racist “Contract from America,” which reflects the true concerns of the Tea-Partiers and millions of silent Americans who are with them in spirit.)

Clinton’s moral standing is on a par with Teddy Kennedy’s. That is to say, Clinton has no moral standing. (A small, non-sexual sample of Clinton’s morality can be found in the use of CS gas against the 25 children who were present in the Branch Davidian compound at Waco.)  To call Clinton a snake would be an insult to snakes.

The Mega-Depression

In the preceding post, I offered my definition of recession and asked whether the current one has ended. (The answer: not yet, but I may know soon — or sooner than the official score-keepers at the National Bureau of Economic Research.) It since occurred that to focus on the current recession — or any recession — is to ignore America’s mega-depression, which is now more than a century old.

As I explain here, the mega-depression began in the early 1900s, when the economy began to sag under the weight of “progressivism” (e.g., trust-busting, regulation, the income tax, the Fed). Then came the New Deal, whose interventions provoked and prolonged the Great Depression (see, for example, this, and this). From the New Deal and the Great Society arose the massive anti-market/initiative-draining/dependency-promoting schemes known as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The extension and expansion of those and other intrusive government programs has continued unto the present day (e.g., Obamacare), with the result that our lives and livelihoods are hemmed in by mountains of regulatory restrictions.

The mega-depression is an example of  “that which is not seen,” a coinage of Frédéric Bastiat. In “That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Not Seen,” Bastiat writes:

Have you ever chanced to hear it said “There is no better investment than taxes. Only see what a number of families it maintains, and consider how it reacts on industry; it is an inexhaustible stream, it is life itself.” . . .

The advantages which officials advocate are those which are seen. The benefit which accrues to the providers is still that which is seen. This blinds all eyes.

But the disadvantages which the tax-payers have to get rid of are those which are not seen. And the injury which results from it to the providers, is still that which is not seen, although this ought to be self-evident.

When an official spends for his own profit an extra hundred sous, it implies that a tax-payer spends for his profit a hundred sous less. But the expense of the official is seen, because the act is performed, while that of the tax-payer is not seen, because, alas! he is prevented from performing it.

In the case of aggregate economic activity, what we see is what has been left to us by government. What we do not see is the extent to which the money taken from us by government and the restrictions placed upon us by government have deprived the economy of entrepreneurship, innovation, technology, and productive capacity. The cumulative effect of those deprivations — that which we do not see — dwarfs the Great Depression in depth and extent. The cumulative effect is our mega-depression:

Is the Recession Over?

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has not yet declared an end to the recession. But no matter . . . according to the NBER, a recession ends when the economy has stopped contracting and begun expanding. In other words, the NBER could (and has) declared the end of a recession when the rate of aggregate economic activity (as measured by constant-dollar GDP) remains below its level at the beginning of the recession. That anomaly leads me to the following definition:

  • two or more consecutive quarters in which real GDP (annualized) is below real GDP (annualized) for an earlier quarter, during which
  • the annual (year-over-year) change in real GDP is negative, in at least one quarter.

That is to say, a recession lasts as long as there is a real and sustained dip in economic activity.

Here is my take on postwar recessions, which are marked by the vertical bars (click image to enlarge it):

Contrary to the NBER, there were no recessions in 1969-1970 or 2001. The Reagan-Volcker boom — which began in 1983 and was interrupted by the very mild recession of 1990-1991 — lasted until 2008.

To answer the title question: I don’t know if the recession is over, but I will know as soon as the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2010. Or, you can wait until the NBER makes its call in 2011.

The Shape of the Supreme Court

UPDATED 08/09/10

With the replacement of Justice John Paul Stevens by Elena Kagan, the Court’s presidential provenance looks like this*:

Reagan — Antonin Scalia (1986), Anthony Kennedy (1988)

Bush I — Clarence Thomas (1991)

Clinton — Ruth Bader Ginsburg (1993), Stephen Breyer (1994)

Bush II — John Roberts (2005), Samuel Alito (2006)

Obama — Sonia Sotomayor (2009), Elena Kagan (2010)

In terms of age, the Court looks like this:

Ginsburg, 77

Scalia, 74

Kennedy, 73

Breyer, 71

Thomas, 61

Alito, 60

Sotomayor, 55

Roberts, 55

Kagan, 50

Barring an unexpected death or retirement, Ginsburg will be the next to go. Like Souter and Stevens, she is likely to retire on Obama’s watch, in an effort to maintan the Court’s present ideological balance. Obama’s picks have not, and likely will not, alter the Court’s ideological balance, but they will create a core of youngish “liberal” justices, who will serve for decades.

The best that we devoted adherents of the Constitution can hope for is a one-term Obama-cy and a Republican successor who will do a better job of selecting justices than Ford (Stevens), Reagan (O’Connor and Kennedy), and G.H.W. Bush (Souter). In fact, the election of a Republican is critical because the person who sits in the White House from 2013 to 2017 or 2021 may well have to replace three justices — most likely Scalia, Kennedy, and Breyer.

Imagine the future of the Court if those three justices — an eccentric originalist, a wavering centrist, and a semi-hard leftist — could be replaced with sober, collegial originalists. They would outnumber Kagan, Sotomayor, and the next Ginsburg by 6-3, setting the stage for an era of constitutional resurgence.

__________

* For those of you who are interested in the Court’s genealogy, the following lines of succession have led to the present Court (* = elevated from associate justice to chief justice):

Chief Justice
John Jay (1789-1795)
John Rutledge* (1795-1795)
Oliver Ellsworth (1796-1800)
John Marshall (1801-1835)
Roger Brooke Taney (1836-1864)
Salmon Portland Chase (1864-1873)
Morrison Remick Waite (1874-1888)
Melville Weston Fuller (1888-1910)
Edward Douglass White* (1910-1921)
William Howard Taft (1921-1930)
Charles Evans Hughes* (1930-1941)
Harlan Fiske Stone* (1941-1946)
Fred Moore Vinson (1946-1953)
Earl Warren (1954-1969)
Warren Earl Burger (1969-1986)
William Hubbs Rehnquist* (1986-2005)
John Glover Roberts Jr. (2005-)

Associate-1
James Wilson (1789-1798)
Bushrod Washington (1799-1829)
Henry Baldwin (1830-1844)
Robert Cooper Grier (1846-1870)
William Strong (1870-1880)
William Burnham Woods (1881-1887)
Lucius Quintus C. Lamar (1888-1893)
Howell Edmunds Jackson (1893-1895)
Rufus Wheeler Peckham (1895-1899)
Horace Harmon Lurton (1910-1914)
James Clark McReynolds (1914-1941)
James Francis Byrnes (1941-1942)
Wiley Blount Rutledge (1943-1949)
Sherman Minton (1949-1956)
William Joseph Brennan Jr. (1957-1990)
David Hackett Souter (1990-2009)
Sonia Maria Sotomayor (2009-)

Associate-2
William Cushing (1790-1810)
Joseph Story (1812-1845)
Levi Woodbury (1846-1851)
Benjamin Robbins Curtis (1851-1857)
Nathan Clifford (1858-1881)
Horace Gray (1882-1902)
Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. (1902-1932)
Benjamin Nathan Cardozo (1932-1938)
Felix Frankfurter (1939-1962)
Arthur Joseph Goldberg (1962-1965)
Abraham Fortas (1965-1969)
Harry Andrew Blackmun (1970-1994)
Stephen Gerald Breyer (1994-)

Associate-3
John Blair (1790-1795)
Samuel Chase (1796-1811)
Gabriel Duvall (1811-1835)
Philip Pendleton Barbour (1836-1841)
Peter Vivian Daniel (1842-1860)
Samuel Freeman Miller (1862-1890)
Henry Billings Brown (1891-1906)
William Henry Moody (1906-1910)
Willis Van Devanter (1911-1937)
Hugo Lafayette Black (1937-1971)
Lewis Franklin Powell Jr. (1972-1987)
Anthony McLeod Kennedy (1988-)

Associate-4
John Rutledge* (1790-1791)
Thomas Johnson (1792-1793)
William Patterson (1793-1806)
Brockholst Livingston (1807-1823)
Smith Thompson (1824-1843)
Samuel Nelson (1845-1872)
Ward Hunt (1873-1882)
Samuel Blatchford (1882-1893)
Edward Douglass White* (1894-1910)
Joseph Rucker Lamar (1911-1916)
Louis Dembitz Brandeis (1916-1939)
William Orville Douglas (1939-1975)
John Paul Stevens (1975-2010)
Elena Kagan (2010-)

Associate-5
James Iredell (1790-1799)
Alfred Moore (1800-1804)
William Johnson (1804-1834
James Moore Wayne (1835-1867)

Associate-6
Thomas Todd (1807-1826)
Robert Trimble (1826-1828)
John McLane (1830-1861)
Noah Hayes Swayne (1862-1881)
Stanely Matthews (1881-1889)
David Josiah Brewer (1890-1910)
Charles Evans Hughes* (1910-1916)
John Hessin Clarke (1916-1922)
George Sutherland (1922-1938)
Stanley Forman Reed (1938-1957)
Charles Evans Whitaker (1952-1962)
Byron Raymond White (1962-1993)
Ruth Bader Ginsburg (1993-)

Associate-7
John Carlton (1837-1865)

Associate-8
John McKinley (1838-1852)
John Archibald Campbell (1853-1861)
David Davis (1862-1877)
John Marshall Harlan (1877-1911)
Mahlon Pitney (1912-1922)
Edward Terry Sanford (1923-1930)
Owen Josephus Robert (1930-1945)
Harold Hitz Burton (1945-1958)
Potter Stewart (1959-1981)
Sandra Day O’Connor (1981-2006)
Samuel Anthony Alito Jr. (2006-)

Associate-9
Stephen Johnson Field (1863-1897)
Joseph McKenna (1898-1925)
Harlan Fiske Stone* (1925-1941)
Robert Houghwout Jackson (1941-1954)
John Marshall Harlan II (1955-1971)
William Hubbs Rehnquist* (1972-1986)
Antonin Gregory Scalia (1986-)

Associate-10
Joseph P. Bradley (1870-1892)
George Shiras Jr. (1892-1903)
William Rufus Day (1903-1922)
Pierce Butler (1923-1939)
William Francis Murphy (1940-1949)
Thomas Campbell Clark (1949-1967)
Thurgood Marshall (1967-1991)
Clarence Thomas (1991-)

Sources: Appendix Two, “Nominations and Successions of the Justices,” The Oxford Guide to United States Supreme Court Decisions, edited by Kermit L. Hall, Oxford University Press, 1999; “Members of the Supreme Court of the United States,” from the website of the U.S. Supreme Court.

A Declaration of Independence, Updated

If you haven’t read “A Declaration of Independence,” or haven’t read it since I revised it, I recommend a first or second look.

The State of the Union, Obama-style

My fellow Democrats — and anyone else who may be watching — I make this special appearance tonight for the purpose of gloating, er, celebrating our recent victory, which was won against the will of the people, and which will make them poorer and less healthy. But never mind that, the important thing is to have played the game of politics and won — the consequences be damned.

Having succeeded in attaining a major goal of this administration, I will now turn to our other major goals, which are to:

  • tax and regulate Americans until their entrepreneurial spirit and work ethic sink to European levels
  • reject our traditional allies, while bowing to the forces that would destroy us — which will make us even more European.

I close this brief address by paraphrasing the sainted John F. Kennedy: Ask not what your country can do for you, but what your country can do to you if you are a heterosexual male with a good job, above-average income, and traditional views about family, morality, limited government, and fiscal responsibility. The worst is yet to come. Bwah-ha-ha-ha-ha.

A Declaration of Independence

See “The Constitution: Myths and Realities“.

Quick Takes

1. Bryan Caplan, who is prone to wrong-headed generalizations, is at it again. He defends survey research (e.g., “how happy are you?”) by pointing out that all economic statistics are based on surveys — as if to equate subjective measures of happiness with objective (if not precise) measures of employment, unemployment, prices, etc., etc.

2. Caplan does himself one better when he argues for a “Consumer Satisfaction Standard.” He writes:

Most economists still cling to the Demonstrated Preference Standard: If A buys X, then X makes A better off by definition.

Actually, “most” economists (if I may speak for them) would say that at the time A buys X, he believes that buying X will make him better off. If A later suffers buyer’s remorse, that is simply the result of having acquired additional information that A can then apply to future decisions. Only a supremely naive economist (Caplan?) would believe that humans are perfectly prescient about the consequences of their decisions.

Unabashed, Caplan continues by offering the Consumer Satisfaction Standard (CSS):

[I]f A buys X, and would do so if he had the chance to make the decision over again, then X makes A better off.

The validity of the CSS rests on the assumption that the buyer somehow knows that buying something else (Y) instead of X would have made him happier. But the buyer can’t know that unless he actually buys Y and finds that he doesn’t suffer buyer’s remorse. This kind of imaginary second-guessing could go on forever.

3. I must give Caplan credit for challenging the addiction-as-disease school of psychology. He writes:

While I think that addictive behavior should be legal, it’s still irresponsible and emotionally abusive towards the people who care about you.   The addiction-as-disease story shifts the blame from where it belongs – the self-destructive addict – to family, friends, co-workers, employers, tax-payers, and other victims.  Calling bad behavior a “disease” may be merciful, but it’s unjust.

Bravo!

4. Megan McArdle, as usual, makes sense. Some of her predictions about Obamacare:

[A]t least one of the major funding sources, and possibly all of them, will be substantively repealed:  the Medicare cuts (except Medicare Advantage), the excise tax, and so forth.

This program will not reduce the rate of growth in medical costs by anything like 1.5% a year.

A fiscal crisis of some sort is quite likely by 2030, though not just because of this program.  But this program will make it worse, either by increasing the deficit directly, or by using up the low-hanging fruit that should have funded Medicare reform.

By 2030, there’s an 80% chance that the government will have imposed substantial price controls on pharma and other medical technology–and this will noticeably slow the rate of innovation.

5. Finally — and aptly — is a review of Thomas Sowell’s Intellectuals and Society. The reviewer, J.R. Nyquist, refers to the subjects of Sowell’s book as “Civilization’s Wrecking Crew.”  An excerpt:

. . . Sowell offers a detailed examination of those who carry today’s ideological equivalent of the Black Death. He defines the term “intellectual” as referring to those teachers and writers who chiefly deal in ideas, and are paid — by the media or the state — for batting ideas around. By focusing on intellectuals who are paid for intellectualizing, he is able to make a series of observations about their ideological tendencies, their lack of accountability, and their tendency to live outside the “real world.” . . . It is one of those sociological tragedies that intellectuals act as if “their special kind of knowledge of generalities can and should substitute for, and override, the mundane specific knowledge of others.” The intellectuals, as a class, tend to reject the first-hand knowledge of non-intellectuals as “prejudice” or “stereotypes.” Abstract formulas, adopted by the intelligentsia as dogma, are advanced as some kind of superior wisdom and used to undergird insane government policies that fly in the face of common sense. How else, indeed, has our Republic arrived at its present state?

Once established, the intellectual class continues to feed politicians and bureaucrats with ideas that point toward one solution: big government, interventionism, wealth redistribution, and other egalitarian absurdities. The country is pushed, inch by inch, toward an unnamed catastrophe. Who will name it? Who will stop the pushing? The intellectuals are feeding at the public trough, and they are entrenched. It seems that the rest of society is helpless to stop them.

To decry their push for “judicial activism” avails us nothing. If you stop them in the Supreme Court they will infect popular opinion and a new Congress will be elected. If they don’t elect Congress, they will elect a president. If they cannot act politically, they will take over the universities and bring out a generation of politically correct drones. Here we are not dealing with a particular set of abuses that can be fixed with appeals to democracy, Christianity, or legal reform. Here we are dealing with thousands of writers and professors who have, through some mysterious process, arisen from the lower depths, from the inner hell of a confused though fashionable relativism. The welfare state is their brainchild, and economic calamity is also theirs.

Civilization’s Wrecking Crew has been working overtime lately.

Obamacare

Rather than repeat myself, I refer you to these posts:

Rationing and Health Care
The Perils of Nannyism: The Case of Obamacare
More about the Perils of Obamacare
Health Care “Reform”: The Short of It

The Census of 2010: Bring It On

I’m waiting eagerly for the census form to arrive in the mail. Its arrival will give me an opportunity to comply with the “real” Constitution by committing an act of civil disobedience. Specifically, I will refuse to answer the questions that have nothing to do with the constitutional purpose of the census.

Yes, the Constitution mandates the census, for the purpose of apportioning membership in the House of Representatives among the States. And it says in the Constitution that “the actual Enumeration . . . shall be made . . . in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.” But the operative word is “enumeration.” It follows that Congress’s power to direct the “manner” of the enumeration is restricted to such matters as when and at what cost the enumeration shall be made.

In fact,  nine of the questions asked on this year’s ten-question census form are  extraneous to the constitutional purpose of determining the number of persons living in each State. It is telling that the “box” in which the constitutional purpose of the census is stated contains only question 1: “How many people were living or staying in this house, apartment, or mobile home on April 1, 2010?” The layout of the form indicates clearly that the other nine questions are unnecessary, not to mention intrusive; for example: Do you own or rent your home? Is it mortgaged? What’s your phone number, age, and date of birth? Are you Hispanic? What’s your race (since the abolition of slavery, relevant only to the exclusion of “Indians not taxed” from the enumeration)? Do you sometimes live or stay somewhere else, and why?

Worse than the basic census form is the American Community Survey (ACS), which is sent to a random sample of addresses. The survey redoubles the constitutional irrelevance and unwarranted intrusiveness of the basic census form by asking about such things as the characteristics of your dwelling (e.g., number of rooms, number of bathrooms, age of building, types of appliances), number of automobiles you own, cost and type of utilities you use, the estimated value of your home, your annual real-estate taxes, the amount of mortgage payment, your education, your type of employment and work status, etc., etc., etc.

According to the Census Bureau,

The 2010 Census will help communities receive more than $400 billion in federal funds each year for things like:

  • Hospitals
  • Job training centers
  • Schools
  • Senior centers
  • Bridges, tunnels and other-public works projects
  • Emergency services

The data collected by the census also help determine the number of seats your state has in the U.S. House of Representatives.

It is noteworthy that the constitutional purpose of the census is stated as an afterthought, whereas top billing is given to several unconstitutional purposes — none of which derives from the powers granted Congress in Article I, Section 8, of the Constitution. The fact that courts have upheld the constitutionality of extraneous, intrusive questions is no proof of their constitutionality. The real Constitution is what the Constitution says, not what some court says.

Nor is there a scintilla of a penumbra of a justification in the Constitution for the use of the census to satisfy the desire of social “scientists” to collect data from which they can derive unconstitutional policy prescriptions..Yet, the Census Bureau boldly proclaims the value of the census as a source of data for such endeavors by quoting one such “scientist”:

“For many sociologists and other scholars like me, the census data that is compiled every 10 years is flat-out the most reliable, comprehensive, and best source of data on the American population.”

— C.N. Le, Professor at University of Massachusetts, Amherst

In addition to the essential unconstitutionality of the census, as it is conducted, there is the potential for the misuse of the census by an administration that is determined to micromanage our lives, as the present administration is wont to do. (A primary case in point: “health care reform.”)

As if that weren’t enough, Hans A. von Spakovsky notes that a court in Delaware has ruled that “there is a separate violation for each question you don’t answer. So, on this year’s ten-question Census form, you could be fined as much $1,000” — even though it is evident that the law (U.S. Code, Title 13, Section 221) contemplates a maximum fine of $100:

(a) Whoever, being over eighteen years of age refuses or willfully neglects, when requested by the Secretary, or by any other authorized officer or employee of the Department of Commerce or bureau or agency thereof acting under the instructions of the Secretary or authorized officer, to answer, to the best of his knowledge, any of the questions on any schedule submitted to him in connection with any census or survey provided for by subchapters I, II, IV, and V of chapter 5 of this title, applying to himself or to the family to which he belongs or is related, or to the farm or farms of which he or his family is the occupant, shall be fined not more than $100.

The operative phrase is “any of the questions,” meaning any or all of them. Otherwise, the phrase would read “a question.” But arrogant, statist judges — like arrogant, statist executives and legislators — have no respect for the Constitution or laws that threaten to curb their power-lust.

Nevertheless, as von Spakovsky observes,

If there was a mass refusal by millions of Americans to answer parts of the form — like the race question — the U.S. Justice Department would not have the resources to prosecute everyone who violated the law. But you could be prosecuted and fined . . . .

What’s a Constitution-abiding citizen to do? Aside from giving false answers, which is neither principled nor wise (the potential penalty is five times greater than the penalty for not answering), I see three options:

1. Don’t return the census form(s) and avoid the census-taker when he comes a-calling. If the census-taker happens to catch you at home, you can put him off by recording his ID and telling him to return at some future time, after you have had a chance to call the Regional Census Center to confirm his identity. (If the census-taker gives you a phone number to call, explain to him that it would be imprudent of you to rely on him to give you a valid number.) It might just happen that you forget to be home at the agreed time, or that you don’t hear the doorbell.

2. Answer question 1 and its equivalent on the ACS (if you receive it), and return the form(s). Respond to follow-up visits by the census taker as suggested in 1.

3. Answer question 1 and its equivalent on the ACS (if you receive it), and return the form(s) with an note explaining the constitutional basis for your refusal to answer the other questions. Undaunted, the census-taker will come a-calling, and you (equally undaunted) can deal with him as suggested above. Don’t argue; just avoid.

In the census of 2000, I received the long census form (the predecessor of the ACS), and chose to exercise option 3. The census-taker gave up, and I never heard from a prosecutor. I can’t guarantee the same outcome (for you or me) this time around. But I intend, once again, to resist the unconstitutional intrusion of Big Brother’s minions into my life. I urge you to join me in sending this message to Washington:

Get out of my home and out of my life!

UPDATE (05/10/10):

See this, this, and this for more about Census 2010.

The “Predator War” and Self-Defense

There is a body of opinion which holds that the use of new war-fighting technology is illegal and tantamount to murder. Those who hold that opinion have particular reference to the Predator drone, which the U.S. has used to some effect in the Middle East. The position of the nay-sayers permeates a New Yorker article by Jane Mayer, entitled “The Predator War.” By the standards of Mayer and the anti-predator critics upon whom she leans heavily, David (of “David and Goliath”) and the English longbowmen at Agincourt were war criminals, just because they used superior technology to defeat their enemies. This pseudo-legal nonsense is merely a pretext for anti-American Americans, and others, to find fault with the United States.

The correct view of this matter is taken by Kenneth Anderson here, here, here, and here. In the fourth-linked item, Anderson outlines the legal position that the U.S. government should take (but has not):

  • Targeted killings of terrorists, including by Predators and even when  the targets are American citizens, are a lawful practice;
  • Use of force is justified against terrorists anywhere they set up safe havens, including in states that cannot or will not prevent them;
  • These operations may be covert—and they are as justifiable when the CIA is tasked to carry them out secretly as when the military does so in open armed conflict.
  • All of the above fall within the traditional American legal view of “self-defense” in international law, and “vital national security interests” in U.S. domestic law.

Moreover,

The U.S. government should . . . defend what its officers in fact believe to be the case—that targeted killing from drone platforms is not merely a question of hard-edged military necessity, but is also a humanitarian step forward in technology. The president believes that and so does the vice president, and they are correct. These technologies are lessening, not increasing, civilian damage, are being applied in ways (because it is killing that is, indeed, targeted) that lessen collateral damage from what it would otherwise be in traditional war. The U.S. government should react with outrage to the charge, implied or express, of American cowardice or some abstract increased propensity to violence on account of drone strikes, and assert its humanitarian moral ground.

For that matter, hostile journalists ought to be pressed to explain why drone attacks are significantly different from missiles fired from aircraft or offshore naval vessels​—save for the vastly greater ability to monitor the circumstances of firing through sensor technologies. Senior officials believe that drone warfare allows the United States to take far greater measure and care with collateral damage than it can using either conventional war or attack teams on the ground. The U.S. government should say so, rather than simply falling back on narrow arguments of military necessity, operational convenience, and force protection, while ceding the moral high ground to the international soft-law community.

The Near-Victory of Communism

It is said, often, that communism failed, and that its failure was marked by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Communism is in fact alive and as well as it ever was in the Soviet Union. Where? In the so-called Western democracies. In evidence, I quote from the Manifesto of the Communist Party (English edition of 1888):

[T]he first step in the revolution by the working class, is to raise the proletariat to the position of ruling as to win the battle of democracy.

The proletariat will use its political supremacy to wrest, by degrees, all capital from the bourgeoisie, to centralise all instruments of production in the hands of the State, i.e., of the proletariat organised as the ruling class; and to increase the total of productive forces as rapidly as possible.

Of course, in the beginning, this cannot be effected except by means of despotic inroads on the rights of property, and on the conditions of bourgeois production; by means of measures, therefore, which appear economically insufficient and untenable, but which, in the course of the movement, outstrip themselves, necessitate further inroads upon the old social order, and are unavoidable as a means of entirely revolutionising the mode of production.

These measures will of course be different in different countries.

Nevertheless in the most advanced countries, the following will be pretty generally applicable.

1. Abolition of property in land and application of all rents of land to public purposes.

2. A heavy progressive or graduated income tax.

3. Abolition of all right of inheritance.

4. Confiscation of the property of all emigrants and rebels.

5. Centralisation of credit in the hands of the State, by means of a national bank with State capital and an exclusive monopoly.

6. Centralisation of the means of communication and transport in the hands of the State.

7. Extension of factories and instruments of production owned by the State; the bringing into cultivation of waste-lands, and the improvement of the soil generally in accordance with a common plan.

8. Equal liability of all to labour. Establishment of industrial armies, especially for agriculture.

9. Combination of agriculture with manufacturing industries; gradual abolition of the distinction between town and country, by a more equable distribution of the population over the country.

10. Free education for all children in public schools. Abolition of children’s factory labour in its present form. Combination of education with industrial production, &c., &c.

So much of the agenda of Communism has been adopted by the “Western democracies” — through executive fiat, legislation, judicial decree, taxation, regulation, and nationalization — that I wonder why we bothered to wage and win the Cold War.

World Series Contestants: Usually Not the Best Teams

Since the advent of three-tiered postseason play in 1995, a league’s best team has seldom appeared in the World Series. Here’s the tally (National League teams listed first; * indicates winner of World Series):

1995 —
Atlanta Braves (division winner; .625 W-L, best record in NL)*
Cleveland Indians (division winner; .694 W-L, best record in AL)

1996 —
Atlanta Braves (division winner; .593, best in NL)
New York Yankees (division winner; .568, second-best in AL)*

1997 —
Florida Marlins (wild-card team; .568, second-best in NL)*
Cleveland Indians (division winner; .534, fourth-best in AL)

1998–
San Diego Padres (division winner; .605 third-best in NL)
New York Yankees (division winner, .704, best in AL)*

1999–
Atlanta Braves (division winner; .636, best in NL)
New York Yankees (division winner; .605, best in AL)*

2000–
New York Mets (wild-card team; .580, fourth-best in NL)
New York Yankees (division winner; .540, fifth-best in AL)*

2001–
Arizona Diamondbacks (division winner; .568, fourth-best in NL)*
New York Yankees (division winner; .594, third-best in AL)

2002–
San Francisco Giants (wild-card team; .590, fourth-best in NL)
Anaheim Angels (wild-card team; .611, third-best in AL)*

2003–
Florida Marlines (wild-card team; .562, third-best in NL)*
New York Yankees (division winner; .623, best in AL)

2004–
St. Louis Cardinals (division winner; .648, best in NL)
Boston Red Sox (wild-card team; .605, second-best in AL)*

2005–
Houston Astros (wild-card team; .549, third-best in NL)
Chicago White Sox (division winner; .611, best in AL)*

2006–
St. Louis Cardinals (division winner; .516, fifth-best in NL)*
Detroit Tigers (wild-card team; .586, third-best in AL)

2007–
Colorado Rockies (wild-card team; .552, second-best in NL)
Boston Red Sox (division winner; .593, tied for best in AL)*

2008–
Philadelphia Phillies (division winner; .568, second-best in NL)*
Tampa Bay Rays (division winner; .599, second-best in AL)

2009–
Philadelphia Phillies (division winner; .574, second-best in NL)
New York Yankees (division winner; .636, best in AL)*

There you have it. The last year in which the World Series featured each league’s best team was 1999. The only other time was in 1995.

Of the 15 Series from 1995 through 2009, 9 were won by the inferior team, as measured by W-L record. Division winners opposed each other in only 6 of the 15 Series.

Wild-card teams appeared in 8 of the 15 Series. With an all wild-card Series in 2002, wild-card teams have occupied almost a third of the 30 Series slots — 9 of 30.

As I have said, the winner of the World Series can claim nothing more than having been the better team over a span of four to seven games.

Columnist, Heal Thyself

David Brooks’s recent column, “The Protocol Society,” is a typical Brooksian muddle, in which he attributes evolutionary changes in economic behavior to the “discoveries” of contemporary economists.

Despite Brooks, there is nothing new under the sun of economic analysis. The practitioners of today who draw on sociology and psychology are simply returning to the roots of economics — the description of human behavior — which can be found in Adam Smith and his successors, well into the 20th century. This “old school” of literary economics didn’t give way to the “new school” of mathematical economics until after WWII, when Paul Samuelson led the profession down the dead-end street of convoluted, abstract theorizing.

The difference between the old-old school and the new-old school is that the moderns rely less on introspection and casual observation and more on data collection, “laboratory” experiments, statistical analysis, and the research findings of sociologists and psychologists. That this is not an unalloyed blessing can be seen in the “accomplishments” of a leading member of the new-old school, one Richard Thaler, whom Brooks omits to mention. Thaler’s specialty, which has been dubbed “behavioral economics,” focuses on the psychology of decision-making and how it leads individuals to make what Thaler believes are sub-optimal and even unwise choices. From there, Thaler and his collaborator, Cass Sunstein, have ventured into normative policy recommendations, which they dub “libertarian” or “soft” paternalism. Needless to say, actual libertarians find much to criticize in Thaler’s normative prescriptions, which carve out a role for government in “nudging” people in directions that “wise men” like Thaler and Sunstein would like to seem them nudged.  For much more about the dangers of “libertarian” paternalism, see these two posts and follow the links therein.

In any event, Brooks writes as if there were a real difference between economic activity in the 19th century and economic activity in the 21st century. As if, for example, there wasn’t a lot of brainpower and organizational skill involved in the “second industrial revolution” of the last third of the 19th century. As if, to take another example, the “protocols” of the modern food court didn’t have their counterparts in the market squares of yore. As if, to take a final example, the manufacture of steel, autos, and other durable goods doesn’t (and didn’t) involve massive capital investments (many of which were made possible by patented processes and machinery), so that the average cost of making each unit declines markedly as the rate of output rises. It is as if the 21st century simply arrived, bright and shining, with no connection to the past.

On the whole, Brooks is onto something, which is that economists are getting back in touch with the realities of human behavior. However, he is guilty of a gross attribution error. He writes as if there were something new in economic behavior because economists are now better able to describe it. The same attribution error is found among teenagers (of every era), who believe that sex didn’t exist until they discovered it.

Trade

Imagine two individuals, A and B, each of whom makes something different. Let’s say that A makes bread and B makes butter. If A wants butter for his bread, he buys some butter from B; if B wants bread to go with his butter, he buys some bread from A. This kind of exchange for mutual benefit, stripped of monetary measures, is the essence of economic activity.

What is special about trade if it happens to take place across international borders? Nothing. If I’m B (in Boston), and I have a choice between bread produced by A (in Alberta) and bread produced by C (in Chicago), I’ll choose A’s bread if I consider it a better value than C’s (e.g., same quality, lower price or higher quality, same price). Do I owe C a living? No. If C can’t compete with A in bread-making, he ought to try his hand at something else, but he shouldn’t use superior force (i.e., government) to force me to buy his product.

If B spends more on A’s bread than A spends on B’s butter, B is running a deficit. Isn’t that awful? No, it isn’t. B, to finance his deficit, can draw on his savings, borrow from A, or sell stock in his butter-making business to A. All of these are voluntary choices; none should be cause for alarm. If B draws on his savings, he’s getting something in return that he values: bread. No problem there. If B borrows from A, A is taking a risk and B is getting bread. No problem there. If A buys stock in B’s butter-making operation, A is taking a risk and B is getting bread. No problem there. (None of these actions is different, in principle, than allocating a portion of one’s savings to a down payment on a house, and financing the balance with a loan — which isn’t much different than selling the lender stock in one’s future earnings prospects.)

In each case, A and B are making informed decisions based on direct knowledge of their wants and the risks involved in satisfying them. The aggregation of such decisions into national accounts (e.g, the trade account) gives the impression that the transactions are collective, that “we” Americans in the aggregate are suffering at the hands of shifty foreigners, and that government ought to “do something” about it. Well, they aren’t collective decisions, the Americans involved aren’t being fleeced, and government efforts to “do something”  (e.g., raise tariffs on imported goods) invite the kind of disaster that followed enactment of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

What about unemployment that might result from trade? Well, yes, trade can cause transitional unemployment, but that’s true of domestic trade as well as international trade. If the U.S. government, as a matter of long-standing policy, had banned domestic and international trade because it might cause transitional unemployment, we wouldn’t have progressed from buggies to Model Ts to reliable Japanese cars, from parchment and quill pens to PCs, from face-to-face conversation to cell phones, and so on. In growing economies — as more-or-less laissez-faire economies are most of the time — temporary unemployment is soaked up by growth, that is, by the expansion of existing industries and the addition of new ones. It’s Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” at work.

The alternative to “creative destruction” (of which international trade is a necessary part) is the kind of insular, centrally directed economy that prevailed in Soviet Russia, where nominal “full employment” masked the wholesale misuse and real underemployment of land, labor, and capital. The same thing has happened by “democratic” means in most of Europe, and is happening by similarly “democratic” means in the United States. Witness, for example, the Environmental Protection Agency’s recent decree about “greenhouse gas” emissions.

In summary, trade is trade, whether domestic or foreign. When government acts in ways that stifle trade, the result is underemployment of land, labor, and capital. There are but two valid reason to stifle trade. One is to prevent, deter, or punish truly harmful acts. The other is to prevent, deter, or punish the easy acquisition of U.S. military secrets and technology by enemies and potential enemies.

For related posts, see these categories:

Economics – Fundamentals
Economics – Growth & Decline
Political Economy & Civil Society

Good News?

GRAPHIC UPDATED 12/14/09

What’s bad news for Obama is good news for the country. As I have said:

To hope that Obama fails is not to wish ill for the nation; to the contrary, it is to hope that Obama’s policies fail of realization because they are seen (rightly) as inimical to liberty and prosperity.

It is my sincere and fervent hope that the following trends portend good news for the liberty and prosperity of Americans:

Sources: Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and Health Care Reform Poll. Overall net approval ratings represent the difference in the percentage of  respondents strongly approving and strongly disapproving of Obama (negative numbers mean net disapproval). Health care ratings represent the difference in the percentage of respondents strongly supporting and strongly opposing Obama’s health care “plan,” or what they take to be his plan. I use Rasmussen’s polling results because Rasmussen has a good track record with respect to presidential-election polling.

The Real Constitution and Civil Disobedience

INTRODUCTION

I have no doubt that there is a “real” Constitution. Randy Barnett makes a good case for it:

Under our system, the Supreme Court has the last word on whether a statute challenged as unconstitutionality will be upheld or nullified. But it does not have the power to change the written Constitution, which always remains there to be revived when there is a political and judicial will to do so. For example, after the Supreme Court gutted the Fourteenth Amendment during Reconstruction, it remained a part of the written Constitution for a future more enlightened Supreme Court to put to good use. By the same token, the current Supreme Court can still make serious mistakes about the Constitution. Because it is in writing there is an external “there” there by which to assess its opinions.

It is equally indubitable that the United States has become a nation of unconstitutional laws — a vast number and variety of them. For proof, if proof you need, peruse the United States Code, the Code of Federal Regulations (which includes presidential Executive Orders), and the statutes and regulations of the States (accessible through State and Local Government on the Net).

Which brings me to civil disobedience:

the active refusal to obey certain laws, demands and commands of a government, or of an occupying power, without resorting to physical violence.

It is entirely reasonable to think of America’s present governments — federal, State, and local — as occupying powers. We might just as well have been invaded by a foreign power that chose to abide by our electoral rules, then substituted its own laws for what, until then, had been America’s more-or-less constitutional ones.

LEGITIMATE VS. ILLEGITIMATE LAWS

As a result of the de facto seizure of America’s governments by forces aligned against the Constitution, Americans and the American economy are weighed down with tens of thousands of intrusive, arbitrary, and wasteful laws and regulations. Every aspect of our lives is touched, directly or indirectly, by those laws and regulations.

Some laws and regulations are legitimate, in that they are consistent with liberty:

Whether a particular regulation is consistent with liberty depends on the justification offered on its behalf. Regulations are not inimical to liberty if they coordinate individual conduct as do, for example, traffic regulations mandating driving on one side of the street or the other. They may also be consistent with liberty if they prevent irreparable tortious accidents before they occur, as speed limits do. . . . Although many libertarians object to government ownership of highways, no libertarian objects in principle to a highway owner regulating its use to enhance the speed and safety of driving. Similarly, contract law is a body of rules regulating the making and enforcing of agreements, and libertarians are not opposed to contract law. . . .

A law restricting conduct is consistent with a right to liberty, therefore, if it is prohibiting wrongful acts that violate the rights of others or regulating rightful acts in such a way as to coordinate conduct or prevent the violation of rights that might accidentally occur. A law is inconsistent with liberty if it is either prohibiting rightful acts, or regulating unnecessarily or improperly. A regulation is improper when it imposes an undue burden on rightful conduct, or when its justification is merely a pretext for restricting a liberty of which others disapprove. And one way of identifying a regulation as pretextual is to assess whether the regulatory means it employs do not effectively fit its purported health and safety ends.

Here is how the majority in Lochner distinguished a constitutional exercise of the police power from an unconstitutional restraint on liberty:

In every case that comes before this court, therefore, where legislation of this character is concerned, and where the protection of the Federal Constitution is sought, the question necessarily arises: Is this a fair, reasonable and appropriate exercise of the police power of the state, or is it an unreasonable, unnecessary and arbitrary interference with the right of the individual to his personal liberty, or to enter into those contracts in relation to labor which may seem to him appropriate or necessary for the support of himself and his family?

We may conclude from all this that . . . the fact that regulations of liberty have been upheld as constitutional is no evidence that the general constitutional right to liberty does not exist. It may merely be a sign that the government has met its properly-defined burden of proof. (Randy Barnett, “Is the Constitution Libertarian?,” pages 8-9)

The difficulty is that

the Supreme Court has upheld countless federal laws restricting liberty, primarily under the power of Congress “to regulate commerce . . . among the several states” combined with an open-ended reading of the Necessary and Proper Clause. Further it has upheld the power of Congress to spend tax revenue for purposes other than “for carrying into execution” its enumerated powers, thereby exceeding the scope of the Necessary and Proper Clause. . . .

Beginning in the 1930s, the Supreme Court . . . adopted a presumption of constitutionality whenever a statute restricted unenumerated liberty rights. In the 1950s it made this presumption effectively irrebuttable. Now it will only protect those liberties that are listed, or a very few unenumerated rights such as the right of privacy. (op. cit., pp. 15, 17-18)

I consider few governmental restrictions on action as legitimate, that is, “properly regulating rightful acts,” as Barnett puts it. It is legitimate to set and enforce a low speed limit in a school zone, to exact stiff penalties for drunken driving, and to ban the use of a cell phone while driving. But it is questionably legitimate to ticket a capable, sober driver for exceeding the speed limit by 10 miles an hour on a flat stretch of well-maintained, dry interstate highway, in light traffic. And it is grossly illegitimate to enter a judicial decision that forbids a wheat farmer to exceed a federal allotment by growing additional wheat for consumption on his own farm. Indeed, the law that allows the federal government to establish such allotments in the first place is supremely illegitimate — as are all laws that do harm rather than good because they penalize and interfere with acts that are either harmless or actually beneficial.

THE ROAD TO ILLEGITIMACY, AND THE TOLL

Americans have been lulled by what Tocqueville calls “soft despotism.” As I have said,

Soft despotism is “soft” only in that citizens aren’t dragged from their houses at night and executed for imaginary crimes against the state — though they are hauled into court for not wearing seatbelts, for smoking in bars, and for various other niggling offenses to the sensibilities of nanny-staters.

Despite the absence of arbitrary physical punishment, soft despotism is despotism, period. It can be nothing but despotism when the state holds sway over your paycheck, your retirement plan, your medical care, your choice of associates, and thousands of other details of your life — from the drugs you may not buy to the kind of car you can’t drive, from where you can build a house to the features that your house must include.

How did we get to this point? We got here via the interest-group paradox:

You may believe that a particular program is worth what it costs — given that you probably have little idea of its direct costs and no idea of its indirect costs. The problem is millions of your fellow Americans believe the same thing about each of their favorite programs. Because there are thousands of government programs (federal, State, and local), each intended to help a particular class of citizens at the expense of others, the net result is that almost no one in this fair land enjoys a “free lunch.” . . .

The paradox that arises from the “free lunch” syndrome is much like [two other] paradoxes. . . . It is like the paradox of thrift, in that large numbers of individuals are trying to do something that makes certain classes of persons better off, but which in the final analysis makes those classes of persons worse off. It is like the paradox of panic, in that there is a  crowd of interest groups rushing toward a goal — a “pot of gold” — and (figuratively) crushing each other in the attempt to snatch the pot of gold before another group is able to grasp it. The gold that any group happens to snatch is a kind of fool’s gold: It passes from one fool to another in a game of beggar-thy-neighbor, and as it passes much of it falls into the maw of bureaucracy.

I call this third, insidious, paradox the interest-group paradox. It is the costliest of the three — by a long shot. It has dominated American politics since the advent of “progressivism” in the late 1800s. Today, most Americans are either “progressives” (whatever they may call themselves) or victims of “progressivism.” All too often they are both.

Today, with a century-plus of “progressivism” behind us, more than 40 percent of GDP is controlled directly by government, through taxes and regulations. Those same taxes and regulations, because of their disincentivizing effects, have imposed vastly higher hidden costs on Americans.

And there is more to come, as the demi-gods in Washington seek to repeal the laws of economics by promising more medical care to more persons while discouraging entry into the healing professions and the development of beneficial drugs. On top of that they seek to repeal the laws of physics by further constraining the economy in a fruitless struggle against global warming, which is not a man-made phenomenon.

If you think your liberty (such as it is) has survived (or will survive) those and other economic depredations, think again, for social liberty is indivisible from economic liberty:

There can be no freedom of the press if the instruments of printing are under the control of government, no freedom of assembly if the needed rooms are so controlled, no freedom of movement if the means of transport are a government monopoly, etc. This is the reason why governmental direction of all economic activity, often undertaken in the vain hope of providing more ample means for all purposes, has invariably brought severe restrictions of the ends which the individuals can pursue. (Friedrich A. Hayek, Liberalism, part 16)

A small sample of control, in today’s America, is found in a recent action by the Department of Health and Human Services. HHS prevented government-regulated insurance companies from advising policy holders of the ill effects that Obamacare would have on their insurance coverage. So much for freedom of speech.

More generally, I offer the following thoughts by Walter Lippmann (via Don Boudreaux):

I recalled this wise warning from Walter Lippmann (found on pages 105-106 of Lippmann’s 1937 book The Good Society):

“Though it is disguised by the illusion that a bureaucracy accountable to a majority of voters, and susceptible to the pressure of organized minorities, is not exercising compulsion, it is evident that the more varied and comprehensive the regulation becomes, the more the state becomes a despotic power as against the individual.  For the fragment of control over the government which he exercises through his vote is in no effective sense proportionate to the authority exercised over him by the government.”

THE LEGITIMACY, POSSIBILITY, AND URGENCY OF CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE

The seizure of America’s governments by the lawless occupying powers of “progressivism” not only has cost Americans dearly but also has made us hostages in our own land:

Voice is now so circumscribed by “settled law” that there is a null possibility of restoring Lochner and its ilk. Exit is now mainly an option for the extremely wealthy among us. (More power to them.) For the rest of us, there is no realistic escape from illegitimate government-made law, given that the rest of the world (with a few distant exceptions) is similarly corrupt.

Under the circumstances, it would be natural — and legitimate — for Americans to resort to massive civil disobedience.

And Americans often do resort to civil disobedience, but mainly in relatively trivial ways (e.g., exceeding speed limits on open highways, under safe conditions). The general reluctance of Americans to commit acts of civil disobedience is unsurprising, given the apparent entanglement of government in our lives and businesses. Unless one chooses a truly self-sufficient life, it is practically impossible to avoid governmental notice of and influence on major events and transactions, for example, births, weddings, employment, the acquisition of life’s essentials (food, clothing, shelter, medical care), and the enjoyment of stimulants, entertainment, and so on.

Accordingly, it is natural for individuals to believe that the heavy hand of government is inescapable. Thus most of us do not try to elude government’s heavy hand, except in relatively trivial ways. And we believe that those who do try to elude it — bootleggers and black marketeers, for example — are often found out and punished. But that impression is due to a kind of reverse survivor bias; that is, we know about the bootleggers and black marketeers who are caught, but we don’t know about the ones who elude official notice.

Imagine an America in which most individuals and businesses routinely commit acts of civil disobedience. Could the various governments in and of the United States possibly detect and punish more than a small fraction of those acts of civil disobedience? The answer, of course, is “no.”

What keeps most individuals and businesses from committing more than trivial acts of civil disobedience is the fear that their particular transgressions will be among the small fraction that is detected and punished. This kind of fear has an especially strong deterrent effect under oppressive regimes that rely on informants and harsh punishments to discourage acts of civil disobedience. The contrast between America and, say, Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s Russia ought to give heart to Americans. Informants and punishments there are, and always will be, but in American neither of them is on a scale to match the insidious and barbaric regimes of Hitler, Stalin, and their ilk. Not yet, at least.

And in the preceding sentence there is both hope and urgency. Our daily lives are not yet completely dominated by the state. We still have options in many aspects of our lives — even if those options, themselves, are shaped by laws and regulations. Houses and automobiles, for example, must meet thousands of government specifications, but they still are available with a broad array of features, for a broad range of prices.

But how much longer will our illusory freedom last against the onslaught of statism? That is the urgent question, given the prospects at hand for effective government control of the economy through environmental legislation, a complete government takeover of medicine, the punishment of “thought crimes,” the general expansion of paternalistic policies, and on and on.

I leave the enumeration of legitimate acts of civil disobedience as an exercise for the reader. But the time to consider civil disobedience is now, while there is a spark of liberty in the land.

See “The Constitution: Myths and Realities“.