The Persecution of Trump Will Backfire on Democrats

Just keep on doing what you’re doing, suckers.

Regarding the indictment of Donald Trump for falsification of business records to cover up hush payments to Stormy Daniels, I said that

Trump was indicted not only to “get Trump” — and end in itself for the left — but also to ensure his nomination as the GOP candidate for president in 2024. With a riled-up “base”, Trump is sure to be nominated, even if he is in prison — especially if he is in prison.

Trump will then lose the election because almost no one will vote for him other than his hard-core supporters, who probably comprise one-third of the electorate. I voted for Trump twice because he was the lesser of two evils — by a long shot — but he is now unelectable. Worse than that, his nomination will secure a Democrat victory.

A lot of otherwise GOP-leaning voters will stay home out of disgust with Trump’s crudity and resignation to a Democrat victory. That will leave a solid majority of voters — including NeverTrumpers, independents, and other pearl-clutching types — to join Yellow-Dog Democrats (there ain’t no other kind no more) to deliver a landslide victory to Joe Biden or to his successor after his influence-peddling while VP becomes undeniable or he is declared mentally incompetent, whichever comes first. It is even possible that the Dems will forgo electoral fraud, which the GOP will be better-equipped to detect in 2024, thus “legitimizing” the victory of the Dems’ nominee.

Now, I’m not so sure that Trump will be nominated. And that’s a good thing for the GOP and the country.

Why is it unlikely that Trump will be nominated? My belief (hope) rests on the possibility that a significant fraction of his “base”, as well as most other Republicans, will take stock of Trump’s legal troubles and conclude that he’s just carrying too much baggage to be a viable candidate for the presidency. I believe (hope) that Republicans, in the main, see the big picture: A win in 2024 is absolutely necessary to the preservation of what remains of America’s liberty and prosperity.

Added to the indictment mentioned above, there’s the new indictment of Trump for deliberately mishandling classified documents. And there’s more to come: a likely (if unfounded) indictment for his alleged effort to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia. and a possible (also unfounded) indictment for inciting insurrection on January 6, 2021. Add to those legal proceedings, Trump’s appeal of the verdict in E. Jean Carroll’s suit for battery, sexual harassment, and defamation.

All in all, Mr. Trump will be very busy defending himself between now and November 2024 (and probably beyond that). A lot of Republicans will be turned off by a candidate with so much baggage, as will independents — whose votes will be the deciding ones.

The upshot — if I’m right — will be the nomination and election of a more articulate and competent candidate: Ron DeSantis. If Republicans rally around him and independents continue to recoil from wokeness, DeSantis will have a fighting chance to win the presidency. And if he does, his record as governor of Florida bodes ill for “the swamp”, illegal immigration, and wokeness of all kinds. His record bodes well for the restoration of traditional morality, including one of its central tenets: taking personal responsibility for one’s life and fortune.

What Is Natural?

“Environmentalism” isn’t.

Back-to-nature types, worriers about what “humans are doing to the planet”, and neurotics (leftists) generally take a dim view of the artifacts of human existence. There’s a lot of hypocrisy in that view, of course, mixed with goodly doses of envy and virtue-signaling.

Many of the complaints heard from back-to-nature types, etc., are really esthetic. They just don’t like to envision a pipeline running across some plain that’s far away and well out of their sight. Ditto a distant and relatively small cluster of oil rigs. Such objections would seem to conflict with their preference for ugly, bird-killing, highway straddling, skyline-cluttering wind farms. Chalk it up to scientifically and economically ignorant indoctrination in the “evils” of fossil fuels.

At any rate, what makes a pipeline or an oil rig any less natural than the artifacts constructed by lower animals to promote their survival? The main difference between the artifacts of the lower animals — bird’s nests, bee hives, beaver dams, underground burrows, etc. — and those of human beings is that human artifacts are far more ingenious and complex. Moreover, because humans are far more ingenious than the lower animals, the number of different human artifacts is far greater than the number arising from any other species, or even all of them taken together.

Granted, there are artifacts that aren’t necessary to the survival of human beings (e.g., movies, TV, and electric guitars), but those aren’t the ones that the back-to-nature crowd and its allies find objectionable. No, they object to the artifacts that enable the back-to-earthers (and hypocritical leftists) to live in comfort.

In sum, pipelines and oil rigs are just as natural as bird nests. Remember that the next time you encounter an aging “flower child”. Ask her if a wind farm is more natural than a pipeline, and how she would like it if she had to forage for firewood to stay warm and cook her meals.

Intermission: More Great Hitters

A special for baseball fans.

The last time I published a post about baseball I lost two subscribers. Perhaps they were disappointed that I wasn’t writing about politics, economics, the state of America, or some other weighty subject. I usually write about weighty subjects, but I like to take an occasional break and dip into lighter fare. This post is such an occasion. Don’t worry, the next several ones will be suitably somber.

This is an elaboration of “Baseball’s Greatest Hitters for Average”. At the outset, I must admit that there’s no definitive way to conclude that so-and-so was baseball’s greatest hitter for a season, for a career, or for a given age. Baseball simply has too much “causal density” for such a determination; for example:

  • batter’s experience and physical condition

  • batter’s “handedness” relative to the pitcher’s

  • batter’s place in the batting order

  • batting prowess of the next hitter in the lineup

  • de facto size of the strike zone

  • height of the pitching mound

  • condition of the infield

  • distance to the fences

  • height of the fences

  • background distractions (buildings, lights, scoreboards, etc.)

  • tightness with which the ball is wound

  • cleanliness and resilience of the ball

  • repertoire of pitches (legal and illegal)

  • frequency of pitching changes

  • size and strength of players

  • length and weight of bats

  • size and shape of fielders’ gloves

  • defensive “shift” (of which Ted Williams was a prominent victim)

  • predominance of night games

  • quality of lighting.

  • and on and on and on.

Such things change from day to day, ballpark to ballpark, and year to year. The multiplicative effect of uncertainties about how all of those factors influence a particular hitter’s performance on a given day, at a given age, for a given season, or over a career swamps the differences in estimates of batting prowess between players.

Here, I am content to identify those players who — for a given season — not only hit for a high average but also displayed exceptional offensive prowess. Such hitters not only get on base safely but also accumulated a goodly number of doubles, triples, and home runs — in addition to singles. They may have also frequently walked (drawn a base on balls, or BB) because fearsome batters and batters who are good judges of the strike zone (overlapping categories) often get on base by walking.

In baseball record-keeping, there is a statistic for total bases on hits (TB), which accounts for whether a hit is a single, double, triple, or home run. (A single counts for one base; a double, for two; and so on.) It’s a simple matter to add BB to TB to get a statistic that I call adjusted total bases (TB*). Divide TB* by the number of a player’s plate appearances (PA) and you have TB*/PA, which is a first approximation of offensive prowess. (Regarding some commonly used alternatives, see footnote *.)

I modified the first approximation to take into account the differences between the two major leagues and season-to-season variations in at least some of the many factors listed above. Specifically, I normalized TB*/PA for a given player in a given season by dividing it by TB*/PA for the league in which a player compiled his record for the season. (For example, a player’s TB*/PA of .400 divided by the league’s TB*/PA of .300 gives a normalized TB*/PA of 1.333.) I tweaked the normalization to account for the fact that TB*/PA for the American League was strongly affected by the adoption of the designated hitter (DH) in 1973** (another statistic that adds to the cloud of uncertainty).

I began with 1890 so that I could span the careers of two legends of the game — Nap Lajoie and Honus Wagner — both of whom played from the 1890s to the 1910s. Further, to avoid the contamination of the “steroid era” of major-league baseball, I considered only TB*/PA through 1990, at which time a new set of leading hitters came on the scene, and made a mockery of the game. (Barry Bonds, I’m looking at you as a leading culprit.)

The graph below depicts each season’s leader in normalized, league-adjusted TB*/PA from 1890 through 1890, where each season’s leader compiled at least 400 PA in that season. Forty different players led the major leagues in TB*/PA over the 101-year span. (See footnote *** for a complete list, with links to each player’s page at Baseball-Reference.com, which is the source of the statistics used in this analysis.)

The upward climb to the era of Babe Ruth’s dominance and the subsequent descent are obvious. Ted Williams’s era of dominance is also prominent, though less pronounced.

The table below lists the multi-season leaders in descending order of the number of seasons as leader. (Early players on my list might have recorded more leading seasons had I gone back beyond 1890.)

(Ted Williams’s record deserves an asterisk because he lost most of 5 seasons to military service.)

Astute readers will have noticed that the 80-20 rule has been violated. It took 50 percent of the players (20 of 40) to comprise 80 percent of the single-season leaderships (81 of 101). On the other hand, the 40 players were a tiny fraction of the number of major-leaguers who had at least 400 plate appearances in at least one season during the years 1890-1990.


* Slugging percentage omits walks. On-base-plus-slugging (OPS) amounts to convoluted double counting; on-base percentage and slugging percentage are overlapping metrics. OPS also takes account of sacrifice flies (SF) and hit-by-pitcher (HBP) — events that are relatively rare, not necessarily deliberate (on the batter’s part), and which (in the case of SF) haven’t been recorded consistently over time.

** The DH adjustment is .0085, which is the difference between the changes in the American and National Leagues’ TB*/PA between two spans: 1901-1972 and 1973-2022. The AL average increased by .0375 between 1901-1972 and 1973-2022. The NL average increased by .0289 between those two spans. I attribute the difference of .0085 (rounded value) to the AL’s adoption of the DH. I therefore subtracted .0085 from the AL’s TB*/PA for each year from 1973 through 2022.

*** Here’s the list of leaders, in the order of their appearance in the graph above, with the spans of their major-league seasons given in parentheses. The links lead to their pages at Baseball-Reference.com:

  1. Hugh Duffy (1888-1906)

  2. Billy Hamilton (1888-1901)

  3. Dan Brouthers (1879-1904)

  4. Ed Delahanty (1888-1903)

  5. Honus Wagner (1897-1917)

  6. Nap Lajoie (1896-1916)

  7. Fred Clarke (1894-1915)

  8. Cy Seymour (1896-1913)

  9. George Stone (1903-1910)

  10. Ty Cobb (1905-1928)

  11. Tris Speaker (1907-1928)

  12. Joe Jackson (1908-1920)

  13. Gavvy Cravath (1908-1920)

  14. Babe Ruth (1914-1935)

  15. Rogers Hornsby (1915-1937)

  16. Jimmie Foxx (1925-1945)

  17. Lou Gehrig (1923-1939)

  18. Hank Greenberg (1930-1947)

  19. Johnny Mize (1936-1953)

  20. Ted Williams (1939-1960)

  21. Stan Musial (1941-1963)

  22. Tommy Holmes (1942-1952)

  23. Ralph Kiner (1946-1955)

  24. Al Rosen (1947-1956)

  25. Mickey Mantle (1951-1968)

  26. Henry Aaron (1954-1976)

  27. Willie Mays (1948-1973)

  28. Frank Robinson (1956-1976)

  29. Carl Yastrzemski (1961-1983)

  30. Willie McCovey (1959-1980)

  31. Billy Williams (1959-1976)

  32. Dick Allen (1963-1977)

  33. Joe Morgan (1963-1984)

  34. Mike Schmidt (1972-1989)

  35. Dave Parker (1973-1991)

  36. George Foster (1969-1986)

  37. George Brett (1973-1993)

  38. Jack Clark (1975-1992)

  39. Darryl Strawberry (1983-1999)

  40. Kevin Mitchell (1984-1998)

Deduction, Induction, and Knowledge

Which came first?

Syllogism:

All Greek males are bald.

Herodotus is a Greek male.

Therefore, Herodotus is bald.

The conclusion is false because Herodotus wasn’t bald, at least not as he is portrayed.

Moreover, the conclusion depends on a premise — all Greeks are bald — which can’t be known with certainty. The disproof of the premise by a single observation exemplifies the HumeanPopperian view of the scientific method. A scientific proposition is one that can be falsified  — contradicted by observed facts. If a proposition isn’t amenable to falsification, it is non-scientific (which doesn’t make it untrue).

In the Humean-Popperian view, a general statement such as “all Greek males are bald” can never be proven. (The next Greek male to come into view may have a full head of hair.) In this view, knowledge consists only of the accretion of discrete facts. General statements are merely provisional inferences based on what has been observed, and cannot be taken as definitive statements about what has not been observed.

Is there a way to prove a general statement about a class of things by showing that there is something about such things which necessitates the truth of a general statement about them? That approach begs the question. The “something about such things” can be discovered only by observation of a finite number of such things. The unobserved things are still lurking out of view, and any of them might not possess the “something” that is characteristic of the observed things.

All general statements about things, their characteristics, and their relationships are therefore provisional. This inescapable truth has been dressed up in the guise of inductive probability, which is a fancy way of saying the same thing.

Not all is lost, however. If it weren’t for provisional knowledge about such things as heat and gravity, many more human beings would succumb to the allure of flames and cliffs, and man would never have stood on the Moon. If it weren’t for provisional knowledge about the relationship between matter and energy, nuclear power and nuclear weapons wouldn’t exist. And on and on.

The Humean-Popperian view is properly cautionary, but it doesn’t — and shouldn’t — stand in the way of acting as if we possess knowledge. To do otherwise would result in stasis, or analysis-paralysis.

But — to advert to my favorite example — acting upon the hypothesis that CO2 emitted by human activity is a main cause of “climate change” (which can be shown to be a good thing in many respects) is foolish given the amount of evidence that the hypothesis is fatally flawed.

Look (carefully and skeptically) before you leap into action.

Is Scientific Skepticism Irrational?

Quite the opposite.

A while back I read David Stove‘s Popper and Beyond: Four Modern Irrationalists. There is something “off” about it, which is captured in a review at Amazon:

Stove’s primary target was the idea that there might be a problem about inductive inferences, one dating to Hume who was the first to notice it and try to solve it. His secondary target was Popper, whose solution to Hume’s problem was to develop a deductivist account of scientific rationality (critical rationalism, as an alternative to logical empiricism)–naively attempting to change the philosophy of science to address a problem which, in Stove’s opinion, doesn’t exist. His tertiary targets were “historicist” philosophers of science such as Kuhn and Feyerabend….

One does not learn the actual positions of any of these folks from Stove’s book, unfortunately, much less any of their actual errors or excesses. Stove’s own position seems to be a kind of “naive realism” about scientific change and progress: almost as if there were no questions worth asking on the subject. I’ve encountered secondary literature on Kuhn and Feyerabend before that utterly failed to understand them, but Stove doesn’t even make the attempt.

Here is Stove’s argument, reduced to its essence:

  • Scientific knowledge has progressed.

  • Some philosophers of science hold the view that scientific knowledge is provisional because what is believed to be true can always be falsified by new knowledge.

  • Saying that scientific knowledge is provisional is tantamount to saying that scientific knowledge has not progressed.

  • The philosophers of science who hold that scientific knowledge is provisional are therefore irrational because they effectively deny that scientific knowledge has progressed.

Stove assumes that which he seeks to prove. His reasoning is therefore circular. His book is a waste of ink, paper, and pixels.

Stove nevertheless (unwittingly) poses a question that demands an answer: If scientific knowledge is provisional (as it always is), is it possible to say that scientific knowledge has progressed; that is, more is known about the universe and its contents than was known in the past?

The provisional answer is “yes”. Human knowledge of the universe progresses, in general, but it is never certain knowledge and some of it is false knowledge (error). Witness the not-so-settled science of cosmology, which has been in flux for eons.

There is broad but not universal agreement that the universe (or at least the part of the universe which is observable to human beings) originated in a Big Bang. Expansion followed. But the rate of expansion of the universe and the cause(s) of that expansion remain beyond the ken of science. The knowledge that the universe is expanding — and expanding at an ever-increasing rate — is an advance on prior knowledge (or belief), which held that the universe is contracting or that it is neither contracting nor expanding. But the knowledge of an accelerating expansion must be provisional because new observations may yield a different description of the universe.

That example brings us to the essential dichotomy of science: observation vs. explanation. What is observed is observed with varying degrees of certainty. The variations depend on the limitations of our instruments, sensory organs, and brains (which may be conditioned to misperceive some phenomena). Where things often go awry is in explaining that which is perceived, especially if the perception is wrong.

A classic case of misperception is the once-dominant belief that the Sun circles Earth. It’s easy to see how that misperception arose. But having arisen, it led to erroneous explanations. One erroneous explanation was that the Sun is embedded in a “sky dome” that surrounds Earth at some distance and rotates around it.

A current case of misperception is the deliberately inculcated belief that the general rise in observed temperatures on Earth from the 1970s (or is it the 1850s?) to the present (except for the current pause of almost 9 years) is due almost entirely to an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 caused by human activity. The dominance of that theory — which objective observers know to be incomplete and unsubstantiated — may well lead to the impoverishment and death of vast numbers of persons in North America and Western Europe because the leaders of those countries seem to be virtue-signaling CO2-reduction race to limit and eventually ban the use of fossil fuels.

If David Stove were still with us, he would probably say what I have just said about the current misperception, given his penchant for iconoclasm. But where would that leave his “naïve realism” about scientific progress? He would have to reject it. In fact, knowing (as he undoubtedly did) of the erroneous belief in and explanation a geocentric universe, he should have rejected his “naïve realism” about scientific progress before taking Popper et al. to task for their skepticism about the validity of new scientific knowledge.

Yes, scientific knowledge accrues. It accrues because knowledge (to a scientist) is ineluctably incomplete; there is always a deeper or more detailed explanation of phenomena to be found. The search for the deeper or more detailed explanation usually turns up new facts (or surmises) about physical existence.

But scientific knowledge actually accrues only when new “knowledge” is treated as provisional and tested rigorously. Even then, it may still prove to be wrong. That which isn’t disproved (falsified) adds to the store of (provisional) scientific knowledge. But, as Stove fails to acknowledge, much old “knowledge” hasn’t survived, and some current “knowledge” shouldn’t survive (e.g., the CO2-driven theory of “climate change”).

Here is the argument that Stove should have made:

  • Scientific knowledge has progressed on many fronts, but not to the exclusion of error.

  • Some philosophers of science hold the view that scientific knowledge is provisional because what is believed to be true can always be falsified by new knowledge.

  • Given the track record of science, those philosophers are correct to say that scientific knowledge is provisional.

  • It is possible for scientific knowledge to accrue, and to be provisional at the same time.

Think of all of the ink, paper, and pixels that could been saved if Stove had thought more carefully about science and issued a PowerPoint slide instead of a book.

The Real Tragedy of the End of "Free Speech"

It isn’t quite what you might think.

The real tragedy is that the left got there first.

Freedom of speech is beneficial only if a vast majority of the populace shares certain fundamental values:

  • Free markets produce the best outcomes, especially when people take personal responsibility for their economic situation.

  • Social comity rests on taking personal responsibility for one’s actions, not making excuses or blaming “the system”.

  • The last six of the Ten Commandments are the best guides to proper behavior.

  • Duly enacted laws are to be upheld until they are duly revised or rescinded.

  • Social and economic freedom come down to mutual trust, mutual respect, and mutual forbearance, which describes the state of liberty. Without those things, there is no liberty.

The Framers of the Constitution could not envision a free society in which the foregoing tenets were routinely and gleefully violated. That is because there cannot be a free society where the foregoing tenets are routinely and gleefully violated.

The only remedy for America’s present condition, as I have said many times, is a national divorce that leads to the creation of a (smaller) nation that is dedicated to liberty. That new nation would need a new Constitution (e.g., this one). And that new Constitution would (inter alia) bar creeping leftism; for example:

Congress may … enact laws prohibiting and punishing the utterance or publication of ideas that would circumscribe the economic or social liberties of citizens of the United States, as they are recognized in this Constitution.

If that seems draconian, you haven’t been paying attention. The left is in the process of effecting such a regime, albeit without constitutional authorization. Having been allowed to do so, you can be sure that the left would do it again if given the cover of “free speech”.

America Is Dead

The obituary is overdue.

I wrote this in “Society and Genetic Kinship”:

I define society as an enduring and cooperating social group whose members have developed organized patterns of relationships through interaction with one another.

A society coheres around genetic kinship, and is defined by its common culture, which includes its moral code. The culture is developed, transmitted through, and enforced by the voluntary institutions of society (civil society). The culture is the product of trial and error, where those elements that become part of received culture serve societal coherence and — in the best case — help it to thrive. Coherence and success depend also on the maintenance of mutual respect, trust, and forbearance among society’s members. Those traits arise in part from the sharing of a common culture (which is an artifact of societal interaction) and from genetic kinship, which is indispensable to societal coherence. If the foregoing description is correct, there is one aspect of society — and one only — that a society cannot “manufacture” through its social processes. That aspect is genetic-cultural kinship.

The United States, for a very long time, was a polity whose disparate parts cohered, regionally if not nationally, because the experience of living in the kind of small community sketched above was a common one. Long after the majority of Americans came to live in urban complexes, a large fraction of the residents of those complexes had grown up in small communities.

This was Old America — and it was predominant for almost 200 years after America won its independence from Britain. Old America‘s core constituents, undeniably, were white, and they had much else in common: observance of the Judeo-Christian tradition; roots in the British Isles and continental Europe; hard work and self-reliance as badges of honor; family, church, and club as cultural transmitters, social anchors, and focal points for voluntary mutual aid.

Mutual trust, respect, and forbearance [the foundation of liberty] arise from the emotional force of genetic kinship. They may be mimicked in arrangements of convenience, such as economic ones. But those arrangements last only as long as they are profitable to all parties.

The old ways have largely vanished with the small communities of distant memory. The aggrandizement of government and its usurpation of civil society is largely to blame. Government’s assault on civil society has been magnified by the internet and social media, which spread divisiveness and hate.

None of that is going away. Civil society will continue to dominate the lives of some Americans, but only in isolated pockets where there is deep-seated genetic kinship. Civil society no longer survives on a scale that would nourish Old America.

Welcome to Dystopia.

The Mind Reels

Welcome to the bravest of new worlds.

Dylan Mulvaney, a man who pretends to be a woman (and who sank Bud Light), now claims to prefer women for sex. Does that make him a lesbian or a heterosexual man?

I report, you decide.

My Defense of the A-Bomb

It’s not what you might think.

The dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki resulted in the end of World War II. Like many other commentators, I have defended the decision by President Truman to drop the bombs on utilitarian grounds. That case has been made by many, Richard B. Frank among them:

The critics [of the use of the A-bomb to defeat Japan] share three fundamental premises. The first is that Japan’s situation in 1945 was catastrophically hopeless. The second is that Japan’s leaders recognized that fact and were seeking to surrender in the summer of 1945. The third is that thanks to decoded Japanese diplomatic messages, American leaders knew that Japan was about to surrender when they unleashed needless nuclear devastation. The critics divide over what prompted the decision to drop the bombs in spite of the impending surrender, with the most provocative arguments focusing on Washington’s desire to intimidate the Kremlin. Among an important stratum of American society–and still more perhaps abroad–the critics’ interpretation displaced the traditionalist view….

[I]t is clear [from a review of the evidence now available] that all three of the critics’ central premises are wrong. The Japanese did not see their situation as catastrophically hopeless. They were not seeking to surrender, but pursuing a negotiated end to the war that preserved the old order in Japan, not just a figurehead emperor. Finally, thanks to radio intelligence, American leaders, far from knowing that peace was at hand, understood–as one analytical piece in the “Magic” Far East Summary stated in July 1945, after a review of both the military and diplomatic intercepts–that “until the Japanese leaders realize that an invasion can not be repelled, there is little likelihood that they will accept any peace terms satisfactory to the Allies.” This cannot be improved upon as a succinct and accurate summary of the military and diplomatic realities of the summer of 1945. [“Why Truman Dropped the Bomb,” Washington Examiner, August 8, 2005]

Among the “countless lives” saved were those of Japanese as well as American nationals. I have in the past defended the dropping of the A-bombs because of the saving of “countless lives”. As a convert to the ranks of anti-utilitarianism, I now reject that argument. I cannot, in good conscience, assert with god-like authority that the killing of X people was worth the saving of Y lives, even where Y is vastly greater than X.

But I am nevertheless able to defend the dropping of the A-bombs because doing so very possibly saved certain lives. Six of my mother’s seven brothers served in the Navy and Coast Guard during World War II. (The seventh had been in service several years before the war, and was ineligible for further duty because his skull was fractured in a civilian accident in 1941.) Had the war continued, a long and bloody invasion of Japan would have ensued. One or more of my uncles might have been killed or injured seriously. My maternal grandmother, to whom I was greatly attached, would have suffered great emotional distress, as would have my aunts and many of my cousins. Their emotional distress and sadness would have become my emotional distress and sadness.

Beyond that, many Americans who had fought to defend the United States from the militaristic, authoritarian regimes in Tokyo and Berlin would have died. Their deaths would have affected many of my friends and their families, and would have made America a sadder and poorer place in which to live.

I empathize with the Japanese victims of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and with the Japanese victims of other attacks by U.S. armed forces. I hate the thought of death and suffering — unless they are deserved as punishment for wrong-doing — regardless of the nationality, religion, race, ethnicity, social class, or political views of the victims. But I do not equate the lives of those nearest and dearest to me with the lives of those distant from me. Leftists, “liberals” (if there any left), and left-libertarians like to pretend that they do, but they are either fools or liars when they say such things.

"Inherit the Wind" in Retrospect

Rejecting sophistry.

I enjoyed immensely Inherit the Wind, a 1960 “message” film directed by Stanley Kramer, which I saw in the year of its release. The film starred two sterling actors of Hollywood’s true Golden Age: Spencer Tracy and Fredric March.

I enjoyed the film not only for the acting and literate script, but also because it portrayed Tracy’s character — Clarence Darrow in the guise of “Henry Drummond” — as the hero of the piece who demolishes his opponent at the bar — William Jennings Bryan in the guise of “Matthew Harrison Brady”.

“Drummond” defends “Bertram Cates” (John T. Scopes), who is on trial in 1925 for violating a Tennessee law that forbids the teaching of evolution in Tennessee’s public schools. “Brady” is one of the prosecutors, and the only one who figures prominently in the film.

According to the script of Inherit the Wind, Drummond/Darrow exposes Brady/Bryan as an ignorant religious zealot after putting him on the stand as a witness for the prosecution. Thus my enjoyment of the film, which I saw when I was a “sophisticated” junior in college and a recent convert from Catholicism to agnosticism.

Time passes, and the world seems much different to me now. I utterly reject the hatefulness of anti-religious zealotry, which has morphed into a key component of the vast left-wing conspiracy to suppress all dissent from America’s new totalitarianism. Thus my enjoyment of a piece by Mark Pulliam. Writing at Law & Liberty in “Inheriting the Wind, or Reaping the Whirlwind?“, Pulliam exposes Inherit the Wind as a piece of grossly inaccurate anti-religious propaganda. He ends with this:

In Inherit the Wind, Bryan/Brady is unfairly presented as a ridiculous fool—a pathetic figure. Bryan’s words show that he was thoughtful, decent, and—for his time—wise, albeit uninformed. And he won the case, beating the man regarded as one of the most formidable courtroom advocates of all time. Bryan was not so much an opponent of evolution as he was of Social Darwinism, and the Nietzschean philosophy he felt it represented.

Unfortunately, Bryan’s legacy as a man of faith has been besmirched by Hollywood’s willingness to distort history in the aid of promoting its agenda. The left’s disdain for religion and religious belief has only gained momentum since 1925. From simply mocking piety, the elite intelligentsia has progressed to banning prayer in public schools, forbidding aid to religious schools, removing religious symbols from public property, deeming Judeo-Christian morality to be “irrational,” and persecuting Christian bakers (and other vendors) for honoring their religious consciences.  In 2016, enough American voters—many who are arguably the heirs to the long-ridiculed citizens of Dayton—rose up and pushed back.

The Scopes trial, so badly mischaracterized in Inherit the Wind, better illustrates another Biblical verse, “For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.”

Amen.

A Thought about Conspiracy Theories

Unfalsifiable hypotheses.

A conspiracy theory (e.g., LBJ was behind the assassination of JFK) is often dismissed because, it is said, no party to the conspiracy has ever admitted that there was such a conspiracy or has left any evidence of it.

Why would a party to a conspiracy talk about it or leave any evidence of it? The darker the conspiracy (e.g., the elimination of a president) the less likely it is that a party to it would say anything about it or leave any evidence of it. What evidence that might be found is readily dismissed as circumstantial or coincidental. A person who might have been privy to a particular aspect of the conspiracy, and who years later admits some knowledge of it, is readily dismissed as delusional, senile, or publicity-seeking.

What about the conspiracy against Trump: to defeat him in 2016, to hamstring his presidency, to deny him re-election in 2020, and to legally harass him and thereby make him unelectable in 2024? I would call it an ad hoc conspiracy; it developed over time as various parties acted to advance particular interests of their. But it wasn’t a conspiracy that was carefully planned at the outset and executed according to that plan.

An effective conspiracy leaves no trace but the outcome of the conspiracy. An effective conspiracy is planned and executed by persons who are committed fully to its success and competent to make it succeed without detection of the conspiracy and its workings. Suspicions may abound, but they are left without sound footing.

Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence.

The Interest-Group Paradox

“Free lunches” abound.

Pork-barrel legislation exemplifies the interest-group paradox in action, though the paradox encompasses much more than pork-barrel legislation. There are myriad government programs that — like pork-barrel projects — are intended to favor particular classes of individuals. Here is a minute sample:

  • Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, for the benefit of the elderly

  • Tax credits and deductions, for the benefit of low-income families, charitable and other non-profit institutions, and home buyers (with mortgages)

  • Progressive income-tax rates, for the benefit of persons in the mid-to-low income brackets

  • Subsidies for various “essential” industries and products (e.g., solar panels, wind farms, EVs)

  • Import quotas, tariffs, and other restrictions on trade, for the benefit of particular industries and/or labor unions

  • Pro-union laws (in many States), for the benefit of unions and unionized workers

  • Non-smoking ordinances, for the benefit of bar and restaurant employees and non-smoking patrons.

What do these examples have in common? Answer: Each comes with costs. There are direct costs (e.g., higher taxes for some persons, higher prices for imported goods), which the intended beneficiaries and their proponents hope to impose on non-beneficiaries. Just as important, there are hidden costs of various kinds (e.g., disincentives to work and save, disincentives to make investments that spur economic growth).

You may believe that a particular program is worth what it costs — given that you probably have little idea of its direct costs and no idea of its hidden costs. The problem is that millions of your fellow Americans believe the same thing about each of their favorite programs. Because there are thousands of government programs (federal, State, and local), each intended to help a particular class of citizens at the expense of others, the net result is that almost no one in this fair land enjoys a “free lunch”. Even the relatively few persons who might seem to have obtained a “free lunch” — homeless persons taking advantage of a government-provided shelter — often are victims of the “free lunch” syndrome. Some homeless persons may be homeless because they have lost their jobs and can’t afford to own or rent housing. But they may have lost their jobs because of pro-union laws, minimum-wage laws, or progressive tax rates (which caused “the rich” to create fewer jobs through business start-ups and expansions). And they may be homeless because programs meant to aid the homeless encourage more homelessness.

The paradox that arises from the “free lunch” syndrome is like the paradox of panic, in that there is a  crowd of interest groups rushing toward a goal — a “pot of gold” — and (figuratively) crushing each other in the attempt to snatch the pot of gold before another group is able to grasp it. The gold that any group happens to snatch is a kind of fool’s gold: It passes from one fool to another in a game of beggar-thy-neighbor, and as it passes much of it falls into the maw of bureaucracy.

The interest-group paradox has dominated American politics since the advent of “Progressivism” in the late 1800s. Today, most Americans are either “progressives” or victims of “progressivism”. All too often they are both.

Theodore Dalrymple Speaks for Me

Almost none of the news is fit to print.

Here:

Among the proofs that we [humans] were not made for happiness but on the contrary often seek out its opposite is the fact that so many of us follow the news closely, though we know it will make us wretched to do so. We pretend that we have a need to be informed and are shocked when we meet someone who hasn’t the faintest idea of what is going on in the world. How can he bear to be so ignorant, how can he be so indifferent? It is our duty as citizens of a democracy to be informed, or to inform ourselves, even at the cost of our own misery; because, of course, news rarely gives us reasons to rejoice.

Economic news is almost always bad. The currency is too strong or too weak, never just right. The interest rate is too high or too low. Inflation is worryingly slow or fast. Natural resources are running out or no longer needed, and all the equipment to obtain them is redundant. Too much is imported and not enough exported, or vice versa. The minimum wage is too generous or too mean or should not exist at all. Shares are overvalued or undervalued, but however they are valued, the next crash is round the corner—though, of course, no exact date can be put upon it, which somehow makes the anxiety all the greater.

Political news, especially in relation to foreign affairs, is yet worse. The leaders of even the best countries are scoundrels, otherwise they wouldn’t be leaders. They are incompetent in everything except self-advancement and self-preservation. They don’t care a fig for the man in the street (of whom one is one). Whoever replaces them, however, will be even worse. Not for nothing did Gibbon tell us that “History is indeed little more than the register of the crimes, follies and misfortunes of mankind.”

The main point:

For the vast majority of those who follow the news, there is nothing they can do about it. They follow the news not because, by doing so, they might make it better, or because they will base any personal decisions on it, but because they are addicted. Somerset Maugham pointed out that great readers often read because they have the equivalent of withdrawal symptoms (in this case, boredom) if their eyes do not fall on print for any length of time, and they would rather read a railway timetable or the label of the ingredients of a prepared food that they have never eaten than nothing at all. “Of that lamentable company am I,” said Maugham—and so am I.

People are addicted to news that has a deleterious psychological effect on them but that they are impotent to affect [emphasis added].

I live with a news junkie, and abandon the TV room immediately after the local weather forecast so that I am not subjected to NBC Nightly News (a shoutfest of gloom and doom).

In general, I eschew “news” (usually propaganda) about current events for the reason a vampire eschews sunlight: It shrivels my soul.

Baseball's Greatest Hitters for Average

Something to chew on (bubblegum, of course).

I published several posts at my old blogs about the American League’s greatest hitters for average: here, here, here, here, and here. The analysis that underlies the findings in those posts is complex — and unnecessarily so. In the last of the posts, I address and dismiss another writer’s exceedingly complex approach to the question of who was the greatest hitter.

That writer and I are both guilty of having glossed over the statistical uncertainties that arise from complex approaches that try to account for such differences as these (and others):

  • Ballpark advantage/disadvantage (a broad measure that doesn’t reflect individual hitting patterns and adjustments)

  • The (apparent) downward trend in reaction time (a mass phenomenon, if true, but one that may not apply to the best ballplayers of various generations)

  • Age (which must matter, but the effect isn’t uniform).

I am therefore reverting to a simple method that paints a broad picture of relative batting prowess.

I am also including National League hitters. Thus the title of this post.

Here’s my new method:

  1. To be considered, a player must have won at least two batting titles.*

  2. I computed for each player (list below**) a series of centered, three-year batting averages for three-year spans in which the player averaged at least 400 plate appearances a season. I used three-year averages to “smooth” year-to-year ups and downs and weed out one-year wonders.

  3. To normalized the raw batting average, I computed a series of centered, three-year league batting averages for each major league.

  4. I adjusted the AL averages downward (by .0067) for the years 1973 through 2022, to account for the rise in the league batting average with the AL’s adoption of the designated-hitter rule in 1973.***

  5. I divided the centered, three-year averages for each player (step 2) by the corresponding centered, adjusted, three-year league averages (steps 3 and 4). The resulting value (e.g., 1.25) indicates how well the player hit for the three years (plotted against the middle year) relative to the league average for the same three years (e.g., 1.25 = 25 percent above the league average).

Figure 1 is a chronological comparison of the adjusted averages for each player who had the highest average at least once. The legend lists the players in the order in which they first attained the highest average.

FIGURE 1

Here’s how many times each player attained top rank:

Altuve’s total — and possibly Cabrera’s — will drop as new names join the list of those eligible for consideration.

Figure 2 offers an age-based comparison, for what it’s worth. It certainly simplifies matters.

FIGURE 2

Figure 2 highlights Cobb’s dominance. The rest of the players, except for Rose and Yastrzemski are there on merit. Rose and Yaz simply persevered.

Rose, for many reasons, deserves obloquy. I will restrict my remarks here to Rose’s mistakenly praised accomplishment of compiling more hits than Cobb did: 4,256 vs. 4,189. Rose had 14,053 at-bats to Cobb’s 11,440. If Rose had hit .366 (as Cobb did), he would have compiled 5,146 hits, 890 more than his actual total. Here’s another way to look at: If Rose had compiled 4,189 hits in his first 11,440 at-bats (as Cobb did), he would have gone 67 for 2,613 in the rest of his career — a risible average of .026.

A final note: Ted Williams’s record would shine more brightly if he hadn’t missed most of five seasons to military service during World War II and the Korean War. He will come to the fore when I get to all-around hitters — batsmen who hit for high average with power.


* I made exceptions for Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, who each won one title but are legends of the game. Nor could Shoeless Joe Jackson be neglected. I also made exceptions for Mickey Mantle and Al Kaline, who each won one title and had long, outstanding careers. I rejected Larry Walker, who derived the unquestionable benefit of playing almost half of his games in Coors Field, where there’s plenty of room to hit the ball where the outfielders aren’t — and into the stands because of Denver’s thin air. I also rejected Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez of PED infamy. (Though Ramirez had only one batting title, he enjoyed a long, high-average, but tainted career.)

** Here’s the list of batters I considered, with the spans of their major-league seasons in parentheses. The links lead to their pages at Baseball-Reference.com, from which I drew all the statistics used in this analysis:

I began with Lajoie and Wagner because of their prowess and also because their careers substantially overlapped the early years of the American League. Lajoie started in the NL, but ended up playing most of his games in the AL.

*** The DH adjustment is .0067, which is the difference between the changes in the American and National Leagues’ averages between two spans: 1901-1972 and 1973-2022. The AL average increased slightly — by .0003 between 1901-1972 and 1973-2022. But the NL average dropped by .006 between those two spans. I attribute the difference of .0067 to the AL’s adoption of the DH.

The Paradoxes and Consequences of Liberty and Prosperity

The age of the Golden Mean is long past.

How did you go bankrupt?”
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

That stands as a metaphor for America’s decline.

Here’s another one: The soil in which the seeds of decline were to be planted was broken in the Progressive Era of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The seeds were planted and nourished by “leaders”, “intellectuals”, and “activists” from TR’s time to the present. The poisonous crop burst blossomed brightly in the 1930s and again in the 1960s, but it had not yet engulfed the land. It continued to spread slowly (and often unheeded) for several decades before racing across the land in recent years. Its poisonous vines are now strangling liberty and prosperity.

These are the paradoxes of liberty and prosperity: Without a moral foundation they lead to their own destruction.

If you value liberty, you do not countenance speech and actions that subvert it. If you value prosperity, you must be careful not to let it breed the kind of idleness (of mind and body) that gives rise to speech and actions that subvert liberty — and thus prosperity.

The Founders understood those things. They believed that the Constitution would preserve liberty and foster prosperity because they believed that Americans would remain religious and moral. They did not believe that Americans would undermine liberty by being soft on crime, by feeding masses (and elites) at the public trough (and at the expense of taxpayers), or by accommodating foreign aggression. They did not believe that Americans would countenance such things, nor that political leaders would suborn and join efforts to ostracize, suppress, and oppress those Americans who oppose such things.

The Founders, sadly, were wrong. The did not and could not foresee these events (and many more not mentioned):

  • A goodly fraction of Americans would spurn religion and become morally slack and complacent about the preservation of liberty.

  • Freedom of speech and assembly would be turned against liberty, to foster crime, lack of personal responsibility, and the accommodation of deadly enemies, within and without.

  • Firearms, always omnipresent in America for useful purposes, would become violent, murderous extensions of a growing tendency to toward psychological instability in a morally rootless populace.

  • Governments, political “elites”, and corporations would celebrate and reward (or fail to punish) persons based on the color of their skin (as long as it isn’t white or “yellow”)*, their pro-constitutional political views (which “exonerate” many whites), and their sex (preferably female or confused).

  • Abortion would become legal and support for abortion would be openly and boastfully proclaimed by political leaders and “elites”. Unborn human beings would be disposed of as inconveniences and treated like garbage.

  • Parents would lose control of the upbringing of their children, who might be cajoled into psychologically devastating treatments and surgeries by teachers and others under the rubric of “gender-affirming care”.

  • Women and girls would be forced to room with, shower with, and compete against males who “identify” as females (or “other”).

  • Intelligence and superior (non-athletic) skills would be denounced as unfair and “white supremacist” (with Asians counting as white).

  • Lawlessness and pathological deviancy would be rewarded (or not punished).

  • Leading politicians and “activists” would bay and howl for the confiscation of arms, under the rubric of “gun control”, when the underlying problem isn’t gun ownership by moral and mental depravity.

  • Political “leaders” would enable and allow a virtual invasion of the country, despite its negative consequences for the “little people” whom those “leaders” and other “elites” claim to champion.

  • The national government (and many others) would ignore science and invoke pseudo-science to force Americans into isolation, disrupt the economy, and burden the poorest Americans because of a virus that would have run its course naturally and less destructively than had it been combated scientifically.

  • The national government (and many others) would ignore science and invoke pseudo science to make Americans (especially poor Americans) poorer in an unnecessary and futile quest to “save the planet” from the use of fossil fuels, fertilizers, and other productive substances that the majority of the world’s populace will not refrain from using. (Regarding the state of science, see Maggie Kelly’s, “Professors Publish ‘Controversial’ Paper Defending Merit in Science”, The College Fix, May 2, 2023.)

  • Prosperity — a fruit of liberty — would foster the moral softness and the mental laxity that gives rise to addle-pated schemes such as those outlined above.

  • Vast numbers of Americans — having been indoctrinated in public schools, in left-dominated universities, and by the Democrat-allied media — would believe and subscribe to such schemes, which are made palatable by the application of double-speak labels to them (e.g., “defense of the homeland”, “combating misinformation”, “following the science”).

  • Government officials, including law-enforcement officers, would collude with and encourage the press and other purveyors of “information” to distort and suppress facts about much that is alluded to above, to discredit and hound a president (Trump) who opposed them, and to help elect and protect possibly the most corrupt president in America’s history (Biden) because it is through him that the left’s agenda is being implemented.

  • All of this (and more) would occur because almost-absolute power would accrue to the morally (and sometimes venally) corrupt politicians and their powerful enablers who advance and enforce such schemes.

Had the Founders foreseen what later generations of Americans would make of the liberty and prosperity bequeathed them, what might the Founders have done differently? It doesn’t matter. What matters now is what happens next.

In the best of possible worlds, there would be a voluntary return to something much closer to the America that the Founders envisioned. (Even a return to the post-New Deal 1940s and 1950s would do.) If such a return were in the cards, it would show up in the statements of political elites — chief among the being Democrats in government and their highly placed power-brokers, donors, and “intellectuals”.

Those statements would have to come when there is not an election at hand, which is when leftists often start making moderate noises so as to lull independents and even some nominal Republicans into voting for them. (Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden are masters of hypocrisy.) But aside from a few lonely voices (e.g., Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr.), it is unlikely that the Democrat Party will actually reject the leftist dogmas that have sundered the nation and are threatening to impoverish it.

Might rejection come when enough “minority” voters and women have had enough of “enlightened” policies and their economic and social consequences? Old habits are hard to break, and it would take a major turnaround in voting habits to yield the kind of wholesale rejection of Democrats that would drive them from power, let alone cause them to change their spots.

I don’t mean something like the turnaround in the House of Representatives following the elections of 1994 and 2010 (GOP gains of 12 and 15 percent). I mean something like the turnaround of 1930-1932 (total Democrat gains of 91 percent). In the wake of that turnaround, Democrats went on to control the House for the next 60 years (except for post-World War II reaction of two years).

But the mass rejection of the GOP in 1930 and 1932 was a consequence of an economic upheaval, the Great Depression, that hit vast numbers of Americans and hit them suddenly and hard where it hurts: in the pocketbook. The policies that are now engulfing the land, onerous as they may be, are insidious by comparison — and are practically ignored or touted as “good things” by most media (including “entertainment” media).

Moreover, “woke” America is the laughing-stock of its enemies. And too weak to stare them down. The growing unwillingness and inability of America’s “leaders” to deter and fight enemies** really doesn’t matter to those enemies. In the end, the will to resist aggression and to accede to the wishes of aggressors depends on the will of the populace to stand together against aggression. That will, in turn, depends on broad (if not unanimous) allegiance to the survival and success of the nation.

There is no longer such an allegiance. The left hates what America long was, and will not relent until that America is destroyed. The right hates what America is rapidly becoming at the hands of the left. A house divided against itself cannot stand.

I used to believe that an event that threatened the lives and livelihoods of all Americans would re-unite them. I no longer believe that.

I now believe that a national divorce — a negotiated partition of the nation — is a dire necessity. (Its precursor, a concerted secession, is legal under the Constitution.) It would allow a large fraction of Americans, perhaps half of them, to break free of the economic and social oppressions that emanate from Washington. It would also allow those same Americans to defend themselves against invaders from the south and overseas enemies instead of wasting their treasure on the left’s destructive agenda.

Absent a national divorce, everyone will go down with a sinking ship. Across the land there will be declining material comfort, rising criminality, rampant social acrimony, the suppression of views that threaten the grip of the ruling class, the oppression of persons who express those views, and a fascistic arrangement between politicians and favored corporations — those that subscribe to the quasi-religion of “climate change” and the “wokeness” that propels schemes that put skin color, sex (or lack of it), and other personal characteristics above truth, above merit, and above the rule of law.

My apologies to readers who have seen my many other posts that deal with the subjects of this one. I had to get this off my chest. I will now move on to other subjects.


* Proponents of anti-white discrimination might feel justified because some Founders held slaves, and slavery certainly played a key role in anti-black discrimination — some of it state-enforced. But if racial discrimination is wrong, why should today’s whites be victimized when none of them holds slaves and almost none of them derives any benefit from slave-holding in the distant past. “White privilege” and “white supremacy” are mere slogans that are meant to draw attention away from the fact that, on average, whites do better than blacks because whites are more intelligent than blacks.

** The so-called proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is a costly and inconsequential sideshow. See, for example, this, this, and this.


For much more, browse “Blog History and Index of Posts”, especially the posts listed under America Divided; Economics and Economists; Liberty, Rights, and the Constitution; Politics, Politicians, and Government in Action; Science, Pseudoscience, and the Tools of Science; and War, Peace, and the Tools of Strategy.

Here’s a minuscule but noteworthy sample of recent posts and articles by other writers that bear on the theme of this post:

Mark Hyman, “‘Woke’ Defined”, The American Spectator, April 15, 2023

Victor Davis Hanson, “Can We Do Anything about America’s Decline?”, American Greatness, April 18, 2023

Kevin Slack, “American Despotism”, American Greatness, May 6, 2023

Dov Fischer, “The Whole Thing Stinks — And Now the Trump Farce”, The American Spectator, May 10, 2023

J.B. Shurk, “‘The Official Truth’: The End of Free Speech That Will End America”, Gatestone Institute, May 28, 2023

Stats and Commentary: May 10, 2023

Economics and politics by the numbers.

GDP Trends

Here’s the latest, including the first (April 2023) estimate of GDP in the first quarter of 2023:

The exponential trend line indicates a constant-dollar (real) growth rate for the entire period of 0.77 percent quarterly, or 3.1 percent annually. The actual beginning-to-end annual growth rate is also 3.1 percent.

The red bands parallel to the trend line delineate the 95-percent (1.96 sigma) confidence interval around the trend. GDP has been below the confidence interval since the government-induced pandemic recession of 2020. Come to think of it, the back-to-back recessions of 1980-1982 and the Great Recession of 2008-2010 were also government-caused — the government in those cases being the Federal Reserve. The short recession of 2022, which may soon be followed by another one, can also be chalked up to the Fed.

Here’s another depiction of the general decline in real economic growth:

And here’s another view:

The trend lines, which reflect the rate of growth during each business cycle, are getting progressively “flatter”, that is, the rate of growth (with a few exceptions) is dropping from cycle to cycle.

However you look at it, the steady decline in real GDP growth is the handiwork of government spending and regulatory policies. For much more about that plague, which has existed for more than a century, see this and this.

Unemployment

The government-reported unemployment rate of 3.4 percent for April 2023 is actually 10.1 percent. What the government doesn’t publicize is the labor-force participation rate, which has dropped from its January 2000 peak of 67.3 percent to 62.6 percent. (See this post for details of the calculation.) Here’s an up-to-date graph of nominal vs. actual unemployment rates:

The good news is that the labor-force participation rate is on the rise:

That’s a good sign for inflation. Perhaps it will actually “cool” — but it has a long way to go.

Inflation

The index of prices for urban consumers (CPI-U) is the one that gets the headlines. There has been much ado in recent days about the drop in the rate of inflation, which only means that prices (as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) aren’t rising quite as rapidly as they had been.

Here’s how things looked through April 2023:

Today’s big headline in the leftist media is that inflation “cooled” to an annual rate of 4.9 percent. Big whoop! It “cooled” from 4.98 percent to 4.93 percent, a difference that is surely well within the margin of error for CPI statistics. Moreover, the four-quarter average of annualized monthly readings has been rising since December 2022 and is now 6.81 percent.

Rumors of the demise of inflation are premature.

The Stock Market

A bear market is usually defined as decline of at least 20 percent in a broad stock-market index. The S&P 500 index topped out at 4818.22 in January 2022, dropped to 3636.87 in June, rose to 4325.28 in August, dropped to 3491.58 in October — the low (to date) for the current bear market, 27 percent below the January peak.

Since then, the index has risen, dropped, and risen again. Yesterday’s closing price of 4119.17 left the index almost 15 percent below its peak. Technically (and arbitrarily), the market is no longer in bear country, but that doesn’t mean that the bear market is over.

Here’s the story to date:

The dashed red line is 20 percent below the January 2022 high. The meandering route of the weekly average (which I use for analysis of long-term trends) has taken the index above the “magic” 20-percent line more than once.

The indicators that I use suggest that the bear market is over. Now, the question is how long the current (weak) bull market will last. There’s no guarantee that the market won’t take another dive before it reaches the January 2022 peak. There were back-to-back bear markets in 2000-2003. And after the collapse of 2007-2009, the market didn’t return to its (nominal) pre-crash peak until four years after it had hit bottom.

As the man said, the market is a random walk down Wall Street. Anything can happen, and it usually does: war, riot, natural disaster, political turmoil, unexpectedly bad or good economic news, etc., etc., etc.

Stay tuned.

Presidential Popularity: Obama, Trump, Biden

I have followed the Presidential Tracking Poll at Rasmussen Reports* since Obama was elected in 2008. The straightforward Approval Index (strongly approve minus strongly disapprove) doesn’t quite capture the way that likely voters assess a president’s performance. So I concocted an “enthusiasm ratio” — the number of likely voters who strongly approve as a percentage of the number of likely voters who venture an opinion one way or the other (thus omitting the voters who are non-committal). Here’s a comparison of the enthusiasm ratios for Obama (first term), Trump, and Biden (through 05/10/23):

You might ask how Biden caught up with Obama. I have no answer other than the fact that most voters have short memories and seem to care little about the consequences of leftist governance. It will take a major change to move the needle downward; for example, irrefutable proof of Biden’s direct involvement in the family influence-peddling business. Even better, irrefutable proof that some of the classified documents found in various places owned or controlled by Joe were used by Hunter in the conduct of said business.

Right Direction or Wrong Track

Rasmussen Reports also publishes a weekly poll in which 1,500 likely voters are asked whether the country is going in the right direction or is on the wrong track. The results, as you would expect, are volatile — reflecting the recent headlines and media spin. Government shutdowns, for example, which are actually good news, are widely viewed as bad news. Here are the comparative results for the presidencies of Obama, Trump, and Biden (through 05/08/23):

The mood of the voters polled during Trump’s term in office never reached the depths that it reached under Obama. Biden has challenged Obama’s lows but is now in Trump territory. How long will he stay there? See the discussion of presidential popularity, above.

Achilles and the Tortoise Revisited

Myth-buster at work.

My recent foray into logical fallacies reminded me of one that has irked me for many years.

According to Aristotle (restating Zeno):

In a race, the quickest runner [Achilles] can never overtake the slowest [Tortoise], since the pursuer must first reach the point whence the pursued started [i.e. the pursued has a head start], so that the slower must always hold a lead.

Ridiculous, of course.

To show what’s wrong with Aristotle’s analysis, I begin with an example that adopts his “logic”:

  • Achilles (A), a quasi-god with a tricky tendon, runs at a mortal speed of 15 miles an hour (a 4-minute miler, he).

  • Tortoise (T) plods at a speed of 1 mile an hour. (I exaggerate for simplicity of illustration.)

  • If A gives T a 15-mile lead, A reaches T’s starting point in 1 hour. T has, in that hour, moved ahead by 1 mile.

  • A covers that mile in 1/15 of an hour, in which time T has moved ahead by 1/15 of a mile.

  • A runs the 1/15 of a mile in 16 seconds, in which time T has moved ahead by another 23.47 feet.

  • And so on.

  • Therefore, A can never catch T.

What’s the catch? It’s verbal sleight-of-hand, much like the “proof” that 1 = 2 (“proof” here; fallacy explained here), or the “proof” that a boost in government spending causes GDP to rise by a “multiplier” (fallacy exposed here).

We know that A must be able to catch T, but we are trapped in a fallacious argument which seems to prove that A can’t catch T. Let’s break out of the trap.

The verbal sleight-of-hand in the Zeno/Aristotle argument is that A’s and T’s movements involve distance but not time. Velocity (distance/time) is ignored. This allows Zeno/Aristotle to imply (a nonsensical) sequence of events: T proceeds to a certain point; A reaches that point and waits for T to proceed to the next point; and so on.

In fact (if a fable may be called a fact) A catches up with T by covering a greater distance than T in the same length of time — that is, A proceeds at a greater velocity than T. Along the way, A passes points already passed by T, but A doesn’t pause at any of those points and allow T to move a bit farther ahead. A keeps on moving and catches up with T.

Going back to the example (A runs 15 miles an hour, etc.), we can determine when and where A catches T simply by describing events correctly. To begin:

  • A’s time (in hours) x A’s velocity (in miles per hour) = A’s distance (in miles).

  • T’s time x T’s velocity + T’s head start = T’s distance.

  • When A catches up with T, A’s time in motion will equal T’s time in motion and A’s distance in motion will equal T’s distance in motion + T’s head start.*

Example:

  • T has a head start of 15 miles.

  • T and A start plodding/running from their respective positions at the same time.

  • When A runs for 15/14 hours at 15 miles an hour he travels a distance of 225/14 miles (16 and 1/14 miles).

  • In that same 15/14 hours, T (plodding at generous 1 mile an hour) travels a distance of 1-1/14 mile.

  • Adding the distance T travels in 15/14 hours to T’s head start of 15 miles, we see that T is exactly 16-1/4 miles from A’s starting point after plodding for 15/14 hours.

  • In sum, A catches up with T when both have been moving for 15/14 hours, at a distance of 16-1/4 miles from A’s starting point.

Moreover, once A catches up with T, A then moves farther ahead of T with each stride because A is running at 15 miles an hour, whereas T is moving at only 1 mile and hour.

There is a variant of the Achilles-Tortoise “paradox” which says that Achilles never reaches a goal because he gets halfway there, then half of the remaining half, and so on; that is, he gets infinitesimally close to the goal but never reaches it. It would be fair to point out that Achilles is able to get halfway to the goal, and halfway might have been chosen as the goal. But let’s proceed as if the Achilles must reach the original goal.

Why can’t he get there? Zeno assumes (without realizing or admitting it) that the goal keeps receding from Achilles, even as he runs toward it. That’s the only explanation that makes sense. Otherwise, if the goal is 15 miles from Achilles and Achilles runs at 15 miles an hour, he’ll be halfway to the goal in 30 minutes, three-fourths of the way to it in 45 minutes, and at it in 1 hour.

It’s true that Achilles will reach the halfway point, the three-fourths point, etc. But it’s not true that Achilles won’t reach the goal — unless, like the mechanical rabbit in dog racing — the goal keeps moving away from Achilles.

Travel involves distance and velocity. Aristotle/Zeno ignored the latter. They were either clever or stupid. Take your pick.


* Mathematically:

tA is A’s time in motion and tT is T’s time in motion.

tA = tT = t (the duration of the race) when A catches up with T, both having started at the same time.

dA is A’s distance from his starting point and dT is T’s distance from A’s starting point, which includes T’s head start: h.

dA = dT = d (the distance A travels) when A catches up with T.

dA = (vA)(t), where vA is A’s speed

dT = h + (vT)(t), where vT is T’s speed

Substituting into dA = dT, to find the duration (time) of the race:

  1. (vA)(t) = h + (vT)(t)

  2. (vA)(t) – (vT)(t) = h

  3. t(vA – vT) = h

  4. t = h/(vA – vT)

Given t, vA, and vT, it is trivial to compute d, the distance traveled by A when he catches up with T.

How the Constitution Was Lost

The wages of amorality, immorality, and power-lust.

The Constitution of the United States was a contract between the States that ratified it. The contract became binding not only on the States but also on their creature, the national government. (I use “national” instead of “federal” because the Constitution created a new government of strictly limited but national power.)

This written Constitution — not the minions or edicts of the national government — was to be the supreme law of the land. As the supreme law. It was meant to be a bulwark against the expansion of the powers of the national government beyond those expressly granted to it by the Constitution.

There are many influential parties, justices of the Supreme Court included, who believe that the Constitution means what a majority of the Court says it means. But, as Randy Barnett puts it, the Supreme Court

does not have the power to change the written Constitution, which always remains there to be revived when there is a political and judicial will to do so. For example, after the Supreme Court gutted the Fourteenth Amendment during Reconstruction, it remained a part of the written Constitution for a future more enlightened Supreme Court to put to good use. By the same token, the current Supreme Court can still make serious mistakes about the Constitution. Because the Constitution is in writing, there is an external “there” there by which to assess its opinions.

The real meaning of the Constitution is fixed until it is amended through the process prescribed in the Constitution itself. It is not, unlike the British constitution, a do-it-yourself project. The American Constitution was designed by master architects, who meant it to be executed as it was written. It is a blueprint, not a Rohrschach test. Liberty is still possible under the American Constitution because the document is still there, waiting to be read and enforced correctly.

I don’t expect to see such a turnaround anytime soon, and probably not even in what remains of my lifetime (10 years, more or less). The reason for my pessimism is that the foundation upon which the Constitution was built has eroded badly. The (small “l”) libertarian edifice designed by the architects of the Constitution was meant to stand on a foundation of deeply ingrained Judeo-Christian morality.

Justice Clarence Thomas, speaking a few years ago at the dedication of Christ Chapel at Hillsdale College, quoted John Adams’s address to the Massachusetts militia in 1798:

“Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious People. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” Thomas underscored the critical point, one that is missing from most lamentations about the failures of the educational establishment. “The preservation of liberty,” he said in his peroration, “is not guaranteed. Without the guardrails supplied by religious conviction, popular sovereignty can devolve into mob rule, unmoored from any conception of objective truth.” [“A Genuinely Transgressive Act: On the Dedication of Christ Chapel at Hillsdale College”, The New Criterion, November 2019]

As Jennifer Roback Morse and Friedrich Hayek rightly argue (here and here), a libertarian order can be sustained only if it is built on a morality that is ingrained in social norms and inculcated by the institutions of civil society. But those norms and institutions have been undermined by a rot that began in the Progressive Era of the late 1800s and early 1900s, was nurtured in public schools and universities, was propagandized by the mass media, and has become enshrined in the edicts of the national government — a government that has accrued power which it was never meant to have. This has been especially true when the national government has held captive by the left, which seeks to replace civil society with an unattainable, dispiriting, and divisive Utopia that dispenses “equity”, “social justice”, and their like.

As traditional social norms and civil society were (and are) being shattered by the left, the destructive results — spelled out here by Malcolm Pollack — have merely invitedthe further growth of the state and the enactment of yet more destructive policies. Failure breeds more failure because the left cares not about consequences of its agenda. Power — absolute power — is its golden calf.

How should sane Americans respond to all of this? Pollack counsels what he calls a “acceleration”:

If things really are as bad as they seem … this whole rotten system may be so far gone, so diseased, and so at odds with the nature of human flourishing, that it must eventually collapse and die of its own accord. If that’s so, then it’s best, for the sake of our children and children’s children, if it happens sooner rather than later: the sooner we can plow Leviathan’s decomposing corpse into the ground, the sooner we can begin the process of organic regrowth….

Perhaps, then, it is best in the long run not to slow this process by incremental and ineffective political resistance. It may be that such an approach, by making the decay more gradual, will also make it somehow more bearable, day by day, and might turn it from an acute and intolerable affliction to a slow and chronic decline — a creeping Brazilification, a great national frog-boiling. Perhaps we would be wiser simply to let the cleansing fire of fever run its course, and burn itself out. It will be painful, and surely debilitating for a while, but then it will be over. And then, at last, we can awaken, blink our eyes, and get back on our feet.

Another term for the Big Guy might be all it takes. Four more years!!

I am less sanguine. Because of the extensive destruction of traditional morality and civil society that has already taken place, I doubt that America can be restored to a semblance of its pre-1960s character. (See “1963: The Year Zero”.) I doubt that the fourth “great awakening” in which America is presently mired can be succeeded by a fifth one that undoes the damage wrought by number four.

But if it could be, it would only be because of massive resurgence of traditional morality under the aegis of religion, especially religion in the Judeo-Christian tradition. The core of that morality is outlined in the Catholic Encyclopedia:

The precepts [of the last six of the Commandments] are meant to protect man in his natural rights against the injustice of his fellows.

  • His life is the object of the Fifth;

  • the honour of his body as well as the source of life, of the Sixth;

  • his lawful possessions, of the Seventh;

  • his good name, of the Eighth;

  • And in order to make him still more secure in the enjoyment of his rights, it is declared an offense against God to desire to wrong him, in his family rights by the Ninth;

  • and in his property rights by the Tenth.

Though I am a deist, I would gladly live in a society in which most of my fellow citizens believed in and adhered to the Ten Commandments, especially the last six of them. I reject the notion, promoted by nihilistic leftists, that religion per se breeds violence. In fact, a scholarly, non-sectarian meta-study, “Religion and its effects on crime and delinquency” (Medical Science Monitor, 2003; 9(8):SR79-82), offers good evidence that religiosity leads to good behavior:

[N]early all [reports] found that that there was a significant negative correlation between religiosity and delinquency. This was further substantiated by studies using longitudinal and operationally reliable definitions. Of the early reports which were either inconclusive or found no statistical correlation, not one utilized a multidimensional definition or any sort of reliability factor. We maintain that the cause of this difference in findings stemmed from methodological factors as well as different and perhaps flawed research strategies that were employed by early sociological and criminological researchers.The studies that we reviewed were of high research caliber and showed that the inverse relationship [between religiosity and delinquency] does in fact exist. It therefore appears that religion is both a short term and long term mitigat[o]r of delinquency.

But a society in which behavior is guided by the Ten Commandments seems to be receding into the past. As one headline puts it, “In U.S., Decline of Christianity Continues at Rapid Pace”. And the degree of religious belief probably is overstated because respondents tend to say the “right” thing, which (oddly) continues to be a profession of religious faith (in the hinterlands, at least).

Historian Niall Ferguson, a Briton, writes about the importance of religiosity in “Heaven Knows How We’ll Rekindle Our Religion, but I Believe We Must”:

I am not sure British people are necessarily afraid of religion, but they are certainly not much interested in it these days. Indeed, the decline of Christianity — not just in Britain but across Europe — stands out as one of the most remarkable phenomena of our times.

There was a time when Europe would justly refer to itself as “Christendom.” Europeans built the Continent’s loveliest edifices to accommodate their acts of worship. They quarreled bitterly over the distinction between transubstantiation and consubstantiation. As pilgrims, missionaries and conquistadors, they sailed to the four corners of the Earth, intent on converting the heathen to the true faith.

Now it is Europeans who are the heathens. . . .

The exceptionally low level of British religiosity was perhaps the most striking revelation of a recent … poll. One in five Britons claim to “attend an organized religious service regularly,” less than half the American figure. [In light of the relationship between claimed and actual church attendance, discussed above, the actual figure for Britons is probably about 10 percent: ED.] Little more than a quarter say that they pray regularly, compared with two-thirds of Americans and 95 percent of Nigerians. And barely one in 10 Britons would be willing to die for our God or our beliefs, compared with 71 percent of Americans. . . .

Chesterton feared that if Christianity declined, “superstition” would “drown all your old rationalism and skepticism.” When educated friends tell me that they have invited a shaman to investigate their new house for bad juju, I see what Chesterton meant. Yet it is not the spread of such mumbo-jumbo that concerns me as much as the moral vacuum that de-Christianization has created. Sure, sermons are sometimes dull and congregations often sing out of tune. But, if nothing else, a weekly dose of Christian doctrine helps to provide an ethical framework for life. And it is not clear where else such a thing is available in modern Europe.

… Britons have heard a great deal from Tony Blair and others about the threat posed to their “way of life” by Muslim extremists such as Muktar Said Ibrahim. But how far has their own loss of religious faith turned Britain into a soft target — not so much for the superstition Chesterton feared, but for the fanaticism of others?

Yes, what “way of life” is being threatened — and is therefore deemed worth defending — when people do not share a strong moral bond?

I cannot resist adding one more quotation in the same vein as those from Clarence Thomas and Niall Ferguson. This comes from Theodore Dalrymple (Anthony Daniels), a no-nonsense psychiatrist who, among his many intellectual accomplishments, has thoroughly skewered John Stuart Mill’s fatuous essay, On Liberty. Without further ado, here is Dalrymple on religion (“Why Religion Is Good for Us”, New Statesman, April 21, 2003):

I remember the day I stopped believing in God. I was ten years old and it was in school assembly. It was generally acknowledged that if you opened your eyes while praying, God flew out of the nearest window. That was why it was so important that everyone should shut his eyes. If I opened my eyes suddenly, I thought, I might just be quick enough to catch a glimpse of the departing deity….

Over the years, my attitude to religion has changed, without my having recovered any kind of belief in God. The best and most devoted people I have ever met were Catholic nuns. Religious belief is seldom accompanied by the inflamed egotism that is so marked and deeply unattractive a phenomenon in our post-religious society. Although the Copernican and Darwinian revolutions are said to have given man a more accurate appreciation of his true place in nature, in fact they have rendered him not so much anthropocentric as individually self-centred….

[T]he religious idea of compassion is greatly superior, both morally and practically, to the secular one. The secular person believes that compassion is due to the victim by virtue of what he has suffered; the religious person believes that compassion is due to everyone, by virtue of his humanity. For the secular person, man is born good and is made bad by his circumstances. The religious person believes man is born with original sin, and is therefore imperfectible on this earth; he can nevertheless strive for the good by obedience to God.

The secularist divides humanity into two: the victims and the victimisers. The religious person sees mankind as fundamentally one.

And why not? If this life is all that you have, why let anything stand in the way of its enjoyment? Most of us self-importantly imagine that the world and all its contrivances were made expressly for us and our convenience….

The secularist de-moralises the world, thus increasing the vulnerability of potential victims and, not coincidentally, their need for a professional apparatus of protection, which is and always will be ineffective, and is therefore fundamentally corrupt and corrupting.

If a person is not a victim pure and simple, the secularist feels he is owed no compassion. A person who is to blame for his own situation should not darken the secularist’s door again: therefore, the secularist is obliged to pretend, with all the rationalisation available to modern intellectuals, that people who get themselves into a terrible mess – for example, drug addicts – are not to blame for their situation. But this does them no good at all; in fact it is a great disservice to them.

The religious person, by contrast, is unembarrassed by the moral failings that lead people to act self-destructively because that is precisely what he knows man has been like since the expulsion from Eden. Because he knows that man is weak, and has no need to disguise his failings, either from himself or from others, he can be honest in a way that the secularist finds impossible.

Though I am not religious, I have come to the conclusion that it is impossible for us to live decently without the aid of religion. That is the ambiguity of the Enlightenment.

The weakening of the Judeo-Christian tradition in America is owed to enemies within (established religions trying in vain to be “relevant”) and to enemies without (leftists and nihilistic libertarians who seek every opportunity to denigrate religion). Thus the opponents of religiosity seized on the homosexual scandals in the Catholic Church not to attack homosexuality (which would go against the attackers’ party line) but to attack the Church, which teaches the immorality of the acts that were in fact committed by a relatively small number of priests.

Then there is the relentless depiction of Catholicism as an accomplice to Hitler’s brutality, about which an esteemed critic writes in a review of Rabbi David G. Dalin’s The Myth of Hitler’s Pope: How Pius XII Rescued Jews from the Nazis:

Despite the misleading nature of the controversy — one which Dalin questions from the outset — the first critics of the wartime papacy were not Jews. Among the worst attacks were those of leftist non-Jews, such as Carlo Falconi (author of The Silence of Pius XII), not to mention German liberal Rolf Hochhuth, whose 1963 play, The Deputy, set the tone for subsequent derogatory media portrayals of wartime Catholicism. By contrast, says Dalin, Pope Pius XII “was widely praised [during his lifetime] for having saved hundreds of thousands of Jewish lives during the Holocaust.” He provides an impressive list of Jews who testified on the pope’s behalf, including Albert Einstein, Golda Meir and Chaim Weizmann. Dalin believes that to “deny and delegitimize their collective memory and experience of the Holocaust,” as some have done, “is to engage in a subtle yet profound form of Holocaust denial.”

The most obvious source of the black legend about the papacy emanated from Communist Russia, a point noted by the author. There were others with an axe to grind. As revealed in a recent issue of Sandro Magister’s Chiesa, liberal French Catholic Emmanuel Mounier began implicating Pius XII in “racist” politics as early as 1939. Subsequent detractors have made the same charge, working (presumably) from the same bias.

While the immediate accusations against Pius XII lie at the heart of Dalin’s book, he takes his analysis a step further. The vilification of the pope can only be understood in terms of a political agenda — the “liberal culture war against tradition.” . . .

Rabbi Dalin sums it up best for all people of traditional moral and political beliefs when he urges us to recall the challenges that faced Pius XII in which the “fundamental threats to Jews came not from devoted Christians — they were the prime rescuers of Jewish lives in the Holocaust — but from anti-Catholic Nazis, atheistic Communists, and… Hitler’s mufti in Jerusalem.”

I believe that the incessant attacks on religion have helped to push people — especially impressionable adolescents and young adults — away from religion, to the detriment of liberty. It is not surprising that leftists tend to be anti-religious, for — as Dalrymple points out — they disdain the tenets of personal responsibility and liberty that are contained in the last six of the Ten Commandments.

Humans need no education in aggression and meddling, which come to us naturally. But we do need to learn to take responsibility for our actions and to leave others alone — and we need to learn those things when we are young. Such things will not be taught in public schools. They could be taught in homes, but are less likely to be taught there as Americans drift further from their religious roots.

Am I being hypocritical because I am unchurched and my children were not taken to church? Perhaps, but my religious upbringing imbued in me a strong sense of morality, which I tried — successfully, I believe — to convey to my children. But as time passes the moral lessons we older Americans learned through religion will attenuate unless those lessons are taught anew to younger generations.

Rather than join the left in attacking religion and striving to eradicate all traces of it from public discourse, those who claim to love liberty ought to accommodate themselves to it and even encourage its acceptance — for liberty’s sake.

A Lawyerly Variation of a Fallacious "Proof"

Under-thinking the problem.

A legal scholar (?) has made a claim that reminds me of the famous “proof” that 1 = 2 (“proof” here; fallacy explained here). The “proof” is invalid because it relies on the multiplication of both sides of an equation by zero. But anything multiplied by zero equals zero. It is therefore possible to “prove”, for example, that 1 = 1,000,000.

I come now to Perry Dane, who seems to have “proved” that the interpretation of laws by consulting their original public meaning is “incoherent”. This is from the abstract of his paper on the subject:

The method of original public meaning has a distinct, deadly, bit of intractable incoherence: It is, uniquely, largely useless in interpreting the meaning of contemporaneous legal enactments. If we, today, are trying to figure out the meaning, not of a provision enacted years ago, but of a text enacted today or recently, then looking to original public meaning will usually be a circular, empty, effort. After all, we – the interpreters of a contemporaneous text – are the original public.

Do you see what he’s done? He has noted, correctly, that a person today who interprets a contemporary text adds no meaning to that text because its meaning is obvious, having (presumably) been written with today’s meanings in mind. He then assumes, insidiously, that the value added by interpreting the meaning of texts is always zero, regardless of the age of the texts.

How ridiculous is that? What do you think of when you read “sidearms”? Because you are a contemporary of mine, you probably think of pistols or revolvers, generally, and pistols or revolvers that can be carried in holsters (usually at the waist), specifically. Do you think of military weapons of any kind that are worn at the side, especially the swords of officers? Well, you would if you were interpreting the meaning of “sidearm” in a text from the late 1700s.

A word that is no longer in use or which has changed meaning will not be understood properly until research reveals the meaning of the word in today’s language.

To put it mathematically:

  • The interpretive multiplier on a contemporary text is one (not zero): uninterpreted text (1) x interpretation (1) = meaning (1).

  • The interpretive multiplier on a text from long ago is greater than one (in the hands of a good interpreter): uninterpreted text (<1) x interpretation (>1) = meaning (1).

The Supreme Court Recognizes the Legality of Secession

Red States take heart.

I argue in “The Constitution: Myths and Realities” that the Constitution doesn’t forbid secession and therefore allows it. A couple of key points (though not the only ones) are these:

James Madison, known as the Father of the Constitution, characterized it as a contract, though he used an older word, namely, compact:

The [third Virginia] resolution declares, first, that “it views the powers of the federal government as resulting from the compact to which the states are parties;” in other words, that the federal powers are derived from the Constitution; and that the Constitution is a compact to which the states are parties. [Report on the Virginia Resolutions to the Virginia House of Delegates, January 1800]

What else could it be? Romantic rhetoric to the contrary notwithstanding, the Constitution is not the equivalent of the Ten Commandments or the Bible, handed directly from God or inspired by Him. The Constitution represents a practical arrangement through which the States that ratified it agreed to establish a national government with some degree of power over the States, but power that was carefully limited by enumeration.

In fact,

[t]he Constitution supplanted the Articles of Confederation and Perpetual Union, by the will of only nine of the thirteen States. Madison says this in Federalist No. 43 regarding that event:

On what principle the Confederation, which stands in the solemn form of a compact among the States, can be superseded without the unanimous consent of the parties to it? . . .

The . . . question is answered at once by recurring to the absolute necessity of the case; to the great principle of self-preservation; to the transcendent law of nature and of nature’s God, which declares that the safety and happiness of society are the objects at which all political institutions aim, and to which all such institutions must be sacrificed.

Moreover, in a letter to Alexander Rives dated January 1, 1833, Madison says that

[a] rightful secession requires the consent of the others [other States], or an abuse of the compact, absolving the seceding party from the obligations imposed by it.

An abuse of the compact most assuredly legitimates withdrawal from it, on the principle of the preservation of liberty, especially if that abuse has been persistent and shows no signs of abating. The abuse, in this instance, has been and is being committed by the national government.

Was the Constitution intended to operate forever? On the surface, the answer is “no” because it superseded an agreement of “perpetual union” without specifying that it was also an agreement of “perpetual union” — an omission that could hardly have been lost on the delegates to the convention of 1787 or the States’ ratifying conventions. There is also contemporary evidence that the Constitution wasn’t expected to be “perpetual”; for example:

At the end of the Constitutional Convention, George Washington said, “I do not expect the Constitution to last for more than 20 years.” (Source here.)

Thomas Jefferson [proposed] that the nation adopt an entirely new charter every two decades. A constitution “naturally expires at the end of 19 years,” he wrote to James Madison in 1789. “If it be enforced longer, it is an act of force, and not of right.” (Source here.)

Moreover, according today’s unanimous opinion in New York v. New Jersey, a State need not prove abuse of the constitutional compact by the national government in order to withdraw from the compact, though proof of abuse (of which there is plenty) would prove valuable in the “court of public opinion”. All that as State must do (Lincoln et al. to the contrary notwithstanding) is to withdraw (secede) from the compact.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, author of the Court’s unanimous opinion, spells it out:

The question presented is straightforward: Does the Waterfront Commission Compact allow New Jersey to unilaterally withdraw from the Compact notwithstanding New York’s opposition? The answer is yes….

Because the Compact’s text does not address whether a State may unilaterally withdraw, we look to background principles of law that would have informed the parties’ understanding when they entered the Compact. This Court has long explained that interstate compacts “are construed as contracts under the principles of contract law.”… To that end, the Court has looked to “background principles of contract law” to interpret compacts that are silent on a particular issue….

Under the default contract-law rule at the time of the Compact’s 1953 formation, as well as today, a contract (like this Compact) that contemplates “continuing performance for an indefinite time is to be interpreted as stipulating only for performance terminable at the will of either party.”… Parties to a contract that calls for ongoing and indefinite performance generally need not continue performance after the contractual relationship has soured, or when the circumstances that originally motivated the agreement’s formation have changed, for example….

In sum, background principles of contract law, reinforced here by principles of state sovereignty and the fact that the States did not intend for the Compact to operate forever, indicate that New Jersey may unilaterally withdraw from the Waterfront Commission Compact. To be clear, the contract-law rule that we apply today governs compacts (like this Compact) that are silent as to unilateral withdrawal and that exclusively call for ongoing performance on an indefinite basis.

There you have it: a precedent that any State can use to argue that it has the right to withdraw from the compact known as the Constitution, and therefore from the confederation known as the United States of America.