Something Controversial

Just a bit of bomb-throwing for a quiet evening:

1. When it comes to intelligence, people aren’t created equal.

2. People of lower intelligence tend to pursue instant gratification in favor of long-term rewards.

3. Therefore, democracy undermines liberty because:

a. Those who seek instant gratification have inordinate influence over the outcome of elections.

b. Those who seek political power can gain it by appealing to those who seek instant gratification.

c. This confluence of interests eats away the constraints on government that are the bulwark of liberty.

Bad News for Politically Correct Science

REVISED

Richard Muller, writes at MIT’s Technology Review about developments in the pseudo-science of climatology:

Global Warming Bombshell
A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics.

…In the scientific and political debate over global warming, the latest wrong piece may be the “hockey stick,” the famous plot (shown below), published by University of Massachusetts geoscientist Michael Mann and colleagues. This plot purports to show that we are now experiencing the warmest climate in a millennium, and that the earth, after remaining cool for centuries during the medieval era, suddenly began to heat up about 100 years ago–just at the time that the burning of coal and oil led to an increase in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide….

Canadian scientists Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick….

This improper normalization procedure [used in the computer program] tends to emphasize any data that do have the hockey stick shape, and to suppress all data that do not….

Some people may complain that McIntyre and McKitrick did not publish their results in a refereed journal. That is true–but not for lack of trying. Moreover, the paper was refereed–and even better, the referee reports are there for us to read. McIntyre and McKitrick’s only failure was in not convincing Nature that the paper was important enough to publish….

Then there’s the down-to-earth threat posed by “environmental tobacco smoke” (ETS). Mick Hume at London’s Times Online has this:

You’ve got to stub out that irritating fact

…Yes, of course it is true that smoking tobacco can cause cancer and terrible illnesses. But the scientific case against passive smoking is far cloudier. Just about the only thing we know for certain is that inhaling other people’s second-hand smoke can cause some irritation and the odd argument.

If you are wondering why the well-founded doubts about passive smoking are rarely aired, look at the extraordinary episode reported in The Times this week. The Royal Institution in London, a famous centre for scientific research and debate, has hired out its rooms to the Tobacco Manufacturers’ Association, for a one-day event entitled “The Science of Environmental Tobacco Smoke”. As a result, the Royal Institution finds itself under heavy fire from anti-smoking crusaders and senior medics for whom any debate about the effects of passive smoking must be stubbed out before it starts….

Not content with demanding a ban on smoking in public, it seems that the anti-ETS lobby wants a ban on talking about smoking in public too. Stub that fact out and extinguish that opinion immediately, my lad! This affair is a symptom of the spreading epidemic of tobacco intolerance — not a medical condition, but a new moral orthodoxy. It may soon be easier to smoke a joint than a cigarette on the street….

Worst of all, I cannot stand the way that passive smoking has been turned into a metaphor for that mantra of modern miserabilism: “Other people are ruining my life!” This was the spirit of morbid self-pity that Tessa Jowell, the Culture Secretary, tried to tap into, arguing that restrictions on public smoking would ensure that “nobody will be bullied into a lifestyle they do not wish to join.”…

The unhealthy assumption behind all this is that smokers are helpless addicts in need of drugs and psychotherapy to save them from themselves, while the rest of us are hapless victims in need of state protection from other people’s putrid lifestyles. Never mind about passive smoking, how about launching a war against the cancer of passive living?

The more I learn about the misuses of science by those with a leftish political agenda, the more admiration I have for Bush’s refusal to be cowed by those who claim that he’s anti-scientific. I think he’s got a good B.S. detector, and he’s not afraid to use it.

Then there’s this, from William Kininmonth at Tech Central Station:

The Chimera of Carbon Dioxide Increase

It never fails to amaze how the media gullibly makes every piece of greenhouse gas trivia into a feeding frenzy about global warming. A claim currently making the international media rounds is that for the past two years carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have been increasing at an annual rate greater than two parts per million (ppm). This is to be compared with previous rates of about 1.5 ppm, and described as a cause of concern….

The sad fact of the matter is that…[s]ome relevant numbers have been collated and interpreted for the media as something alarming. The truth is much more prosaic….

[T]here are six well-distributed sites extending from the Arctic to the Antarctic with long and nearly complete records of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration…..

[T]he increase in concentration from 2001 to 2002 exceeded 2.0 ppm at only two of the six stations. The average of all stations exceeded 2.0 ppm but only because of an unexplained large increase at the South Pole site, far from centres of industrialisation.

It is widely acknowledged, and borne out by data, that the year-to-year increase in concentration is greater during El Niño events, when tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are unusually warm. This factor explains the larger than normal increase from 2002 to 2003. However, it should also be recognised that the annual increase to 2003 was significantly less than during the major El Niño event of 1997-98, a point lost in the media hype….

For more about pseudo-science and the misuses of science, read this and follow the links.

A New Curse for the Red Sox

UPDATED, BELOW

All baseball fans and many non-fans know that the Boston Red Sox have failed to win a World Series since 1918, having appeared vainly in the Series of 1946, 1967, 1975, and 1986. That failure has been attributed to the Curse of the Bambino — Bambino being a nickname for Babe Ruth. Ruth played for Boston from 1914-19, first as an excellent pitcher and then as a slugging outfielder. The Sox won three American League pennants during Ruth’s tenure (in 1915, 1916, and 1918), and each time went on to win the World Series. But Ruth was traded to the Yankees after the 1919 season. The rest is history: post-season futility for the Red Sox and dominance for the Yankees — a mediocre team until Ruth’s arrival.

To make matters worse for Red Sox fans, a new curse has descended on the franchise. I trace the new curse to pivotal play in the 1986 Series. Here’s what happened, according to the New York Mets:

In Game Six of the World Series, the Mets complete a miracle, two-out comeback from 2 runs down in the bottom of the 10th, when Mookie Wilson dribbles a ground ball through Boston first baseman Bill Buckner‘s legs to score Ray Knight for a 6-5 victory.

The Mets then went on to win the win the seventh game, and the World Series. Now look at the Red Sox post-season record since 1986:

1988 AL Championship Series Oakland Athletics Lost 0-4

1990 AL Championship Series Oakland Athletics Lost 0-4

1995 AL Division Series Cleveland Indians Lost 0-3

1998 AL Division Series Cleveland Indians Lost 1-3

1999 AL Division Series Cleveland Indians Won 3-2
1999 AL Championship Series New York Yankees Lost 1-4

2003 AL Division Series Oakland Athletics Won 3-2
2003 AL Championship Series New York Yankees Lost 3-4

The sharp-eyed reader will have noted that the Red Sox have failed to advance to the World Series since the year of Buckner’s boot. That’s because the Red Sox are now suffering the Curse of Bill Buckner. Not only can’t the Red Sox win a World Series, they can’t even get into the World Series.

Will the Sox break the spell this year? At this point — with the Yankees leading the American League Championship Series 3 games to 1 — it would take something of a miracle. I expect the Curse of Bill Buckner to prevail.

HERE, I BEGIN TO EAT CROW (10/29/07)

The Red Sox performed the miracle and won the ALCS in 2004. They went on to win that year’s World Series, and encored in 2007.

The Yankees, in the three postseasons since 2004, have failed to advance beyond the first round of playoffs. And this year (2007) the Yankees failed to win the AL Eastern Division title for the first time since 1997.

It has now been seven years since the Yankees won a World Series (in 2000, over the New York Mets). Had the Yankees not folded in the 2004 ALCS, the story might be an entirely different one.

It is evident that the Yankees now suffer under a curse, which I hereby name “The Curse of 2004.”

Just As Effective as Peace Negotiations

From an AP story:

Despite gaining their freedom by signing pledges to renounce violence, at least seven former prisoners of the United States at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, have returned to terrorism, at times with deadly consequences.

Why waste the paper on “pledges”? We should know by now what they’re worth — especially peace pledges extracted by Jimmy (the Dupe) Carter.

War Can Be the Answer

“Israel proves there is a military solution to terrorism.” That’s the subhead on a piece at OpinionJournal by Bret Stephens (easy registration required). Some excerpts:

…[F]or most Israelis, and for many Palestinians too, the violence of the intifada–which entered its fifth year this month–seems to be in recession. Anyone who visits Jerusalem today will not see the ghost town it was in 2002, when Israel was absorbing an average of one suicide bombing a week. And anyone who visits Ramallah will find what is, by (non-Gulf state) Arab standards, a calm and economically prospering city, where the only Israeli-made ruin is the Palestinian Authority headquarters, deliberately kept that way as a monument of Arafatian agitprop.

How did things improve so dramatically, and so quickly, for Palestinians and Israelis alike? Begin by recalling Israel’s assassination, in late March, of Hamas spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. At the time, the action was all but universally condemned as reckless and counterproductive. “By granting Yassin the martyrdom he craved, the Israelis have provided a motive for new suicide attacks,” went an editorial in the normally pro-Israel Daily Telegraph of London. “More young Palestinians will fall in love with death, and more Israeli civilians will die with them.”

Yet what followed for Israel were nearly six consecutive terror-free months. This wasn’t because the Palestinian terror groups lacked for motivation to carry out attacks. It was because they lacked for means. The leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Yasser Arafat’s own al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades had to spend their time figuring out how to survive, not on planning fresh attacks. The Israeli army incarcerated terror suspects in record numbers–some 6,000 now sit in Israeli prisons–which in turn helped yield information for future arrests. Most importantly, the security fence has begun to make the Israeli heartland nearly impenetrable to Palestinian infiltrators. (August’s double suicide bombing in Beersheba happened precisely because there is still no security fence separating that town from the Palestinian city of Hebron, from where the bombers were dispatched.)

Taken together, these measures prove what a legion of diplomats, pundits and reporters have striven to deny: that there is a military solution to the conflict….

As for Israel, these past four years have also brought its share of lessons. Tactically, Israeli security forces learned, after a shaky start, how to suppress a massive terrorist-guerrilla insurgency, a remarkable accomplishment U.S. military planners would do well to study. Strategically, a majority of Israelis concluded that while peace with this generation of Palestinian leaders is impossible, separation from them is essential. And morally, Israel learned that even the most fractious democracy can stand up to a prolonged terrorist assault, and choose not to yield.

It’s a choice made easier when you know there is no alternative.

We have no alternative, either. Let us hope that Americans — who feel more secure than Israelis — can grasp the lessons that flow from Israel’s experience.

The Washington Post’s Idea of Balance

From a WashPost story about 527s:

…Named after a section of the tax code, the 527 groups are doing much of the advertising and field work traditionally left to party organizations….

Until recently, virtually all the money going to 527s went to Democratic groups. But in the last few months, Republicans have balanced the equation, collecting $1 out of every $3 raised….

So, Republican-oriented groups are collecting one-third of the money going to 527s and that’s balanced? I guess that’s as much balance as the Post can stand.

Of course, whoever’s money it is doesn’t matter to me. The real issue is freedom of speech, and 527s are a convenient way of ensuring that it’s not completely quashed when it comes to elections. But the incumbents in Washington will keep trying to find a way to quash it completely. “Money in politics” scares them because it can be used against them.

None Dare Call It Terrorism?

Why do the media — and even the military in Iraq — insist on dignifying terrorism by calling it insurgency. Latest case in point, from the Times:

We’ve Seen the Enemy and They Are … Who, Exactly?

By EDWARD WONG

Published: October 17, 2004

BAGHDAD — To hear the American commanders in Iraq tell it, William Butler Yeats could well be the poet laureate of Iraq’s insurgency. If the guerrillas were to win this war with their suicide car bombs and televised beheadings, what would come next? Nothing, the commanders say, but a widening gyre, and things falling apart, and, finally, mere anarchy being loosed in the cradle of civilization.

“This is a negative insurgency,” Brig. Gen. Erwin Lessel, deputy director of operations for the multinational forces, said in an interview inside the fortified American headquarters here, near where two powerful bombs killed five people on Thursday and left the Americans bracing for more mayhem at the start of the holy month of Ramadan. “Unlike a classical insurgency, these groups don’t offer anything.”

“They’ve got differing goals, competing ideologies,” he continued, “and don’t offer anything positive for the government.”…

That’s because they’re g**d***** terrorists — nothing more. Let’s start calling a hand-held excavating tool a spade.

This Is Disturbing News from Iraq

What I don’t know is whether it’s disturbing news about the chain of command or about the unit that refused to conduct a mission:

Unit That Refused Iraq Duty Said Released

Sat Oct 16, 7:46 PM ET

By REBECCA YONKER, Associated Press Writer

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The grandfather of an Army Reserve soldier whose platoon refused to deliver supplies in Iraq said his grandson told him Saturday that he and other soldiers had been detained by military authorities but were later released. Meanwhile, military officials said commanders reassigned five members of the unit.

Some in the platoon had told relatives they refused to deliver tainted helicopter fuel in poorly maintained vehicles by traveling a dangerous supply route without an armed escort.

The Army is investigating up to 19 members of the platoon, which is part of the 343rd Quartermaster Company based in Rock Hill, S.C. The unit delivers food, water and fuel on trucks in combat zones. A criminal inquiry was expected….

A coalition spokesman in Baghdad said “a small number of the soldiers involved chose to express their concerns in an inappropriate manner, causing a temporary breakdown in discipline.”…

On Wednesday, 19 members of the platoon did not show up for a scheduled 7 a.m. meeting in Tallil, in southeastern Iraq, to prepare for the fuel convoy’s departure a few hours later, a military statement said.

The mission was carried out by other soldiers from the 343rd, which has at least 120 soldiers, the military said….

Stay tuned. This one is going to be demagogued, left and right, regardless of the truth of the matter.

But I do wonder how the mission could be carried out be other soldiers if it was a suicide mission.

I Know What Some of You Are Thinking…

…about this story:

Court: Terror Fears Can’t Curb ‘Liberty’

Sat Oct 16, 7:06 PM ET

By C.G. WALLACE, Associated Press Writer

ATLANTA – Fear of a terrorist attack is not sufficient reason for authorities to search people at a protest, a federal appeals court has ruled, saying Sept. 11 “cannot be the day liberty perished.”

A three-judge panel of the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals (news – web sites) ruled unanimously Friday that protesters may not be required to pass through metal detectors when they gather next month for a rally against a U.S. training academy for Latin American soldiers.

Authorities began using the metal detectors at the annual School of the Americas protest after the 2001 terrorist attacks, but the court found that practice to be unconstitutional….

But it’s not nice to say it in a blog. Curb your enthusiasm.

"Red Sox Fear"?

Susan Estrich, in a pre-emptive complaint about “disenfranchisement”, says,

Red Sox fear animates the Kerry campaign, and Democratic activists across the country.

What’s that all about? Is she off her meds? Is she hallucinating?

“Red Sox fear” — what a great slogan. I can see the T-shirts.

The only thing the Red Sox have to fear is themselves.

Irrational Risk Aversion at Work

Daniel Drezner is listing heavily toward Kerry. Here’s a telling remark:

Given the foreign policy stakes in this election, I prefer a leader who has a good decision-making process, even if his foreign policy instincts are skewed in a direction I don’t like, over a leader who has a bad decision-making process, even if his foreign policy instincts are skewed in a direction I do like.

In other words, because Drezner is afraid of the small probability that he will be killed in a traffic accident he would rather walk to the corner store, and be ripped off, than get in his car and drive to Wal-Mart. When did the oyster replace the eagle as America’s symbol?

To change the metaphor, think of Kerry’s foreign policy as a zero. Kerry is a whiz at multiplication, but no matter how well he multiplies, the result is always zero. Bush, on the other hand, has a foreign policy with a value of, say, 10. According to Drezner, Bush may sometimes multiply that foreign policy by zero and get an answer of zero — but not always. Bush’s answer will usually be closer to 10 than zero.

Anyway, who says Kerry has a better decision-making process than Bush? That’s all hype. Kerry keeps asking questions because he’s searching for his principles and can’t find them. There’s more about Kerry’s vaunted decision-making style here.

Trying to Overcome Our Past

Daniel Henninger, writing at OpinionJournal, explains why “Change Is Inevitably Not Popular.” Here’s his key point:

…After three presidential debates, it is clear that George Bush is asking the American people to make[an] abrupt break with the comforts of the political past. Proposals such as Social Security privatization or individually run health-savings accounts are not being offered as just an intriguing “policy” alternative. These ideas are an historic necessity to surviving in the world economy as it exists today.

Intellectually, the case for making the leap is compelling. Emotionally, the way forward is less obvious. Most Americans have already adjusted to the disturbing realities of Iraq and of waging–and leading–a war on global terror. But it’s quite a lot to ask them in the same election to step away from 50 or more years of federally guaranteed social protection. That would have been large without Iraq and terror.

The Kerry campaign is riding on the belief that the American electorate, at the margins in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, isn’t ready to make the break. And they may be right. That to me is the meaning of the relentlessly close poll results that persist in this election. John Kerry is a fundamentally weak presidential candidate, but about half the electorate is uncertain whether it is able to sign up for all the risk and uncertainty implicit in the next Bush presidency.

That’s what 100 years of regulation and 70 years of welfare dependency will do to you. As Henninger says,

Back in the 1920s, Republicans won presidential elections with whopping 60% majorities. Calvin Coolidge presided over an economy growing at nearly 5% annually. A nation tied to business success was working. The Depression changed everything.

Very few Americans can remember the 1920s. Too many can remember the Depression and its legacy of misplaced faith in the regulatory-welfare state. It’s not clear that we can overcome that dependency. Hang on for a bumpy ride.

Due Process of Law

Jeff Jarvis asks “Would you go to jail for your weblog?” It’s a long post about the case of Judith Miller of The New York Times, who’s been jailed for contempt in her refusal to name sources in the Valerie Plame case. Jarvis wants to make Miller’s plight into a First Amendment case. It’s not that at all, as I said in my comment to Jarvis’s post:

There’s no freedom of speech or freedom of the press issue here. What’s at stake is due process of law, and that’s what Miller and her ilk are trying to subvert.

Someone — presumably a government official — may have committed a crime. The press has no right to thwart the investigation of a crime.

The Remarkable Mind of Roger Penrose

It’s been a while since I read Roger Penrose’s Shadows of the Mind, an exploration of consciousness and the possibility of replicating it in computers. Penrose is a scientist with his head screwed on right, as I am reminded by an article by Martin Gardner in The New Criterion, “Theory of everything.” There, Gardner reviews Penrose’s new book, The Road to Reality: A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe.

First, Gardner summarizes Penrose’s views on the replicability of consciousness:

…Penrose’s two best sellers, The Emperor’s New Mind and its sequel, Shadows of the Mind, were slashing attacks on the opinions of a few artificial intelligence mavens that in just a few decades computers made with wires and switches will be able to do everything a human mind can do. Advanced computers, it was said, will some day replace the human race and colonize the cosmos! Penrose disagrees. Not until we know more about laws below the level of quantum mechanics, he argues, can computers cross that mysterious threshold separating our self-awareness from the unconscious networks of computers. Maybe the threshold will never be crossed. Computers of the sort we know how to build obviously are no more aware of what they do than a typewriter knows it is typing….

Amen.

Now, on to physics:

Penrose is frank in admitting that he has “prejudices” which other physicists reject. For another instance, he is not impressed by the “many-worlds interpretation” of quantum phenomena. According to this eccentric view, every time a quantum event takes place the entire universe splits into two or more parallel universes, each containing a possible outcome of the event!

Take the notorious case known as “Schrödinger’s cat.” Imagine a cat inside a closed box along with a Geiger counter that emits random clicks. The first click triggers a device that kills the cat. Some quantum experts, notably Eugene Wigner, believed that no quantum event is real until it is observed by a conscious mind. Until someone opens the box and looks, the poor cat is a “superposition” of two quantum states, dead and alive. In the many-worlds interpretation the cat remains alive in one world, dies in the other. This proliferation of new universes, like the forking branches of a rapidly growing tree, naturally must include duplicates of you and me!

If these billions upon billions of sprouting universes are not “real” in the same way our universe is real, but only imaginary artifacts, then the many-worlds interpretation is just another way of talking about quantum events. Yes, the talk erases some of the bizarre concepts of quantum theory, but with such an enormous violation of Occam’s razor….

And that’s just a taste of the nuggets to be mined in Gardner’s review. Makes me want to buy the book.

Free-Market Healthcare

Arnold Kling writes today at Tech Central Station about “market-oriented reforms for health care.” Some key points:

…On the demand side, I propose event reimbursement in health insurance instead of procedure reimbursement. On the supply side, I propose reputation systems instead of credential-based regulation.

Event reimbursement insurance would give you a lump sum if you become injured or seriously ill. The lump sums might be in multiples of $5000. You might get $5000 for a broken wrist that requires surgery, $25,000 if you are diagnosed with stage one breast cancer, etc. The insurance contract would spell out which events result in which dollar amounts….

One advantage of event reimbursement compared with procedure reimbursement is that it gives patients and providers the incentive to control costs. It also gets insurance companies out of the business of setting fees for services. Providers set fees, and consumers decide either to accept those fees or go somewhere else for service. Relative to current practice, this is a radical concept, and it would take some learning on the part of both consumers and health care providers to adapt. We seem to be able to handle this aspect of markets in other goods and services, so I am optimistic that this would work.

However, the primary advantage of event reimbursement insurance is that it is true insurance. As I pointed out in “You Call This Health Insurance,” the traditional “health insurance” that we have today is really something quite different. The current system cannot deal with someone who develops a disease that puts him or her at risk for expensive procedures going forward. The competitive market breaks down at that point….

…Leaving aside medical insurance, for the medical field as a whole I believe that reputation systems would work better than our current system of credential-based regulation.

A friend who is an optometrist puts a lot of time into lobbying the state legislature. That is because the boundaries between what he can do relative to an optician or an ophthalmologist are determined by state laws. One group is constantly trying to use the legislative process to take territory away from the others.

These sorts of regulatory boundaries impose tremendous costs on consumers, without our realizing it. Like fish unaware that they are swimming in water, most of us go through life without ever thinking about the pervasive, murky regulatory swamp through which we swim when we seek medical care.

In most industries, government does not get involved in defining work rules. If a company decides to have a financial analyst do computer programming or a computer programmer do financial analysis, that is none of the government’s business. In the medical industry, however, the government does dictate such work rules. This creates all sorts of supply bottlenecks. For example, if there is an increase in the number of patients needing help with starting exercise programs to recover from orthopedic injuries, the result is a shortage of “physical therapists.” Any other market would adapt by coming up with a close substitute. In medicine, that is not allowed.

Another example is the rule that only a physician may write prescriptions. This protects the income of physicians, but by the same token it prevents lower-cost alternative health delivery systems from emerging….

Although medical work rules serve primarily to carve out economic rents for health care providers, they are not sold that way to the public. Instead, these regulations ride in under the banner of “consumer protection.”

The free market principle is that as consumers we should protect ourselves. The key to protecting ourselves in a deregulated environment for medical care would be reputation systems. As Howard Rheingold discusses in his book Smart Mobs, the concept of reputation systems receives increasing attention in our information-rich, networked society.

There are reputation systems all around us. Consumer Reports ratings are a reputation system. eBay uses a reputation system to keep buyers and sellers honest. Mortgage lenders and other suppliers of consumer credit rely on a reputation system known as credit scoring.

In medicine, we already use reputation systems. The diploma on the doctor’s wall is one. The referral that is made by friends or other doctors is another. All sorts of private systems are springing up to evaluate data on hospitals, doctors, and so on.

Reputation systems could provide us with an alternative to the strict, credential-driven structure that we have today. Someone could earn a reputation as capable of training you to do certain exercises without earning a license as a physical therapist. Someone could earn a reputation as a reliable prescriber for certain types of medications in certain types of situations without getting a full-fledged MD. In fact, the drug industry could be deregulated, with reputation systems for medicines replacing “FDA approval.”

If you took away the centrally-planned regulatory system for medical care, my conjecture is that reputation systems would emerge as a more efficient Hayekian market response. In some cases, such as medicines, I would want to see a gradual deregulatory process, rather than lose consumer protection completely and suddenly.

Some of the expense of operating reputations systems could be offset by lower costs elsewhere. If bad doctors (and incompetent technicians as well) were dealt with by reputation systems, malpractice lawsuits would be needed much less, if at all.

If we took away the regulatory swamp, the changes would be dramatic. You could have your gall bladder surgery done by a dental assistant. That would not be a good idea, but it would be your responsibility as a consumer to make that decision. Your protection against making bad decisions would be common sense, information, and effective reputation systems.

My guess is that a lot of business process re-engineering would take place spontaneously if the regulatory swamp were replaced by consumer choice and reputation systems. I think that this is the best hope for allowing medical care to become as efficient as possible by taking advantage of the best technologies and practices our economy has to offer….

For more about the deregulation of healthcare, among other things, see my series “Fear of the Free Market” (here, here, and here).

An Almost-Correct Diagnosis

Rice at Southern Appeal says:

…If Bush loses, the debates will be a significant reason why. We had 4 liberal moderators. While moderators tend to have only a small impact on the debate, they do decide which topics are discussed. They frame the issues. Repeatedly, Iraq was framed as a failure by the moderators.

If Bush loses it will because he debated Kerry, period. I know that it’s unseemly for a sitting president to refuse to participate in the quadrennial test of cramming and makeup. But the debates do nothing but show how well a candidate can perform in the artificial setting of live TV. The debates have nothing to do with governance and everything to do with performance (in the showbiz sense).

Bush should have refused to participate in the debates, on the ground that he has more pressing things to do, such as prosecute a war. His refusal might have cost him a few points in the polls, but that’s nothing compared with the damage he has suffered by giving Kerry an opportunity to feign gravitas.

Is the Postal Service Next?

FuturePundit asks, “Can We Finally Retire The Space Shuttle?

It is my hope that the success of [Burt Rutan’s] SpaceShipOne and the coming flights of SpaceShipTwo and other private spacecraft designs will allow the American public to get over their emotional attachment to the Space Shuttle.

Now, if Congress would only allow UPS, FedEx, and their imitators to deliver the mail. For one thing, I’ll bet that they would be willing and able to do the following: Let me set up an online account where I can simply check off the vendors whose catalogs I don’t want to receive. I’d gladly pay something not to lug those catalogs up the driveway, then back down the driveway, in the recycling bin.

Nader, the Bogeyman

Ryan Lizza of The New Republic has posted a piece about Nader’s influence on the outcome of the election. Key passages:

…Despite the fact that he is registering barely 1 percent in national polls, Nader is indeed perfectly positioned to cost Kerry the election. Consider Kerry’s current road to 270 electoral votes. The number of true toss-up states has dwindled to eleven: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. Nader is on the ballot in all of these states but Pennsylvania and Ohio, where his access is still the subject of litigation. Each of these states is close enough that Nader could make the difference, and the damage he could do to Kerry becomes more obvious when one looks at the combination of states Kerry is likely to need for victory. Assuming Bush wins Florida and Kerry wins Pennsylvania, Kerry must then win Ohio and some combination of three to five of the remaining eight small toss-up states. These eight states have two things in common: in each, the race is almost a dead heat, and, in each, Nader is polling between one and four points. In other words, Nader is doing best in the most closely contested states….

In his pitch to students in San Francisco and Berkeley, Nader talks about the importance of organizing and getting involved in the political process. He notes that politicians only respond when people are mobilized. “It’s very important for the rumble of the people to come back,” he says. It is a bizarre statement in the context of liberal politics in 2004. On the left, there probably has not been as much energy and organization since the nuclear freeze movement of the 1980s. Bush has helped create the foundation for an entire New Left counter-establishment. From Moveon.org to the Howard Dean campaign to the liberal blogosphere to Air America radio to new think tanks sprouting up around Washington, D.C., an entire new network of exactly the kind of activists that Nader has long praised is suddenly being born. Their singular goal is to defeat Bush. At 70, Nader’s last great act as a public citizen might be to scuttle all their work. Not even the LaRouchies are that irresponsible.

Hey, a guy’s gotta do what a guy’s gotta do. If some lefties prefer Nader to Kerry, what are we supposed to do, shoot them in the back as they stand in a polling booth?

Ain’t democracy great? So it takes a bite out of liberty every once in a while, but sometimes liberty bites back.

Advice for the "Disenfranchised"

Some voters, particularly voters in States where a Kerry win is certain, complain that the Electoral College disenfranchises them. They say that their votes don’t count because the election isn’t decided by the national popular vote. I agree with you — 100 percent. So, here’s what you can do about it:

Let’s say you’re a Democrat in New York (or California or Massachusetts, etc). You know that your vote won’t make a difference because Kerry’s going to take your State’s electoral votes, no matter what. So don’t vote. And pass the word to several million other “disenfranchised” Democrats in your State. Suddenly, your State’s Republicans will feel enfranchised, for a change.

In the "So What?" Department

Wizbang‘s Kevin Aylward laments the distribution of income from CD sales:

This breakdown of the cost of a typical major-label release by the independent market-research firm Almighty Institute of Music Retail shows where the money goes for a new album with a list price of $15.99.

$0.17 Musicians’ unions

$0.80 Packaging/manufacturing

$0.82 Publishing royalties

$0.80 Retail profit

$0.90 Distribution

$1.60 Artists’ royalties

$1.70 Label profit

$2.40 Marketing/promotion

$2.91 Label overhead

$3.89 Retail overhead

That’s a pretty remarkable breakdown. Label[s] get $7.01per CD and retailers get $4.69 for a combined percentage of 73% of the price of each CD. Royalties, artists, and manufacturing costs combined total only $4.29.

Is someone forcing the artists to record at gunpoint? Why don’t we just take half of everyone else’s share and give it to the artists? Mmmm…I wonder what would happen to the marketing and sales of CDs then.

Here’s a better way to look at it, Kevin. The artists’ royalties from each CD are split among a small number of people. All the other entities in the production-distribution chain are corporations who have to cover the cost of wages, benefits, rent, utilities, supplies, lawyers, etc., etc. It’s fair to say that artists, per capita, do better than everyone else in the chain. But, as I asked above, is someone forcing the artists to record at gunpoint? If not, what they make is no one else’s business.

I’m surprised that a blogger who seems otherwise to have a firm grasp of conservative-libertarian principles would presume to second-guess the outcome of free-market transactions.