Trump Defies Gravity

UPDATED 10/10/18

Trump’s approval ratings are on the rise again. They are will above the depths reached in during the frenzied months of the Trump-Russia collusion scandal (which is really an Obama-DoJ-FBI collusion scandal), and despite the successive waves of anti-Trump hysteria that emanate from the internet-media-academic complex. (See related reading at the end of this post.)

Derived from Rasmussen Reports approval ratings for Trump.

Lest you believe that Trump’s numbers are weak, consider this comparison with Obama’s numbers:

Derived from Rasmussen Reports approval ratings for Obama and Trump.

In this age of polarization, it’s hard for any president to routinely attain high marks:

Source: Same as Figure 2.

But Trump’s recent bump is a good sign. (See the discussion of figure 5, below.)

Ratios of the ratios in Figure 2 yield enthusiasm ratios: the strength of strong approval ratings relative to overall approval ratings:

Source: Same as Figure 2.

Since the spike associated with the Singapore summit, Trump”s enthusiasm ratio has settled into a range that is comfortably higher than Obama’s.

There is a different poll that is more revealing of Trump’s popularity. Every week since the first inauguration of Obama, Rasmussen Reports has asked 2,500 likely voters whether they see the country as going in the “right direction” or being on the “wrong track”. The following graph (also in the sidebar) shows the ratios of “right direction”/”wrong track” for Trump and Obama:

Source: Rasmussen Reports, “Right Direction or Wrong Track“.

The ratio for Trump, after a quick honeymoon start, fell into the same range as Obama’s. But it jumped with the passage of the tax cut in December 2017. It has risen since then, despite the faux scandals concocted by the leftist media and their concerted attack on Trump.

Figure 5 suggests that the squishy center of the electorate is lining up behind Trump, despite the incessant flow of negative “reporting” about him and his policies. His base is with him all the way.

Trump’s coattails will be decisive in November. As of now, I expect the GOP to hold the House and the Senate.

Related reading:

Alex Castellanos, “How Trump Has Managed to Defy Gravity“, RealClearPolitics, July 31, 2018

Selwyn Duke, “Media Collusion: 100-Plus Papers Agree to Simultaneously Run Anti-Trump Editorials“, The New American, August 14, 2018

Dennis Prager, “The Greatest Hysteria in American History“, RealClearPolitics, July 24, 2018

Ned Ryun, “None Dared Call It Treason … When It Was a Democrat“, American Greatness, July 24, 2018