2020 Vision

Trump confounded most expectations in 2016 by taking Florida, Iowa, and Ohio — all Blue since 2004 — and nudging two long-time Blue States — Michigan and Pennsylvania — into the Red column.

What about 2020? A lot of water will flow under the bridge and over the dam in the next two years, but at the moment I see it this way:

  • Trump holds Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
  • He adds Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
  • Of the usually Red States that are sliding toward the Blue column — Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas — he loses only Arizona.

Bottom line, 318 electoral votes, and possibly even a majority of the fictitious “national” popular vote.

5 thoughts on “2020 Vision

  1. Trump might hold Texas in 2020. Cruz’s narrow escape from Beto-mania was due in large part to Cruz’s unpopularity relative to other GOP statewide office-holders. But if Trump holds Texas in 2020, it will probably be by a narrow margin. Then the tide will finally turn. Hispanics in Texas aren’t hard-line Democrat voters, but they generally favor Democrats by 60-40. So as the Hispanic population grows relative to the white population — a sure thing — Texas will turn Blue.


  2. No doubt, once Florida and Texas are blue, no republican will ever be elected president. The Democrats’ goal has long been to turn the U.S. into a one party, Chicago machine-style state, like the PRI party in Mexico. Antonio Gramsci predicted that after his “Long March” had succeeded in overtaking the institutions, there would be an interregnum—a dying last gasp for the old America—just before the revolution was complete and irreversible.

    Trump’s election was that interregnum.

    Why the GOP didn’t see this coming 25 or 30 yrears ago is the question (assuming that they didn’t see this coming).

    Pat Buchanan was trying to warn about this stuff back in the ‘90s, but the country club Republicans shut him down.


  3. “They assumed, wrongly, that their opponents were honorable people who played by the rules of the game.”

    That hits the nail on the proverbial head. This really played out at the Kavanaugh hearings when Lindsey Graham unloaded on the Democrat committee members for their abusive treatment of Brett Kavanaugh. (It seems as if Graham has rediscovered his spine since the passing of the Arizona Senator.)

    The Democrats incendiary tactics tend to overwhelm Republican timidity.


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