Trump confounded most expectations in 2016 by taking Florida, Iowa, and Ohio — all Blue since 2004 — and nudging two long-time Blue States — Michigan and Pennsylvania — into the Red column.
What about 2020? A lot of water will flow under the bridge and over the dam in the next two years, but at the moment I see it this way:
- Trump holds Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
- He adds Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
- Of the usually Red States that are sliding toward the Blue column — Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas — he loses only Arizona.
Bottom line, 318 electoral votes, and possibly even a majority of the fictitious “national” popular vote.