I made a bold prediction in “2020 Vision“:
- Trump holds Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
- He adds Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
- Of the usually Red States that are sliding toward the Blue column — Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas — he loses only Arizona.
Bottom line, 318 electoral votes, and possibly even a majority of the fictitious “national” popular vote.
I will now temper that prediction by pointing out (unnecessarily) that the GOP candidate (probably Trump) will have a higher hill to climb than the Democrat candidate.
Here’s how the 2020 electoral vote looks to me, at the moment: solid Democrat, 235; solid Republican, 132; in play, 171. I am still confident that Trump (or his successor) can win in 2020 — the “Blue Wall” is a myth. But victory won’t come as easily as my earlier post implied.
The States in play in 2020 (and the number of electoral votes for each) are:
New Hampshire (4)
Visually (with blue for Republican, red for Democrat, and purple for in play):
Adapted from the electoral map for 2016 at Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Leip uses blue for Republican and red for Democrat.