The Meaning of the War in Ukraine

It points to a new and more effective US/NATO strategy toward Russia.

What is Putin’s strategic objective for Russia? I believe it is a “greater Russia” which is strong enough economically and militarily to (a) leverage its natural resources to its economic advantage and (b) play hardball successfully when NATO or its key members try to thwart Putin’s strategic aims. “Greater Russia” must therefore include key regions of Ukraine — or perhaps Ukraine entirely — because of Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and its natural resources. One way to think of the invasion of Ukraine is as a complement to Russia’s de facto control of Crimea, which is also consistent with the “greater Russia” objective.

In view of that, an invasion of Ukraine was almost inevitable. The NATO-Ukraine flirtation made it a certainty. Putin judged — correctly (thus far) — that neither NATO as a whole or the US (perhaps in concert with some other members of NATO) would intervene directly with combat forces. His nuke-rattling is probably an unnecessary bit of breast-beating because US/NATO wouldn’t risk direct combat that might lead to the use of nukes. Putin will resort to tactical nukes (though probably in a limited way) only if (a) he is in danger of failing to secure at least key portions of Ukraine and (b) that failure is clearly (to him) the result of US/NATO assistance to Ukraine (which includes but isn’t limited to intelligence sharing).

If Putin fails, it may well be because Russia’s armed forces aren’t up to the task. But would Putin come to that assessment, or would he blame the US/NATO? I suspect that he would do the latter.

In viw of that, US/NATO must do two things. First, continue to lambaste Putin publicly so that his role as the “bad guy” is (mostly) unquestioned in the West. Second, continue to help Ukraine (to do otherwise would be bad p.r. and a overt sign of weakness). But US/NATO should take care to avoid actions that might cause Putin to conclude that he failed because of US/NATO interference. I don’t lightly suggest tactical caution, but a temporary loss is better than a permanent one — a devasting nuclear exchange between US/NATO and Russia. (I am reminded here of Churchill’s decision not to warn the citizens of Coventry about a massive air raid because doing so probably would have compromised the Ultra program and resulted in a far greater loss of Allied lives in the course of World War II, if not defeat for the Allies.)

By the same token, it is imperative that the US/NATO grow some backbone and let Putin know that what he has in mind for “greater Russia” is matched by NATO’s commitment to the security of its member nations. Letting Putin know means policy declarations to that effect, firm commitments to building up NATO’s military strength (Europe still needs to pull more weight), and the “natural” expansion of NATO to include Finland and Sweden. (Does Putin really want to go to war over the inclusion in NATO of Sweden and Finland? I doubt it. Their admission to NATO would be a clear signal to Putin that he might have a free hand in “greater Russia”, but that’s it.)

In addition to that, US/NATO must convince Putin (and Xi and the ayatollahs) that it is economically prepared for a long cold war. Which means that Western leaders must abandon their futile and fatuous pursuit of “green” energy and drill for oil, mine coal, and build nuclear power plants. That is to say, they should do what President Trump was doing, namely, making America energy-independent. The hard-core climate alarmists would hate a policy shirt toward economic sanity, but it would win the hearts and minds of the vast majority of US/NATO citizens who are bearing the economic burden of high energy prices that their own “leaders” thrust upon them.

In sum, though it pains me to admit it, I’m suggesting something like a new Iron Curtain, where the curtain is designed and built by the West. The new status quo would resemble that of the 1950s and 1960s, when the US/NATO declined to interfere in matters behind the original Iron Curtain (e.g., the suppression of the 1956 uprising in Hungary and the “Prague Spring” of 1968). But the new Iron Curtain would not only block Russian moves to the west but also to the south and southeast (that is moves that might compromise US/NATO access to oil from sources other than Iran).

The new Iron Curtain would be a semipermeable membrane, allowing trade with Russia where it is mutually beneficial. And, with a sufficient show of conventional and nuclear strength by US/NATO, the new status quo wouldn’t engender constant dread about Russia’s ability to disrupt the affairs of US/NATO. Deterred is deterred.

Leftism in America

“Wokeness” with an iron fist.

Throughout this essay I use “left” and its cognates rather than “progressive” or “liberal” (in the modern, authoritarian sense). The latter terms exemplify doublespeak, an indispensable tool of leftism, inasmuch as “progressives” often endorse regressive economic and social policies, and “liberals” embrace a sanitized version of fascism.

I also use “left” and “woke” and their cognates interchangeably. That’s because the left has largely adopted “wokeism” and “wokesters” tend to be leftists. (There are exceptions of course — some of them notable (e.g., JK Rowling and Ruy Teixeira) — but the exceptions underscore the rule.)

There is a bibliography at the end of this post. I no longer add to it, but is ample enough to be of good use to anyone who wants to learn more about leftism and how it has despoiled America.


Imagine all the people sharing all the world…. — John Lennon

Make peace or I’ll kill you. — M.D. Haykin

Conservatives are the new liberals, and liberals the new fascists. — Bill Vallicella (Maverick Philosopher)


INTRODUCTION

I will try to paint a comprehensive picture of leftism, as a guide to those readers who are open to the truth behind the “compassionate” facade of leftism. Specifically, I will address the left’s agenda, the assumptions and attitudes underlying it, the left’s strategic and tactical methods, the psychological underpinnings of leftism, the heavy economic and social costs of realizing the left’s agenda, and a way to avert a complete victory by leftism in America.

Leftism is an ideology, that is, a commitment to particular outcomes of political processes. I have discussed the particular outcomes of leftism at length in this post.

Leftism may be understood better by contrasting it with a non-ideological “ism”: conservatism, which is properly understood as a disposition. (There are many people who claim to be conservative, but who are not. I will address them at various places in this essay.)

Michael Oakeshott describes conservatism as a disposition in Rationalism in Politics and Other Essays. I classify conservatism — of the true, traditional kind — as a kind of libertarianism (right-minarchism). But the classification is meant only to locate the conservative attitude toward the state in relation to other attitudes. I don’t mean to imply that conservatism of the kind described by Oakeshott is an ideology or creed with tokens of membership.

Leftism, by contrast, is an ideology: a collection of particular (if often abstract and shifting) objectives toward which political outcomes should be directed, nay, coerced. Leftists are abetted in their efforts by enablers of various kinds, who may not be leftists by disposition but who lend support (intellectual and material) and votes to the leftist cause because of the allure of its proclaimed goals or promised benefits.

There are, spread throughout this essay, many aperçus about leftism. This one comes closest to a summation of the left’s  motivations and aims:

The most obvious assumption [of leftism] is that perceived “wrongs” and “problems” — perceived by leftists, that is — must be “righted” and “solved” by state action.

That statement warrants elaboration. Leftism isn’t just sympathy for the poor and oppressed or fear for the fate of mankind. If it were, an overwhelming majority of human beings would be leftists. Leftism is the conjoining of those attitudes and the deluded belief that the best (and sometimes only) vehicle for redressing “wrongs” and remedying “problems” is the use of state power to command the necessary resources and coerce the necessary actions.

The presumption of governmental omniscience and omnipotence has many anti-libertarian implications. Here are some leading examples:

  • Income and wealth belong to the state.

  • The property of individuals and businesses is the state’s to control.

  • Individuals and businesses do not have freedom of association.

  • Religion has no place in the governance of the populace and must not be allowed to influence or interfere with that governance.

  • The state decides basic social questions, such as (but far from limited to) the nature of marriage and gender.

  • The state decides religious and scientific matters, such as (but far from limited to) the legality of teaching alternatives to neo-Darwinianism and the correctness of the hypothesis of carbon-dioxide-driven “climate change”.

  • All persons are born equally meritorious in all respects, regardless of their (apparent) intellectual and physical endowments (“nurture” 100%, “nature” 0%), and must be accorded the same opportunities regardless of their endowments.

  • Exceptions may be made for persons who govern, “entertain”, play professional sports, deliver “news” and opinions, profess and administer at expensive universities, or are otherwise deemed worthy of special treatment — because some people are “more equal” than others. But at every opportunity, the exceptions will be limited to those persons who confess to the omniscience and omnipotence of the state.

  • Despite universal equality of merit, the state may authorize the killing of some otherwise blameless persons (e.g., children in the womb, the elderly) if they are deemed to be “unequal” (or simply an inconvenience to others).

  • Despite universal equality of merit, some persons commit acts that are called crimes because “society” denies them a “fair share” of economic rewards and social recognition.

  • Dissent from the foregoing positions (and others not listed here) is punishable by ostracism, loss of position, and in some cases (there should be more) civil and criminal penalties.

Most leftists won’t admit to such absolutism and barbarism, and will try to find congenial ways of characterizing their implicit views. But leftism is what it is, and shouldn’t be sugar-coated.

AGENDA

Leftists have an agenda, though it varies over time, and sometimes contradicts an earlier position on a particular issue. The first thing that is wrong with leftism is the presence of an agenda. Leftism isn’t the only ideology with an agenda, so it’s not unique in possessing that undesirable dimension. But I am focusing here on leftism, so I’ll leave it at that.

Why is the possession of an agenda a “bad thing”? Individual persons have agendas, that is, specific goals and preferences regarding the relative desirability of those goals. But, in the conservative disposition, those individual agendas are the basis of social interactions (which include economic ones) through which people find a modus vivendi in voluntary, peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation — liberty, in other words. The state becomes involved only as a referee of last resort and enforcer of socially evolved, civilizing norms (e.g., prohibitions of murder, theft, fraud, etc.).

The possession and advancement of an agenda by a sizable group of persons is meant to suppress the modus vivendi that would occur naturally. The agenda, in other words, is meant to substitute the preferences of a segment of a society or polity for the host of individual preferences that can would otherwise be reconciled through social (and economic) intercourse.

It should go without saying that this substitution is necessarily be carried out by the use of force, or the threat of it. And the state, in its various manifestations, provides the force.

Leftism, in short, is an ideology of bullies. It’s not the only one, but it’s the leading one these days. The right — by which I mean the statist right, not political conservatism of the Burkean variety — is just the left with a somewhat different agenda.

Leftism began in earnest, as a mass movement, during the French Revolution, with its infamous Committee of Public Safety (the Red Guards of the day). The Committee conducted the Reign of Terror against “enemies” of the Revolution, that is, anyone who questioned or challenged the actions of the leading revolutionaries. Such has been the standard practice of leftist movements and regimes unto the present.

The American left’s use of coercion and violence differs in degree but not in kind from the practices of leftist dictators from Robespierre to Xi Jinping. The American left’s current methods include aggressive political correctness, the suppression of unwelcome views on college campuses (of all places) and in the media (“social” and otherwise), and the use of state power to punish untoward thoughts (e.g., thought-crime hate-crime laws, penalties for expressing opposition to same-sex “marriage”, and the criminalization of parents who criticize the teaching of critical race theory).

American leftism isn’t monolithic. It’s a coalition of interest groups, united by overlapping aims and a worldview that was articulated by Robespierre (discussed below). The overlapping aims of the groups range from the venerable one of claiming a larger share of economic output to newer ones, such as exalted status for newly discovered “victims” (e.g., persons who wish, for one reason or another, to deny that their sex is the one that is emblazoned on their genes.) These various aims are served best when the left succeeds in seizing control of state power; most of the aims wouldn’t advance far in a world of peaceful, voluntary coexistence.

The left’s essential confusion about aims is evidenced not only in shifting positions on particular issues (e.g., for Prohibition, then against it) but also in the incongruous juxtaposition of puritanism and libertinism. Thus it is good for “us” to eschew economic growth in order to “save the planet”, and it is good for “the children” to regulate smoking and tax it heavily. But at the same time the left champions the “right” to engage in behaviors long condemned as unhealthy and immoral, such as homosexuality, transvestitism, and abortion. These shifts and contradictions lend support to my view (discussed later) that one of the root causes of leftism is adolescent rebellion: If the “grown ups” think it’s bad, it’s good — and vice versa.

The rationale for the left’s agenda du jour is found in the phrase made famous by Robespierre during the French Revolution: liberty, equality, and fraternity. These words have special meanings in the left’s usage:

  • liberty — to do whatever one feels like doing, and to suppress whatever one doesn’t like

  • equality — which others will be forced to pay for (in property rights, money, jobs, promotions, etc.) and bow to (or else)

  • fraternity — but only with the like-minded of the moment.

It’s true that most contemporary leftists don’t go around saying “liberty, equality, and fraternity”, but the phrase captures the implicit rationale for the left’s agenda. (A current watchword is “democracy”, which in the left’s lexicon means the imposition of its agenda regardless of how it fares with voters and their elected representatives.) Consider, for example, these excerpts of a Wikipedia article (since revised, of course) about left-wing politics (my comments in bold):

Leftist economic beliefs range from Keynesian economics and the welfare state through industrial democracy and the social market to nationalization of the economy and central planning [1. “equality” through control]…. During the industrial revolution, leftists supported trade unions [2. “equality” and “fraternity” through property theft]. At the beginning of the 20th century, many leftists advocated strong government intervention in the economy [3. see #1]. Leftists continue to criticize what they perceive as the exploitative nature of globalization [4. because willing workers who are making more than before are being “exploited” and therefore denied some kind of “liberty”]….

The global justice movement, also known as the anti-globalization movement or alter-globalization movement, protests against corporate economic globalization, due to its negative consequences for the poor, workers, the environment, and small businesses [5. see #4 re “poor, workers, … and small businesses”, and see below re environment]….

From the 1970s onwards, environmentalism became an increasing concern of the left, with social movements and some unions campaigning over environmental issues [6. revenge against “fat-cat capitalists” for being “more equal” than others]…. Some segments of the socialist and Marxist left consciously merged environmentalism and anti-capitalism into an eco-socialist ideology [7. see #6, and consider that leftists put job protection about consumer interests, except where “consumer protection” is a facade for business-bashing, all for the sake of “equality”]…. Environmental degradation can be seen as a class or equity issue, as environmental destruction disproportionately affects poorer communities and countries [8. see #6 and #7]….

In the 21st Century, questions about the environment have become increasingly politicized, with the Left generally accepting the findings of environmental scientists about global warming [9. more of the same]….

The Marxist social class theory of proletarian internationalism asserts that members of the working class should act in solidarity with working people in other countries in pursuit of a common class interest, rather than focusing on their own countries. Proletarian internationalism is summed up in the slogan, “Workers of all countries, unite!”, the last line of The Communist Manifesto [10. more faux egalitarianism, which American workers resist because of globalism and illegal immigration]….

The original French left-wing was anti-clerical, opposing the influence of the Roman Catholic Church and supporting the separation of church and state. Karl Marx asserted that “Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, and the soul of soulless conditions. It is the opium of the people.” [11. the “intellectual” left still embraces this aspect of Marxism; the left’s “liberty” excludes religious liberty]…

Religious beliefs, however, have also been associated with some left-wing movements, such as the civil rights movement and the anti-capital punishment movement. Early socialist thinkers such as Robert Owen, Charles Fourier, and the Comte de Saint-Simon based their theories of socialism upon Christian principles [12. cleverly conflating voluntary charity and “charity” by governmental coercion, in the name of “equality”]…. Other common leftist concerns such as pacifism, social justice, racial equality, human rights, and the rejection of excessive wealth can be found in the Bible [13. more coercive governmental policies for the sake of “liberty” and “equality”]….

Social progressivism is another common feature of modern leftism, particularly in the United States, where social progressives played an important [14. but not exclusive] role in the abolition of slavery, women’s suffrage, civil rights, and multiculturalism [15. which seems to be an excuse for tolerating practices and beliefs that aren’t tolerated if they observed by white Americans of European descent, for the sake of “equality” and “fraternity”]. Progressives have both advocated prohibition legislation and worked towards its repeal [16. a leading example of the opportunism of “progressivism”, which also embraces abortion as a means of controlling the population of “dark” people, in the spirit of “fraternity”]. Current positions associated with social progressivism in the West include opposition to the death penalty and the War on Drugs, [17. leftism and personal responsibility are antithetical, thus income redistribution, etc., for the sake of “liberty” and “equality”] and support for legal recognition of same-sex marriage, … distribution of contraceptives, public funding of embryonic stem-cell research, and the right of women to choose abortion [18. that have more than a whiff of adolescent rebellion about them, and which conflate license with liberty, but are justified in the name of “liberty”].

ASSUMPTIONS AND ATTITUDES

Leftism is built on several assumptions and attitudes. They aren’t mutually exclusive, nor are they consciously adopted. In fact, leftists would (nominally) reject most of them.

The most obvious assumption is that perceived “wrongs” and “problems” — perceived by leftists, that is — must be “righted” and “solved” by state action. This assumption has psychological roots, to which I’ll come, and it draws on some of the following assumptions and attitudes.

A zero-sum perspective leads to the belief that some persons’ gains must mean losses for others. This perspective is alluded to when leftists talk about “shares” of income, as if there were a national income floating in the sky, shares of which are meted out by mysterious and sinister forces in cahoots with those who earn the highest incomes — “the 1%” or “the 0.1%”. Perish the thought that incomes — even incomes earned by so-called crony capitalists (who are often leftists) — reflect the value of the products and services from which those incomes are derived. Perish that the thought that Bill Gates, to take but one example, is super-rich because he founded a company that provides operating systems and software that are used by billions of people. Perish the thought that Bill Gates didn’t become super-rich by stealing money from the poor (how would that work?), and that his company actually made people better off by employing thousands of people and providing tools that enable untold millions of persons to earn more than they would earn without such tools. But all of that is lost on the left, whose zero-sum mentality propels state actions (income redistribution: progressive tax rates, tax credits for low-income persons, food stamps, etc) that necessarily diminish the incentive to engage in job- and income-creating entrepreneurship exemplified by Bill Gates and emulated (on a much smaller scale) by millions of aspiring business owners.

Leftists don’t like markets, especially when markets yield results that leftists dislike. When that happens, markets “fail”, according to leftists. In reality, markets fail only when they yield results that are dictated by the state, that is, results other than those which would obtain in the absence of state action. Leftists lead the charge for dictated results. Regulation, which leftists love because it “protects” people from “rapacious” business interests, benefits the (often leftist) crony capitalists whom leftists love to hate. Almost every agency of every government in the United States is in the business of devising or applying regulations of one kind or another. Leftists abhor some of those regulations (e.g., laws against abortion and marijuana use), and will go to great lengths to overturn them. But those are the exceptions that underscore the rule.

Another thing that leftists don’t like about markets is that they (are thought to) create “winners” and “losers” because they invite competition. In fact, markets mostly create winners because they enable willing buyers and sellers to engage in exchanges that make both parties better off. If competition is such a bad thing, it’s a wonder that there are any rich leftists, inasmuch as most of them became rich by selling a talent, a service, or a product — and successfully competing against other sellers of the same or similar talent, service, or product.

And a lot of those rich leftists are driven by the so-called profit motive. “Profit” is a dirty word on the left. But profit is nothing more than a signal to prospective sellers of services and products that there’s an opportunity to make some money. And if those prospective sellers heed the signal, not only will they be better off, but they’ll make consumers better off by offering them more choices, lower prices, and higher quality products and services.

But “little people” are hurt by competition? How so? Competition helps to ensure that “little people” get value for their money. It has made millions of different products and services affordable by “little people”. (Leftists’ grandparents and great-grandparents would envy the choices now available to consumers.) It has provided jobs for “little people”, which is why they can afford the fruits of competition. Competition may have put Mom-and-Pop stores out of business, but what sprang up in their place? Many times the number of convenience stores and, of course, supermarkets and big-box stores that offer a far greater variety of products at much lower prices. In sum, consumers put Mom-and-Pop stores out of business.

The nostalgia for Mom-and-Pop stores is just that: nostalgia. I share it because I’m old enough to remember real Mom-and-Pop stores, including one that sold delicious homemade bread. But should hundreds of millions of people have far fewer choices and pay more for them just to slake my nostalgia? What about the nostalgia of future generations for Costco and Walmart when they have gone the way of Mom-and-Pop stores, Montgomery Ward, Sears, Newberry’s, Kresge’s, Woolworth’s, and all the other companies of an imaginary golden age? Should online retailing be banned for nostalgia’s sake?

Well, “little people” are ripped off by big business, aren’t they? Please re-read the preceding paragraphs, and consider that competition is a safeguard against rip-offs. The biggest rip-off, for “little people” and everyone else, occurs when regulation (beloved by leftists) stifles competition.

The thing that leftists hate most about competition is that it’s conducted by private parties and  often leads to results that leftists dislike (i.e, “market failure”). Therefore, in the left’s view, the best way to ensure “market success” is to socialize the provision of essential products and services. This has been tried before, of course, with a notable lack of success in the USSR, Communist China (before it shifted to a quasi-market economy), Cuba, Venezuela, and hordes of other socialist regimes. Britain, which escaped the worst excesses of socialism when Margaret Thatcher privatized most industries, remains saddled with socialized medicine. Despite the mountain of true horror stories about the poor quality of health care (and lack thereof) offered by Britain’s National Health Service, hope springs eternal among American leftists that it would be different here. (This is symptomatic of the usual response to problems created by state action, namely, double down on state action.)

Insurance, in the left’s view, isn’t something that one buys as a hedge against the unpredictable. It is, rather, something to be provided by the state as guaranteed compensation for the predictable. Old age and discretionary treatments and procedures (e.g., birth control, abortion, and regular checkups) are the most prominent of predictable conditions that give rise to “social insurance”, as the left likes to call it. Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security aren’t “social insurance”, they’re just subsidies exacted from tax-paying Americans for the benefit of everyone whom leftists view as deserving of subsidies.

The risible term “social insurance” is meant to justify what the left calls “rights”. Rights are what a leftist believes people should have, regardless of the costs borne by those pay for those “rights” through taxes; regulatory constraints; lost jobs, promotions, and university admissions; and so on. This is a complete perversion of the idea of rights. If I have a right that you must pay for, then I effectively deprive you of the same right, or at least diminish your chances of enjoying that right. In sum, the left’s “rights” are really privileges.

The left often justifies its “rights” as the means of rectifying injustices done to “victims”. Thus blacks have a “right” to be hired before better-qualified whites. (That’s not how the law reads, but that’s how EEOC minions make it work. It has a perverse effect to the extent that employers find subtle ways of screening out blacks before they formally apply for jobs, as a way of avoiding the complications that arise if black applicants aren’t hired or are hired and later fired.) Thus taxpayers are burdened by payments to possessors of various “welfare rights”, even though it has been found many times (e.g., here) that applications for such “rights” diminish sharply when work requirements are attached to them.

I could go on and on, but it will be quicker to name the persons without “victims’ rights”, namely, white, male, heterosexual Christian Americans of European descent who are gainfully employed.

The constant search for “victims” points to a common attitude among leftists: condescension, born of a false sense of superiority. Whence that sense? Well, leftists are a reality-based community, as the saying went a few years ago. Not that we’ve encountered realistic assumptions or attitudes thus far in this essay, nor would we if we were to venture into such matters as the catastrophic-anthropogenic-global-warming hoax.

But no matter, leftists believe in “science”, that is, in the cherry-picked evidence which comes their way and “proves” what they choose to believe. That is why, for example, leftists like to flaunt the results of one study which purports to show that the minimum wage has “little” effect on unemployment (as if “little” were acceptable), when dozens of studies (e.g., the one discussed here) have found a large negative effect. Their belief in “science” gives them cover for their dictatorial schemes, the details of which they entrust to government “technocrats”.

Two big assumptions underlie everything else said and done by leftists. The first, and most obvious, is that leftists prefer one-size-fits-all government “solutions” to “problems” over the voluntary working out of a modus vivendi. This goes to leftist condescension. In the left’s view, the “little people” — and businesses, big and small — just wouldn’t know what to do in the absence of government action or, more precisely, wouldn’t do the “right thing”. (Isn’t it wonderful to have such the vast store of knowledge and super-computational skills that enable right-minded leftists to ascertain the proper resolution of countless social and economic transactions between hundreds of millions of people with myriad and always changing wants, tastes, preferences, skills, and abilities?)

There’s a deeper assumption at work in the left-wing mentality. It’s an assumption that permeates the thinking of many non-leftists, as well. It’s the idea of a social-welfare function. A voluntary exchange results when each of the parties to the exchange believes that he will be better off as a result of the exchange. An honest voluntary exchange — one in which there is no deception or material lack of information — therefore improves the well-being (welfare) of all parties. An involuntary exchange, as in the case of tax-funded medical research, cannot make all parties better off. No government agent — or economist, pundit, or politician — can look into the minds of millions of people and say that each of them would benefit from this or that government program and therefore willingly pay a certain amount of money for benefits received. But that is the presumption which lies behind government spending, of which leftists are the loudest and leading proponents.

Leftists usually will favor government spending without trying to justify it with numbers; they just know that it’s “a good thing”. But they’re often abetted by practitioners of the quasi-science of economics. Many — too many — economists will say that if the “social benefit” of a program equals or exceeds its cost, the program is presumably justified because the undertaking of it would cause “social welfare” to increase. But a “social benefit” — like a breakthrough in medical research — is a always a benefit to some persons, while the taxes paid to elicit the benefit are nothing but a burden to other persons, who have their own problems and priorities.

Why doesn’t the good offset the bad? Think of it this way: If a bully punches you in the nose, thus deriving much pleasure at your expense, who is to say that the bully’s pleasure outweighs your pain? Do you believe that there’s a third party who is entitled to say that the result of your transaction with the bully is a heightened state of social welfare? Evidently, there are a lot of voters, economists, pundits, and politician who act as if they believe it.

Most political agnostics (the great mass in the center who have been taught that it’s government’s job to “do something” about their particular problems) and many conservatives enable the left’s agenda. The conservatives (real or nominal) do so either because they’re stupid, hopeful of finding common ground with their political enemies (a hope founded on stupidity), or (and most commonly) eager to win votes by eschewing the “meanie” label (and its many equivalents) that leftists love to hang on conservatives.

STRATEGY AND TACTICS

That brings me to the final assumption of leftism that I will address here: The spending of other people’s money is “compassionate”. (-Well, that’s the cynical story line of (usually) atheist leftists who like to invoke Christ in support of big government.)

Another of the left’s leading strategies was enunciated by FDR’s trusted adviser, Harry Hopkins: “We shall tax and tax, and spend and spend, and elect and elect.” The key is to sell big government by playing up the benefits and playing down the costs — or ignoring them, or claiming that “the rich” will bear them. The more people who learn dependence on government, the more reason to expand it and the more support for its expansion.

There are, of course, some well-to-do leftists who welcome the opportunity to pay taxes, and advertise their willingness to do so. Some will even parrot Oliver Wendell Holmes’s empty-headed bit of rhetoric: “Taxes are what we pay for a civilized society.” You’d think there would be a limit as to how much must be spent for a “civilized society”, that is, one which is minimally troubled by fraud and aggression. But given the left’s expansive view of the requirements of civilization, “enough” is never attained or attainable. More is always better than less when it comes to government spending.

And why this is so, in the leftist view, is that government officials and minions aren’t prey to the failings that pervade private dealings. They are — by some mysterious process that is thought to be missing from the private sector — capable of delivering high-quality services of relevance to people’s “problems” at “reasonable” cost. This is known as the nirvana fallacy, which is not only an assumption of leftism but also a perennially successful basis for the sale of leftist schemes. And a lot of people swallow it because they believe, against all experience, that government is filled with experts whose sole aim in life is to guide “the people” on the path to greater happiness.

Big government wasn’t sold in a day, of course. It began in earnest during the Progressive Era, when muckrakers attacked the so-called trusts (e.g., Standard Oil) that had actually made life better for most Americans while employing millions of them. But the “fat cat” image successfully attached to capitalism during the Progressive Era has persisted. And it has been augmented by the a long parade of “benefits” that, once bestowed, are defended tenaciously and successfully by voters, left-wing politicians, and faux conservatives who value the perks of office more than principle.

The bestowal of an entitlement is an element of a hoary device employed by the likes of Stalin and Hitler (another leftist), namely, salami tactics:

The term is also known as a “piecemeal strategy”, as used by the Nazi Party … to achieve absolute power in Germany in the early months of 1933. First, there was the Reichstag fire of February 27, 1933, which rattled the German population and led to the Reichstag Fire Decree, which suspended many civil liberties and outlawed the Communist Party and the Social Democrats. An estimated 10,000 people were arrested in two weeks, soon followed by the Enabling Act on March 24, 1933, which gave Hitler plenary power, allowing him to bypass the Reichstag and further consolidate power. Hitler and the Nazis continued to systematically establish totalitarian control by eliminating potential opponents, such as trade unions and rival political parties. They also established organizations with mandatory membership, such as the Hitler Youth, Bund Deutscher Mädel and Arbeitsdienst. The Enabling Act was renewed in 1937 and 1941. Finally, on April 26, 1942, the Reichstag passed a law making Hitler the oberster Gerichtsherr, the supreme judge of the land, giving him power of life and death over every citizen and effectively extending the Enabling Act for the rest of the war. This gradual process of amassing power is today lumped in as Salamitaktik (salami tactics). [Wikipedia, as of July 19, 2017]

An especially devious salami tactic — so devious and effective that it’s really a brilliant grand strategy — was the seizure of university “education” curricula by leftists. Schools of “education” have churned out millions of willing acolytes for the left’s preferences, on matters ranging from government (more) and internationalism (sing “Kumbaya”) to “climate change” (bad humans), unfettered immigration (good Mexicans), and gender confusion (you are what you say you are). Public-school teachers are in the vanguard of vigilantism against the mere thought of guns and the mere mention of God. And yet public-school teachers are so “indispensable” — just ask them and their board-of-education enablers — that they are more sacrosanct than Santa Claus. And so is “school funding” (more, more, more), a shibboleth that politicians of all stripes must utter or be damned, despite the fact that massive increases in “school funding” have done nothing to improve the education of America’s children.

It has become trite to observe that leftists are better than conservatives at hewing the to a party line and working together to realize an agenda. But the observation is so accurate that I couldn’t resist repeating it. Leftists are united and firm in their belief that government cures all ills, and united and firm in their definition of ills (until an influential leftist signals a change of course). Conservatives have the great disadvantage of disunity that arises from a paradox: A true conservative is loath to become a public official or serve in any kind of governing capacity. (Cops and military enlistees, yes, because conservatives understand the need to keep barbarians at bay.) Most politicians who run for office as conservatives are really something else entirely. “Opportunist” is the best that I can come up with at the moment.

Given the pervasive influence of leftist teachers and professors, it’s no wonder that most reporters and news executives are leftists. It’s easy for left-wing politicians and “activists” to strike chords that resonate with the media. Just focus on purported benefits, ignore costs, portray opponents as “meanies”, and Bob’s your uncle: another sympathetic story in The New York Times, The Washington Post, other major dailies, most broadcast news outlets, and the slave papers owned by the big chains. The left plays the media like Itzhak Perlman plays the violin, and most Americans dance to the tune.

The occasional scandal is soon forgotten because the left-wing media control the microphone, and its heart is in “the right place”. (Shades of Bill Clinton, the sexual predator and perjurer, whose female lawyer gave him a pass because his party is the party of allegiance to feminism.)

PSYCHOLOGY

Leftists (and their enablers) can be assigned to one or more of these not-mutually-exclusive categories:

  • Controllers – Just do it our way because (a) we have “science/social justice” on our side; (b) because we want it that way even if the “science” is phony and “social justice” is nothing but a slogan; and (c) we have the power to make you do it our way, and we love to use power.

  • Risk-avoiders — Someone somewhere was harmed by something, or might be harmed by something, so we’re going to enforce some rules in the vain hope of preventing more harm, and we don’t care (or even think) about the cost of those rules in foregone economic growth, employment, personal liberty, or self-reliance (i.e., learning from experience).

  • Token “liberals” (including many so-called libertarians) — Liberty is desirable, as long as it doesn’t have consequences of which we disapprove, such as “market failure”, any kind of discrimination (except against our ideological enemies), (relative) poverty, or the merest hint that an innocent person has been imprisoned. (In fact, “too many” people — of the wrong color — are in prison (even though the crime rate is much lower as a result.) And liberty means the absence of violence except in the final (and probably futile) throes of self-defense (if then) because everyone is a sane and reasonable as we are.

  • Free-riders – If government is giving away “free” stuff or granting privileges to certain groups, I’m all for more government handouts, I just don’t want to pay for them. (This is a position held mainly by blacks and Hispanics, and in the past by most working-class whites. It’s unlikely that blacks and Hispanics will defect from their opportunistic embrace of leftism, and working-class whites may return to the fold in large numbers if — as is likely — their expectations of a Trump presidency are disappointed. In fact, the ranks of the working class will be swelled by unemployed and underemployed millennials, degreed and undegreed, whose unemployment and underemployment make them easy prey for advocates of “free” stuff.)

Controllers are authoritarian and arrogant (especially the more intelligent of the lot), often with an overlay of neuroticism and psychopathy. Risk-avoiders usually are neurotics with low self-esteem. Token “liberals” are neurotic authoritarians, often with low self-esteem. Free riders are incompetents (by nature or habit, or for lack of marketable skills) with dysfunctional traits (e.g., low self-esteem, neuroses, addictions, low intelligence) that lead to dependency on other people, mind-altering substances, or both.

It’s reasonable to ask if the traits mentioned in the preceding paragraph are exclusive to leftists. They’re not, of course. Right-statists certainly must have some of the same traits — especially authoritarianism. But right-statists are simply left-statists with a different agenda. And left-statists wield far more power and are (and have been for decades) a far greater threat to liberty in America than left-statists.

That is so because the psychological traits of left-statists are made manifest in rhetoric that gives them a great advantage in political warfare. It is the rhetoric of false compassion, of caring about “victims”. (See, for example, Scott Johnson, “The Socialist Temptation“, Power Line, July 2, 2017.) This tendency is borne out in the work of Jonathan Haidt and his colleagues at  MoralFoundations.org, whose

theory proposes that several innate and universally available psychological systems are the foundations of “intuitive ethics.” Each culture then constructs virtues, narratives, and institutions on top of these foundations, thereby creating the unique moralities we see around the world, and conflicting within nations too. The five foundations for which we think the evidence is best are:

1) Care/harm: This foundation is related to our long evolution as mammals with attachment systems and an ability to feel (and dislike) the pain of others. It underlies virtues of kindness, gentleness, and nurturance.

2) Fairness/cheating: This foundation is related to the evolutionary process of reciprocal altruism. It generates ideas of justice, rights, and autonomy. [Note: In our original conception, Fairness included concerns about equality, which are more strongly endorsed by political liberals. However, as we reformulated the theory in 2011 based on new data, we emphasize proportionality, which is endorsed by everyone, but is more strongly endorsed by conservatives]

3) Loyalty/betrayal: This foundation is related to our long history as tribal creatures able to form shifting coalitions. It underlies virtues of patriotism and self-sacrifice for the group. It is active anytime people feel that it’s “one for all, and all for one.”

4) Authority/subversion: This foundation was shaped by our long primate history of hierarchical social interactions. It underlies virtues of leadership and followership, including deference to legitimate authority and respect for traditions.

5) Sanctity/degradation: This foundation was shaped by the psychology of disgust and contamination. It underlies religious notions of striving to live in an elevated, less carnal, more noble way. It underlies the widespread idea that the body is a temple which can be desecrated by immoral activities and contaminants (an idea not unique to religious traditions)….

Much of our present research involves applying the theory to political “cultures” such as those of liberals and conservatives. The current American culture war, we have found, can be seen as arising from the fact that liberals [leftists] try to create a morality relying primarily on the Care/harm foundation, with additional support from the Fairness/cheating and Liberty/oppression foundations. Conservatives, especially religious conservatives, use all six foundations, including Loyalty/betrayal, Authority/subversion, and Sanctity/degradation.

Arnold Kling captures some aspects of this taxonomy in The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divides:

In politics, I claim that progressives [leftists], conservatives, and libertarians are like tribes speaking different languages….

Which political language do you speak?… [T]hink of one of your favorite political commentators, an insightful individual with whom you generally agree. Which of the following statements would that commentator most likely make?

(P) My heroes are people who have stood up for the underprivileged. The people I cannot stand are the people who are indifferent to the oppression of women, minorities, and the poor. (C) My heroes are people who have stood up for Western values. The people I cannot stand are the people who are indifferent to the assault on the moral virtues and traditions that are the foundation for our civilization. (L) My heroes are people who have stood up for individual rights. The people I cannot stand are the people who are indifferent to government taking away people’s ability to make their own choices.

The central claim of this book is that (P) is the language of progressives, (C) is the language of conservatives, and (L) is the language of libertarians. If the theory is correct, then someone who chooses (P) tends to identify with progressives, someone who chooses (C) tends to identify with conservatives, and someone who chooses (L) tends to identify with libertarians.

I call this the three-axes model of political communication. A progressive will communicate along the oppressor-oppressed axis, framing issues in terms of the (P) dichotomy. A conservative will communicate along the civilization-barbarism axis, framing issues in terms of the (C) dichotomy. A libertarian will communicate along the liberty-coercion axis, framing issues in terms of the (L) dichotomy.

Note that the progressive is not using the phenomenon of oppression per se as a means of expressing a political viewpoint. Rather, the progressive believes that certain groups or classes of people intrinsically fall into categories of oppressor or oppressed.

And so it goes. Leftists become so detached from reality that they believe that anyone who speaks the language of “liberation” is actually in favor of it: Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Castro, Chavez, and on and on. Back in the days before communists and their progeny became slick salesmen of statism, Friedrich Engels (Marx’s sidekick) let it all hang out in “On Authority” (1872):

A number of Socialists have latterly launched a regular crusade against what they call the principle of authority. It suffices to tell them that this or that act is authoritarian for it to be condemned….

Authority, in the sense in which the word is used here, means: the imposition of the will of another upon ours; on the other hand, authority presupposes subordination….

… [T]he necessity of authority, and of imperious authority at that, will nowhere be found more evident than on board a ship on the high seas. There, in time of danger, the lives of all depend on the instantaneous and absolute obedience of all to the will of one….

A revolution is certainly the most authoritarian thing there is; it is the act whereby one part of the population imposes its will upon the other part by means of rifles, bayonets and cannon — authoritarian means, if such there be at all; and if the victorious party does not want to have fought in vain, it must maintain this rule by means of the terror which its arms inspire in the reactionists. Would the Paris Commune have lasted a single day if it had not made use of this authority of the armed people against the bourgeois? Should we not, on the contrary, reproach it for not having used it freely enough?

Violence is a good thing if your heart is in the “right” (i.e., left) place. And violence is in the hearts of leftists, along with hatred and the irresistible urge to suppress that which is hated because it challenges leftist orthodoxy — from climate skepticism and the negative effect of gun ownership on crime to the negative effect of the minimum wage and the causal relationship between Islam and terrorism.

There’s something about conservatives that causes leftists to invoke the “H” word — Hitler, that is — and its close substitutes: Nazi and fascist. I have a little story that illustrates the tendency and suggests its cause. I was visiting Austin years ago and fell into a discussion with my brother-in-law and his wife, both ardent leftists and active in local Democrat politics. They had recently moved to the affluent Northwest Hills section of the city, ostensibly to enable their daughter to attend the schools in that part of the city, which are by reputation better than the ones in South Austin, where they had been living. Northwest Hills is mostly white; many of the whites are Jewish; and the non-white population is mainly of East Asian origin and descent. Blacks and Hispanics are seldom seen in Northwest Hills, except as employees of the city and local businesses, and as nannies and yard men. South Austin is much less affluent than Northwest Hills, and far more heavily populated by Hispanics.

The brother-in-law and his wife were apologetic about their move. Though they didn’t put it this way, they had revealed themselves as hypocrites about ethnic diversity and their supposed sympathy with the “less fortunate.” But their hypocrisy was excused by their concern for their daughter’s education. (A classic example of leftist hypocrisy, in the same mold as Democrat presidents — Clinton and Obama most recently — who sent their children to private schools in mostly black D.C.). They were especially chagrined because they (and their leftist ilk) referred to the denizens of their new neighborhood as “Northwest Nazis.” The appellation arose from the fact that Northwest Hills was then (and still is) more Republican than the surrounding parts of heavily Democrat Austin.

I thought to myself at the time, how utterly wrong-headed it is for leftists — who are ardent fans of dictatorial statism — to refer to Republicans as Nazis. Republicans generally oppose the left’s dictatorial schemes. But leftists like my brother-in-law and his wife — who are given to equating Republicans with fascists, Nazis, and Hitlers — are themselves ardent proponents of the expansion of the fascistic state that has been erected, almost without pause, since the New Deal.

The practice of applying such labels as Hitler, fascist, and Nazi to Republicans — and especially to conservatives — strikes me as psychological projection. That’s not a new explanation, but it’s a sound one. The following quotations are excerpted from two blog posts (here and here) by Australian psychologist John J. Ray, who has done a lot of research and writing about the left and its delusions:

I have been looking at the differences between the Left and the Right of politics since 1968, when I submitted my Master’s dissertation  on that subject.  And my aim has been to understand WHY Leftists behave like SoBs so much of the time. How is it that implementing Leftist policies always results in harm and destruction of some sort, if not mass murder?

So my interest has been not only in Leftist claims and policies but also in their underlying psychology.  I think, in fact, that it is only at the psychological level that Leftism can be understood.  And, in that, I find myself in a degree of agreement with Leftist psychologists.  Leftists never stop offering accounts of the psychology of conservatives, adverse accounts, of course. It is one of the more popular fields of research in psychology.  So Leftists are most emphatic that you need to delve into the psychological realm to understand politics.  In any argument on the facts they will be defeated by conservatives so impugning the motives of their opponent is essentially all that they have left.

I am VERY familiar with the Leftist claims in that regard. Most of my 200+ academic journal articles were devoted to showing that the research they relied on in support of their claims was flawed, often hilariously so.

But there was one redeeming feature in their research.  In purporting to describe conservatives they usually were quite clearly describing themselves!  An accusation that they never seem able to let go of, despite much contrary evidence, is that conservatives are “authoritarian”….

*     *     *

The concept of “authoritarianism” as an explanation for conservatism has been like catnip to Leftist psychologists.  They cannot leave it alone.  It first arose among a group of Jewish Marxists in the late 1940s and was published in a 1950 book called “The authoritaian personality” under the lead authorship of a prominent Marxist theoretician, Theodor Wiesengrund, who usually used as his surname the stage name of his Spanish dancer mother — Adorno.

The theory underlying it failed in all sorts of ways so it fell out of favour after the ’60s, though it still got an occasional mention. For more on the Adorno work see here.

In the first half of his first book in 1981, “Bob” Altemeyer gave a comprehensive summary of the problems with the Adorno theory and submitted that it had to be discarded.  He then went on to put forward a slightly different theory and measuring instrument of his own that rebooted the concept of authoritarianism as an explanation of conservative thinking.

That theory and its accompanying measuring instrument (the RWA scale) also soon ran aground, however.  Altemeyer himself admitted that scores on the RWA scale were just about as high among Leftist voters as Rightist voters — which rather ruined it as an explanation of conservatism.  The death knell came when it was revealed that the highest scorers on the RWA scale were in fact former Russian Communists!  Right wing Communists??  For more on Altemeyer’s confusions see here. Or more concisely here.

So the RWA scale lost most of its interest after that, though it is still cautiously used on some occasions — e.g here.

But … Leftist psychologists did not give up.  A group of them including Karen Stenner, Stanley Feldman, Marc Hetherington and Jonathan Weiler revived the old ideas and invented a new questionnaire to measure the concept.  And reading their “new” theory is like a trip back into the 1940’s.  Conservatives are still said to be sad souls who live in a state of constant and unreasonable  fear.

The amusing thing is that there is some reality behind their theory.  The key word is “unreasonable”.  How much fear is “unreasonable”?  Is all fear “unreasonable”?  Obviously not.  Fear is an important survival mechanism.  We would all be eaten by lions etc. without it.  And conservatives do fear the probable results of the hare-brained schemes put forward by Leftists.  Conservatives are nothing if not cautious but to the superficial thinkers of the Left, that caution seems like fear.  So from a conservative viewpoint Leftists are not fearful enough.  They do not fear the “unforeseen” and adverse side effects that invariably accompany any implementation of their schemes.

So, despite the laughable psychometric characteristics of their new measuring instrument, which I set out yesterday, they have in fact achieved some grasp of reality.  They have just not grasped that caution can be a good thing and have not thought deeply enough about the distinction, if any, between caution and fear.  So all their writings amount to little more than an adverse value judgment of things that are in fact probably desirable.

So why all the mental muddle from them?  Why does the old “authoritarianism” catnip keep them coming back to that dubious concept?  Why have they not learnt from its past failures?  Easy:  It’s all Freudian projection.  They see their own faults in conservatives.  The people who REALLY ARE authoritarian are Leftists themselves.  Communist regimes are ALWAYS authoritarian and in democracies the constant advocates of more and more government control over everything are the Left.  The Left are the big government advocates, not conservatives.  What could be more authoritarian than Obama’s aim to “fundamentally transform” America? It is the Left who trust in big brother while conservatives just want to be left alone.

It’s true that conservatives have respect for authority, which isn’t the same thing as authoritarianism. To a conservative, respect for “authority” means respect for the civilizing norms that are represented in a lawful institution when it acts within its traditional bounds. For example, conservatives respect presidents when they strive to restore and sustain the constitutional order; conservatives therefore disrespect presidents who blatantly violate that order.

What about Mussolini and Hitler, who are usually thought of as right-wing dictators and therefore labeled as conservative? I return to John Ray, who has this to say about Mussolini:

Let us listen initially to some reflections on the early days of Fascism by Mussolini himself — first published in 1935 (See the third chapter in Greene, 1968).

“If the bourgeoisie think they will find lightning conductors in us they are the more deceived; we must start work at once …. We want to accustom the working class to real and effectual leadership“.

And that was Mussolini quoting his own words from the early Fascist days. So while Mussolini had by that time (in his 30s) come to reject the Marxist idea of a class-war, he still saw himself as anti-bourgeois and as a saviour and leader of the workers. What modern-day Leftist could not identify with that?…

“If the 19th century has been the century of the individual (for liberalism means individualism), it may be conjectured that this is the century of the State.

This is Mussolini’s famous prophecy about the 20th century in the Enciclopedia Italiana….

“Laissez faire is out of date.”

To this day the basic free market doctrine of “laissez faire” is virtually a swear-word to most Leftists. Quoted from Smith (1967, p. 87)….

And Mussolini’s “Fascist Manifesto” of 1919 (full translation by Vox Day here) includes in Fascist policy such socialist gems as (I quote):
* The nationalization of all the arms and explosives factories.
* A strong progressive tax on capital that will truly expropriate a portion of all wealth.
* The seizure of all the possessions of the religious congregations and the abolition of all the bishoprics, which constitute an enormous liability on the Nation and on the privileges of the poor.
* The formation of a National Council of experts for labor, for industy, for transportation, for the public health, for communications, etc. Selections to be made from the collective professionals or of tradesmen with legislative powers, and elected directly to a General Commission with ministerial powers.
* A minimum wage.
* The participation of workers’ representatives in the functions of industry commissions.

Elsewhere, Ray says this about Mussolini and his aims:

“Fascism” is a term that was originally coined by the Italian dictator Mussolini to describe his adaptation of Marxism to the conditions of Italy after World War I. Lenin in Russia made somewhat different adaptations of Marxism to the conditions in Russia during the same period and his adaptations came to be called Marxism/Leninism. Mussolini stayed closer to Marx in that he felt that Italy had to go through a capitalist stage before it could reach socialism whereas Lenin attempted to push Russia straight from semi-feudalism into socialism. Mussolini’s principal modification of Marxism was his rejection of the notion of class war, something that put him decisively at odds with Lenin’s “Reds”….

Mussolini’s ideas and system were very influential and he had many imitators — not the least of which was Adolf Hitler….

…Mussolini was quite intellectual and his thinking was in fact much more up-to-date than that would suggest. He was certainly influenced by Marx and the ancient world but he had a whole range of ideas that extended beyond that. And where did he turn for up-to-date ideas? To America, of course! And the American ideas that influenced him were in fact hard to miss. They were the ideas of the American “Progressives”. And who was the best known Progressive in the world at that time? None other than the President of the United States — Woodrow Wilson….

Ray takes up FDR’s resemblance to Mussolini, and defers to Srdja Trifkovic’s “FDR and Mussolini: A Tale of Two Fascists,” which includes these observations:

Genuine conservatives … may argue that FDR and Mussolini were in fact rather similar. They will point out both men’s obsessive focus on strong, centralized government structures, their demagoguery, and especially their attempt to overcome the dynamics of social and economic conflict through the institutions of the corporate state.

For all their apparent similarities, however, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was a more deleterious figure than Benito Mussolini, and his legacy proved to be more damaging to America than Il Duce’s was to Italy. This is not a case of good versus bad, or of two equal evils, but of bad versus even worse: Roosevelt was a more efficient, and certainly more successful, fascist than Mussolini.

As for Hitler, I return to John Ray and his monograph, “Hitler Was a Socialist“:

It is very easy to miss complexities in the the politics of the past and thus draw wrong conclusions about them. To understand the politics of the past we need to set aside for a time our own way of looking at things and try to see how the people involved at the time saw it all. Doing so is an almost essential step if we wish to understand the similarities and differences between Nazism and Marxism/Leninism. The following excerpt from James P. O’Donnell’s THE BUNKER (1978, Boston, Houghton Mifflin, pp. 261-262) is instructive. O’Donnell is quoting Artur Axmann, the Nazi youth leader, recalling a conversation with Goebbels in the Hitler bunker on Tuesday, May 1, 1945, the same day Goebbels and his wife would kill themselves after she killed their children.

“Goebbels stood up to greet me. He soon launched into lively memories of our old street-fighting days in Berlin-Wedding, from nineteen twenty-eight to thirty-three. He recalled how we had clobbered the Berlin Communists and the Socialists into submission, to the tune of the “Horst Wessel” marching song, on their old home ground.He said one of the great accomplishments of the Hitler regime had been to win the German workers over almost totally to the national cause. We had made patriots of the workers, he said, as the Kaiser had dismally failed to do. This, he kept repeating, had been one of the real triumphs of the movement. We Nazis were a non-Marxist yet revolutionary party, anticapitalist, antibourgeois, antireactionary….

Starch-collared men like Chancellor Heinrich Bruening had called us the “Brown Bolsheviks,” and their bourgeois instincts were not wrong.

It seems inconceivable to modern minds that just a few differences between two similar ideologies — Marxism and Nazism — could have been sufficient cause for great enmity between those two ideologies. But the differences concerned were important to the people involved at the time. Marxism was class-based and Nazism was nationally based but otherwise they were very similar. That’s what people said and thought at the time and that explains what they did and how they did it.

And a quote from Hitler himself:

“Stalin and I are the only ones who envisage the future and nothing but the future. Accordingly, I shall in a few weeks stretch out my hand to Stalin at the common German-Russian frontier and undertake the redistribution of the world with him.”

… Consider this description by Edward Feser of someone who would have been a pretty good Presidential candidate for the modern-day U.S. Democratic party:

He had been something of a bohemian in his youth, and always regarded young people and their idealism as the key to progress and the overcoming of outmoded prejudices. And he was widely admired by the young people of his country, many of whom belonged to organizations devoted to practicing and propagating his teachings. He had a lifelong passion for music, art, and architecture, and was even something of a painter. He rejected what he regarded as petty bourgeois moral hang-ups, and he and his girlfriend “lived together” for years. He counted a number of homosexuals as friends and collaborators, and took the view that a man’s personal morals were none of his business; some scholars of his life believe that he himself may have been homosexual or bisexual. He was ahead of his time where a number of contemporary progressive causes are concerned: he disliked smoking, regarding it as a serious danger to public health, and took steps to combat it; he was a vegetarian and animal lover; he enacted tough gun control laws; and he advocated euthanasia for the incurably ill.

He championed the rights of workers, regarded capitalist society as brutal and unjust, and sought a third way between communism and the free market. In this regard, he and his associates greatly admired the strong steps taken by President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal to take large-scale economic decision-making out of private hands and put it into those of government planning agencies. His aim was to institute a brand of socialism that avoided the inefficiencies that plagued the Soviet variety, and many former communists found his program highly congenial. He deplored the selfish individualism he took to be endemic to modern Western society, and wanted to replace it with an ethic of self-sacrifice: “As Christ proclaimed ‘love one another’,” he said, “so our call — ‘people’s community,’ ‘public need before private greed,’ ‘communally-minded social consciousness’ — rings out.! This call will echo throughout the world!”

The reference to Christ notwithstanding, he was not personally a Christian, regarding the Catholicism he was baptized into as an irrational superstition. In fact he admired Islam more than Christianity, and he and his policies were highly respected by many of the Muslims of his day. He and his associates had a special distaste for the Catholic Church and, given a choice, preferred modern liberalized Protestantism, taking the view that the best form of Christianity would be one that forsook the traditional other-worldly focus on personal salvation and accommodated itself to the requirements of a program for social justice to be implemented by the state. They also considered the possibility that Christianity might eventually have to be abandoned altogether in favor of a return to paganism, a worldview many of them saw as more humane and truer to the heritage of their people. For he and his associates believed strongly that a people’s ethnic and racial heritage was what mattered most. Some endorsed a kind of cultural relativism according to which what is true or false and right or wrong in some sense depends on one’s ethnic worldview, and especially on what best promotes the well-being of one’s ethnic group

There is surely no doubt that the man Feser describes sounds very much like a mainstream Leftist by current standards. But who is the man concerned? It is a historically accurate description of Adolf Hitler. Hitler was not only a socialist in his own day but he would even be a mainstream socialist in MOST ways today. Feser does not mention Hitler’s antisemitism above, of course, but that too seems once again to have become mainstream among the Western-world Left in the early years of the 21st century.

I have no doubt that the American left — from Woodrow Wilson (if not Teddy Roosevelt) to the present day — is aligned with the political aims of Mussolini and Hitler, which were (beneath the rhetoric) the political aims of Lenin, Stalin, and Mao. Regarding Hitler and Stalin, I turn to chapter 6 of Revel’s Last Exit to Utopia, with the proviso that Revel’s references to communism and socialism apply equally to leftism, whether it is called progressivism, liberalism, or liberal democracy:

Communism’s stoke of genius was to authorize the destruction of liberty in the name of liberty. It allowed liberty’s enemies to carry out their work of annihilation, or to exonerate those who carried out the work, under a “progressive” rationale….

[A]n element of the left, more numerous than might be thought, needs to think that anyone who isn’t a socialist must be a Nazi….

There are two sorts of totalitarian systems. There is the kind whose ideology is what I would call direct, and which is readily decipherable: Hitler and Mussolini always made it plain that they despised democracy, freedom of expression and culture….

Communism differs from direct totalitarianisms in that it has recourse to ideological dissimulation…. A detour via Utopia allows an ideology (and the power system that it purports to legitimize) to proclaim one success after another without interruption, while in reality its results are diametrically opposed to the vaunted agenda…. The intellectual trap of a totalitarian ideology”mediatized” by Utopia is therefore much more difficult to foil than that of direct ideology because, to utopian believers, actually occurring events can never prove their ideology false.

France … invented this politico-ideological configuration with Robespierre and the Jacobin dictatorship…. Western intellectuals, never having lived under actually existing totalitarianism, clung [and cling] obstinately to its utopian facade….

Utopian totalitarianism’s infinite capacity for self-justification, in contrast to direct totalitarianism, explains why … so many of its servants go about unscathed by feelings of shame or regret. Perched in their immaculate Utopia, they absolve themselves of crimes to which they were the angelic accomplices, in the name of ideals they have shamelessly trampled underfoot. [pp. 86-91, passim]

Violence, hatred, and suppression don’t go with leftists’ self-image of “compassion” and “rationality”, so leftists engage in a lot of wishful thinking. (“Imagine all the people….”) Thomas Sowell calls it the unconstrained vision; I call it the unrealistic vision. It’s also known as magical thinking, in which “ought” becomes “is” and the forces of nature and human nature can be held in abeyance by edict; for example:

  • Women can do everything that men can do, but it doesn’t work the other way … just because.

  • The under-representation of women and blacks in certain fields is due to rank discrimination (but it’s all right if blacks dominate certain sports and women now far outnumber men on college campuses).

  • Race is a “social construct”.

  • A minimum wage can be imposed without an increase in unemployment.

  • Taxes can be raised without discouraging investment and therefore reducing the rate of economic growth.

  • Peace can be had without preparedness for war.

  • Regulation doesn’t reduce the rate of economic growth and foster “crony capitalism”.

  • The cost of health care will go down while the number of mandates is increased.

  • The economy can be stimulated through the action of the Keynesian multiplier, which is nothing but phony math.

  • “Green” programs create jobs (but only because they are inefficient).

  • Every “right” under the sun can be granted without cost (e.g., affirmative action racial-hiring quotas, which penalize blameless whites; the Social Security Ponzi scheme, which burdens today’s workers and cuts into growth-inducing saving).

To round out the psychological profile of leftism, one must add to magical thinking the closely related nirvana fallacy (hypothetical perfect is always better than feasible reality), large doses of neurotic hysteria (e.g., the overpopulation fears of Paul Ehrlich, the AGW hoax of Al Gore et al.), and adolescent rebellion (e.g., the post-election tantrum-riots of 2016).

But to say any of the foregoing about the left’s agenda, the assumptions and attitudes underlying it, the left’s strategic and tactical methods, or the psychological underpinnings of leftism, is to be “hateful”. In my observation, nothing is more full of hate than a lefitst who has been contradicted or thwarted. So through the magic of psychological projection, those who dare speak the truth about leftism are called “haters”, “racists”, “fascists”, “Nazis”, and other things that apply to leftists themselves.

Labeling anti-leftists as evil “justifies” the left’s violent enforcement of its agenda. The violence takes many forms, from riotous rebellion and terror (e.g., the French Revolution), to suppression by force (e.g., Stalin’s war on the Cossacks), to genocide (e.g., the Holocaust), to overtly peaceful but coercive state action (e.g., Stalin’s “show trials”, forced unionization of American industry, imposition of crop quotas, suppression of religious liberty and freedom of association, the theft of property, and almost every form of economic regulation).

COST

The left’s ascendancy in the United States has been attained at horrendous cost, as is has been wherever else it has taken hold — from the France of the 1790s to the Venezuela of today, with intervening stops in Germany, Italy, Russia, China, and on and on and on.

The economic cost to Americans has been massive. Since the end of World War II, taxation and regulation have caused the rate of real growth to decline from more than 4 percent to less than 2 percent (with negative growth lurking around the corner.)That’s a single-year loss of more than $400 billion in today’s dollars, or more than $1,000 every year for every citizen of the United States. (The loss over a working lifetime is far more than that, of course.) It means, among many things, fewer jobs and a significantly lower standard of living for poor Americans.

The immense cost of the regulatory-welfare state is well hidden by the surfeit of government programs that provide benefits to various interest groups, across the economic spectrum. But all that those programs do is to redistribute a “pie” that is much smaller than it would have been because of taxation and regulation, and from which large slices are taken to compensate armies of politicians, bureaucrats, and their cronies.

More devastating than the economic toll is the loss of liberty that results from government intervention in social and economic affairs. Social and economic liberty are indivisible; taxation and regulation diminish prosperity and thereby diminish liberty (the ability to choose where one lives, with whom one associates, etc.).

Direct attacks on liberty are on the rise, as well. The attacks have thus far been concentrated in the academy and the media. But the direct attacks on liberty will spread, and spread rapidly, if leftists succeed in gaining firm control of Congress and the White House. Freedom of speech will be suppressed to “fight hate”; “hate groups” (i.e., pro-liberty organizations) will be driven out of existence; politicians who dare speak the truth about the left, its agenda, and its protégés, will be persecuted, prosecuted, and imprisoned (thus the Trump-Russia hoax and the January 6 Committee); and the economic and social affairs of Americans will be regimented to fit the left’s agenda.

It can happen here. It is happening here. Why? Because too many Americans will go along with it. In 2015, I took the Freedom Scenarios Inventory at yourmorals.org. I was shocked by the result — not my result, but my result in comparison with the results obtained by other users.

Here is a description of the test:

The scale is a measure of the degree to which people consider different freedom issues to be morally relevant. As you may have noticed, this inventory does not include perennially contentious freedom-related issues like abortion or gun rights. These issues were deliberately excluded from this scale, because we are interested in what drives people to be concerned with freedom issues in general. On the other hand, people’s stances on well worn political issues like abortion and gun control are likely to be influenced more by their political beliefs rather than their freedom concerns.

The idea behind the scale is to determine how various individual difference variables relate to people’s moral freedom concerns. Throughout the world, calls for freedom and liberty are growing louder. We want to begin to investigate what is driving this heightened concern for freedom. Surprisingly little research has investigated the antecedents of freedom concerns. In the past, our group has investigated clusters of characteristics associated with groups of people who are more concerned with liberty (i.e., libertarians), but this type of investigation differs from the current investigation in that we are now interested more in individual differences in freedom concerns – not group differences…. It seems that many psychologists assume that many types of freedom concerns are driven by a lack of empathy for others, but we think the truth is more complicated than this.

The test-taker is asked to rate each of 14 scenarios on the following scale:

0 – Not at all morally bad
1 – Barely morally bad
2 – Slightly morally bad
3 – Somewhat morally bad
4 – Morally bad
5 – Very morally bad
6 – Extremely morally bad
7 – Extraordinarily morally bad
8 – Nothing could be more morally bad

Here are the 14 scenarios, which I’ve numbered for ease of reference:

1. You are no longer free to eat your favorite delicious but unhealthy meal due to the government’s dietary restrictions.

2. You are no longer free to always spend your money in the way you want.

3. You are not always free to wear whatever you want to wear. Some clothes are illegal.

4. Your favorite source of entertainment is made illegal.

5. Your favorite hobby is made illegal.

6.. You are not free to live where you want to live.

7. By law, you must sleep one hour less each day than you would like.

8. You are no longer free to eat your favorite dessert food (because the government has deemed it unhealthy).

9. You are no longer allowed to kill innocent people . [Obviously thrown in to see if you’re paying attention.]

10. You are no longer free to spend as much time as you want watching television/movies/video clips due to government restrictions.

11, You are no longer free to drink your favorite beverage, because the government considers it unhealthy.

12. You are no longer free to drive whenever you want for however long you want due to driving restrictions.

13. You are no longer free to go to your favorite internet site.

14. You are no longer free to go to any internet site you choose to go to.

I didn’t expect to be unusual in my views about freedom. But it seems that I am:

That is my score in green. The score of the average “liberal” is in blue, and the score of the average conservative is in red.

A lot of people — too many — are willing to let government push them around. Why? Because Big Brother knows best? Because freedom isn’t worth fighting for? Because of the illusion of security and prosperity created by the regulatory-welfare state? Whatever the reason, the evident willingness of test-takers to accede to infringements of their liberty is frightening.

It is happening here.

REMEDY

A remedy requires a diagnosis. What went wrong? How did so many Americans come under the spell of big government?

Think back to 1928, when Americans were more prosperous than ever before and the GOP had swept to its third consecutive lopsided victory in a presidential race. All it took to snatch disaster from the jaws of delirium was a stock-market crash in 1929 (fueled by the Fed) that turned into a recession that turned into a depression (also because of the Fed). The depression became the Great Depression, and it lasted until the eve of World War II, because of the activist policies of Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt, which suppressed recovery instead of encouraging it. There was even a recession (1937-38) within the depression, and the national unemployment rate was still 15 percent in 1940. It took the biggest war effort in the history of the United States to bring the unemployment rate back to its pre-depression level.

The relatively brief but deeply dismal era did what the so-called Progressives of earlier decades had been unable to do: It converted vast numbers of Americans to the belief that their well-being depended not on their voluntary, cooperative enterprises but on the central government’s incessant intervention in their social and economic affairs. Most Americans of the era — like most human beings of every era — did not and could not see that government is the problem, not the solution. Victory in World War II, which required central planning and a commandeered economy, helped to expunge the bitter taste of the Great Depression. And coming as it did on the heels of the Great Depression, reinforced the desperate belief — shared by too many Americans — that salvation is to be found in big government.

The beneficial workings of the invisible hand of competitive cooperation are just too subtle for most people to grasp. The promise of a quick fix by confident-sounding politicians is too alluring. FDR became a savior-figure because he talked a good game and was an inspiring war leader, though in the end he succumbed to pro-Soviet advisors and gave half of Europe to Stalin.

With war’s end, the one-worlders and social engineers swooped on a people still jittery about the Great Depression and fearful of foreign totalitarianism. (The native-born variety was widely accepted because of FDR’s mythic status.) Schools and universities became training grounds for the acolytes of socialism and amoral internationalism. Dependency on government has become deeply ingrained in the psyche of most Americans.

But not everyone is addicted to government. There are millions of Americans who want less of it — a lot less — rather than more of it. I have elsewhere analyzed the options for attaining it. The only feasible option is a national divorce. that is, a negotiated partition of the country.

The time is ripe. Lefists are chafing under rulings of the Supreme Court that defy leftist ideology. And there’s a good chance that the GOP may retake Congress and the White House in the next few years. Now is the time to act — to return at least a large portion of the country to a state of liberty — before the inevitable swing of the pendulum that returns the statist party to power.


BIBLIOGRAPHY

Books, Articles, and Posts by Other Writers

Entries are listed alphabetically by author’s last name. This is a small sample of relevant items, and it’s weighted heavily toward material that came to my attention in the weeks and months preceding the original publication of this post in 2017, and for a few years after that. If there are broken links, please report them to me at the following email address: the Germanic nickname for Friedrich followed by the surname of the 1974 Nobel laureate in economics followed by the 3rd and 4th digits of his birth year followe by @gmail.com.

Anonymous Google employee, “Reply to Public Response and Misrepresentation” (This is predictably called an “anti-diversity screed” by Gizmodo. It’s also available in “Dissent at Google” at Vox Populi, which frames it more realistically. The “screed” relies on the kinds of scientific findings about intellectual, biological, and innate behavioral differences between males and females to which I have linked many times. For a small taste of relevant research, delivered with customary flair, see Scott Alexander, “Gender Imbalances Are Mostly Not Due to Offensive Attitudes“, Slate Star Codex, August 1, 2017. As expected, the author was identified and fired for perpetuating stereotypes telling the truth. For links to many other related posts, see “Leftism As Crypto-Fascism: The Google Paradigm“.)

Charlene Adams, “Genetics, Fear, and the Slippery Slope of Moral Authoritarianism“, Quillette, September 8, 2017

Arnold Ahlert, “The American Left’s Infatuation with Communism“, The Patriot Post, August 17, 2017

———, “America’s Insulated Elites”, The Patriot Post, October 11, 2018

Ravi Ayer, “Are Liberals More Neurotic Than Conservatives?“, YourMorals Blog, February 11, 2011

Michael Bastach, “Bombshell study: Temperature Adjustments Account For ‘Nearly All Of The Warming’ In Government Climate Data“, Watts Up With That?, July 6, 2017 (see also John Hinderaker, “Is Global Warming Alarmism a Complete Fraud?“, Power Line, July 16, 2017)

———, “Trump Has Repealed Hundreds of Obama-Era Regulations“, The Daily Caller, July 20, 2017

Don Boudreaux, “Clemens and Wither Summarize Their Empirical Findings on the Minimum Wage“, Cafe Hayek, January 15, 2015

Michael Brown, “Yes, Gay Activists Want to Punish Christian Conservatives“, TownHall, July 20, 2017

Jack Cahill, “The Suffocating Puritanism of ‘Progressive’ America“, American Thinker, May 2, 2014

Bryan Caplan, “Income and Irresponsibility“, EconLog, March 13, 2015

Angelo M. Codevilla, “The Cold Civil War“, Claremont Review of Books, April 25, 2017

———, “Statism’s Violent Wages“, The American Spectator, July 24, 2017

David Cole, “Resisting the Tranny State“, Taki’s Magazine, August 1, 2017

College Fix staff, “UC-Berkeley Can’t Find ‘Available Campus Venue’ for September Ben Shapiro Event“, The College Fix, July 19, 2017

Competitive Enterprise Institute, Ten Thousand Commandments: An Annual Snapshot of the Regulatory State, 2017

Russell Cook, “An Accusation Built on a Foundation of Sand“, Gelbspanfiles.com, June 6, 2016

———, “NewsHour Global Warming Bias Tally, Updated 7/13/17: 44 to 0“, Gelbspanfiles.com, July 13, 2017

———, “Banishing Questions and/or Dissenting Viewpoints“, Watts Up With That?, July 20, 2017

David Corbin and Matt Parks, “When Hell Appears to Be Other Americans“, The Federalist, June 22, 2014

Tyler Cowen, “Academia As a Bastion of Free Speech?“, Marginal Revolution, May 15, 2014

Brian Lee Cowley, “This Report Just shredded Every Myth Claiming Canadian Medicare Is Superior — Or Fair“, National Post, July 25, 2017

Andrew J. Coulson, “State Education Trends: Academic Performance and Spending over the Past 40 Years” Cato Institute, Policy Analysis Number 746, March 18, 2014

Judith Curry, “Alarm about Alarmism“, Climate Etc., July 15, 2017

Theodore Dalrymple, “Taking Out the Rubbish“, Taki’s Magazine, March 4, 2017

———, “Let Every Taboo Fall“, Taki’s Magazine, August 5, 2017

Louise DeBroux, “Conservatives are Happier, More Generous Than Liberals“, The Patriot Post, November 6, 2019

Richard M. Doerflinger, “A Pledge Betrayed: The Obama Administration Nullifies Conscience Rights“, The Public Discourse, July 6, 2016

Dinesh D’Souza, “The Fascist Roots of the American Left“, The Daily Signal, August 3, 2017

———, “Fascism’s Karl Marx: Man the Left Doesn’t Want You to Meet“, WND, August 20, 2017

J.R. Dunn, “RefuseFascism Unmasked“, American Thinker, August 17, 2017

Friedrich Engels, “On Authority” (1872)

Melissa Fauz, “Think a Charlie Gard Situation Can’t Happen in the US? Think Again“, The Daily Signal, July 19, 2017

Bruce Frohnen, “There Is No Benedict Option” (Google cache), Nomocracy in Politics, July 1, 2015

David Gelertner, “What Explains the Vicious Left?“, Weekly Standard, January 11, 2016

Bruce Goldman, “Two Minds: The Cognitive Differences between Men and Women“, Stanford Medicine, Spring 2017

Leada Gore, “13 Alabama Counties Saw 85 Percent Drop in Food Stamp Participation after Work Requirements Restarted“, AL.com, June 13, 2017

Linda Gorman, “Minimum Wages“, The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics

Daniel Greenfield, “Anger Privilege“, Family Security Matters, June 26, 2017

———, “Massachusetts Supreme Court Rules Police Not Allowed to Follow Federal Law“, American Renaissance, July 25, 2017

———, “The Big Lie: Exposing the Nazi Roots of the American Left“, Frontpage Mag, September 7, 2017

Richard Haler, “No Voice at VOX: Sense and Nonsense about Discussing IQ and Race“, Quillette, June 11, 2017

Victor Davis Hanson, “Can a Divided America Survive?TownHall, June 15, 2017

David Harsanyi, “Be Very Worried About the Future of Free Expression“, TownHall, July 21, 2017

Michael Hart, “What Can Be Done About Political Polarization?“, American Renaissance, June 28, 2017

John Hawkins, “If You’re Conservative, Here’s Why Elite Liberals Hate Your Guts“, Townhall.com, July 1, 2017

Steven Hayward, “New Study Explodes Common Air Pollution Claims“, Power Line, June 15, 2017

Warren Henry, “Americans Are As Deluded As Our Elites“, The Federalist, June 26, 2016

Jordan Hill, “I See: Social Justice and Teachers College Curriculum“, Heterodox Academy, July 7, 2017

John Hinderaker, “Left-Wing Indoctrination in the Schools: It’s Worse Than You Think“, Power Line, July 13, 2017

———, “Google Teaming with Left-Wing Groups to Drive Conservatives Off the Internet“, Power Line, August 20, 2017

Dave Huber, “Oregon District to Drop ‘Lynch’ from School Names Due to ‘Racial Implications’“, The College Fix, July 31, 2017

Rud Istvan, “Why Climate Models Run Hot“, Watts Up With That?, July 6, 2017

Scott Johnson, “Our Leading Hate GroupPower Line, June 25, 2017)

———, “The Socialist Temptation“, Power Line, July 2, 2017

———, “The Romance of Soviet Stooges“, Power Line, July 3, 2017

Lee Jussim, “Gender Bias in Science or Biased Claims of Gender Bias?” Rabble Rouser, July 8, 2017

———, “Gender Bias in Science?“, Rabble Rouser, July 14, 2017

———, “What’s With the Emerging Gender Gap in Social Psychology?“, Rabble Rouser, July 18, 2017

———, “Why Brilliant Girls Tend to Prefer Non-STEM Careers“, Rabble Rouser, July 20, 2017

Jack Kerwick, “The Right Changes to Fight Leftist Violence“, TownHall, June 12, 2017

James Kirchick, “Remember All Those Left-Wing Pundits Who Drooled Over Venezuela?“, Los Angeles Times, August 2, 2017

Joseph Klein, “New York Times’ Destroy-Trump Agenda Disclosed“, Frontpage Mag, October 11, 2017

Arnold Kling, “Our New Technocratic Masters“, askblog, February 3, 2013

———, The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divides, Washington: Libertarianism.org, 2017

———, “Now vs. Then“, askblog, June 12, 2017

Joel Kotkin, “Why Socialism Is Back“, RealClearPolitics, June 29, 2017

David Krayden, “Report Says Canada’s Socialized Medicine Failing Canadians“, The Daily Caller, July 3, 2017

———, “Multiculturalism Director Plans Segregated Dorm for Black Women“, The Daily Caller, August 4, 2017

Johnathan V. Last, “Camille Paglia: On Trump, Democrats, Transgenderism, and Islamist TerrorNational Review, June 15, 2017

Robert A. Levy and William Mellor, The Dirty Dozen: How Twelve Supreme Court Cases Radically Expanded Government and Eroded Freedom, New York: Sentinel, 2008

Thomas Lifson, “Science Fights Back Against the Global Warming Fraud“, American Thinker, June 11, 2017

Jeffrey Lord, “Unmasked: America’s Real Fascists“, The American Spectator, June 26, 2018

Kaylee McGhee, “A Millennial Explains: Why We Melt“, The Detroit News, July 11, 2017

John O. McGinnis, “Why the Academy Will Remain Mostly Unwelcoming to the Right“, Library of Law & Liberty, July 23, 2017

David Middleton, “The World Keeps Not Running Out of Oil“, Watts Up With That?, July 10, 2017

Shawn Mitchell, “Searching for the Authoritarian Trump“, American Greatness, May 8, 2018

Rick Moran, “Blue States Looking to Bypass Washington on Climate Change“, American Thinker, July 2, 2017

———, “Crime Rate Plummets When Phoenix Drops Sanctuary City Policies“, American Thinker, July 3, 2017

George T. Mundy, “Hiding from the Sun: Gender Ideology’s Attack on Truth“, Public Discourse, July 17, 2017

Michael Oakeshott, Rationalism in Politics and Other Essays, Indianapolis: Liberty Press, 1991

Pamela Pareske, “Moral Pollution in Place of Reasoned Critique“, Quillette, October 14, 2018

PBS Newshour, “The President’s Defense“, January 20, 1999

Mark J. Perry, “New Chart Illustrates Graphically the Racial Preferences for Blacks, Hispanics Being Admitted to US Medical Schools“, Carpe Diem, June 25, 2017

Greg Piper, “‘World’s Most Famous Atheist’ Booted from Berkeley Because of His ‘Hurtful Speech’ on Islam“, The College Fix, July 21, 2017

Ramesh Ponnuru, “There’s No Brain Science to College Free Speech“, Bloomberg View, July 18, 2017

Jim Powell, FDR’s Folly, New York: Three Rivers Press, 2003

Mark Pulliam, “Americans With Disabilities Act: An Epic Tragedy of Good Intentions“, Library of Law & Liberty, July 27, 2017

———, “A Demagogic Bully” (about the Southern Poverty Law Center’s smear tactics), City Journal, July 27, 2017

John J. Ray, “The American Roots of Fascism, John Ray’s Documents, May 20, 2006

———, “Modern Leftism As Recycled Fascism“, John Ray’s Documents, June 6, 2006

———, “Leftist Projection and Inability to Learn“, Dissecting Leftism, March 15, 2016

———, “Hitler Was a Socialist“, May 2016

———, “The Contented versus the Discontented People“, Dissecting Leftism, August 7, 2016

———, “More Nonsense Reseearch on IQ. Are High IQ People More Racist?“, Dissecting Leftism, August 1, 2017

——— (curator), “Hitler Was a Leftist” (an archive of material compiled by Michael Miller)

———, “America’s Melting Pot and America’s Muslims“, Dissecting Leftism, September 6, 2017

Eric Raymond, “The Elephant in the Bath-House“, Armed and Dangerous, June 16, 2002

———, “Gramscian Damage“, Armed and Dangerous, February 11, 2006

Fred Reed (a populist, not a conservative), “Internal Secession and the Road to Ruin: Two Countries“, Fred on Everything, February 16, 2017

———, “Oncoming Racial Doom: The Clash of Cultures“, Fred on Everything, June 15, 2017

Jean-François Revel, Last Exit to Utopia: The Survival of Socialism in a Post-Soviet Era, New York: Encounter Books, 2000

Christine Roe, “From Cactus Theater to the Met, US Pours Hundreds of Millions into Well-Heeled Arts“, The Daily Signal, July 15, 2017

Francis Rooney, “What Happened to the First Amendment?“, Townhall, July 4, 2017

James Rothwell, “Charlie Hebdo Runs Image of Decapitated Theresa May on Front Page and Mocks London Bridge Terror Victims, The Telegraph, June 8, 2017

Nathan Rubbelke, “Students Decry UCLA’s Ouster of Conservative Professor: ‘Disheartening, Infuriating, Baseless’“, The College Fix, July 20, 2017

Austin Ruse, “How the LGBT Movement Used Fake Science to Push Gay Marriage“, The Daily Signal, July 21, 2017

Charles Rutter, “It’s All Over for UK Science: University Professors Afraid to Teach Controversial Subjects for Fear of Being Sacked“, Watts Up With That?, January 7, 2017

———, “New Study Claims to Expose the ‘Science Charade’ behind some EPA Regulations“, Watts Up With That?, July 4, 2017

———, “Green Cronyism Gone Wild: It Looks Like the State of California Is Bailing Out Tesla“, Watt’s Up With That?, July 19, 2017

Steve Sailer, “Here We Go Round the Mulberry Bush Again“, The Unz Review, July 19, 2017

———, “The Zeroeth Amendment“, Taki’s Magazine, July 19, 2017

Robert J. Samuelson, “The Administrative State is Huge, and It’s Only Getting Bigger“, The Washington Post, March 5, 2017

Ned Ryun, “The Real Threat to Our Republic Is the Orwellian Antifa“, The Hill, August 27, 2017

Roger Scruton, An Intelligent Person’s Guide to Modern Culture, South Bend, Indiana: St. Augustine’s Press, 2000

———,. Fools, Frauds and Firebrands: Thinkers of the New Left, London: Bloomsbury, 2015

Fred Siegel, The Revolt Against the Masses: How Liberalism Has Undermined the Middle Class, New York: Encounter Books, 2013

Matthew Small, “Racial Slurs and Deferential Condescension“, Quillette, November 7, 2019

Thomas Sowell, Civil Rights: Rhetoric or Reality?, New York, William Morrow and Company, 1984

———, A Conflict of Visions: Ideological Origins of Political Struggles, New York: William Morrow and Company, 1987

———, “Don’t Get Weak“, National Review, May 1, 2007 (reposted at The Free Republic, June 2, 2007)

———, Intellectuals and Society, New York: Basic Books, 2010

Roy Spencer, “Stephen Hawking Flies Off the Scientific Reservation“, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., July 3, 2017

Matthew Stein, “Attacked by ‘Militant LGBT Students,’ Professor Resigns“, The College Fix, July 21,2017

Sean Stevens, “The Fearless Speech Index: Who Is Afraid to Speak, and Why?“, Heterodox Academy, July 19, 2017

Grant Strobl, “This Nationwide Program Is Teaching Millions of Students to Become Leftist Snowflakes“, The Daily Signal, August 14, 2017

Carol Swain, “Why Did the Democratic South Become Republican?“, FrontpageMag (video from Prager University), July 31, 2017

John Tamny, “What’s Wrong With Inequality?Library of Law & Liberty, March 6, 2017

Jeffrey Taylor, “Leftist Hypocrisy about Islam: Setting the Stage for Violence“, Quillette, July 19, 2017

Timothy Taylor, “The Transition to Transfer Payment Government“, Conversable Economist, July 1, 2016

Tony Thomas, “Surely You’re Crying, Mr. Feynman“, Quadrant Online, June 28, 2017

James Thompson, “Micro-Aggression and Hyper-Sensitivity“, The Unz Review, March 28, 2017

Srdja Trifkovic “FDR and Mussolini: A Tale of Two Fascists”, Chronicles, August 2000

Emmett Tyrell, “When Institutions Go Left“, TownHall, July 20, 2017

Robert Vergruggen, “A Groundbreaking Minimum Wage Study“, National Review, June 26, 2016

Anthony Watts, “A Primer on the Hatred of Climate Skeptics — One Woman Saw the Light and Is No Longer a Leftist“, Watts Up With That?, March 5, 2017

Adam J. White, “Google.gov“, The New Atlantis, Spring 2018

Tim Worstall, “Facebook’s Sheryl Sandberg Wrong Here — Just Paying Women More Won’t Close the Gender Pay Gap“, Forbes, July 31, 2017

Scott Yenor, “The Rolling Revolution in Sex and Gender: A History“, Public Discourse, July 31, 2017


Wikipedia Articles

This is a small sample of the many relevant articles that are cited in this post and others about leftism.

Brian Williams” (media bias)

Committee of Public Safety

Doublespeak

Killian Documents Controversy” (more media bias)

Left-Wing Politics

Liberté, égalité, fraternité” (Origins during the French Revolution)

Ratchet Effect

Maximillien Robespierre

Red Guards (China)

Reign of Terror

Slippery Slope

Is There a Right to Privacy?

It depends on what you’re trying to keep private.

I have never quite understood what “privacy” means in the context of the debate about abortion. As far as I can tell, the Supreme Court in Roe v. Wade Court did nothing more than say that a decision about abortion is a “private” decision — one that should be made by the prospective mother, barring exceptional circumstances. “Private”, in that sense, really means “autonomous” (a justification made with slightly more clarity by the Court in Planned Parenthood v. Casey).

Perhaps as a result of Roe, “privacy” has in the past several decades become something of a fetish. The result is a stupendous stack of laws and regulations that purport to protect “privacy”.

What is it? And is there a right to it?

The desire for privacy can be thought of the desire to keep information about oneself from the eyes and ears of others, for various reasons:

  • One reason would be to avoid embarrassment.

  • Another reason would be to avoid being a victim of a criminal act (e.g., extortion, fraud, or theft).

  • A third reason, which has no legal support, would be to avoid being the target of a criminal prosecution. (An illegal act conducted in privacy — such as an unwitnessed murder — is still an illegal act.)

  • A fourth reason — and the one that now seems to be most prevalent — is simply a desire for privacy for its own sake.

Here’s my assessment of the reasons:

  • There is no natural or constitutional right to avoid embarrassment. It is an unavoidable and unpreventable consequence of being a social animal.

  • Regarding extortion, fraud, theft, etc., the operative word isn’t “privacy”, it’s “secrecy” in the defense of one’s reputation and property. Extortion, fraud, theft, etc., involve access to things like a victim’s medical history, court records, social security number, and passwords. Keeping such things secret is essential to the avoidance of extortion, etc. But such information can be kept secret without keeping it private; that is, such information (with the possible exception of passwords) is recorded by and accessible to official parties, who are only allowed to release such information under conditions that (presumably) preclude their use for criminal purposes.

  • What about passwords? You keep them secret (or you should) for the sake of security. (They are not mere foibles that might embarrass you.) But, even then, you will (if you are prudent) tell someone how to find them if you are incapacitated or die.

  • I have already dismissed the foolish idea that an act conducted in private is defensible under the rubric of privacy.

That leaves me with the question of whether there is a right to privacy for its own sake. Having disposed of embarrassment, the avoidance of victimhood, and criminality, is anything left to discuss? What might be considered private that doesn’t fit into one of those categories?

One’s thoughts and feelings. Why should they be kept “private”? Because their exposure might embarrass one, or lay one open to a criminal charge, or give away information that might lead to extortion, etc.? But, as I’ve already explained, none of that has anything to do with privacy.

In sum, the mythical right to privacy boils down to nothing more than self-restraint: Don’t blab about thoughts and feelings that you don’t want others to know. That’s not a right, it’s a simple piece of advice that’s honored mainly in the breach.

P.S. If there could be right to privacy for its own sake, why couldn’t there be a right to a Lamborghini, a villa on the Mediterranean, or eternal life for its own sake?

Natural Rights, Liberty, the Golden Rule, and Leviathan

Going beyond the “harm principle”.

Natural rights arise from voluntary and enduring social relationships. They are natural because they represent the accommodations that human beings make with each other in order to coexist peacefully and to their mutual benefit. (Natural rights, as I define them, are not the same thing as the kind of “natural rights” that many philosophers, political theorists, mystics, and opportunistic politicians claim to find hovering in human beings like Platonic essences. See this, this, this, and this, for example.)

Natural rights, in sum, are the interpersonal claims that people (generally) agree upon and (mainly) observe in their daily interactions. The claims can be negative (e.g., do not kill, except in self-defense) or positive (e.g., children must be clothed, fed, and taught about rights). For reasons discussed later, such claims are valid and generally honored even if there isn’t a superior power (a chieftain, monarch, or state apparatus) to enforce them.

Liberty is the condition in which agreed rights are generally observed, and enforced when they are violated. Liberty, in other words, is the condition of peaceful, willing coexistence and its concomitant: beneficially cooperative behavior.

Peaceful, willing coexistence does not imply “an absence of constraints, impediments, or interference”, which is a standard definition of liberty. Rather, it implies that there is necessarily a degree of compromise (voluntary constraint) for the sake of beneficially cooperative behavior. Even happy marriages are replete with voluntary constraints on behavior, constraints that enable the partners to enjoy the blessings of union.

That’s all there is to it. Liberty isn’t a nirvana-like state of euphoria; it’s just what everyday life is like when people are able to coexist peacefully, perhaps under the aegis of a superior power which does nothing more than ensure that they are able to do so.

The persistence of natural rights and liberty among a people is fostered primarily by mutual trust, respect, and forbearance. Punishment of violations of rights (and therefore of liberty) helps, too, as long as the punishment is generally agreed upon and applied quickly and consistently.

Natural rights, as discussed thus far, are distinct from “rights” (sometimes called “natural rights”) that people demand of a superior power, or which are imposed by a superior power. See, for example, the UN Declaration of Human Rights, which is a wish-list of things that people are “entitled” to. Any leftist worth the name would heartily endorse the list, and add to it.

Such “rights” are really privileges. Government can (and sometimes does) recognize and protect natural rights, but it doesn’t manufacture them. The Bill of Rights, for example, consists of a hodge-podge of actual rights as they were then understood (e.g., the right to bear arms for self-defense) and privileges (e.g., the “right” to withhold information from a court of law so as not to admit one’s guilt). Some of the latter are special dispensations made necessary by the existence of government itself; that is, they are promises made by the government to shield the people from its superior power.

As mentioned in passing earlier, natural rights fall into two categories: negative and positive. Negative rights are those that can be exercised without requiring anything of others but reciprocal forbearance [1]. Wikipedia puts it this way:

Adrian has a negative right to x against Clay if and only if Clay is prohibited from acting upon Adrian in some way regarding x…. A case in point, if Adrian has a negative right to life against Clay, then Clay is required to refrain from killing Adrian….

To spin out the example, there is a negative right not to be harmed (killed, in this case) as long as Clay is forbidden to kill Adrian, Adrian is forbidden to kill Clay, both are forbidden to kill others, and others are forbidden to kill anyone. This is a widely understood and accepted negative right. But it is not an unconditional right. There are also widely understood and accepted exceptions to it, such as killing in self-defense.

In any event, the textbook explanation of negative rights, such as the one given by Wikipedia, is appealing. But it is simplistic, like John Stuart Mill’s harm principle.

It seems obvious that a person shouldn’t be harmed as long as he is doing no harm to others, which is the essence of Wikipedia‘s explanation. But “harm” is the operative word. Harm isn’t an abstraction; it’s a real thing — many real things — with concrete meanings. And those concrete meanings arise from social interactions and the norms born of them.

For example, “libertarians” (hereinafter without sneer quotes) consider it a negative right to be able to sell one’s home to another person without interference by one’s neighbors (or by the state acting on their behalf). One’s neighbors must forbear intervention, just as the seller must forbear intervention against the sales of the neighbors’ homes. But intervention may be necessary to prevent harm.

The part that libertarians usually get wrong is forbearance. Libertarians assume forbearance. They assume forbearance because they assume away — or simply ignore — the possibility that a voluntary transaction between two parties may result in direct harm to third parties.

But what if the buyer of a home is an absentee owner who will rent rooms to all and sundry (resulting in parking problems, loud parties, an eyesore property, etc.)? Libertarians reject zoning as an infringement on the negative right of property ownership. So what are put-upon neighbors supposed to do about the absentee landlord who rents rooms to all and sundry? Well, the neighbors can always complain to the city government if things get out of hand, can’t they? Yes, but in the meantime harm will have been done, and the police may not be able to put a stop to it unless the harm actually violates a statute or ordinance that the police and courts are willing and able to enforce without being attacked as racist pigs, or some such thing.

Does the libertarian conception of negative rights have room in it for homeowners’ associations that actually allow neighborhoods to define harm, as it applies to their particular circumstances, and act to prevent it? In my experience, the libertarian conception of negative property rights — thou shalt not interfere in the sale of a house — has become enshrined in statutes and ordinances that de-fang homeowners’ associations, making them powerless to prevent harm by enforcing restrictive covenants (e.g., against renting rooms) that libertarians decry as infringements of negative rights.

The only negative rights worthy of the name are specific rights that are recognized within a voluntary and enduring association of persons [2]. Violations of those rights undermine the fabric of mutual trust and mutual forbearance that enable a people to coexist in beneficial, voluntary cooperation. That — not some imaginary nirvana — is liberty.

By the same token, a voluntary and enduring association of persons can recognize positive rights. That is to say, positive rights — those broadly accepted as part and parcel of peaceful, willing coexistence and its concomitant: beneficially cooperative behavior — are just as much an aspect of liberty as are negative rights. (Doctrinaire libertarians, who aren’t really libertarians, mistakenly decry all positive rights as antithetical to liberty.)

Returning to the Wikipedia article quoted above, and the example of Adrian and Clay,

Adrian has a positive right to x against Clay if and only if Clay is obliged to act upon Adrian in some way regarding x…. [I]f Adrian has a positive right to life against Clay, then Clay is required to act as necessary to preserve the life of Adrian.

Negative and positive rights are compatible with each other in the context of the Golden Rule, the ethic of reciprocity: One should treat others as one would expect others to treat oneself. This is a truly natural law, for reasons to which I will come.

The Golden Rule can be expanded into two, complementary sub-rules:

  • Do no harm to others, lest they do harm to you.

  • Be kind and charitable to others, and they will be kind and charitable to you.

The first sub-rule fosters negative rights. The second sub-rule fosters positive rights. But, as discussed earlier, the rights in question are specific — not abstract injunctions — because they are understood and recognized in the context of voluntary and enduring social relationships.

I call the Golden Rule a natural law because it’s neither a logical construct (e.g., the “given-if-then” formulation discussed here) nor a state-imposed one. Its long history and widespread observance (if only vestigial nowadays) suggests that it embodies an understanding that arises from the similar experiences of human beings across time and place. The resulting behavioral convention, the ethic of reciprocity, arises from observations about the effects of one’s behavior on that of others, and mutual agreement (tacit or otherwise) to reciprocate preferred behavior in the service of self-interest and empathy.

That is to say, the convention is a consequence of the observed and anticipated benefits of adhering to it. Those benefits accrue not only to the person who complies with the Golden Rule in a particular situation (the benefactor), but also to the person (or persons) who benefit from compliance (the beneficiary). The consequences of compliance don’t usually redound immediately to the benefactor, but they redound indirectly over the long run because the benefactor (and many more like him) do their part to preserve the convention. It follows that the immediate impetus for observance of the convention is a mixture of two considerations: (a) an understanding of the importance of preserving the convention and (b) empathy on the part of the benefactor toward the beneficiary.

The Golden Rule will be widely observed within a group only if the members of the group are (a) generally agreed about the definition of harm, (b) value kindness and charity (in the main), and (c) perhaps most importantly, see that their acts have beneficial consequences. If those conditions are not met, the Golden Rule descends from convention to slogan.

Is the Golden Rule susceptible of varying interpretations across groups, and is it therefore a vehicle for moral relativism? Yes, with qualifications. It’s true that groups vary in their conceptions of permissible behavior. For example, the idea of allowing, encouraging, or aiding the death of old persons is not everywhere condemned. (Many — with whom I wouldn’t choose to coexist voluntarily — embrace it as a concomitant of a government-run or government-regulated health-care “system” that treats the delivery of medical services as matter of rationing.) Infanticide has a long history in many cultures; modern, “enlightened” cultures have simply replaced it with abortion [3]. Slavery is still an acceptable practice in some places, though those enslaved (as in the past) usually are outsiders. Homosexuality has a long history of condemnation, and occasional acceptance. (To be pro-homosexual nowadays — and especially to favor homosexual “marriage” — has joined the litany of “causes” that connote membership in the tribe of “enlightened” “progressives” [a.k.a., “liberals”, leftists, and “the woke”], along with being for abortion [i.e., pre-natal infanticide] and against the consumption of fossil fuels — except for one’s air travel, large residences, yacht, and SUVs, of course.)

The foregoing recitation suggests a mixture of reasons for favoring or disfavoring various behaviors, that is, regarding them as beneficial or harmful. Those reasons range from utilitarianism (calculated weighing of costs and benefits) to status-signaling. In between, there are religious and consequentialist reasons for favoring or disfavoring various behaviors. Consequentialist reasoning goes like this: Behavior X can be indulged responsibly and without harm to others, but there a strong risk that it will not be indulged responsibly, or that it will lead to behavior Y, which has repercussions for others. Therefore, it’s better to put X off-limits, or to severely restrict and monitor it.

Consequentialist reasoning applies to abortion (which is on the slippery slope to involuntary euthanasia); homosexuality (a depraved, risky practice — especially among males — which can ensnare impressionable young persons who see it as an easy way to satisfy sexual urges); transgenderism (a dangerous fad with tragic outcomes foisted upon impressionable children); alcohol and drug addiction (which carries high costs, for the addict, the addict’s family, and sometimes for innocent bystanders). In the absence of pseudo-libertarian propaganda (spread by left-dominated media) and of governmental edicts to the contrary, long-standing negative attitudes toward such behaviors would prevail in most places [4].

The exceptions discussed above to the contrary notwithstanding, there’s a mainstream interpretation of the Golden Rule — one that still holds in many places — which prohibits certain kinds of behavior, except in extreme situations, and permits certain other kinds of behavior. There is, in other words, a “core” Golden Rule that comes down to this:

  • Killing is wrong, except in self-defense. (Capital punishment is just that: punishment. It’s also a deterrent to murder. It isn’t “murder,” muddle-headed defenders of baby-murder to the contrary notwithstanding.)

  • Various kinds of unauthorized “takings” are wrong, including theft (outright and through deception). (This explains popular resistance to government “takings” ,especially when it’s done on behalf of private parties. The view that it’s all right to borrow money from a bank and not repay it arises from the mistaken beliefs that (a) it’s not tantamount to theft and (b) it harms no one because banks can “afford it”.)

  • Libel and slander are wrong because they are “takings” by word instead of deed.

  • It is wrong to turn spouse against spouse, child against parent, or friend against friend. (And yet, such things are commonly portrayed in books, films, and plays as if they are normal occurrences, often desirable ones. And it seems to me that reality increasingly mimics “art”.)

  • It is right to be pleasant and kind to others, even under provocation, because “a mild answer breaks wrath: but a harsh word stirs up fury” (Proverbs 15:1).

  • Charity is a virtue, but it should begin at home, where the need is most certain and the good deed is most likely to have its intended effect. (Leftists turn a virtue into an imposition when they insist that “charity” — as in income redistribution — is a proper job of government.)

None of these observations would be surprising to a person raised in the Judeo-Christian tradition, or even in the less vengeful branches of Islam. The observations would be especially unsurprising to an American who was raised in a rural, small-town, or small-city setting, well removed from a major metropolis, or who was raised in an ethnic enclave in a major metropolis. For it is such persons and, to some extent, their offspring who are the principal heirs and keepers of the Golden Rule in America.

An ardent individualist — particularly an anarcho-capitalist — might insist that social comity can be based on the negative sub-rule, which is represented by the first five items in the “core” list. I doubt it. There’s but a short psychological distance from mean-spiritedness — failing to be kind and charitable — to sociopathy, a preference for harmful acts. Ardent individualists will disagree with me because they view kindness and charity as their business, and no one else’s. They’re right about that, but kindness and charity are nevertheless indispensable to the development of mutual trust among people who live in an enduring social relationship. Without mutual trust, mutual restraint becomes problematic and co-existence becomes a matter of “getting the other guy before he gets you” — a convention that I hereby dub the Radioactive Rule.

Nevertheless, the positive sub-rule, which is represented by the final two items in the “core” list, can be optional for the occasional maverick. An extreme individualist (or introvert or grouch) could be a member in good standing of a society that lives by the Golden Rule. He would be a punctilious practitioner of the negative rule, and would not care that his unwillingness to offer kindness and charity resulted in coldness toward him. Coldness is all that he would receive (and want) because, as a punctilious practitioner of the negative rule; his actions wouldn’t necessarily invite harm.

But the presence of too many extreme individualists would threaten the delicate balance of self-interested and voluntarily beneficial behavior that’s implied in the Golden Rule. Even if lives and livelihoods did not depend on acts of kindness and charity — and they probably would — mistrust would set it in. And from there, it would be a short distance to the Radioactive Rule: Everyone for himself and the world be damned.

Of course, the delicate balance would be upset if the Golden Rule were violated with impunity. For that reason, it must be backed by sanctions. Non-physical sanctions would range from reprimands to ostracism. For violations of the negative sub-rule, imprisonment and corporal punishment would not be out of the question.

Now comes a dose of reality. Enduring social and cultural relationships of the kind in which the Golden Rule can thrive are possible only for a group of about 25 to 150 persons: the size of a hunter-gatherer band or Hutterite colony. It seems that a group loses its cohension when it is much larger than 150 persons. Why should that happen? Because mutual trust, mutual respect, and mutual forbearance — the things implied in the Golden Rule — depend very much on personal connections. A person who is loathe to say a harsh word to an acquaintance, friend, or family member — even when provoked — often waxes abusive toward strangers, especially in this era of e-mail and comment threads, where face-to-face encounters aren’t involved.

More generally, it’s a human tendency to treat family members, friends, and co-religionists differently than strangers; the former are accorded more trust, more cooperation, and more kindness than the latter. Why? Because there’s usually a difference between the consequences of behavior that’s directed toward strangers and the consequences of behavior that’s directed toward persons one knows, lives among, and depends upon for restraint, cooperation, and help. The allure of  doing harm without penalty (“getting away with something”) or receiving without giving (“getting something for nothing”)  becomes harder to resist as one’s social distance from others increases.

The preference of like for like is derided by libertarians and leftists as tribalism, which is like the pot calling the kettle black. There’s no one who is more tribal than a leftist, who weighs every word spoken by another person to ensure that person’s alignment with the left’s current dogmas. (Libertarians have it easier, inasmuch as most of them are loners by disposition, and thrive on contrariness.) But the preference of like for like is quite rational: Cooperation and help include mutual defense (and concerted attack, in the case of leftists).

When cohesion breaks down, it becomes necessary to spin off a new group or — as is mainly the case — to establish a central power (a state) to establish and enforce rules of behavior (negative and positive). The problem, of course, is that those vested with the power of the state quickly learn to use it to advance their own preferences and interests, and to perpetuate their power by granting favors to those who can keep them in office. It is a rare state that is created for the sole purpose of protecting its citizens from one another (as the referee of last resort) and from outsiders, and rarer still is the state that remains true to such purposes.

In sum, the Golden Rule — as a uniting way of life — is quite unlikely to survive the passage of a group from a self-governing community to a component of a state. Nor does the Golden Rule as a uniting way of life have much chance of revival or survival where the state already dominates. The Golden Rule may operate within non-kinship groups (e.g., parishes, clubs, ethnic enclaves) by regulating the interactions among the members of such groups. It may have a vestigial effect on face-to-face interactions between stranger and stranger, but that effect arises in part from the fear of giving offense that will be met with hostility or harm, not from a communal bond.

In any event, the dominance of the state distorts behavior. For example, the state may enable and encourage acts (e.g., abortion, homosexuality) that had been discouraged as harmful by group norms. And the state will diminish the ability of members of a group to bestow charity on one another through the loss of income to taxes and the displacement of private charity by state-run schemes that mimic charity (e.g., Social Security).

The all-powerful state destroys liberty, even while sometimes defending it. This is done not just by dictating how people must live their lives, which is bad enough. It is also done by eroding the social bonds that liberty is built upon — the bonds that secure peaceful, willing coexistence and its concomitant: beneficially cooperative behavior.

A national divorce that separates the nation into big-government and smaller-government spheres would be a good thing, especially for the citizens of the smaller-government portion (Freedomland). But it wouldn’t restore the primacy of voluntary associations of people with common values. That rebirth of liberty, if it ever came, would come only after a long and disputatious struggle (even within Freedomland) between those who are willing and able to govern themselves and those who are constitutionally incapble of allowing others to do so.

Barring a national divorce and the good fruit that it might bear, the United States is bound to continue as it has been going for the past 120-some years, since the onset of the so-called Progressive Era. From then until now, there has been a continous tug-of-war between competing factions for the power to dictate how the whole nation conducts its affairs. The outcome — an Orwellian dystopia — is inevitable when the stronger side in the tug-of war-is the side that owns a near-monopoly on information, business, and governmental power. The only thing keeping the dystopia at bay is that the outcome of tug-of-war hangs in the balance — for now.
__________
1. Here is a summary of negative rights by Randy Barnett:

A libertarian … favors the rigorous protection of certain individual rights that define the space within which people are free to choose how to act. These fundamental rights consist of (1) the right of private property, which includes the property one has in one’s own person; (2) the right of freedom of contract by which rights are transferred by one person to another; (3) the right of first possession, by which property comes to be owned from an unowned state; (4) the right to defend oneself and others when fundamental rights are being threatened; and (5) the right to restitution or compensation from those who violate another’s fundamental rights. [“Is the Constitution Libertarian?”, Georgetown Public Law Research Paper No. 1432854 (posted at SSRN July 14, 2009), p. 3]

Borrowing from and elaborating on Barnett’s list, I come to the following set of negative rights:

  • freedom from force and fraud (including the right of self-defense against force)

  • property ownership (including the right of first possession)

  • freedom of contract (including contracting to employ/be employed)

  • freedom of association and movement

  • restitution or compensation for violations of the foregoing rights.

This set of negative rights would obtain in a state which devolves political decisions to the level of socially cohesive groups, while serving only as the defender of such rights (in the last resort) against domestic and foreign predators.

2. The United States today (and for a very long time) is nothing like a voluntary and enduring association of persons; it is a geopolitical entity bound by the coercive power of its central government. The States and amost all municipalities within them are the same on a smaller scale. Enduring, voluluntary associations may be found in small communities (especially those bound by a common religion and ethic roots), though many of their cherished tenets have been and will be made moot by the dictates of the central government and its lesser clones.

3. Abortion is excused as a “right”, but whence the right? Legally, in the United States, it was a matter of judicial casuistry that invoked vague essences (“privacy” and liberty”). (That it will not be banned outright in any State, perhaps with narrow exceptions, testifies to the messiness of governing more than a small group of persons bound in a long, voluntary association.) In ordinary discourse (and high-pitched protests) abortion is excused by illogical emoting. There is “a woman’s right to choose”, but the intended choice is murder. And there is “a woman’s right to control her own body”, which isn’t her own body but that of another living human being who, in almost every case, was conceived by a voluntary act whose possible consequence (pregnancy) was known to the woman before she undertook the act.

4. The glaring exception is the unrelenting campaign against smoking, which is reinforced by taxes and government edicts against smoking almost everywhere but in one’s own home. This phenomenon is understandable, however, as a form of class warfare, as in “I am an educated person with a high income, and I not only want to make myself feel superior to the working/smoking class but also to avail myself of an opportunity to rub their noses in my superiority.”

The Bad News about Economic Growth: An Addendum

It can happen here.

In “The Bad News about Economic Growth”, I note the dire implications of my (robust) equation relating economic growth in the U.S. to four explanatory variables:

What does the equation portend for the next 10 years? Based on the most recent values of [the four variables], the real rate of growth for the next 10 years will be about -6 percent. Yes, that’s minus 6 percent!

I have added this:

Is such a thing possible in the United States? Yes! The estimates of inflation-adjusted GDP available at the website of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (an official arm of the U.S. government) yield these frightening statistics: Constant-dollar GDP dropped at an annualized rate of -9.3 percent from 1929 to 1932, and at an annualized rate of -7.4 percent from 1929 to 1933.

Intuition vs. Rationality

Rationality (the plodding search for “truth”) is over-rated.

To quote myself:

[I]ntuition [is] a manifestation of intelligence, not a cause of it. To put it another way, intuition is not an emotion; it is the opposite of emotion.

Intuition is reasoning at high speed. For example, a skilled athlete knows where and when to make a move (e.g., whether and where to swing at a pitched ball) because he subconsciously makes the necessary calculations, which he could not make consciously in the split-second that is available to him once the pitcher releases the ball.

Intuition is the aspect of reasoning (rationality) that is missing from “reason” — the cornerstone of the Enlightenment. The Enlightenment’s proponents and defenders are always going on about the power of logic applied to facts, and how that power brought mankind (or mankind in the West, at least) out of the benighted Middle Ages (via the Renaissance) and into the light of Modernity.

But “reason” of the kind associated with the Enlightenment is of the plodding variety, whereby “truth” is revealed at the conclusion of deliberate, conscious processes (e.g., the scientific method). But those processes are susceptible of error because they rest on often-mistaken “facts” and assumptions that are hidden from view, sometimes even unwittingly but all too often wittingly, as in the case of “climate change“.

Science, for all of its value to mankind, requires abstraction from reality. That is to say, it is reductionist. A good analogy is the arbitrary division of continuous social and scientific processes into discrete eras (the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, etc.). This ought to be a warning that mere abstractions are often, and mistakenly, taken as “facts”.

Reductionism makes it possible to “prove” almost anything by hiding errors and assumptions (wittingly or not) behind labels. Thus: x + y = z only when x and y are strictly defined and commensurate. Otherwise, x and y cannot be summed, or their summation can result in many correct values other than z. Further, as in the notable case of “climate change”, it is easy to assume (from bias or error) that z is determined only by x and y, when there are good reasons to believe that it is also determined by other factors: known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns.

Such things happen because human beings are ineluctably emotional and biased creatures, and usually unaware of how their emotions and biases affect their reasoning. The Enlightenment’s proponents and defenders are no more immune from emotion and bias than the “lesser” beings whom they presume to lecture about rationality.

The plodding search for “answers” is, furthermore, inherently circumscribed because it dismisses or minimizes the vital role played by unconscious deliberation. How many times have you found the answer to a question, a problem, or a puzzle by putting aside your deliberate, conscious search for the answer, only to have it come to you in a “Eureka!” moment sometime later (perhaps after a nap or good night’s sleep). That’s your brain at work in ways that aren’t well understood.

This process (to put too fine a word on it) is known as combinatorial play. Its importance has been acknowledged by many creative persons. Combinatorial play can be thought of as slow-motion intuition, where the brain takes some time to assemble (unconsciously) existing knowledge into an answer to a question, a problem, or a puzzle.

There is also fast-motion intuition, an example of which I invoked in the quotation at the top of this post: the ability of a batter to calculate in a split-second where a pitch will be when it reaches him. Other examples abound, including such vital ones as the ability of drivers to maneuver lethal objects in infinitely varied and often treacherous conditions. Much is made of the number of fatal highway accidents; too little is made of their relative infrequency given the billions of daily opportunities for their occurrence.  Imagine the carnage if drivers relied on plodding “reason” instead of fast-motion intuition.

The plodding version of “reason” that has been celebrated since the Enlightenment is therefore just one leg of a triad: thinking quickly and unconsciously, thinking somewhat less quickly and unconsciously, and thinking slowly and consciously.

Wasn’t it ever thus? Of course it was. Which means that the Enlightenment and its sequelae have merely fetishized one mode of dealing with the world and its myriad uncertainties. I would have said arriving at the truth, but it is well known (except by ignorant science-idolaters) that scientific “knowledge” is provisional and ever-changing. (Just think of the many things that were supposed to be bad for you but are now supposed to be good for you, and conversely.)

I am not a science-denier by any means. But scientific “knowledge” must be taken with copious quantities of salt because it is usually inadequate in the face of messy reality. A theoretical bridge, for example, may hold up under theoretical conditions, but it is likely to collapse when built in the real world, where there is much uncertainty about present and future conditions (e.g., the integrity of materials, adherence to best construction practices, soil conditions, the cumulative effects of traffic). An over-built bridge — the best kind — is one that allows wide margins of error for such uncertainties. The same is true of planes, trains, automobiles, buildings, and much else that our lives depend on. All such things fail less frequently than in the past not only because of the advance of knowledge but also because greater material affluence enables the use of designs and materials that afford wider margins of error.

In any event, too little credit is given to the other legs of reason’s triad: fast-motion and slow-motion intuition. Any good athlete, musician, or warrior will attest the the value former. I leave it to Albert Einstein to attest to the value of the latter,

combinatory [sic] play seems to be the essential feature in productive thought — before there is any connection with logical construction in words or other kinds of signs which can be communicated to others….

[F]ull consciousness is a limit case which can never be fully accomplished. This seems to me connected with the fact called the narrowness of consciousness.

The Left-"Libertarian" Axis

With friends like libertarians, liberty needs no enemies.

I long ago concluded that the path to liberty is found in conservatism, not in what is (wrongly) called “libertarianism”. By conservatism I mean the disposition to rely on the tried-and-true, which doesn’t preclude a willingness to innovate but does insist that the acceptance of innovation must be voluntary. (See “Social Norms and Liberty” and the posts listed at the end. “True Libertarianism, One More Time” and “Why Conservatism Works” are especially relevant here.)

Among many reasons for my rejection of “libertarianism” is its essential similarity to leftism, both ideologically and in its implementation.

The ideological similarity is evident in Arnold Kling‘s three-axes model, which he explains in The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divide. Here are some relevant passages:

In politics, I claim that progressives, conservatives, and libertarians are like tribes speaking different languages. The language that resonates with one tribe does not connect with the others. As a result, political discussions do not lead to agreement. Instead, most political commentary serves to increase polarization. The points that people make do not open the minds of people on the other side. They serve to close the minds of the people on one’s own side.

Which political language do you speak? Of course, your own views are carefully nuanced, and you would never limit yourself to speaking in a limited language. So think of one of your favorite political commentators, an insightful individual with whom you generally agree. Which of the following statements would that commentator most likely make?

(P) [Progressive] My heroes are people who have stood up for the underprivileged. The people I cannot stand are the people who are indifferent to the oppression of women, minorities, and the poor.

(C) [Conservative] My heroes are people who have stood up for Western values. The people I cannot stand are the people who are indifferent to the assault on the moral virtues and traditions that are the foundation for our civilization.

(L) [Libertarian] My heroes are people who have stood up for individual rights. The people I cannot stand are the people who are indifferent to government taking away people’s ability to make their own choices….

I call this the three-axes model of political communication. A progressive will communicate along the oppressor-oppressed axis, framing issues in terms of the (P) dichotomy. A conservative will communicate along the civilization-barbarism axis, framing issues in terms of the (C) dichotomy. A libertarian will communicate along the liberty-coercion axis, framing issues in terms of the (L) dichotomy….

If there is a real difference between P and L, I cannot find it. “Liberty-coercion” is just another way of saying “oppressor-oppressed”. One who isn’t oppressed is therefore (in the view of the “progressive”) enjoying liberty, or is at least one step closer to it.

The operational similarity between leftism and “libertarianism” is the enthusiasm shown by many “libertarians” for government intervention when it advances their particular causes. The following passages, lifted from an old post of mine, elaborate on the ideological and operational similarities of leftism and “libertarianism”.

Some “libertarians” have become apologists for PCness. Will Wilkinson, for example, suggested that

most PC episodes mocked and derided by the right are not state impositions. They are generally episodes of the voluntary social enforcement of relatively newly established moral/cultural norms.

Wilkinson grossly simplified the complex dynamics of PCness. His so-called “newly established … norms” were, in fact, norms that had been embraced by élites (academics, think-tank denizens like Wilksinson, Big Tech oligarchs, etc.) and then foisted upon “the masses” by the élites in charge of government and government-controlled institutions (e.g., tax-funded universities). Thus it is no surprise that proposals to allow same-sex marriage fared poorly when they were submitted to voters. Similarly, the constitutional “right” to an abortion, invented in 1973, remained far from universally accepted until it was un-invented in 2022.

Roderick Long is another “libertarian” who has endorsed PCness:

Another issue that inflames many libertarians against political correctness is the issue of speech codes on campuses. Yes, many speech codes are daft. But should people really enjoy exactly the same freedom of speech on university property that they would rightfully enjoy on their own property? Why, exactly?

If the answer is that the purposes of a university are best served by an atmosphere of free exchange of ideas — is there no validity to the claim that certain kinds of speech might tend, through an intimidating effect, to undermine just such an atmosphere?…

At my university [Auburn], several white fraternity members were recently disciplined for dressing up, some in Klan costumes and others in blackface, and enacting a mock lynching. Is the university guilty of violating their freedom of expression? I can’t see that it is. Certainly those students have a natural right to dress up as they please and engage in whatever playacting they like, so long as they conduct themselves peacefully. But there is no natural right to be a student at Auburn University.

Long — who describes himself as a “left-libertarian market anarchist” (whatever that is) — makes a clever but fallacious argument. The purposes of a university have nothing to do with the case. Speech is speech, except when it really isn’t speech, as in sit-ins (trespass), child pornography (sexual exploitation of minors), and divulging military secrets (treason, in fact if not in name).

Long is rightly disgusted by the actions of the fraternity members he mentions, but disgust does not excuse the suppression of speech by a State university. It is true that there is no “natural right” to be a student at Auburn, but there is, likewise, no “natural right” not to be offended.

The late economist Steven Horwitz was a kindred spirit (source no longer available online):

Yes, legislation like the Civil Rights Act of 1964 involved some interference with private property and the right of association, but it also did away with a great deal of state-sponsored discrimination and was, in my view, a net gain for liberty.

Well, some parts of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, together with its progeny — the Civil Rights Acts of 1968 and 1991 — did advance liberty, but many parts did not. A principled libertarian would acknowledge that, and parse the Acts into their libertarian and anti-libertarian components. A moral scold who really, really wants the state to impose his attitudes on others would presume — as Horwitz does — to weigh legitimate gains (e.g., voting rights) against unconscionable losses (e.g., property rights and freedom of association). But presumptuousness comes naturally to Horwitz because he — like Lindsey, Wilkinson, and Long — stood high above reality, in his (academic) ivory tower.

Wilkinson is sympatico with Horwitz in the matter of state action:

Government attempts to guarantee the worth of our liberties by recognizing positive rights to a minimum income or certain services like health care often (but not always) undermine the framework of market and civil institutions most likely to enhance liberty over the long run, and should be limited. But this is really an empirical question about what really does maximize individuals’ chances of formulating and realizing meaningful projects and lives.

Within this framework, racism, sexism, etc., which strongly limit the useful exercise of liberty are clear evils. Now, I am ambivalent about whether the state ought to step in and do anything about it.

Wilkinson, like Horwitz, is quite willing to submit to the state (or have others do so), where state action passes some kind of cost-benefit test. (See “Utilitarianism vs. Liberty.”)

In any event, what more could the state do than it has done already? Well, there is always “hate crime” legislation, which (as Nat Hentoff pointed out) is tantamount to “thought crime” legislation. Perhaps that would satisfy Long, Wilkinson, and their brethren on the “libertarian” left. And, if that didn’t do the trick, there is always Richard Thaler’s “libertarian” paternalism (with its statist slant), and Cass Sunstein’s proposal for policing thought on the internet. Sunstein, at least, doesn’t pretend to be a libertarian.

Where is libertarianism (without the sneer quotes) to be found? In conservatism, of all places, because it is a reality-based political philosophy.

But what does conservatism have to do with libertarianism? I have in various posts essayed an answer to that question (here, here, here, and here, for example), but now I turn the floor over to John Kekes, who toward the end of “What Is Conservatism?” says this:

The traditionalism of conservatives excludes both the view that political arrangements that foster individual autonomy should take precedence over those that foster social authority and the reverse view that favours arrangements that promote social authority at the expense of individual autonomy. Traditionalists acknowledge the importance of both autonomy and authority, but they regard them as inseparable, interdependent, and equally necessary. The legitimate claims of both may be satisfied by the participation of individuals in the various traditions of their society. Good political arrangements protect these traditions and the freedom to participate in them by limiting the government’s authority to interfere with either.

Therein lies true libertarianism — true because it is attainable. Left-libertarians believe, foolishly, that liberty is to be found in the rejection of social norms. Liberty has become the first victim of the brave new disorder that they wished for.

What Happened to America?

Nothing that a moral and electoral revolution wouldn’t cure.

Theodore Dalrymple, in a typically brilliant column, “First Slowly, Then Quickly“, traces the corruption of language and values pertaining to the subject of sex; for example:

In a publication aimed at dermatologists, the Dermatology Times, we read in an article devoted to the treatment of the skin in transgender patients the following:

Patients of reproductive potential who are not…abstinent with penis-containing partners, 2 forms of contraception are required.

In other words, women who would like to be men but still have their ovaries and wombs can become pregnant by sexual intercourse with fertile men, the latter now being known as “penis-containing” persons….

At the same time as we are enjoined to think of biological sex as unimportant to the point of nonexistence, and to believe that men who can have babies by penis-containers are men in precisely the same sense that Tarzan was a man….

There are several wider cultural trends discernible in the current agitation over transsexualism, or whatever name one wishes to give it…

The first cultural trend is an increasing reluctance to accept any limitation whatsoever to the satisfaction of one’s desires that are placed by circumstances beyond one’s control, that is to say an exaggerated or exacerbated Prometheanism: You can be anything you want, without limitation, and therefore you do not have to accept anything you were born with as ineluctable….

The second trend is to magical thinking, despite the supposed rationality of our age and its vaunted defeat of superstition. We believe that we can change reality by means of mere verbal incantations…. Thus, if we go on saying long enough that women who take male hormones are men, and outlaw the opposite proposition, such women will become men.

The third trend is the worship of power. The object of deliberate language change is not to improve the state of the world, or even anyone’s state of mind, but the exertion and consolidation of power for its own sake….

The fourth trend is centralization of the marginal; that is to say, a marginal phenomenon such as transsexualism comes to occupy the center of intellectual attention. To employ a different metaphor, the tail wags the dog.

The fifth trend is to the increasing spinelessness or cowardice of much of the intelligentsia, who in this case have proved themselves astonishingly easy to intimidate, a pack of intellectual Neville Chamberlains (but Chamberlain had more excuse, for he had lived through the horror of the First World War, which he did not want to repeat). Nothing has proved too absurd for this intelligentsia to swallow; indeed, the swallowing of absurdity is easier for the intelligentsia than others, for rationalization is their métier. There is no point in being an intellectual if you think only what everyone else thinks.

Which leads to this:

The most important question is, What next?—for there will be a next, because transgressive reform is what gives meaning to life in the absence of any other meaning. My money is on incest, against which there is no rational argument these days, given the availability of birth control and abortion and the moral authority of mutual consent.

Dalrymple’s answer applies only to matters sexual. But his observations have broader implications for the fate of the West. The alarming reluctance among “wokesters” to accept natural limitations, magical thinking, centralization of the marginal, and spinelessness have burrowed into the social and economic fabric of the West. And encourage its subjugation by enemies who scoff at such “woke” delusions as transgenderism, “climate change”, “equity”, and the rest of the left’s “woke” agenda.

In America, these delusions have been accumulating since the onset of the so-called Progressive Era in the 1890s. That naissance (it was nothing like a renaissance) occurred on the (figurative) eve of my maternal grandparents’ marriage. My maternal grandmother was born in 1880 and lived to the age of 96. I was close to her from my early childhood until her death in 1977, when I was 36 years old..

She was a typical American woman of her generation, and of at least one generation to follow. She worked at a menial job until her marriage, bore and raised ten children, never traveled more than 150 miles from her home (until a late-life trip to visit a son in Florida), cooked on a wood-burning stove and lived without indoor plumbing until she was 70, never owned a TV, and never drove a car. (For more about Grandma and her progeny, see this, this, and this.)

No thanks to the Progressive Era and all that it unleashed, the America of today isn’t my grandmother’s America. Nor is it my mother’s America. Nor is it the America that I grew up in.

What is it? And what happened to make it the way that it is?

Before I try to describe the America of today and explain how it came to be, I must try to describe what it was for most Americans in the first five decades of the twentieth century:

  • Life, for a significant fraction of the populace — a fraction that dwindled, swelled in the 1930s, and then dwindled sharply — was a fragile thing. It was threatened by disease, malnutrition, injury, lack of adequate shelter, and much else that (as of now) has been “conquered” by economic and scientific progress. (Economic progress occurred in spite of government action — see, for example, this, this, this, and this. Scientific progress has become regress, witness the government-funded plague known as Covid-19 and the wholesale hysteria known as “climate change”.)

  • Physical labor was central to life and fraught with dangers that were taken in stride.

  • Family ties were crucial because of the foregoing.

  • Religious belief was taken for granted and the central tenets of the Judeo-Christian tradition guided behavior (with the usual lapses that are endemic to human nature).

  • The vicissitudes of life and shared religious beliefs made community (but not communism) a real thing, not a faux construct fostered by “social” media.

  • Social life centered on family, church, and community.

  • Entertainment was largely home-made and wholesome.

  • One’s income and wealth were one’s own responsibility.

  • The super-rich promoted the arts, not thought control.

  • Immigrants entered the country legally and studied America’s Constitution and history to become citizens. (They weren’t allowed in the back door and released into the general population to burden taxpayers.)

  • Fairness was striking a deal and sticking to it, not claiming to be “owed” something because of one’s color, creed, or gender-confusion.

  • Sex was a fact of life, and (usually) a private matter. And there were only two sexes.

  • Homosexuality was an aberration that undercut the social fabric and, accordingly, wasn’t flaunted or “celebrated”.

  • Race and racial differences (cultural, economic, criminal) were facts of life, not a “social construct”.

  • Crime was punished quickly and with all due severity.

  • College was a privilege for the brightest, not a “right” to be thrown at millions who were unfit for it.

  • Politicians, despite their tendency toward mendacity and venality, were by-and-large to be trusted, as long as their power was circumscribed.

  • Washington was a far-off place (metaphorically if not geographically) that had little to do with daily life.

What’s wrong with that list? Nothing, as far as I can see. It’s anchored in reality.

How, then, did America come to be run by a cabal of super-rich “oligarchs”, politicians, bureaucrats, academics, and “journalists” who sneer at the list and reject it, in deed if not in word?

It happened one step backward at a time. America’s old culture, along with much of its liberty and (less visibly) its prosperity, was lost step by step through a combination of chicanery (by the left) and compromise (by “centrists” and conservative dupes). The process — the culmination of which is “wokeness” — has a long history and deep roots. Those roots are not in Marxism, socialism, atheism, or any of the other left-wing “isms” (appalling and dangerous they may be). They are, as I explain here, in (classical) liberalism, the supposed bulwark of liberty and prosperity.

An “ism” is only as effective as its adherents. The adherents of (classical) liberalism are especially ineffective in the defense of liberty because they are blinded by their own rhetoric. Take Deirdre McCloskey, for example, whom Arnold Kling quotes approvingly in a piece that I eviscerated recently:

The quality of life you personally lead, dear reader, is better than the lives of your thirty-two great-great-great-great grandparents. I’ll speak for myself. An Irish peasant woman digging pratties in her lazybed in 1805 or a Norwegian farmer of thirty acres of rock soil in Dimmelsvik in 1800 or the American daughter of poor English people in 1795 had brutish and short lives. Many of them could not read. Their horizons were narrow. Their lives were toilsome and bitter….

Richer and more urban people, contrary to what the magazines of opinion sometimes suggest, are less materialistic, less violent, less superficial than poor and rural people. Because people in capitalist countries already possess the material, they are less attached to their possessions than people in poor countries. And because they have more to lose from a society of violence, they resist it.

… The richer, more urban, more bourgeois people… have larger, not smaller, spiritual lives than their ancestors of the pastoral. They have more, not fewer, real friends than their great-great-great-great grandparents in “closed-corporate” villages. They have broader, not narrower, choices of identity than the one imposed on them by the country, custom, language, and religion of their birth. They have deeper, not shallower, contacts with the transcendent of art or science or God, and sometimes even of nature, than the superstitious peasants and haunted hunter-gatherers from whom we all descend.4

That drips with smugness and condescension. And it wildly mischaracterizes the wealthy “elites” who have taken charge in the West. As I will discuss, there is noting spiritual about them.

McCloskey, who is an economist of some note, should know better than to make what amounts to interpersonal utility comparisons. She writes as if she were able to evaluate the “utility” of the dead and weigh it against the “utility” of the living. No such evaluation is possible, even for the living. The dead are beyond reach, of course, but they certainly weren’t able to weigh their circumstances against the unpredictable circumstances of their descendants and find themselves wanting — materially or spiritually — relative to those as-yet-unborn descendants.

All that McCloskey has told is is that she (formerly he) views his/her way of life as superior to that of the unwashed masses, living and dead. Further, holding that view — which is typical of liberals classical and modern (i.e., statists) — he/she obviously believes that the superior way of life should be adopted by the unwashed — for their own good, of course. (If this isn’t to be accomplished by force, as statists would prefer, then by education and example. This would include, but not be limited to, choosing a new sexual identity if one is deluded enough to believe that he/she was “assigned” the wrong one at birth.)

It is hard to tell McCloskey’s attitude from that of a member of the “woke” elite, though he/she undoubtedly deny being such a person. I am willing to bet, however, that most of McCloskey’s ilk (if not he/she him/herself) voted enthusiastically for “moderate” Joe Biden because rude, crude Donald Trump offended their tender sensibilities (and threatened their statist agenda). And they did so knowing that Biden, despite his self-proclaimed “moderation”, was and is allied with leftists whose statist ambitions for the United States are an affront to every tenet of classical liberalism, not the least of which is freedom of speech. Shallowness, thy name is (classical) liberalism (when it is not never-Trump “conservativism”.)

What is a “wokester”, then? A “wokester” is someone with an anti-American agenda has become impatient with such trifles as freedom of speech and due process of law for those who oppose that agenda. Here is Bari Weiss on the subject:

Let me offer the briefest overview of the core beliefs of the Woke Revolution, which are abundantly clear to anyone willing to look past the hashtags and the jargon.

It begins by stipulating that the forces of justice and progress are in a war against backwardness and tyranny. And in a war, the normal rules of the game must be suspended. Indeed, this ideology would argue that those rules are not just obstacles to justice, but tools of oppression. They are the master’s tools.  And the master’s tools cannot dismantle the master’s house.

So the tools themselves are not just replaced but repudiated. And in so doing, persuasion—the purpose of argument—is replaced with public shaming. Moral complexity is replaced with moral certainty. Facts are replaced with feelings.

Ideas are replaced with identity. Forgiveness is replaced with punishment. Debate is replaced with de-platforming. Diversity is replaced with homogeneity of thought. Inclusion, with exclusion.

In this ideology, speech is violence. But violence, when carried out by the right people in pursuit of a just cause, is not violence at all. In this ideology, bullying is wrong, unless you are bullying the right people, in which case it’s very, very good. In this ideology, education is not about teaching people how to think, it’s about reeducating them in what to think. In this ideology, the need to feel safe trumps the need to speak truthfully.

In this ideology, if you do not tweet the right tweet or share the right slogan, your whole life can be ruined. Just ask Tiffany Riley, a Vermont school principal who was fired—fired—because she said she supports black lives but not the organization Black Lives Matter.

In this ideology, the past cannot be understood on its own terms, but must be judged through the morals and mores of the present. It is why statues of Grant and Washington are being torn down. And it is why William Peris, a UCLA lecturer and an Air Force veteran, was investigated for reading Martin Luther King’s “Letter from Birmingham Jail” out loud in class.

In this ideology, intentions don’t matter. That is why Emmanuel Cafferty, a Hispanic utility worker at San Diego Gas and Electric, was fired for making what someone said he thought was a white-supremacist hand gesture—when in fact he was cracking his knuckles out of his car window.

In this ideology, the equality of opportunity is replaced with equality of outcome as a measure of fairness. If everyone doesn’t finish the race at the same time, the course must have been defective. Thus, the argument to get rid of the SAT. Or the admissions tests for public schools like Stuyvesant in New York or Lowell in San Francisco.

In this ideology, you are guilty for the sins of your fathers. In other words: You are not you. You are only a mere avatar of your race or your religion or your class. That is why third-graders in Cupertino, California, were asked to rate themselves in terms of their power and privilege. In third grade.

In this system, we are all placed neatly on a spectrum of “privileged” to “oppressed.” We are ranked somewhere on this spectrum in different categories: race, gender, sexual orientation, and class. Then we are given an overall score, based on the sum of these rankings. Having privilege means that your character and your ideas are tainted. This is why, one high-schooler in New York tells me, students in his school are told, “If you are white and male, you are second in line to speak.” This is considered a normal and necessary redistribution of power.

Racism has been redefined. It is no longer about discrimination based on the color of someone’s skin. Racism is any system that allows for disparate outcomes between racial groups. If disparity is present, as the high priest of this ideology, Ibram X. Kendi, has explained, racism is present. According to this totalizing new view, we are all either racist or anti-racist. To be a Good Person and not a Bad Person, you must be an “anti-racist.” There is no neutrality. There is no such thing as “not racist.”

Most important: In this revolution, skeptics of any part of this radical ideology are recast as heretics. Those who do not abide by every single aspect of its creed are tarnished as bigots, subjected to boycotts and their work to political litmus tests. The Enlightenment, as the critic Edward Rothstein has put it, has been replaced by the exorcism.

What we call “cancel culture” is really the justice system of this revolution. And the goal of the cancellations is not merely to punish the person being cancelled. The goal is to send a message to everyone else: Step out of line and you are next.

And:

It has worked. A recent Cato [Institute] study found that 62 percent of Americans are afraid to voice their true views. Nearly a quarter of American academics endorse ousting a colleague for having a wrong opinion about hot-button issues such as immigration or gender differences.

It has worked because it is the culmination of a decades of indoctrination in public schools and universities — indoctrination that derides and denies the America that I described earlier. It has worked because wealthy “elites” in positions of power — academic power, corporate power, media power, and governmental power — are among the indoctrinated are able to make it work. And if they are not indoctrinated, they are willing and able to make it work for their own enrichment and power.

Why would they do that? For the perquisites of being in power and being allied with the all-powerful state. Here, for example, is Theodore Dalyrmple, writing about Britain (though he could just as well be writing about America or another other rich Western nation):

Britain has pioneered and is now a world leader in a phenomenon that might be called legalized corruption or corruption without breaking the law. This allows private looting of funds raised by taxation and government borrowing on an unprecedented scale. Combined with the moral and intellectual corruption of such services as the police, who indulge in para-police activities such as eliminating hatred from the human breast while ignoring burglaries, arson, and assault, value for money has become a concept without meaning or application….

The state, said Bastiat, is the means by which everybody seeks to live at everyone else’s expense. (You need not believe that this is the only function of the state to see the truth, or strong element of truth, in Bastiat’s dictum.) But in the past what most people wanted from the state was a secure living and a decent pension rather than a pharaonic scale of living. In Britain, at least, Mrs. Thatcher opened the Pandora’s box of bureaucratic ambition, and out flew all those soi-disant chief executives, directors of operations, deputy directors of business development, etc., and now they will never return where they belong.

Seen in this light, the recent shindig or orgy [“climate change” conference] in Glasgow becomes rather more intelligible. There were 400 private jets said to have landed, like a swarm of bees (or is it vultures?) at Glasgow airport, for this event. It would be instructive to know how many of the owners of those jets owed their wealth in large part to favors done them by governments. Not all, probably, but many. We do not live in a liberal order, at least not liberal in the classical economic sense, but in a corporatist one, or one rather like the apartheid regime in South Africa, with its socialism and positive discrimination for one race. No doubt corporatism is to some extent inevitable because of the complexity of modern technology, which we cannot, or do not wish to, do without, but at least let us get our terminology right.

Michael Rectenwald goes beyond venality into dystopia:

According to Klaus Schwab, the founder and executive chair of the World Economic Forum (WEF), the 4-IR [fourth Industrial Revolution] follows the first, second, and third Industrial Revolutions—the mechanical, electrical, and digital, respectively. The 4-IR builds on the digital revolution, but Schwab sees the 4-IR as an exponential takeoff and convergence of existing and emerging fields, including Big Data; artificial intelligence; machine learning; quantum computing; and genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics. The consequence is the merging of the physical, digital, and biological worlds. The blurring of these categories ultimately challenges the very ontologies by which we understand ourselves and the world, including “what it means to be human.”5….

[I]f existing 4-IR developments are any indication of the future, then Schwab’s enthusiasm is misplaced, and the 4-IR is misrepresented. These developments already include internet algorithms that feed users prescribed news and advertisements and downrank or exclude banned content; algorithms that censor social media content and consign “dangerous” individuals and organizations to digital gulags; apps that track and trace covid suspects and report violators to the police; robot police with QR code scanners to identify and round up dissenters; and smart cities where everyone is a digital entity to be monitored, surveilled, and recorded, while data on their every move is collected, collated, stored, and attached to a digital identity and social credit score….

Many positive developments may come from the 4-IR, but unless it is taken out of the hands of the corporate-socialist technocrats, it will constitute a virtual prison.

Under the Great Reset governance model, states and favored corporations form “public-private partnerships” in control of governance. The configuration yields a corporate-state hybrid largely unaccountable to the constituents of national governments….

In Google Archipelago, I argued that leftist authoritarianism is the political ideology and modus operandi of what I call Big Digital, and that Big Digital is the leading edge of an emerging world system. Big Digital is the communications, ideological, and technological arm of an emerging corporate socialism. The Great Reset is the name that has since been given to the project of establishing this world system.

Just as Klaus Schwab and the WEF hoped, the covid crisis has accelerated the development of the Great Reset’s corporate-socialist statism. Developments advancing the Great Reset agenda include the Federal Reserve’s unrestrained printing of money, the subsequent inflation, the increasing taxation on everything imaginable, the increased dependence on the state, the supply chain crisis, the restrictions and job losses due to vaccine mandates, and the prospect of personal carbon allowances.10 Altogether, these and other such policies constitute a coordinated attack on the majority. Ironically, they also represent the “fairness” aspect of the Great Reset—if we properly understand fairness to mean leveling the economic status of the “average American” with those in less “privileged” regions. And this is one of the functions of woke ideology11—to make the majority in developed countries feel unworthy of their “privileged” lifestyles and consumption patterns, which the elite are in the process of resetting to a reduced and static new normal.

Over the past twenty-one months, the response to the covid-19 scourge has consolidated the monopolistic corporations’ grip on the economy on top, while advancing “actually-existing socialism” below. In partnership with Big Tech, Big Pharma, the legacy media, national and international health agencies, and compliant populations, hitherto “democratic” Western states are increasingly being transformed into totalitarian regimes modeled after China, seemingly overnight. I need not provide a litany of the tyranny and abuses. You can read about them on alternative news sites—until you can no longer read about them even there.12

The Great Reset, then, is not merely a conspiracy theory; it is an open, avowed, and planned project, and it is well underway.

As Rahm Emanuel infamously said, never let a serious crisis go to waste. In other words, exploit it to the hilt in order to increase the power and scope of government.

Therein lies the story of the dissolution of America (and the West). Trust in government, whether sincere or cynical, has displaced personal responsibility, which was — with other aspects of virtue — the mainspring of the American character. The mainspring wore down under the pressure of Progressivism, the crisis that was the Great Depression, the growth of government spawned by that crisis, the false sense of security generated by the welfare state, and — paradoxically — just enough prosperity (for which proponents of the welfare state falsely claim credit) to make Americans (figuratively and too often literally) fat, dumb, and happy.

Economic security — or the illusion of it — is an enemy of liberty. And the failure of liberty eventually brings about the failure of economic security because “Big Brother” destroys the initiative (springing from personal responsibility) that makes possible true prosperity, which the printing of money cannot sustain.

“Big Brother” not only destroys personal responsibility, he also destroys the communal esprit that is animated by mutual trust, respect, and beneficial cooperation. In other words “Big Brother” destroys the essence of liberty. And, to that end, “Big Brother” has become the manservant of “wokeness”.

What do “wokesters” want? Their agenda has coalesced around a long list of ideological desiderata. Some of them are hangovers from the Progressive Era and FDR’s New Deal. Most have arisen in the past six decades, with the most bizarre among them having been hatched in the past decade. Here are as many of them as I can list without retching:

  • income redistribution

  • universal health care

  • abortion, for any reason, up to and even beyond the birth of a child

  • reverse anti-racism, anti-sexism, etc., aimed mainly at the imagined enemy of “equity”: the straight, white male of European descent

  • anti-whiteness, just because whites do happen to be smarter and less violent than blacks (on average)

  • sexual libertinism and “reproductive liberty”

  • “prison reform” (i.e., lighter and shorter sentences, or none)

  • de-funding police departments because of an occasional wrongful death (and many more debunked charges of racism and brutality)

  • reducing defense expenditures because peace is just a matter of diplomacy

  • cultivating convenient scapegoats (e.g., “Big Business” before much of it joined AMBT, Trump, and Russia)

  • saving the planet from an imaginary incendiary death, which is somehow to be accompanied by ever-rising seas

  • replacing reliable sources of energy with unreliable ones because they are “sustainable” (a mockery of the word)

  • debasing the language and erasing the nation’s cultural heritage on the pretext that some parts of it are “offensive” (mainly to effete whites who cringe at a sketch of a gun)

  • the practical debarment of religion from political discourse (Christianity and Judaism, to be precise)

  • and anything else that bestirs the combination of utter naivete and adolescent rebelliousness which characterizes AMBT.

The list is always growing because the quest for cosmic justice never ends. It cannot end because it is impossible to attain: Reality — the stubbornness of human nature, the limitations of nature, the prohibitive costs of attaining cosmic justice — always intervenes.

But that doesn’t deter the “woke”, who have a cult-like devotion to the attainment of their desiderata.  Cult-like because it is the goals that matter, not the possibility of their attainment or the social and economic costs of striving to attain them. It is a cult ruled by feelings, not facts.

Any failure to advance the cult’s agenda is called an attack on democracy, as if the cult had anything to do with democracy. If it did, it wouldn’t be in the business of trying to suppress dissent from cult’s tenets; it would react peacefully (in rhetoric and deed) to judicial decrees that thwart the accomplishment of its desiderata (contra the reaction to Supreme Court rulings on guns, abortion, and EPA’s overreach); and it would accept the outcomes of election results that rebuff its candidates. If it did, its members would understand that they, not their political opponents, are the real fascists to be loathed and feared.

Nor are the members of the cult devotees of science. They use the word cynically to justify their dictatorial impulses.

Actual (representative) democracy and actual, fact-based, refutable science are to the cult as sunlight is to a vampire.

The cult is abetted by a large segment of the populace. Having captured the Democrat Party, the cult has captured some of its habitual adherents. (Though there are signs that some of those adherents have had enough of the “woke” agenda.) Then there are the over-educated and affluent professional classes, whose members believe in the idealistic, pseudo-scientific malarkey that propels “wokeism”, and who cannot see (or do not care) about its effects on the nation’s social and economic fabric. There is also the “education” industry, which has for decades faithfully regurgitated the cult’s agenda and indoctrinated tens of million of young Americans. It deserves special mention and a place in the Ninth Circle of Hell. As for the many others unmentioned here, theirs is a combination of venality, envy, ignorance, and the aforementioned adolescent rebelliousness at work. Not every member of the cult ascribes to every item on the cult’s agenda, but all support it because they believe — falsely and foolishly — that its attainment will be to their benefit.

The cult would not be where it is today without the aid and comfort of professional politicians — Democrats, of course. Many of them may not be true believers, but they evidently believe that their profession of faith in the cult’s agenda helps them to attain power, which is what they mean when they say that they are public servants.

The cult and its enablers are so committed (in practice if not in conscience) to the cult’s desiderata that the attainment of those desiderata justifies the use of any means to advance them. Limits placed by the Constitution and constitutional laws are sundered; ideological opponents are slandered, libeled, and shamed; lying (including the fabrication and use of the so-called Steele dossier) and cheating (as in rigging elections) are taken for granted; violence is condoned or encouraged — and excused because it is done by the “oppressed” (or something along those lines).

In a phrase: Their ends justify their means.

The long list of ends comes down to three things:

  • The first thing is to make people dependent on government (a dependency that began in earnest under FDR).

  • The second, and related, thing is to relieve people of taking personal responsibility for their life outcomes. (FDR, again, takes “credit” for having initiated this practice.)

  • The third thing is to accomplish the first two things not just by making people dependent on government and relieving them of personal responsibility, but also to dragoon the population at large into supporting the first two things (whether or not they support them). This used to be done by regulation and taxation. It is now being done (in partnership with Big Tech) by controlling speech under the rubric of combating “disinformation”.

It is the preservation and advancement of the cult’s agenda that drives the myth of the “insurrection” on January 6, 2021.

Which brings me to Donald Trump. It was he who crystallized opposition to the agenda of “wokeism”. For that sin he was the subject and victim of the hoax that begin during his candidacy and endures to this day. For that sin he was the victim of the greatest electoral fraud in this country’s history.

If the acts perpetrated against Trump because of his opposition to the cult’s agenda do not convince you that the cult must — must — be defeated, nothing will. The coming mid-term elections may put the country back on the right road. But it will take victory — a resounding GOP victory — in the presidential election of 2024 to stride further down that road and away from the Sovietization of America.

My hope for 2024 is that a politician who is more articulate, personally credible, and bureaucratically adept than Donald Trump will be the GOP’s candidate for president. If the election of 2016 was the Flight 93 election — as Michael Anton dubbed it — the election of 2024 will be the Armageddon election.

God save us all if Satan’s disciples win.

The Bad News about Economic Growth

There won’t be any, absent regime change.

You may not know about the Rahn Curve, but it’s central to the story I’m about to tell. The theory behind the Rahn Curve is simple — but not simplistic. A relatively small government with powers limited mainly to the protection of citizens and their property is worth more than its cost to taxpayers because it fosters productive economic activity (not to mention liberty). But additional government spending hinders productive activity in many ways, which are discussed in Daniel Mitchell’s paper, “The Impact of Government Spending on Economic Growth.” (I would add to Mitchell’s list the burden of regulatory activity, which grows even when government does not.)

What does the Rahn Curve look like? Mitchell estimates this relationship between government spending and economic growth:

The curve is dashed rather than solid at low values of government spending because it has been decades since the governments of developed nations have spent as little as 20 percent of GDP. But as Mitchell and others note, the combined spending of governments in the U.S. was 10 percent (and less) until the eve of the Great Depression. And it was in the low-spending, laissez-faire era from the end of the Civil War to the early 1900s that the U.S. enjoyed its highest sustained rate of economic growth.

Elsewhere, I estimated the Rahn curve that spans most of the history of the United States. I came up with this relationship (terms modified for simplicity (with a slight cosmetic change in terminology):

Yg = 0.054 -0.066F

To be precise, it’s the annualized rate of growth over the most recent 10-year span (Yg), as a function of F (fraction of GDP spent by governments at all levels) in the preceding 10 years. The relationship is lagged because it takes time for government spending (and related regulatory activities) to wreak their counterproductive effects on economic activity. Also, I include transfer payments (e.g., Social Security) in my measure of F because there’s no essential difference between transfer payments and many other kinds of government spending. They all take money from those who produce and give it to those who don’t (e.g., government employees engaged in paper-shuffling, destructive social-engineering schemes, and counterproductive regulatory activities).

When F is greater than the amount needed for national defense and domestic justice — no more than 0.1 (10 percent of GDP) — it discourages productive, growth-producing, job-creating activity. And because government spending weighs most heavily on taxpayers with above-average incomes, higher rates of F also discourage saving, which finances growth-producing investments in new businesses, business expansion, and capital (i.e., new and more productive business assets, both physical and intellectual).

I’ve taken a closer look at the post-World War II numbers because of the marked decline in the real rate of GDP growth since the end of the war. (A smoothed trend line goes from 4.2 percent in 1947 to 1.6 percent in 2022).

Here’s the revised result, which spans 1946-2021 and accounts for more variables:

Yg = 0.0279 – 0.340F + 0.0751A – 0.000308R – 0.136P

Where,

Yg = real rate of GDP growth in a 10-year span (annualized)

F = fraction of GDP spent by governments at all levels during the preceding 10 years

A = the constant-dollar value of private nonresidential assets (business assets) as a fraction of GDP, averaged over the preceding 10 years

R = average number of Federal Register pages, in thousands, for the preceding 10-year period

P = growth in the CPI-U during the preceding 10 years (annualized).

(The r-squared of the equation is 0.74 and the F-value is 1.9E-14. The p-values of the intercept and coefficients are 0.050, 1.33E-08, 2.27E-09, 5.95E-07, and 0.0030. The standard error of the estimate is 0.0048, that is, about half a percentage point.)

Here’s how the equation stacks up against actual 10-year rates of real GDP growth:

What does the equation portend for the next 10 years? Based on the most recent values of F, A, R, and P, the real rate of growth for the next 10 years will be about -6 percent. Yes, that’s minus 6 percent!

Is such a thing possible in the United States? Yes! The estimates of inflation-adjusted GDP available at the website of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (an official arm of the U.S. government) yield these frightening statistics: Constant-dollar GDP dropped at an annualized rate of -9.3 percent from 1929 to 1932, and at an annualized rate of -7.4 percent from 1929 to 1933.

Has Humanity Reached Peak Intelligence?

TV offerings suggest that the peak is in the past.

The title of this post is taken from the title of a post at BBC Future by David Robson, a journalist who has written a book called The Intelligence Trap: Why Smart People Make Dumb Mistakes. Inasmuch as “humanity” isn’t a collective to which “intelligence” can be attached, the title is more titillating than informative about the substance of the post, wherein Mr. Robson says some sensible things; for example:

When the researcher James Flynn looked at [IQ] scores over the past century, he discovered a steady increase – the equivalent of around three points a decade. Today, that has amounted to 30 points in some countries.

Although the cause of the Flynn effect is still a matter of debate, it must be due to multiple environmental factors rather than a genetic shift.

Perhaps the best comparison is our change in height: we are 11cm (around 5 inches) taller today than in the 19th Century, for instance – but that doesn’t mean our genes have changed; it just means our overall health has changed.

Indeed, some of the same factors may underlie both shifts. Improved medicine, reducing the prevalence of childhood infections, and more nutritious diets, should have helped our bodies to grow taller and our brains to grow smarter, for instance. Some have posited that the increase in IQ might also be due to a reduction of the lead in petrol, which may have stunted cognitive development in the past. The cleaner our fuels, the smarter we became.

This is unlikely to be the complete picture, however, since our societies have also seen enormous shifts in our intellectual environment, which may now train abstract thinking and reasoning from a young age. In education, for instance, most children are taught to think in terms of abstract categories (whether animals are mammals or reptiles, for instance). We also lean on increasingly abstract thinking to cope with modern technology. Just think about a computer and all the symbols you have to recognise and manipulate to do even the simplest task. Growing up immersed in this kind of thinking should allow everyone [hyperbole alert] to cultivate the skills needed to perform well in an IQ test….

[Psychologist Robert Sternberg] is not alone in questioning whether the Flynn effect really represented a profound improvement in our intellectual capacity, however. James Flynn himself has argued that it is probably confined to some specific reasoning skills. In the same way that different physical exercises may build different muscles – without increasing overall “fitness” – we have been exercising certain kinds of abstract thinking, but that hasn’t necessarily improved all cognitive skills equally. And some of those other, less well-cultivated, abilities could be essential for improving the world in the future.

Here comes the best part:

You might assume that the more intelligent you are, the more rational you are, but it’s not quite this simple. While a higher IQ correlates with skills such as numeracy, which is essential to understanding probabilities and weighing up risks, there are still many elements of rational decision making that cannot be accounted for by a lack of intelligence.

Consider the abundant literature on our cognitive biases. Something that is presented as “95% fat-free” sounds healthier than “5% fat”, for instance – a phenomenon known as the framing bias. It is now clear that a high IQ does little to help you avoid this kind of flaw, meaning that even the smartest people can be swayed by misleading messages.

People with high IQs are also just as susceptible to the confirmation bias – our tendency to only consider the information that supports our pre-existing opinions, while ignoring facts that might contradict our views. That’s a serious issue when we start talking about things like politics.

Nor can a high IQ protect you from the sunk cost bias – the tendency to throw more resources into a failing project, even if it would be better to cut your losses – a serious issue in any business. (This was, famously, the bias that led the British and French governments to continue funding Concorde planes, despite increasing evidence that it would be a commercial disaster.)

Highly intelligent people are also not much better at tests of “temporal discounting”, which require you to forgo short-term gains for greater long-term benefits. That’s essential, if you want to ensure your comfort for the future.

Besides a resistance to these kinds of biases, there are also more general critical thinking skills – such as the capacity to challenge your assumptions, identify missing information, and look for alternative explanations for events before drawing conclusions. These are crucial to good thinking, but they do not correlate very strongly with IQ, and do not necessarily come with higher education. One study in the USA found almost no improvement in critical thinking throughout many people’s degrees.

Given these looser correlations, it would make sense that the rise in IQs has not been accompanied by a similarly miraculous improvement in all kinds of decision making.

So much for the bright people who promote and pledge allegiance to socialism and its various manifestations (e.g., the Green New Deal, and Medicare for All). So much for the bright people who suppress speech with which they disagree because it threatens the groupthink that binds them.

Robson also discusses evidence of dysgenic effects in IQ:

Whatever the cause of the Flynn effect, there is evidence that we may have already reached the end of this era – with the rise in IQs stalling and even reversing. If you look at Finland, Norway and Denmark, for instance, the turning point appears to have occurred in the mid-90s, after which average IQs dropped by around 0.2 points a year. That would amount to a seven-point difference between generations.

Psychologist (and intelligence specialist) James Thompson has addressed dysgenic effects at his blog on the website of The Unz Review. In particular, he had a lot to say about the work of an intelligence researcher named Michael Woodley. Here’s a sample from a post by Thompson:

We keep hearing that people are getting brighter, at least as measured by IQ tests. This improvement, called the Flynn Effect, suggests that each generation is brighter than the previous one. This might be due to improved living standards as reflected in better food, better health services, better schools and perhaps, according to some, because of the influence of the internet and computer games. In fact, these improvements in intelligence seem to have been going on for almost a century, and even extend to babies not in school. If this apparent improvement in intelligence is real we should all be much, much brighter than the Victorians.

Although IQ tests are good at picking out the brightest, they are not so good at providing a benchmark of performance. They can show you how you perform relative to people of your age, but because of cultural changes relating to the sorts of problems we have to solve, they are not designed to compare you across different decades with say, your grandparents.

Is there no way to measure changes in intelligence over time on some absolute scale using an instrument that does not change its properties? In the Special Issue on the Flynn Effect of the journal Intelligence Drs Michael Woodley (UK), Jan te Nijenhuis (the Netherlands) and Raegan Murphy (Ireland) have taken a novel approach in answering this question. It has long been known that simple reaction time is faster in brighter people. Reaction times are a reasonable predictor of general intelligence. These researchers have looked back at average reaction times since 1889 and their findings, based on a meta-analysis of 14 studies, are very sobering.

It seems that, far from speeding up, we are slowing down. We now take longer to solve this very simple reaction time “problem”.  This straightforward benchmark suggests that we are getting duller, not brighter. The loss is equivalent to about 14 IQ points since Victorian times.

So, we are duller than the Victorians on this unchanging measure of intelligence. Although our living standards have improved, our minds apparently have not. What has gone wrong?

From a later post:

The Flynn Effect co-exists with the Woodley Effect. Since roughly 1870 the Flynn Effect has been stronger, at an apparent 3 points per decade. The Woodley effect is weaker, at very roughly 1 point per decade. Think of Flynn as the soil fertilizer effect and Woodley as the plant genetics effect. The fertilizer effect seems to be fading away in rich countries, while continuing in poor countries, though not as fast as one would desire. The genetic effect seems to show a persistent gradual fall in underlying ability.

Woodley’s claim is based on a set of papers written since 2013, which have been recently reviewed by [Matthew] Sarraf.

The review is unusual, to say the least. It is rare to read so positive a judgment on a young researcher’s work, and it is extraordinary that one researcher has changed the debate about ability levels across generations, and all this in a few years since starting publishing in psychology.

The table in that review which summarizes the main findings is shown below. As you can see, the range of effects is very variable, so my rough estimate of 1 point per decade is a stab at calculating a median. It is certainly less than the Flynn Effect in the 20th Century, though it may now be part of the reason for the falling of that effect, now often referred to as a “negative Flynn effect”….

Here are the findings which I have arranged by generational decline (taken as 25 years).

  • Colour acuity, over 20 years (0.8 generation) 3.5 drop/decade.

  • 3D rotation ability, over 37 years (1.5 generations) 4.8 drop/decade.

  • Reaction times, females only, over 40 years (1.6 generations) 1.8 drop/decade.

  • Working memory, over 85 years (3.4 generations) 0.16 drop/decade.

  • Reaction times, over 120 years (4.8 generations) 0.57-1.21 drop/decade.

  • Fluctuating asymmetry, over 160 years (6.4 generations) 0.16 drop/decade.

Either the measures are considerably different, and do not tap the same underlying loss of mental ability, or the drop is unlikely to be caused by dysgenic decrements from one generation to another. Bar massive dying out of populations, changes do not come about so fast from one generation to the next. The drops in ability are real, but the reason for the falls are less clear. Gathering more data sets would probably clarify the picture, and there is certainly cause to argue that on various real measures there have been drops in ability. Whether this is dysgenics or some other insidious cause is not yet clear to me.…

My view is that whereas formerly the debate was only about the apparent rise in ability, discussions are now about the co-occurrence of two trends: the slowing down of the environmental gains and the apparent loss of genetic quality. In the way that James Flynn identified an environmental/cultural effect, Michael Woodley has identified a possible genetic effect, and certainly shown that on some measures we are doing less well than our ancestors.

How will they be reconciled? Time will tell, but here is a prediction. I think that the Flynn effect will fade in wealthy countries, persist with fading effect in poor countries, and that the Woodley effect will continue, though I do not know the cause of it.

Here’s my hypothesis, which I offer on the assumption that the test-takers are demographically representative of the whole populations of the countries in which they were tested: The less-intelligent portions of the populace are breeding faster than the more-intelligent portions.

(See also “The Learning Curve and the Flynn Effect“, “More about Intelligence“, “Selected Writings about Intelligence“, and especially “Intelligence“.)

"Cultural Appropriation"

A stupid concept.

Just for the fun of it, let’s divide the world into the old racial categories — Caucasoid, Mongoloid, and Negroid — and stipulate that they are associated with broadly different cultural heritages. By cultural heritages, I mean not just such things as weird languages, funny dance steps, and peculiar ways of decorating oneself, but also such things as the STEM disciplines, the technologies resulting from their application, and various other refinements (or lack thereof) in the various arts (e.g., plastic, visual, musical, and terpsichorean).

Now, it is widely believed by those persons who are sensitive to such things that Caucasoids commit grievous social sins when they adopt and adapt (i.e., “appropriate”) the cultural artifacts of Mongoloids and Negroids. But Mongoloids and Negroids are free of sin when they appropriate the cultural artifacts of Caucasoids.

This is a good thing for Mongoloids and Negroids because, unlike those Caucasoids who claim to detest cultural appropriation, they know where they would be without it. Where’s that? Living in primitive conditions without the following (and much more):

  • Computers (of all sizes)

  • Internet

  • Smart phones

  • Radio and TV

  • Movies

  • Automobiles (of all kinds), airplanes, and trains (including subways)

  • Mass production of myriad products, from foodstuffs to folderol

  • Complex and efficient distribution networks for the aforesaid products

  • The vast array of services that has accompanies, enabled, and evolved with the aforesaid artifacts (and other)

  • Classical music

  • Country music

  • Various sports (e.g., baseball, basketball, soccer, football)

That’s enough of that.

Now consider the number of Mongoloids and Negroids (billions, actually) who benefit from such things. And consider the number of Mongoloids and Negroids in the U.S. (millions, certainly) who are among the country’s top earners because of such things.

Where would those billions and millions be without “cultural appropriation”?

So, as a Caucasoid, I am quite willing to forgo “cultural appropriation” and to repudiate its benefits if my brethren of color will join me in the noble effort to eliminate cross-cultural contamination.

A National Divorce

The time may be ripe.

As promised here.

The 2021-2022 term of the U.S. Supreme Court ended recently on a victorious note for America’s conservatives, and on a bitter note for America’s leftists. I am thinking of Dobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization, West Virginia v. EPA, and New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen.

Dobbs is the case in which the Supreme Court overturned the anti-life rulings in Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. In West Virginia v. EPA the Court struck down the Environmental Protection Agency’s economically destructive overreach in the regulation of carbon dioxide emissions. And in Bruen the Court rejected a New York law restricting the right to bear arms.

U.S. Representative Maxine Waters (D – CA 43) captured the left’s reaction to these rulings when she said (in connection with Dobbs) “To hell with the Supreme Court. We will defy them.”

If the left succeeds in overturning or circumventing the Court’s decisions in these matters, conservatives — already outraged by leftist lunacy — will be livid.

If the left doesn’t succeed, its vilification of America and America’s political traditions will continue. Memes like “burn America to the goddam ground” will grow in popularity on social media and will spread to left-wing “news” outlets. The loss of the House in November 2022 and (very possibly) the Senate and White House in November 2024 will only intensify the left’s rage. Perhaps — like New England and the abolitionists of two centuries ago — Deep-Blue States will instigate a secession movement.

It would be wise, at that point, for those States with strong conservative governance to propose a national divorce. Leftists could have their own way in their part of the continent, and conservatives could be left in peace in their part of the continent. Let’s call these groupings Governmentland and Freedomland.

There would be some messy details to sort out. Foremost among them would be the question of defense. But it seems to me that if Governmentland shirks its share of the burden, Freedomland could easily afford a robust defense after having shed the many useless departments and agencies — and their policies — that burden taxpayers and the economy.

Further, a Freedomland foreign policy that is unfettered from the United Nations, and based on strength rather than diplomacy, would be a refreshing and fruitful departure from eight decades of feckless interventionism.

Because Freedomland would exist to foster the freedom and prosperity of its own citizens, it would have strict controls on entry. Visitors and temporary workers would vetted and strictly monitored. Prospective immigrants (including those from Governmentland) would be kept out by physical and electronic barriers, and would be vetted before they enter the country. Citizenship would be granted only after an applicant has demonstrated his ability to support himself (and his family if he has one in country), perhaps with the help of churches and charitable organizations. Non-citizens would be ineligible to vote, of course, and would have to have been citizens for 10 years before they are allowed to vote. (By that time one would hope that they would have been weaned from any allegiance to or dependence on a nanny state.)

What about trade between Governmentland and Freedomland? Self-sufficiency should be the watchword for Freedomland. It should not outsource energy, technology, or other products and services that are essential to defense. Some outsourcing may be necessary in the beginning, but there should be a deliberate movement toward self-sufficiency.

Freedomland’s constitution could be modeled on this one, though with some revisions to accommodate points made above.

Finally, why is a national divorce a matter of urgency? Complete victory for the enemies of liberty is only ever a few elections away. The squishy center of the American electorate — as is its wont — will eventually swing back toward the Democrat Party. With a competent Democrat in the White House, a Congress that is firmly controlled by Democrats, and a few party switches in the Supreme Court, the dogmas of the left will be stamped upon the land; for example:

  • Billions and trillions of additional dollars will be wasted on various “green” projects, including but far from limited to the complete replacement of fossil fuels by “renewables”, with the resulting impoverishment of most Americans, except for comfortable elites who press such policies).

  • It will be illegal to criticize, even by implication, such things as abortion, illegal immigration, same-sex marriage, transgenderism, anthropogenic global warming, or the confiscation of firearms. These cherished beliefs will be mandated for school and college curricula, and enforced by huge fines and draconian prison sentences (sometimes in the guise of “re-education”).

  • Any hint of Christianity and Judaism will be barred from public discourse, and similarly punished. Other religions will be held up as models of unity and tolerance.

  • Reverse discrimination in favor of females, blacks, Hispanics, gender-confused persons, and other “protected” groups will become overt and legal. But “protections” will not apply to members of such groups who are suspected of harboring libertarian or conservative impulses.

  • Sexual misconduct will become a crime, and any male person may be found guilty of it on the uncorroborated testimony of any female who claims to have been the victim of an unwanted glance, touch (even if accidental), innuendo (as perceived by the victim), etc.

  • There will be parallel treatment of the “crimes” of racism, anti-immigrationism, anti-Islamism, nativism, and genderism.

  • All health care in the United States will be subject to review by a national, single-payer agency of the central government. Private care will be forbidden, though ready access to doctors, treatments, and medications will be provided for high officials and other favored persons. The resulting health-care catastrophe that befalls most of the populace (like that of the UK) will be shrugged off as a residual effect of “capitalist” health care.

  • The regulatory regime will rebound with a vengeance, contaminating every corner of American life and regimenting all businesses except those daring to operate in an underground economy. The quality and variety of products and services will decline as their real prices rise as a fraction of incomes.

  • The dire economic effects of single-payer health care and regulation will be compounded by massive increases in other kinds of government spending (defense excepted). The real rate of economic growth will approach zero.

  • The United States will maintain token armed forces, mainly for the purpose of suppressing domestic uprisings. Given its economically destructive independence from foreign oil and its depressed economy, it will become a simulacrum of the USSR and Mao’s China — and not a rival to the new superpowers, Russia and China, which will largely ignore it as long as it doesn’t interfere in their pillaging of respective spheres of influence. A policy of non-interference (i.e., tacit collusion) will be the order of the era in Washington.

  • Though it would hardly be necessary to rig elections in favor of Democrats, given the flood of illegal immigrants who will pour into the country and enjoy voting rights, a way will be found to do just that. The most likely method will be election laws requiring candidates to pass ideological purity tests by swearing fealty to the “law of the land” (i.e., abortion, unfettered immigration, same-sex marriage, freedom of gender choice for children, etc., etc., etc.). Those who fail such a test will be barred from holding any kind of public office, no matter how insignificant.

Are my fears exaggerated? I doubt it. I have lived long enough and seen enough changes in the political and moral landscape of the United States to know that what I have sketched out can easily happen within a decade after Democrats seize total control of the national government. And it can happen given the fickleness of the electorate.

Are there other options? Yes, but none is as attractive as a negotiated partition of the country, although option E (secession) might lead to a negotiated partition. Here are six options, with my assessment of each:

A. The Benedict Option

Bruce Frohnen says this about it (source no longer available online):

[Rod] Dreher has been writing a good deal, of late, about what he calls the Benedict Option, by which he means a tactical withdrawal by people of faith from the mainstream culture into religious communities where they will seek to nurture and strengthen the faithful for reemergence and reengagement at a later date….

The problem with this view is that it underestimates the hostility of the new, non-Christian society ….

Leaders of this [new, non-Christian] society will not leave Christians alone if we simply surrender the public square to them. And they will deny they are persecuting anyone for simply applying the law to revoke tax exemptions, force the hiring of nonbelievers, and even jail those who fail to abide by laws they consider eminently reasonable, fair, and just.

That is exactly what is happening to many who dare speak out against same-sex “marriage”, and who dare to utter what might be construed as conservative views (e.g., Charles Murray and Professor Amy Wax). These are fundamental wrongs that cannot be cured — and may be encouraged — by widespread adoption of the Benedict Option.

B. Geographic Sorting

This refers to the tendency of “Blue” States to become “bluer” and “Red” States to become “redder”. It means that Americans are sorting themselves along ideological lines. This tendency — natural and laudable as it is — doesn’t cure the underlying problem: the accretion of oppressive power by the national government. Lives and livelihoods in every State, “Red” as well as “Blue”, are controlled by the edicts of the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of the national government. There is little room for State and local discretion. Moreover, much of the population shift toward “Red” must be understood as opportunistic (e.g., warmer climates, lower taxes) and not necessarily as an embrace of “Red” politics.

In my experience, for example, Californians who fled that State’s high taxes and heavy regulation for Texas brought with them a strong preference for the kinds of programs that cause high taxes and heavy regulation. They voted accordingly when they arrived in Texas, apparently ignorant of the connection between the programs they desire, the taxes they must pay, and the regulations they must endure. (The good news was that they were outnumbered on the whole, so that the State government remained staunchly Red. The bad news was that in places like Austin, they helped to reinforce a regime of high taxes and burdensome regulation.)

C. Convention of the States

A much-discussed option in recent years is a convention of the States, called in accordance with Article V of the Constitution, to amend the Constitution. The aim of such a convention would be to underscore what the Constitution says about the limits on the power of the national government. But the Constitution already says those things. There is no need to underscore them, they just need to be enforced. The options discussed below offer ways to enforce the Constitution.

There is also the matter of a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution. There is no need to hold a convention of the States to propose and ratify such an amendment. And if the national government could be reined in, so that it more closely resembles the one intended by the Framers, spending by the national government would also be reined in.

D. Departmentalism

Despite recent victories for liberty, the U.S. Supreme Court has too often sided with its big-government enemies. And, in keeping with the traditon of “playing by the rules”, the executive branch has acceed to the Court because of the doctrine of judicial supremacy.

The answer to judicial supremacy is departmentalism. Michael Stokes Paulsen and Luke Paulsen describe it in their book, The Constitution: An Introduction:

All branches of government are equally bound by the Constitution. No branch of the federal government— not the Congress, not the President, not even the Supreme Court— can legitimately act in ways contrary to the words of the Constitution. Indeed, Article VI requires that all government officials— legislative, executive, and judicial, state and federal—“ shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution.” Thus, the idea of a written constitution is closely tied to the idea of constitutional supremacy: In America, no branch of government is supreme. The government as a whole is not supreme. The Constitution is supreme. It is the written Constitution that prevails over every other source of authority in the United States.

It is crucially important to account for the States in any discussion of departmentalism. Too often all of the branches of the national government have been in agreement about the abrogation of the constitutional contract. Look at the New Deal Supreme Court, for example, which merely upheld Social Security and other unconstitutional legislation proposed by FDR and eagerly embraced by Congress. Similar examples from later administrations include but are far from limited to Medicare and Medicaid (advocated by Lyndon B. Johnson) and their vast and costly expansion through Obamacare.

Further, there are many notable instances in which the Supreme Court has struck down State laws that seem to lie beyond the province of the Constitution, and has done so on flimsy pretexts with the obvious aim of making law that expands the power of the national government. Notable examples are Roe v. Wade (1973), which manufactured a “right” to abortion, and Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) which legalized same-sex “marriage”, despite the wisdom embedded in long-standing social norms.

As sovereign entities and parties to the constitutional contract, the States can (and should) refuse to implement unconstitutional decrees emanating from the central government. Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, seems to understand this:

“If these people in California can thumb their nose at a law they don’t like [i.e., national immigration law] then I guarantee there will be a pro-life governor who will simply say no more abortions in our state and that’s just the way it is,” … Huckabee … told Fox News….

Far too many Americans have … bought the line that the “Supremacy Clause” of the Constitution states that the federal government is supreme over the states. That is most certainly not what is said in Article VI of the Constitution! Rather, the supremacy clause of the Constitution states that the Constitution is the supreme law of the land. A law passed by Congress that is not “in pursuance” of the Constitution is therefore no law at all — and neither is a decision of the Supreme Court that does not follow the Constitution.

While the wording of the Constitution is quite clear — the Congress makes all laws under the supremacy of the Constitution — it is still far too common to hear the misinformed remark that Supreme Court decisions are “the law of the land.” On the contrary, a Supreme Court decision is “the law of the case,” and is binding only on the parties involved in that case….

No one knows how the federal government would react if a state’s governor directed legal authorities to enforce homicide laws against clinics and abortionists. But, as Huckabee told Fox News, it might happen. In Oklahoma, a former state representative, Dan Fisher, is running for governor, and is vowing to do just that. Right now, Fisher is running far behind in public opinion polls for the Republican nomination. He is not expected to win the governorship.

But at some point, a pro-life governor may decide it is time to test the federal government on this point. If the federal courts and the rest of the federal government would actually follow the Constitution instead of a rogue decision by the Supreme Court, the federal government’s reaction would be meek acquiescence. Hopefully, that is what would occur, though no one can predict what the outcome would be. [Steve Byas, “Huckabee Predicts That a Pro-Life Governor Could Defy the Feds“, The New American, April 9, 2018]

The United States has been through this before, in the Nullification Crisis of 1832-33,

during the presidency of Andrew Jackson, which involved a confrontation between South Carolina and the federal government. It ensued after South Carolina declared that the federal Tariffs of 1828 and 1832 were unconstitutional and therefore null and void within the sovereign boundaries of the state….

Military preparations to resist anticipated federal enforcement were initiated by the state. On March 1, 1833, Congress passed both the Force Bill—authorizing the President to use military forces against South Carolina—and a new negotiated tariff, the Compromise Tariff of 1833, which was satisfactory to South Carolina.

But that was long ago, in a time when a State might reasonably expect to be able to defend itself militarily against U.S. armed forces, or at least put up a good fight. What would happen now and in the future depends mainly on who occupies the White House at the time.

But departmentalism cuts both ways. A defiant Democrat is more likely to invoke it than a Republican who believes in judicial supremacy.

A more drastic measure is required to restore the constitutional order.

E. Secession

In accordance with the doctrine of departmentalism, a State may be tempted to nullify an unconstitutional act of the national government. But there are probably many such acts that the State (or a preponderance of its citizens) would wish to nullify. Why do the thing piecemeal — and risk intervention by the national government for the sake of a single issue — when a sweeping solution is at hand? The sweeping solution, of course, is secession.

Secession is a legitimate constitutional act — a legal act, in other words — conventional wisdom to the contrary notwithstanding.

The best way to show that secession is legal is to construct a legal case for it, in the form of a resolution of secession:

In Convention, __________ 20__.

The Declaration of the representatives of the people of the State of _______________.

It has become necessary for the people of _______________ to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with the United States of America, and to assume the separate and equal status of an independent nation. A decent respect for the opinions of mankind requires that the people of _______________ should declare the causes which impel them to the separation, and explain its legality.

The Constitution is a contract — a compact in the language of the Framers. The parties to the compact are not only the States but also the national government created by the Constitution.

It was  by the grace of nine States that the Constitution became effective in 1789. Those nine States voluntarily created a new nation and national government and, at the same time, voluntarily ceded to that government certain specified and limited powers. The States and their people were given to understand that, in return for the powers granted it, the central government would exercise those powers for the benefit of the States and their people. Every State subsequently admitted to the union has subcribed to the Constitution with the same understanding as the nine States whose ratification effected it.

Lest there be any question about the status of the Constitution as a compact, we turn to James Madison, who is often called the Father of the Constitution. Madison, in a letter to Daniel Webster dated March 15, 1833, addresses

the question whether the Constitution of the U.S. was formed by the people or by the States, now under a theoretic discussion by animated partizans.

Madison continues:

It is fortunate when disputed theories, can be decided by undisputed facts. And here the undisputed fact is, that the Constitution was made by the people, but as imbodied into the several states, who were parties to it and therefore made by the States in their highest authoritative capacity.

Moving closer in time to the ratification of the Constitution, this is from Madison’s report on the Virginia Resolutions of 1798, a report that was adopted by the General Assembly of Virginia in 1800:

The third resolution is in the words following:–

“That this Assembly doth explicitly and peremptorily declare, that it views the powers of the federal government, as resulting from the compact to which the states are parties, as limited by the plain sense and intention of the instrument constituting that compact–as no further valid than they are authorized by the grants enumerated in that compact; and that, in case of a deliberate, palpable, and dangerous exercise of other powers, not granted by the said compact, the states who are parties thereto have the right, and are in duty bound, to interpose, for arresting the progress of the evil and for maintaining, within their respective limits, the authorities, rights, and liberties, appertaining to them.”…

The resolution declares, first, that “it views the powers of the federal government as resulting from the compact to which the states are parties;” in other words, that the federal powers are derived from the Constitution; and that the Constitution is a compact to which the states are parties….

The other position involved in this branch of the resolution, namely, “that the states are parties to the Constitution,” or compact, is, in the judgment of the committee, equally free from objection…. [I]n that sense the Constitution was submitted to the “states;” in that sense the “states” ratified it; and in that sense of the term “states,” they are consequently parties to the compact from which the powers of the federal government result. . . .

. . . The Constitution of the United States was formed by the sanction of the states, given by each in its sovereign capacity.

Finally, in The Federalist No. 39, which informed the debates in the various States about ratification,  Madison says that

the Constitution is to be founded on the assent and ratification of the people of America, given by deputies elected for the special purpose; but, on the other, that this assent and ratification is to be given by the people, not as individuals composing one entire nation, but as composing the distinct and independent States to which they respectively belong. It is to be the assent and ratification of the several States, derived from the supreme authority in each State, the authority of the people themselves. . . .

That it will be a federal and not a national act, as these terms are understood by the objectors; the act of the people, as forming so many independent States, not as forming one aggregate nation, is obvious from this single consideration, that it is to result neither from the decision of a majority of the people of the Union, nor from that of a majority of the States. It must result from the unanimous assent of the several States that are parties to it, differing no otherwise from their ordinary assent than in its being expressed, not by the legislative authority, but by that of the people themselves. Were the people regarded in this transaction as forming one nation, the will of the majority of the whole people of the United States would bind the minority, in the same manner as the majority in each State must bind the minority; and the will of the majority must be determined either by a comparison of the individual votes, or by considering the will of the majority of the States as evidence of the will of a majority of the people of the United States. Neither of these rules have been adopted. Each State, in ratifying the Constitution, is considered as a sovereign body, independent of all others, and only to be bound by its own voluntary act.

Madison leaves no doubt about the continued sovereignty of each State and its people. The remaining question is this: On what grounds, if any, may a State withdraw from the compact into which it entered voluntarily?

There is a judicial myth — articulated by a majority of the United States Supreme Court in Texas v. White (1869) — that States may not withdraw from the compact because the union of States is perpetual:

The Union of the States never was a purely artificial and arbitrary relation. It began among the Colonies, and grew out of common origin, mutual sympathies, kindred principles, similar interests, and geographical relations. It was confirmed and strengthened by the necessities of war, and received definite form and character and sanction from the Articles of Confederation. By these, the Union was solemnly declared to “be perpetual.” And when these Articles were found to be inadequate to the exigencies of the country, the Constitution was ordained “to form a more perfect Union.” It is difficult to convey the idea of indissoluble unity more clearly than by these words. What can be indissoluble if a perpetual Union, made more perfect, is not?

The Court’s reasoning is born of mysticism, not legality. Similar reasoning might have been used — and was used — to assert that the Colonies were inseparable from Great Britain. And yet, some of the people of the Colonies put an end to the union of the Colonies and Great Britain, on the moral principle that the Colonies were not obliged to remain in an abusive relationship. That moral principle is all the more compelling in the case of the union known as the United States, which — mysticism aside — is nothing more than the creature of the States.

In fact, the Constitution supplanted the Articles of Confederation and Perpetual Union, by the will of only nine of the thirteen States. Madison says this in Federalist No. 43 regarding that event:

On what principle the Confederation, which stands in the solemn form of a compact among the States, can be superseded without the unanimous consent of the parties to it? . . .

The . . . question is answered at once by recurring to the absolute necessity of the case; to the great principle of self-preservation; to the transcendent law of nature and of nature’s God, which declares that the safety and happiness of society are the objects at which all political institutions aim, and to which all such institutions must be sacrificed.

Moreover, in a letter to Alexander Rives dated January 1, 1833, Madison says that

[a] rightful secession requires the consent of the others [other States], or an abuse of the compact, absolving the seceding party from the obligations imposed by it.

An abuse of the compact most assuredly legitimates withdrawal from it, on the principle of the preservation of liberty, especially if that abuse has been persistent and shows no signs of abating. The abuse, in this instance, has been and is being committed by the national government.

The national government is both a creature of the Constitution and a de facto party to it, as co-sovereign with the States and supreme in its realm of enumerated and limited powers. One of those powers enables the Supreme Court of the United States to decide “cases and controversies” arising under the Constitution, which is but one of the ways in which the Constitution makes the national government a party to the constitutional contract. More generally, the high officials of the national government acknowledge that government’s role as a party to the compact — and the limited powers vested in them — when they take oaths of office requiring them to uphold the Constitution.

Those high officials have nevertheless have committed myriad abuses of the national government’s enumerated and limited powers. The abuses are far too numerous to list in their entirety. The following examples amply justify the withdrawal of the State of _______________ from the compact:

A decennial census is authorized in Article I, Section 2, for the purpose of enumerating the population of each State in order to apportion the membership of the House of Representatives among the States, and for none of the many intrusive purposes since sought by the executive branch and authorized by Congress.

Article I, Section 1, vests all legislative powers of the national government in the Congress, but Congress has authorized and allowed agencies of the executive branch to legislate, in the guise of regulation, on a broad and seemingly limitless range of matters affecting the liberty and property of Americans.

Further, in violation of Article III, which vests the judicial power of the national government in the judicial branch, Congress has authorized and allowed agencies of the executive branch to adjudicate matters about which they have legislated, thus creating conflicts of interest that have systematically deprived millions of Americans of due process of law.

Article I, Section 8, enumerates the specific powers of Congress, which exclude many things that Congress has authorized with the cooperation and acquiescence of the other branches; for example, establishing and operating national welfare and health-care programs; intervening in the education of American’s children in practically every village, town, and city in the land; intrusively regulating not only interstate commerce but also intrastate commerce, the minutiae of manufacturing, and private, non-commercial transactions having only a faint bearing, if any, on interstate commerce; making and guaranteeing loans, including loans by quasi-governmental institutions and other third parties; acquisition of the stock and debt of business enterprises; establishment of a central bank with the power to do more than issue money; requiring the States and their political subdivisions to adopt uniform laws on matters that lie outside the enumerated powers of Congress and beyond the previously agreed powers of the States and their subdivisions; and coercing the States and the political subdivisions in the operation of illegitimate national programs by providing and threatening to withhold so-called federal money, which is in fact taxpayers’ money. The view that the “general welfare” and/or “necessary and proper” clauses of Article I, Section 8, authorize such activities was refuted definitively in advance of the ratification of the Constitution by James Madison in Federalist No. 41, wherein the leading proponents of the Constitution stated their understanding of the Constitution’s meaning when they made the case for its ratification.

One of the provisions of Article I, Section 10, prohibits interference by the States in private contracts; moreover, the Constitution nowhere authorizes the national government to interfere in private contracts. Yet, directly and through the States, the national government has allowed, encouraged, and required interference in private contracts pertaining to employment, property, and financial transactions.

Contrary to the express words of Article II, which vests executive power in the president, Congress has vested executive power in agencies that are not under the control and supervision of the president.

The Supreme Court, in various holdings, has curtailed the president’s ability, as commander-in-chief, to defend Americans and their interests by circumscribing his discretionary authority in matters concerning the capture, detention, interrogation, and appropriate imposition of military punishment for offenses against the law of war, of enemy prisoners captured in the course of ongoing hostilities pursuant to a congressional declaration of war or authorization for use of military force.

Amendment I of the Constitution provides that “Congress shall make no law . . . abridging the freedom of speech.” But Congress has nevertheless abridged the freedom of political speech by passing bills that have been signed into law by presidents of the United States and not entirely struck down by the Supreme Court of the United States.

Amendment IX of the Constitution provides that its “enumeration . . . of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.” But Congress, in concert with various presidents and Supreme Court majorities, has enacted laws that circumscribe such time-honored rights as freedom of association, freedom of contract, and property rights. That such laws were enacted for the noble purpose of ending some outward manifestations of discrimination does not exempt them from the purview of Amendment IX. As Amendment XIII attests, freedom is for all Americans, not just those who happen to be in favor at the moment.

As outlined above, the national government has routinely and massively violated Amendment X, which states that “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

We, therefore, the representatives of the people of _______________ do solemnly publish and declare that this State ought to be free and independent; that it is absolved from all allegiance to the government of the United States; that all political connection between it and government of the United States is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as a free and independent State it has full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.

[Signatures of the delegates to the convention]

F. Coup

If all else fails, a more drastic measure may be called for:

When I see the worsening degeneracy in our politicians, our media, our educators, and our intelligentsia, I can’t help wondering if the day may yet come when the only thing that can save this country is a military coup. [Thomas Sowell, “Don’t Get Weak“, National Review, May 1, 2007]

Glenn Reynolds, who is decidedly anti-coup, writes

that the American Constitution, along with traditional American political culture in general, tends to operate against those characteristics, and to make the American polity more resistant to a coup than most. It is also notable, however, that some changes in the Constitution and in political culture may tend to reduce that resistance….

The civics-book statement of American government is that Congress passes laws that must be signed by the president (or passed over a veto), and that those laws must be upheld by the judiciary to have effect. In practice, today’s government operates on a much more fluid basis, with administrative agencies issuing regulations that have the force of law – or, all too often, “guidance” that nominally lacks the force of law but that in practice constitutes a command – which are then enforced via agency proceedings.…

[I]t seems likely that to the extent that civilians, law enforcement, and others become used to obeying bureaucratic diktats that lack a clear basis in civics-book-style democratic process, the more likely they are to go along with other diktats emanating from related sources. This tendency to go along with instructions without challenging their pedigree would seem to make a coup more likely to succeed, just as a tendency to question possibly unlawful or unconstitutional requirements would tend to make one less likely to do so. A culture whose basis is “the law is what the bureaucrats say it is, at least unless a court says different,” is in a different place than one whose starting impulse is “it’s a free country.”…

[P]ersistent calls for a government-controlled “Internet kill switch”49 – justified, ostensibly, by the needs of cyberdefense or anti-terrorism – could undercut that advantage [of a decentralized Internet]. If whoever controlled the government could shut down the Internet, or, more insidiously, filter its content to favor the plotters’ message and squelch opposition while presenting at least a superficial appearance of normality, then things might actually be worse than they were in [Fletcher Knebel and Charles Bailey’s Seven Days in May, which imagined an attempted coup by a Curtis LeMay-like general].…

[T]he most significant barrier to a coup d’etat over American history has probably stemmed simply from the fact that such behavior is regarded as un-American. Coups are for banana republics; in America we don’t do that sort of thing. This is an enormously valuable sentiment, so long as the gap between “in America” and “banana republics” is kept sufficiently broad. But it is in this area, alas, that I fear we are in the worst shape. When it comes to ideological resistance to coups d’etat, there are two distinct groups whose opinions matter: The military, and civilians. Both are problematic….

[T]here are some troubling trends in civilian/military relations that suggest that we should be more worried about this subject in the future than we have been in the past…

Among these concerns are:

  • A “societal malaise,” with most Americans thinking that the country was on “the wrong track.”

  • A “deep pessimism about politicians and government after years of broken promises,” leading to an “environment of apathy” among voters that scholars regard as a precursor to a coup.

  • A strong belief in the effectiveness and honor of the military, as contrasted to civilian government.

  • The employment of military forces in non-military missions, from humanitarian aid to drug interdiction to teaching in schools and operating crucial infrastructure.

  • The consolidation of power within the military – with Congressional approval – into a small number of hands….

  • A reduction in the percentage of the officer corps from places outside the major service academies.…

  • A general insulation of the military from civilian life…. “Military bases, complete with schools, churches, stores, child care centers, and recreational areas, became never-to-be-left islands of tranquility removed from the chaotic crime-ridden environment outside the gates…. Thus, a physically isolated and intellectually alienated officer corps was paired with an enlisted force likewise distanced from the society it was supposed to serve [quoting from an essay by Charles J. Dunlap, “The Origins Of The American Military Coup of 2012,” Parameters, Winter, 1992-93, at 2]….

[D]istrust in the civilian government and bureaucracy is very high. A 2016 Associated Press/National Opinion Research Center poll found that more than 6 in 10 Americans have “only slight confidence – or none at all” that the federal government can successfully address the problems facing the nation. And, as the AP noted, this lack of confidence transcends partisan politics: “Perhaps most vexing for the dozen or so candidates vying to succeed President Barack Obama, the poll indicates widespread skepticism about the government’s ability to solve problems, with no significant difference in the outlook between Republicans and Democrats.”

As a troubling companion to this finding, the YouGov poll on military coups…also found a troubling disconnect between confidence in civilian government and confidence in the military: “Some 71% said military officers put the interests of the country ahead of their own interests, while just 12% thought the same about members of Congress.” While such a sharp contrast in views about civilian government and the military is not itself an indicator of a forthcoming coup, it is certainly bad news. Also troubling are polls finding that a minority of voters believes that the United States government enjoys the consent of the governed. This degree of disconnection and disaffection, coupled with much higher prestige on the part of the military, bodes ill. [“Of Coups and the Constitution“, University of Tennessee Legal Studies Research Paper No. 294, July 1, 2016, last revised February 7, 2017]

Military personnel are disciplined and have access to the tools of power, and many of them are trained in clandestine operations. Therefore, a cadre of properly motivated careerists might possess the wherewithal necessary to seize power.

But … a plot to undertake a coup is easily betrayed. Among other things, significant numbers of high-ranking officers are shills for “wokeism”. A betrayed coup for liberty could easily become a coup for tyranny.

Why Freedom of Speech?

Its benefits are restricted to a society based on shared values.

The prospect of Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter dismayed the left and elated the right. Why? Because of the expectation that Twitter would thenceforth stop censoring “misinformation”, that is, facts and arguments that subvert the tenets of wokeism. Chief among those tenets are:

  • Gender fluidity (e.g., the beliefs that “men” can bear children and that sex is “assigned” at birth)

  • “Climate change catastrophe” as mainly a human-caused “problem”

  • The dictatorship of “science” (when certain “scientists” proclaim “truths” favored by the woke, such as the aforementioned commitment to human-caused warming as a “scientific fact”, which it isn’t)

  • Conservatism and constitutionalism as fascistic (a classic case of psychological projection)

  • Blacks as oppressed victims of whites, who are all racists (despite strong evidence that blacks earn less than whites, have less wealth than whites, and commit crimes more often than whites because of innate differences in intelligence and cultural reinforcement of dysfunctional behavior).

There’s much more (see this, for example), but you get the idea.

Imagine what the worlds of politics, journalism, entertainment, advertising, and employment would be like if conservatives had been as successful at suppressing the ideas of wokeism as wokeists have been successful at suppressing their ideological opponents’ views. “Sane” would be a good descriptor. (If you liked the 1950s, you’d love the absence of wokeism.)

Wokeism has succeeded largely because of the mistaken idea that freedom of speech in all matters is a “good thing”. (Conservatives generally agree, but with exceptions for such things as pornography.) Further, practically unfettered freedom of speech is bound to lead to the truth because the “marketplace of ideas” ensures that it will.

But, as it has turned out, practically unfettered freedom of speech is the devil’s playground. It fosters the operation of an intellectual version of Gresham’s law: Bad ideas drive out good ones. This perversion of the “marketplace of ideas” is reinforced by the government’s (i.e., the left’s) command of public education indoctrination; the legalistic trick (known as section 230 of the Communications Decency Act) that allows leftist information brokers to suppress conservative views; and the removal of all constraints on what the left-dominated media may present as “entertainment” and “news”.

I have elsewhere and at length (e.g., here and here) explained and explored the wrongness and consequences of free-speech absolutism. Here, I will focus on the question posed by the title of this post: Why freedom of speech, that is, what is the good of it?

Free speech — speaking one’s mind without restraint at all times and in all places — is the province of innocents and madmen. For most human beings, speech approaches (and sometimes attains) openness and candor only among intimates. Even then — when marriages, romances, and friendships fail — the limitations of openness and candor (“free speech”) become apparent.

Even among academics who work in fields that are supposedly objective (e.g., the “hard sciences” and mathematics) there are rivalries, jealousies, and political differences that stand in the way of openness and candor. It’s not that academics don’t say what they really think; they are notorious for doing so. It’s that the purported objective of free speech — the pursuit of truth through the competition of ideas — is unlikely to be attained when hypotheses and facts are skewed by academicians’ biases. A leading example of this phenomenon is the scientific consensus group-think about “climate change“, which is a shining example of a hypothesis that has been disproved by evidence but survives and thrives on ignorance, emotionalism, and self-interest. (As do many other ruinous manifestations of “free speech”, such as recycling, “green” energy, anti-COVID masking, the innocence of Trayvon Martin, the saintliness of George Floyd, etc., etc., etc.)

In sum, given the left’s dominance of the “marketplace of ideas”, favored opinions will be (and are) those that foster social discord (e.g., critical race theory) and hysterical attachments to destructive pseudo-scientific fraudulence (e.g., “climate catastrophe” and “gender fluidity”).

Freedom of speech, as now practiced in America, favors irrationality and emotionalism. It does not — as evidenced by the current state of America — favor truth, justice, or the general well-being of the citizenry.

Freedom of speech is beneficial only if a vast majority of the populace shares certain fundamental values:

  • Free markets produce the best outcomes, especially when people take personal responsibility for their economic situation.

  • Social comity rests on taking personal responsibility for one’s actions, not making excuses or blaming “the system”.

  • The last six of the Ten Commandments are the best guides to proper behavior.

  • Duly enacted laws are to be upheld until they are duly revised or rescinded.

  • Social and economic freedom come down to mutual trust, mutual respect, and mutual forbearance, which describes the state of liberty. Without those things, there is no liberty.

The Framers of the Constitution could not envision a free society in which the foregoing tenets were routinely and gleefully violated. That is because there can be no free society where the foregoing tenets are routinely and gleefully violated.

To put a point on it, freedom of speech is a danger to liberty, prosperity, and social comity as long as America’s institutions are held captive or besieged by the left.

But it is evident that the left will not relent. It is therefore time for a national divorce that frees the majority of States from the left’s tyranny.

I will discuss national divorce in my next post.

Open Borders?

Why not keep your car and house unlocked?

Bryan Caplan claims that

prohibiting someone from immigrating to the United States … violates private property rights and freedom of association. An American’s freedom to hire an immigrant to work in the business she owns is protected by her private property rights as well as her freedom to associate with the immigrant and the immigrant’s freedom to associate with her. The same goes for decisions to reside or congregate with people from other countries.

The fundamental right of freedom of association necessarily includes the freedom not to associate with a certain person or persons. A group of like-minded individuals may therefore band together and declare that they will not associate with, say, illegal immigrants.

Further, that group may hold joint title to “public” property (e.g., hospitals, schools, and other “public” services) by virtue of paying taxes to maintain the property and to support the operations conducted on it. The group therefore has the right to forbid certain persons (outside the group) from using that property, both as a matter of property rights and freedom of association.

Caplan’s kind of libertarianism is in fact destructive of property rights and freedom of association.

Pay Any Price?

Dubious rhetoric, then and now.

“We shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and success of liberty” ― John F. Kennedy, 1961

That was then.

Now, Uncle Joe (the addled one in DC, not the crafty one in the Kremlin) wants Americans to sacrifice for the war effort by paying $5 (and up) for a gallon of gasoline.

What war effort, Joe? Ukraine is losing. NATO is providing some help, but won’t (with good reason) intervene directly. Putin — having successfully portrayed himself as a madman — threatens to pull the nuclear trigger in the event of direct intervention.

In sum, there’s not really a war effort, just a kabuki dance in which our Uncle Joe is a leading performer.

And if there’s not really a war effort, why stick Americans with the cost of a phony war? Seems unpatriotic to me, but that’s today’s Democrat Party for you.

Critical Race Theory: Where It Really Leads

Excuses, excuses, excuses.

It pains me to write this. But I must.

Where will critical race theory get blacks? Right where Dov Fischer predicts:

[T]he same disadvantaged groups who today rely on blaming instead of self-help will then be at the same exact rung on the social order that they are today, just as 50 years of racism-free society and Great Society “entitlements” have not accomplished equality of results today, even as newcomers from Asia entered this country these past 50 and 60 years and leap-frogged those already here.

Blacks, on the whole, are not where they are because of whitey, but because of their genes and culture.

Consider the experience of Latinos in America. Latinos are also “persons of color”. They are not only more intelligent than blacks, on average, but they are also, on average, harder working, more self-reliant, and more observant of traditional morality. Instead of whining about their fate, Latinos do something about it.

Consider Jews, who have been subjected to violence and discrimination in this country. (And many of them are survivors and descendants of the Holocaust, which puts slavery in the shade.) Jews are where they are — generally more prosperous, learned, and respected than blacks — because of their genes and culture.

It speaks volumes that the proponents of CRT want to blame not only white slave-holders and white segregationsists for the plight of blacks, but also schoolchildren whose only sin is “whiteness”. For shame.

Some blacks understand the biased narrative that underlies critical race theory, and warn against it because it stands in the way of improvement from within. Glenn Loury is one of those blacks.

Mass Murder: Reaping What Was Sown

What (most) politicians dare not say about mass shootings.

Guns have never been in short supply in America. What has been in short supply is loving but strict upbringing by both parents (one man and one woman).

When did mass shootings start? In 1966, when Charles Whitman, an abused child of an abusive father killed and wounded four dozen persons, mostly by gunfire, before being killed by police.

Whitman — in method and madness — was a harbinger of what now seems to be an epidemic.

The cure for the epidemic isn’t “gun control” or “red flag” laws, both of which are demonstrably failed policies. It is a moral rebirth of the nation, which is unlikely to happen as long as leftists and “establishment” types are in charge.

For a lengthier treatment of this subject, complete with (slightly out of date) statistics, see this.

A New Political Pardigm?

A cyber-age pipe dream.

Nothing is new under the Sun, the saying goes. That’s probably true of politics because history is littered with failed political systems, ranging from the defunct totalitarian regimes of the 20th century to the myriad anarchistic communes that have sputtered out like candles in a strong wind.

The republic that we have been unable to keep is on the way out, too.

What will take its place? Loose confederations of States, defined by traditional geographic boundaries? Virtual states, bound together in quasi-contractual and ever-shifting economic, social, and jurisprudential relationships that cut across traditional polities and span continents?

We live in interesting times.

Will Texas Secede?

I’m rooting for it.

Governor Abbott has been making some bold moves with respect to illegal immigration. His spring-loaded anti-abortion law, which was triggered in the wake of Dobbs, was upheld by the Texas Supreme Court. And his attitude toward Washington is clearly antagonistic, as is the attitude of a majority of Texans, especially those who live outside the big four metro areas: Houston, Dallas-Forth Worth, San Antonio, and Austin.

Now comes a recent poll by SurveyUSA, which finds that (among 625 Texans polled),

  • 60 percent would support a peaceful secession by Texas (poll #2).

  • 80 percent do not want to live in a country that includes Democrat-controlled States (poll #3).

It won’t take much to push Texas over the edge, and the Dems in Washington seem poised to apply the necessary push.

It’s too bad that I no longer live in Texas. As a resident of Austin I would especially relish the wailing and gnashing of teeth by that over-rated city’s denizens.

My War on the Misuse of "Probability"

Bettors beware.

INTRODUCTION

A probability is a statement about a very large number of like events, each of which has an unpredictable (random) outcome. Probability, properly understood, says nothing about the outcome of an individual event. It certainly says nothing about what will happen next in a sequence of random events of a given kind.

Consider this: A fair coin comes up heads with a probability of 0.5, and comes up tails with the same probability. But those aren’t statements about the outcome of the next coin toss. No, they’re statements about the approximate frequencies of the occurrence of heads and tails in a large number of tosses. The next coin toss will eventuate in heads or tails, but not 0.5 heads and 0.5 tails (except in the rare and unpredictable case of a coin landing on edge and staying there).

A person who chooses to place a bet on a coin toss should disregard the irrelevant and misleading idea that the probability of the next toss coming up heads (or tails) is 0.5. He should simply bet an amount that he is willing to lose, or to make a series of bets with an aggregate value that he is willing to lose.

There’s a vast gap between routine processes of the kind to which probabilities attach — coin tosses, for example — and the complexities of human activity. Human activity is too complex and dependent on intentions and willful actions to be characterized (properly) by statements about the probability of this or that action.

It is fatuous to say, for example, that a war on the scale of World War II is improbable because such a war has occurred only once in human history. By that reasoning, one could have said confidently in 1938 that a war on the scale of World War II could never occur because there had been no such war in human history.

A SINGLE EVENT DOESN’T HAVE A PROBABILITY

A believer in single-event probabilities takes the view that a single flip of a coin or roll of a dice has a probability. I do not. A probability represents the frequency with which an outcome occurs over the very long run, and it is only an average that conceals random variations.

The outcome of a single coin flip can’t be reduced to a percentage or probability. It can only be described in terms of its discrete, mutually exclusive possibilities: heads (H) or tails (T). The outcome of a single roll of a die or pair of dice can only be described in terms of the number of points that may come up, 1 through 6 or 2 through 12.

Yes, the expected frequencies of H, T, and and various point totals can be computed by simple mathematical operations. But those are only expected frequencies. They say nothing about the next coin flip or dice roll, nor do they more than approximate the actual frequencies that will occur over the next 100, 1,000, or 10,000 such events.

Of what value is it to know that the probability of H is 0.5 when H fails to occur in 11 consecutive flips of a fair coin? Of what value is it to know that the probability of rolling a  7 is 0.167 — meaning that 7 comes up every 6 rolls, on average — when 7 may not appear for 56 consecutive rolls? These examples are drawn from simulations of 10,000 coin flips and 1,000 dice rolls. They are simulations that I ran once, not simulations that I cherry-picked from many runs. (The Excel file is at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FABVTiB_qOe-WqMQkiGFj2f70gSu6a82/. Coin flips are at the first tab, dice rolls are at the second tab.)

Let’s take another example, one that is more interesting and has generated much controversy of the years. It’s the Monty Hall problem,

a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, loosely based on the American television game show Let’s Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall. The problem was originally posed (and solved) in a letter by Steve Selvin to the American Statistician in 1975…. It became famous as a question from a reader’s letter quoted in Marilyn vos Savant’s “Ask Marilyn” column in Parade magazine in 1990 … :

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice

Vos Savant’s response was that the contestant should switch to the other door…. Under the standard assumptions, contestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of winning the car, while contestants who stick to their initial choice have only a 1/3 chance.

Vos Savant’s answer is correct, but only if the contestant is allowed to play an unlimited number of games. A player who adopts a strategy of “switch” in every game will, in the long run, win about 2/3 of the time (explanation here). That is, the player has a better chance of winning if he chooses “switch” rather than “stay”.

Read the preceding paragraph carefully and you will spot the logical defect that underlies the belief in single-event probabilities: The long-run winning strategy (“switch”) is transformed into a “better chance” to win a particular game. What does that mean? How does an average frequency of 2/3 improve one’s chances of winning a particular game? It doesn’t. Game results are utterly random; that is, the average frequency of 2/3 has no bearing on the outcome of a single game.

I’ll try to drive the point home by returning to the coin-flip game, with money thrown into the mix. A $1 bet on H means a gain of $1 if H turns up, and a loss of $1 if T turns up. The expected value of the bet — if repeated over a very large number of trials — is zero. The bettor expects to win and lose the same number of times, and to walk away no richer or poorer than when he started. And for a very large number of games, the bettor will walk away approximately (but not necessarily exactly) neither richer nor poorer than when he started. How many games? In the simulation of 10,000 games mentioned earlier, H occurred 50.6 percent of the time. A very large number of games is probably at least 100,000.

Let us say, for the sake of argument, that a bettor has played 100,00 coin-flip games at $1 a game and come out exactly even. What does that mean for the play of the next game? Does it have an expected value of zero?

To see why the answer is “no”, let’s make it interesting and say that the bet on the next game — the next coin flip — is $10,000. The size of the bet should wonderfully concentrate the bettor’s mind. He should now see the situation for what it really is: There are two possible outcomes, and only one of them will be realized. An average of the two outcomes is meaningless. The single coin flip doesn’t have a “probability” of 0.5 H and 0.5 T and an “expected payoff” of zero. The coin will come up either H or T, and the bettor will either lose $10,000 or win $10,000.

To repeat: The outcome of a single coin flip doesn’t have an expected value for the bettor. It has two possible values, and the bettor must decide whether he is willing to lose $10,000 on the single flip of a coin.

By the same token (or coin), the outcome of a single roll of a pair of dice doesn’t have a 1-in-6 probability of coming up 7. It has 36 possible outcomes and 11 possible point totals, and the bettor must decide how much he is willing to lose if he puts his money on the wrong combination or outcome.

In summary, it is a logical fallacy to ascribe a probability to a single event. A probability represents the observed or computed average value of a very large number of like events. A single event cannot possess that average value. A single event has a finite number of discrete and mutually exclusive possible outcomes. Those outcomes will not “average out” in that single event. Only one of them will obtain, like Schrödinger’s cat.

To say or suggest that the outcomes will average out — which is what a probability implies — is tantamount to saying that Jack Sprat and his wife were neither skinny nor fat because their body-mass indices averaged to a normal value. It is tantamount to saying that one can’t drown by walking across a pond with an average depth of 1 foot, when that average conceals the existence of a 100-foot-deep hole.

It should go without saying that a specific event that might occur — rain tomorrow, for example — doesn’t have a probability.

WHAT ABOUT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION?

Weather forecasters (meteorologists) are constantly saying things like “there’s an 80-percent probability of precipitation (PoP) in __________ tomorrow”. What do such statements mean? Not much:

It is not surprising that this issue is difficult for the general public, given that it is debated even within the scientific community. Some propose a “frequentist” interpretation: there will be at least a minimum amount of rain on 80% of days with weather conditions like they are today. Although preferred by many scientists, this explanation may be particularly difficult for the general public to grasp because it requires regarding tomorrow as a class of events, a group of potential tomorrows. From the perspective of the forecast user, however, tomorrow will happen only once. A perhaps less abstract interpretation is that PoP reflects the degree of confidence that the forecaster has that it will rain. In other words, an 80% chance of rain means that the forecaster strongly believes that there will be at least a minimum amount of rain tomorrow. The problem, from the perspective of the general public, is that when PoP is forecasted, none of these interpretations is specified.

There are clearly some interpretations that are not correct. The percentage expressed in PoP neither refers directly to the percent of area over which precipitation will fall nor does it refer directly to the percent of time precipitation will be observed on the forecast day Although both interpretations are clearly wrong, there is evidence that the general public holds them to varying degrees. Such misunderstandings are critical because they may affect the decisions that people make. If people misinterpret the forecast as percent time or percent area, they maybe more inclined to take precautionary action than are those who have the correct probabilistic interpretation, because they think that it will rain somewhere or some time tomorrow. The negative impact of such misunderstandings on decision making, both in terms of unnecessary precautions as well as erosion in user trust, could well eliminate any potential benefit of adding uncertainty information to the forecast. [Susan Joslyn, Nimor Nadav-Greenberg, and Rebecca M. Nichols, “Probability of Precipitations: Assessment and Enhancement of End-User Understanding“, Journal of the American Meteorological Society, February 2009, citations omitted]

The frequentist interpretation is close to being correct, but it still involves a great deal of guesswork. Rainfall in a particular location is influenced by many variables (e.g., atmospheric pressure, direction and rate of change of atmospheric pressure, ambient temperature, local terrain, presence or absence of bodies of water, vegetation, moisture content of the atmosphere, height of clouds above the terrain, depth of cloud cover). It is nigh unto impossible to say that today’s (or tomorrow’s or next week’s) weather conditions are like (or will be like) those that in the past resulted in rainfall in a particular location 80 percent of the time.

That leaves the Bayesian interpretation, in which the forecaster combines some facts (e.g., the presence or absence of a low-pressure system in or toward the area, the presence or absence of a flow of water vapor in or toward the area) with what he has observed in the past to arrive at a guess about future weather. He then attaches a probability to his guess to indicate the strength of his confidence in it.

Thus:

Bayesian probability represents a level of certainty relating to a potential outcome or idea. This is in contrast to a frequentist probability that represents the frequency with which a particular outcome will occur over any number of trials.

An event with Bayesian probability of .6 (or 60%) should be interpreted as stating “With confidence 60%, this event contains the true outcome”, whereas a frequentist interpretation would view it as stating “Over 100 trials, we should observe event X approximately 60 times.”

It is impossible to attach a probability — as properly defined earlier — to something that hasn’t happened, and may not happen. So when you read or hear a statement like “the probability of rain tomorrow is 80 percent”, you should mentally translate it into language like this:

X guesses that Y will (or will not) happen at time Z, and the “probability” that he attaches to his guess  indicates his degree of confidence in it.

The guess may be well-informed by systematic observation of relevant events, but it remains a guess. As most Americans have learned and relearned over the years, when rain has failed to materialize or has spoiled an outdoor event that was supposed to be rain-free.

BUT AREN’T SOME THINGS MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN THAN OTHERS?

Of course. But only one thing of a kind will happen at a given time and place.

If a person walks across a shooting range where live ammunition is being used, his is more likely to be killed than if he walks across the same patch of ground when no one is shooting. And a clever analyst could concoct a probability of a person’s being shot by writing an equation that includes such variables as his size, the speed with which he walks, the number of shooters, their rate of fire, and the distance across the shooting range.

What would the probability estimate mean? It would mean that if a very large number of persons walked across the shooting range under identical conditions, approximately S percent of them would be shot. But the clever analyst cannot specify which of the walkers would be among the S percent.

Here’s another way to look at it. One person wearing head-to-toe bullet-proof armor could walk across the range a large number of times and expect to be hit by a bullet on S percent of his crossings. But the hardy soul wouldn’t know on which of the crossings he would be hit.

Suppose the hardy soul became a foolhardy one and made a bet that he could cross the range without being hit. Further, suppose that S is estimated to be 0.75; that is, 75 percent of a string of walkers would be hit, or a single (bullet-proof) walker would be hit on 75 percent of his crossings. Knowing the value of S, the foolhardy fellow offers to pay out $1 million dollars if he crosses the range unscathed — one time — and claim $4 million (for himself or his estate) if he is shot. That’s an even-money bet, isn’t it?

No it isn’t. This situation is exactly analogous to the $10,000 bet on a single coin flip, discussed above. But I will dissect this one in a different way, to the same end.

The bet should be understood for what it is, an either-or-proposition. The foolhardy walker will either lose $1 million or win $4 million. The bettor (or bettors) who take the other side of the bet will either win $1 million or lose $4 million.

As anyone with elementary reading and reasoning skills should be able to tell, those possible outcomes are not the same as the outcome that would obtain (approximately) if the foolhardy fellow could walk across the shooting range 1,000 times. If he could, he would come very close to breaking even, as would those who bet against him.

To put it as simply as possible:

When an event has more than one possible outcome, a single trial cannot replicate the average outcome of a large number of trials (replications of the event).

It follows that the average outcome of a large number of trials — the probability of each possible outcome — cannot occur in a single trial.

It is therefore meaningless to ascribe a probability to any possible outcome of a single trial.

MODELING AND PROBABILITY

Sometimes, when things interact, the outcome of the interactions will conform to an expected value — if that value is empirically valid. For example, if a pot of pure water is put over a flame at sea level, the temperature of the water will rise to 212 degrees Fahrenheit and water molecules will then begin to escape into the air in a gaseous form (steam).  If the flame is kept hot enough and applied long enough, the water in the pot will continue to vaporize until the pot is empty.

That isn’t a probabilistic description of boiling. It’s just a description of what’s known to happen to water under certain conditions.

But it bears a similarity to a certain kind of probabilistic reasoning. For example, in a paper that I wrote long ago about warfare models, I said this:

Consider a five-parameter model, involving the conditional probabilities of detecting, shooting at, hitting, and killing an opponent — and surviving, in the first place, to do any of these things. Such a model might easily yield a cumulative error of a hemibel [a factor of 3], given a twenty five percent error in each parameter.

Mathematically, 1.255 = 3.05. Which is true enough, but also misleadingly simple.

A mathematical model of that kind rests on the crucial assumption that the component probabilities are based on observations of actual events occurring in similar conditions. It is safe to say that the values assigned to the parameters of warfare models, econometric models, sociological models, and most other models outside the realm of physics, chemistry, and other “hard” sciences fail to satisfy that assumption.

Further, a mathematical model yields only the expected (average) outcome of a large number of events occurring under conditions similar to those from which the component probabilities were derived. (A Monte Carlo model merely yields a quantitative estimate of the spread around the average outcome.) Again, this precludes most models outside the “hard” sciences, and even some within that domain.

The moral of the story: Don’t be gulled by a statement about the expected outcome of an event, even when the statement seems to be based on a rigorous mathematical formula. Look behind the formula for an empirical foundation. And not just any empirical foundation, but one that is consistent with the situation to which the formula is being applied.

And when you’ve done that, remember that the formula expresses a point estimate around which there’s a wide — very wide — range of uncertainty. Which was the real point of the passage quoted above. The only sure things in life are death, taxes, and regulation.

PROBABILITY VS. OPPORTUNITY

Warfare models, as noted, deal with interactions among large numbers of things. If a large unit of infantry encounters another large unit of enemy infantry, and the units exchange gunfire, it is reasonable to expect the following consequences:

  • As the numbers of infantrymen increase, more of them will be shot, for a given rate of gunfire.

  • As the rate of gunfire increases, more of the infantrymen will be shot, for a given number of infantrymen.

These consequences don’t represent probabilities, though an inveterate modeler will try to represent them with a probabilistic model. They represent opportunities — opportunities for bullets to hit bodies. It is entirely possible that some bullets won’t hit bodies and some bodies won’t be hit by bullets. But more bullets will hit bodies if there are more bodies in a given space. And a higher proportion of a given number of bodies will be hit as more bullets enter a given space.

That’s all there is to it.

It has nothing to do with probability. The actual outcome of a past encounter is the actual outcome of that encounter, and the number of casualties has everything to do with the minutiae of the encounter and nothing to do with probability. A fortiori, the number of casualties resulting from a possible future encounter would have everything to do with the minutiae of that encounter and nothing to do with probability. Given the uniqueness of any given encounter, it would be wrong to characterize its outcome (e.g., number of casualties per infantryman) as a probability.