Stocks for the Long Run? (Part II)

In “Stocks for the Long Run?” I say that

unless the course of the regulatory-welfare state is reversed, a prolonged downward shift in the real rate of GDP growth is in the works — probably to about 2 percent. At that rate, expect a continuation of the present trend [since 2000] — stock-price “growth” [adjusted for inflation] of about -4 percent a year.

Be sure to note the minus sign in front of the 4.

Stocks are not bound to rise predictably over time, despite graphs like the next one, which I constructed from the data set cited in “Stocks for the Long Run?”. “Price” (the blue line) traces the real growth in the value of S&P Composite Index; “price + dividends” (the orange line) traces real growth in the value of the S&P Composite Index plus dividends paid on the stocks comprised in the index; “dividends reinvested” (the green line) traces the real value of the S&P Composite Index if dividends had been reinvested in shares of the stocks comprised in the index (green line):

From 1871 through 2010, the average annual increase in the value of the S&P Composite, with dividends reinvested, was 6.7 percent. This kind of hypothetical long-term “return” is cited often as a reason for buying and holding stocks. But a real return of 6.7 percent is not graven in stone, as the following chart indicates.

After a period of decline in the early 1900s, the cumulative rate of return on the S&P Composite, with dividends reinvested, dropped to 5.3 percent in 1920, jumped to 8.3 percent in 1929, plummeted to 5.4 percent in 1932, returned to 7.6 percent in 1966, dipped to 6.2 percent in 1982, climbed back to 7.4 percent in 2000, and (as noted above) dropped to 6.7 percent by the end of 2010. In other words, long-run averages can be moved considerably by short run bouts of what I call “irrational exuberance and rational pessimism.”

Moreover, as a practical matter, the buy-hold-reinvest strategy would not work if there were a massive influx of stock-buyers intent on buying, holding, and reinvesting dividends. They would be chasing illusory returns because massive purchases of stocks would not be rewarded (quickly, at least) by proportionate increases in corporate earnings, which is the main driver of stock prices in the long run. The more likely result would be a bubble — like those of the late 1920s and late 1990s — which would burst, leading to lower stock prices and a greater reluctance to invest in stocks.

More realistic measures of expected returns from buying and holding stocks are depicted by the “price” and “price + dividends” lines. At the end of 2010, the average annual real return on the S&P Composite Index since 1871 was 2 percent. With dividends, the average annual real return was 2.3 percent. But almost no one — not even an institutional investor — is likely to hold stocks in the S&P Composite Index for 140 years.

It makes sense, therefore, to consider shorter holding periods: 10, 20, and 30 years.

If history is any guide, consistently positive real returns on stocks are available only to the relatively rare investor who adheres doggedly to the buy-hold-reinvest strategy for 20 years or longer.

But history is not a reliable guide because — unless the course of the regulatory-welfare state is reversed — the rate of GDP growth will continue to fall, and stock prices are likely to fall in sympathy.

Related posts:
The Price of Government
The Price of Government Redux
The Mega-Depression
As Goes Greece
The Real Burden of Government
The Illusion of Prosperity and Stability
The “Forthcoming Financial Collapse”
Estimating the Rahn Curve: Or, How Government Inhibits Economic Growth
The Deficit Commission’s Deficit of Understanding
The Bowles-Simpson Report
The Bowles-Simpson Band-Aid
The Stagnation Thesis
America’s Financial Crisis Is Now
Why Are Interest Rates So Low?
Economic Growth Since World War II
The Commandeered Economy
Stocks for the Long Run?

We Owe It to Ourselves

Don Boudreaux of Cafe Hayek is having a good time with Paul Krugman’s assertion that “U.S. debt is, to a large extent, money we owe to ourselves.” This bold claim comes in the midst of yet another of Krugman’s seemingly infinite number of columns touting deficit spending as a panacea for what ails the American economy.

Boudreaux’s posts (to date) are here, here, here, here, here, and here. I will not try to match Boudreaux’s deep and weighty commentary on Krugman’s outrageous assertion. Instead, I offer the following non-academic observations for Mr. Krugman’s consideration:

1. Who are “we”? If government borrows money and spends it on goodies for Congressman X, Y, and Z’s districts, how do I get my cut? Or does the happiness generated in Congressman X, Y, and Z’s districts simply radiate in waves across the country, eventually reaching me and making me feel better?

2. I know of no magical power that enables government to ensure that deficit spending absorbs unemployed resources without diverting already-employed resources from productive uses. So this leads me to ask why it wouldn’t be better to take the borrowed money and flush it down a toilet, rather than sending it to Congressman X, Y, and Z’s districts.

3. Anyway, if the borrowed money makes (some) people in Congressman X, Y, and Z’s districts better off, why is it that “we” (i.e. the rest of us and/or our descendants) end up repaying the debt that made those others better off? I don’t understand how I “owe it to myself” when (a) I didn’t ask to borrow the money and (b) I gained nothing as a result of the borrowing.

You might claim that my personal wishes are of no account because Congress and the president are duly elected by majorities of voters. But that is tantamount to saying that Congress and the president possess a kind of omniscient super-consciousness that somehow overrides the harm, hate, and discontent that flow from their acts. I don’t think you’d agree with that, given your views about the many and various “sins” committed by the Bush administration, usually with the connivance of Congress. Or, perhaps only Democrats possess omniscient super-consciousness. Yes, that must be it.

With regard to my not having gained as a result of borrowing, perhaps you think that I ought to be happy simply because (some) people in Congressman X, Y, and Z’s districts are happier as a result of deficit spending. Perhaps I should be, but I am just a curmudgeon who has 12 grandchildren who will be less well off because of the extra taxes that I, their parents, and/or they will pay for the privilege of making some strangers happier. Are you telling me that you — or anyone — has a way of making everyone happier by making a lot of people  less happy? Or are you telling me that you don’t care who is made less happy as long as government does what you think it should do? My money is on the latter proposition.

If I do, indeed, owe some portion of the U.S. debt to myself, I hereby forgive my share of the debt and absolve myself of any obligation to pay it.

Stocks for the Long Run?

This post examines the relationship between stock prices and GDP and considers the long-term outlook for stock prices. I begin with a question: Do swings in stock prices — as as measured by a broad index like the S&P Composite — portend swings in the rate and direction of economic growth?

Here is a chart of constant-dollar GDP, indexed to its value in 1871, which I derived from estimates of constant-dollar GDP that are available at What Was U.S. GDP Then?:

Drawing on the data set for Robert Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance — a data set that Shiller keeps up to date — I graphed the real value of the  S&P Composite Index and identified major turning points in the constant-dollar value of the S&P Composite:

A comparison of the two charts suggests that stock prices react strongly to transient events (e.g., shifts in the rate of inflation and consumer confidence), but that there is not a strong relationship between GDP and the daily, weekly, monthly, or quarterly gyrations of the stock market. There is a weak but statistically significant correlation between annual changes in stock prices and GDP, which is evident in the following comparison of stock prices and GDP, dating back to 1950, which I derived from historical prices of the S&P 500 (available here) and estimates of constant-dollar GDP (available here).

In words, the first three graphs suggest that stock prices, measured broadly, oscillate jaggedly around the GDP trend, in cycles of irrational exuberance and rational pessimism.

On closer inspection of the long-term trends depicted in the first two graphs, I found some evidence that major turns in stock prices mark major turns in the course of economic growth. I should emphasize that the points of coincidence between major turns in stock prices and economic growth are evident only with long hindsight; I advise against attempts to predict the near-term course of GDP by transitory changes in stock prices, and vice versa.

Specifically, I calculated the changes in stock prices and GDP that occurred between the turning points identified in the second graph above, with this result:

Market turning point (Year and month)

Duration of trend (years and months)

Real S&P change (annual rate)

Read GDP change (annual rate)

1877.06

28.07

5.2%

4.4%

1906.01

14.11

-7.7%

1.9%

1920.12

8.09

20.6%

4.0%

1929.09

2.09

-44.9%

-9.4%

1932.06

33.07

6.5%

5.0%

1966.01

16.07

-5.6%

2.7%

1982.08

18.00

12.0%

3.3%

2000.08

11.04

-3.8%

1.5%

2011.12

(December 2011 probably is not a turning point. I include the period from August 2000 to the present only to show that the trend in stock prices since August 2000 has mirrored the trend in GDP growth since that date.)

The relationship between rates of change in real GDP and stock prices seems to be robust:

A similar relationship holds even with the removal of the “outlier” (1929-1932):

Both correlations are statistically significant, despite the small sample sizes. And they are similar to the following (also significant) correlation, which is drawn from the data presented in the third chart above:

The bottom line is that stock prices can decline even as GDP rises. A long-term, downward shift in the real rate of GDP growth is likely to trigger a significant downward shift in the movement of stock prices.

In fact, unless the course of the regulatory-welfare state is reversed, a prolonged downward shift in the real rate of GDP growth is in the works — probably to about 2 percent. At that rate, expect a continuation of the present trend — stock-price “growth” of about -4 percent a year.

If you think that I am being unduly pessimistic, look at the trend for 1906-1920 (the aftermath of Progressivism’s rise) and the trend for 1966-1982 (the aftermath of the formation of the Great Society). What we have today is a vast regulatory-welfare state built on the foundations of Progressivism, the New Deal, the Great Society.

Happy New Year!

*   *   *

Related posts:
The Price of Government
The Price of Government Redux
The Mega-Depression
As Goes Greece
The Real Burden of Government
The Illusion of Prosperity and Stability
The “Forthcoming Financial Collapse”
Estimating the Rahn Curve: Or, How Government Inhibits Economic Growth
The Deficit Commission’s Deficit of Understanding
The Bowles-Simpson Report
The Bowles-Simpson Band-Aid
The Stagnation Thesis
America’s Financial Crisis Is Now
Why Are Interest Rates So Low?
Economic Growth Since World War II
The Commandeered Economy

Extreme Economism

Economism is a theory

that regards economics as the main factor in society, ignoring or reducing to simplistic economic terms other factors such as culture, nationality, etc. (definition 1.a, here)

The “etc.” encompasses family and friendship, in the eyes of the economistic economists who advise the giving of cash instead of items that the recipient is meant to enjoy. Economistic economists are the kind who mistake wealth-maximization for rational behavior.

What is irrational behavior? Whatever does not lead to the accumulation of wealth, in the view of these money-besotted economists. In that respect they are much like leftists in their condemnation of behavior of which they disapprove. Maverick Philosopher captures the mindset:

Suppose one genuinely enjoys smoking and is willing to run the risk of disease and perhaps shorten one’s life by say five or ten years in order to secure certain benefits in the present. There is nothing irrational about such a course of action. One acts rationally — in one sense of ‘rational’ — if one chooses means conducive to the ends one has in view. If your end in view is to live as long as possible, then don’t smoke. If that is not your end, if you are willing to trade some highly uncertain future years of life for some certain pleasures here and now, and if you enjoy smoking, then smoke.

The epithet ‘irrational’ is attached with more justice to the fascists of the Left, the loon-brained tobacco wackos, who, in the grip of their misplaced moral enthusiasm, demonize the acolytes of the noble weed. The church of liberalism must have its demon, and his name is tobacco. I should also point out that smoking, like keeping and bearing arms, is a liberty issue. Is liberty a value? I’d say it is. Yet another reason to oppose the liberty-bashing loons of the Left and the abomination of Obamacare with its individual mandate….

Smoking and drinking can bring you to death’s door betimes. Ask Bogie who died at 56 of the synergistic effects of weed and hooch. Life’s a gamble. A crap shoot no matter how you slice it. Hear the Hitch:

Writing is what’s important to me, and anything that helps me do that — or enhances and prolongs and deepens and sometimes intensifies argument and conversation — is worth it to me. So I was knowingly taking a risk. I wouldn’t recommend it to others.

Exactly right.

(Bill Vallicella, “Cigarettes, Rationality, and Hitchens,” December 28, 2011)

Returning to economistic economists, I note that they are also the kind who write about gift-giving at Christmas in this vein:

I am not sure why people give each other store-bought gifts instead of cash, which is never the wrong size or color. Some say that we give gifts because it shows that we took the time to shop. But we could accomplish the same thing by giving the cash value of our shopping time, showing that we took the time to earn the money. (Steven Landsburg, The Armchair Economist, .pdf version here)

Similarly:

A potentially important microeconomic aspect of gift-giving is that gifts may be mismatched with the recipients’ preferences. In the standard microeconomic framework of consumer choice, the best a gift-giver can do with, say, $10 is to duplicate the choice that the recipient would have made. While it is possible for a giver to choose a gift which the recipient ultimately values above its price — for example, if the recipient is not perfectly informed — it is more likely that the gift will leave the recipient worse off than if she had made her own consumption choice with an equal amount of cash. In short, gift-giving is a potential source of deadweight loss….

Estimates in this paper indicate that between a tenth and a third of the value of holiday gifts is destroyed by gift-giving. Because average losses of at leas 10 percent hold for all gift price ranges in the sample, the lower-bound proportional loss estimates may be reasonably applied to other populations. While the generality of these results is not settled, the deadweight losses arising from holiday gift-giving may well be large: holiday expenditures in 1992 totaled $38 billion according to one estimate.

If between a tenth and a third of this spending was wasted, then the deadweight loss of 1992 holiday gift-giving was between $4 billion and $$13 billion. (Joel Waldfogel, “The Deadweight Loss of Christmas,” The American Economic Review, Volume 83, Issue 5 [December 1993])

A current estimate of the deadweight loss of holiday gift-giving is “$46-$152 billion worth of holiday wastage, potentially equivalent to an entire year’s worth of output from Iowa,” according to Matthew Yglesias (“Do Not Buy Dad a Tie,” Slate, December 20, 2011).

The foregoing analyses and estimates hinge on a model of gift-giving that assumes away (a) the value derived by the giver of a gift — the pleasure of giving. — and (b) the value derived from the recipient over and above any value that he derives from the gift itself — namely, appreciation for the gift-giver’s thoughtfulness and effort. Moreover, the conclusion that holiday gift-giving is wasteful rests on a false premise, namely, that the devaluation of gifts by some recipients negates the added value attributed to gifts by other recipients. In other words, the condemnation of holiday gift-giving on economistic grounds manifests a belief in a social-welfare function, wherein A’s unhappiness can be weighed against B’s happiness. Once again, we see a strong resemblance between economistic economists and leftists. (In fact, I have written before about Landsburg’s misguided embrace of the social-welfare function.)

But let us take economistic economist’s view of the world and see where it leads. Imagine five persons who are mutually acquainted or related, and assume that they have taken the advice to give each other cash. Part A of the following table depicts the result of their exchanges of cash. Everyone gives everyone else some amount of money, but the amounts vary in total and detail from person to person.

Now, an economistic economist would look at the result and consider it irrational because there were 10 instances in which reciprocal gifts of cash exactly offset each other (e.g., A gave B $10 and B gave A $10). That would lead the economistic economist to suggest that the trouble and expense of giving offsetting gifts should be eliminated. The result, shown in Part B, yields the same bottom line for each person, but only 10 gifts of cash are given.

But wait, there are still unnecessary exchanges; for example, A gives C $10 and C, in effect, give $5 of that back to A. So, the next step, shown in Part C, is to reduce exchanges to their net amounts; for example A gives C $5 and C gives A nothing. This further reduces the trouble and expense of gift-giving because the number of transactions has been halved again — from 10 to 5.

A. Initial exchanges — 20 gifts:

Givers

A

B

    C

D

E

Receivers

A

10

5

10

15

B

10

5

5

15

C

10

5

15

10

D

10

15

15

5

E

10

20

15

5

Given

40

50

40

35

45

Received

40

35

40

45

50

Net

0

-15

0

10

5

*******  ************** **** ***** ********* ********* *********
B. After eliminating identical exchanges — 10 gifts:

Givers

A

B

C

D

E

Receivers

A

5

15

B

5

15

C

10

10

D

15

E

10

20

15

Given

20

35

20

5

40

Received

20

20

20

15

45

Net

0

-15

0

10

5

 ******* *************** **** ***** ********* ********* *********
C. After reducing exchanges to net amounts — 5 gifts:

Givers

A

B

C

D

E

Receivers

A

5

B

C

5

D

10

E

5

5

Given

5

15

5

0

5

Received

5

0

5

10

10

Net

0

-15

0

10

5

In the beginning, before the exchanges of cash depicted in Part A, there was an occasion that was filled with anticipation and much happiness. The “logic” of economism has reduced it to a cold, joyless exercise in computation. Bah, humbug!

Finally, I must note that — in my experience — most economists are economistic. This is from a post that I wrote more than seven years ago:

The idea of going to lunch with colleagues is to have some laughs, some good conversation (not about economics), and a few beers to help you coast through the afternoon. With economists, however, lunch always went something like this: Carping at the waiter about what’s not on the menu, followed by carping at the waiter about whether he brought the right orders to the table, followed by carefully dissecting the bill to ensure that everyone pays for precisely what he ordered, followed by computing the tip down to the last red cent instead of rounding up to the nearest dollar out of consideration for the beleaguered waiter. I’d rather have lunch with undertakers.

*   *   *

Related posts:
Why I Don’t Hang Around with Economists
The Rationality Fallacy
Greed, Cosmic Justice, and Social Welfare
Positive Rights and Cosmic Justice
Inventing “Liberalism”
Utilitarianism, “Liberalism,” and Omniscience
Utilitarianism vs. Liberty
Beware of Libertarian Paternalists
Landsburg Is Half-Right
Negative Rights, Social Norms, and the Constitution
Rights, Liberty, the Golden Rule, and the Legitimate State
The Mind of a Paternalist
Accountants of the Soul
Rawls Meets Bentham
Enough of “Social Welfare”
The Case of the Purblind Economist
The Arrogance of (Some) Economists

How Government Inhibits Economic Growth: An Empirical Estimate

I have updated “Estimating the Rahn Curve: Or, How Government Inhibits Economic Growth.”

The Commandeered Economy

Government spending — federal, State, and local — represents the confiscation of resources from the private sector. Any reasonable measure of government spending includes transfer payments (mainly Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid), which represent income that is taken from persons who earn it and given to persons who do not earn it.

Here is an overview of the patterns of government spending from 1929 through the third quarter of 2011:


Derived from Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, Tables 1.1.5 (lines 1, 21-25), 3.1 (line 17), and 3.2 (line 22).

Total captures all outlays by the federal government and State and local governments for all purposes, including transfer payments. Total non-defense is simply total spending less defense spending. Federal covers all outlays by the federal government, including transfer payments. State & local represents just that. Transfer payments by all governments are driven mainly by outlays for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which in 2010 accounted for 71 percent of all government spending on “social benefits.” Next is defense, which has been driven mainly by war and the prospect of war. Finally, there is federal non-defense, which is exclusive of transfer payments. This spending enables the federal bureaucracy to perform its non-defense, micromanagement functions: from controlling interest rates and the money supply to regulating the processes and products of America’s businesses to enforcing various forms of discrimination to rewarding well-connected interest groups, and so on into the dark night of fascism.

The rise of government spending began with the onset of the Depression, which saw the federal government supplant State and local governments as the main source of outlays. World War II interrupted but did not break the rising trend in non-defense spending, which has been driven by increases in transfer payments — especially since the inception of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965.

In 1929, on the eve of the Great Depression, government spending of all kinds amounted to 10 percent of GDP, and less than 1 percent of GDP was absorbed by transfer payments. In 1947, following demobilization from World War II, government spending of all kinds was 20 percent of GDP, including 5 percent for transfer payments. Now, total spending consumes about 36 percent of GDP, and transfer payments about 16 percent. All in all, post-World War II spending reflects the dominance of government in the everyday lives of Americans. About 31 percent of GDP goes to non-defense spending by the federal government and State and local governments.

Defense spending — a favored target of “liberals” and pseudo-libertarians — is not where the money is. The stability of total government spending as a percentage of GDP from the end of the Vietnam War until 9/11 was bought by short-changing defense, except during the 1980s. Despite 9/11 and the shallow display of unity that followed it, too many Americans have forgotten the main  lessons of World War II and the Cold War: Victory and deterrence do not come cheaply. And yet, since 1950, when defense spending reached its post-war nadir, it has lagged far behind the growth of government spending and transfer payments (which, illogically, have soared despite significant real growth in GDP):


Derived from sources cited above, by applying the implicit GDP deflator used to compute GDP in chained 2005 dollars (here).

In addition to the burden of non-defense spending,* there is the large and growing burden of regulatory compliance: about $1.1 trillion in 2004, or 10 percent of GDP. In other words, government now absorbs or controls almost one-half of the nation’s economic output.

Additionally, however, there is the hidden cost of output forgone because taxes and regulations have discouraged those behaviors that cause economic growth (e.g., hard work, capital formation, innovation, and entrepreneurship). I have estimated that were it not for those disincentives GDP would have grown to more than three times its present level.

The iceberg, once again, proves to be vastly larger than its visible tip. In Bastiat‘s words,

a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

The unseen effects — the theft of Americans’ liberty and prosperity — had been foreseen by some (e.g., Tocqueville and Hayek), but ignorance and power-lust prevailed over their prescience.

America’s economy has not been commandeered by the military-industrial complex; it has been commandeered by a far more insidious complex of economically illiterate voters, interest groups, social-engineering “intellectuals,” and power-lusting politicians.

__________

* Defense is a valuable and legitimate “social service,” as I discuss in this post and the posts listed at the end of it. Justice also is a valuable and legitimate “social service,” but spending on police, courts, etc., accounts for only a small fraction of non-defense spending in the U.S.

*   *   *

Related posts, on the subject of defense spending:
Not Enough Boots
Defense as the Ultimate Social Service
I Have an Idea
The Price of Liberty
How to View Defense Spending
The Best Defense . . .
Not Enough Boots: The Why of It
Delusions of Preparedness
A Grand Strategy for the United States
The Folly of Pacifism
Why We Should (and Should Not) Fight
Rating America’s Wars
Transnationalism and National Defense
The Folly of Pacifism, Again
September 20, 2001: Hillary Clinton Signals the End of “Unity”

On other subjects, see the list at the bottom of “Economic Growth Since World War II.”

More about Merit Goods

This is a follow-up to “Merit Goods, Positive Rights, and Cosmic Justice.” That post was inspired by a post at Austin Frakt’s blog, The Incidental Economist, about which John Goodman had this to say:

Austin, on first reading, I thought you were saying that I (as a taxpayer) should help pay for your daughter’s asthma medication — even though you agree that you can afford to pay for it yourself. Disbelief overcame me, so I read your post a second time. Then I read it a third. Each time, the message was as incomprehensible as on the previous reading.

Is there a persuasive reason why I owe the Frakt household something? If so, it’s not in this post.

Frakt’s response to Goodman:

You owe me nothing. Follow the link to value-based insurance design or find the V-BID center at U Mich. I think you’re looking for trouble where none should exist.

Well, I followed the link, and came away unconvinced that Frakt wants nothing from Goodman or anyone else. Accordingly, I posted this comment (paragraph breaks and emphasis added):

Your post about value-based insurance — to which you refer John Goodman — suggests that by reducing the co-pay on asthma drugs, trips to the ER would be averted, thus reducing the insurance company’s total costs and (possibly) the premiums it must charge its policy holders. If I have that right, it explains your reply to Goodman that “You owe me nothing.” I suspect that what he reacted to — and I would have reacted to similarly — is your assertion that “breathing [is] a merit good, something we all have a right to enjoy.” That assertion is unnecessary to the discussion of value-based insurance. And your use of the term “merit good” strongly suggests that your statement “Asthma medication is exactly the type of health product that should be free, or nearly so, especially for low-income families” is not just a statement about the presumed efficacy of value-based insurance, but advocacy for income redistribution.

In that case, a modified version of Goodman’s reaction is entirely in order, and I subscribe to it: “Is there a persuasive reason why I owe other households something, and what qualifies you (or anyone else) to make that judgment?” The excuse that I might otherwise end up paying for ER services through my taxes or insurance premiums relies on the assumption that ER services are a merit good that ought to be covered by tax subsidies and/or mandated insurance coverage. There is no end to the number of things that can be called merit goods, but calling them merit goods does not disguise the fact that doing so is an excuse for imposing one person’s or group’s preferences and burdens on others.

Those impositions have led to the present state of affairs, in which myriad interest groups pick each others’ pockets — and the pockets of the unfortunate who are not well-represented by an interest group. One truly unfortunate result of that state of affairs — aside from the gross diminution of liberty — is the diversion of resources from uses that would foster greater economic growth and alleviate much of the poverty that provides an excuse, in the first place, for special pleading about merit goods.

Merit Goods, Positive Rights, and Cosmic Justice

A merit good is said to be something that

an individual or society should have on the basis of some concept of need, rather than ability and willingness to pay…. [T]he concept … lies behind many economic actions by governments…. Examples include the provision of food stamps to support nutrition, the delivery of health services to improve quality of life and reduce morbidity, subsidized housing and arguably education….

Sometimes, merit … goods are simply seen as an extension of the idea of externalities. A merit good may be described as a good that has positive externalities associated with it. Thus, an inoculation against a contagious disease may be seen as a merit good. This is because others who may not now catch the disease from the inoculated person also benefit.

[M]erit … goods can be defined in a different way…. The essence of merit … goods is [has] do with … information failure…. This arises because consumer[s] do not perceive quite how good or bad the good is for them: either they do not have the right information or lack relevant information…. [A]merit good is [a] good that is better for a person than the person … realizes.

Other possible rationales for treating some commodities as merit … goods include public-goods aspects of a commodity…

A merit good, in short, is something that someone believes that the state should cause to be given to certain individuals, as a “positive right,” for various reasons: perceived need, externalities, and market failure among them.

But the “right” to something that is not earned or freely given is not a right, as the term is properly understood. It is an extortion by force or the threat of force, either directly (as in the case of outright theft) or though the coercive power of the state. Only a fool or a dishonest person can say that something obtained through extortion is obtained by right, unless that person believes that the victims of extortion are less deserving — less human — than the intended beneficiaries of extortion.

If a right is anything, it is something that all members of a polity can enjoy equally. If some members of a polity are placed above others through force or the threat of force, then the polity has no system of rights; it has a system of arbitrary privileges, dispensed by the state according to the whims of the faction then in power.

Given that a right must be something that all can enjoy equally, a right can only be negative:

  • the right not to have one’s life taken if one is peaceful toward others
  • the right not to be deprived of liberty if one is peaceful toward others
  • the right to the peaceful enjoyment and use of one’s property in the pursuit of one’s life and livelihood.

These negative rights come down to this: the right to be left alone as one leaves others alone.

If “obligations” accompany the right to be left alone, they do so only in the context of voluntary social (and economic) relationships, wherein acts of kindness and charity flow readily among persons who trust and care for each other and do so, in good part, because they observe the right of others to be left alone. These “obligations” are incurred and honored voluntarily, not because a person or group invested with the power of the state decrees them.

Merit goods (“positive rights”), by contrast, are the products of presumption — judgments about who is “needy” and “deserving” — and they are bestowed on some by coercing others. These coercions extend not only to the seizure of income and wealth but also to denials of employment (e.g., affirmative action), free speech (e.g., campaign-finance “reform”), freedom of contract (e.g., mandatory recognition of unions), freedom of association (e.g., forced admission of certain groups to private organizations), freedom of conscience (e.g., forced participation in abortions), and on and on.

The list of “merit goods” that forms the basis for the many and various forms of state-sponsored coercion may not be infinite, but it is exceedingly long. And its length is limited only by the perverse ingenuity of the seekers of “cosmic justice.” What is cosmic justice? I like this example from Thomas Sowell’s speech, “The Quest for Cosmic Justice“:

A fight in which both boxers observe the Marquis of Queensberry rules would be a fair fight, according to traditional standards of fairness, irrespective of whether the contestants were of equal skill, strength, experience or other factors likely to affect the outcome– and irrespective of whether that outcome was a hard-fought draw or a completely one-sided beating.

This would not, however, be a fair fight within the framework of those seeking “social justice,” if the competing fighters came into the ring with very different prospects of success — especially if these differences were due to factors beyond their control….

In a sense, proponents of “social justice” are unduly modest. What they are seeking to correct are not merely the deficiencies of society, but of the cosmos. What they call social justice encompasses far more than any given society is causally responsible for. Crusaders for social justice seek to correct not merely the sins of man but the oversights of God or the accidents of history. What they are really seeking is a universe tailor-made to their vision of equality. They are seeking cosmic justice.

To be a practitioner of cosmic justice, a person must set himself up as a judge of the merit of other persons, without really possessing more than superficial information about those other persons (e.g., that they are “rich” or “poor” by some standard). As I once said of two founders of modern “liberalism,” T.H. Green and L.T. Hobhouse, they are

accountants of the soul….

…(presumably) intelligent persons who believe that their intelligence enables them to peer into the souls of others, and to raise them up [or put them down] through the blunt instrument that is the state.

This is done on in the service of concepts that do not bear close examination, such as externalities, public goods, market failure, and social justice, social welfare, and positive rights. I will not repeat my asseessments of those concepts, but refer you to some of them instead:

Greed, Cosmic Justice, and Social Welfare
Positive Rights and Cosmic Justice
A Short Course in Economics
Social Justice
The Meaning of Liberty
Positive Liberty vs. Liberty
More Social Justice
On Self-Ownership and Desert
Luck-Egalitarianism and Moral Luck
Externalities and Statism

Why Are Interest Rates So Low?

Reissued here.

Vulgar Keynesianism and Capitalism

Reissued here.

The Great Recession Is Barely Over … Maybe

UPDATED 12/22/11

The third estimate of real GDP for the third quarter of 2011 (3Q2011) is $15 billion lower than last month’s advance estimate. The annualized rate of $13,331.6 billion (in chained 2005 dollars) is only $5.6 billion above the estimate for the fourth quarter of 2007 (4Q2007), the last pre-recession quarter.

Based on the third estimate, real GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.011 percent — 11/1000 of one percent — between 4Q2007 and 3Q2011. In other words, real GDP in 3Q2011 is the same as it was in 4Q2007. Whether or not the Great Recession has ended is still up in the air and will not be known (possibly) until the release of GDP estimates for 4Q2011.

Related posts:
The Great Recession is Not Over
The Keynesian Fallacy and Regime Uncertainty
Regime Uncertainty and the Great Recession

A Declaration and Defense of My Prejudices about Governance

I am a pro-defense, conservative libertarian.

By conservative libertarian, I mean that I am a libertarian who understands that liberty depends on the preservation of the traditional institutions of civil society (e.g., marriage, religion, voluntary charity) because it is those institutions that make possible mutual trust, respect, and forbearance. And it is those things that enable a people to coexist peacefully and cooperatively, to their mutual benefit. It is those things — not the statutes, ordinances, codes, and regulations that may be overlaid on them — which constitute the rule of law. Without the rule of law, liberty and the enjoyment of its fruits is impossible.

The alternatives to a robust civil society are chaos, from which warlordism springs, and the police state. Police and courts are a necessary evil, because bad things happen, even where civil society is strong. But, as civil society is weakened by the intrusions of government, police and courts become more necessary because dependence on police and courts to maintain the rule of law further weakens civil society, which leads to the need for even more intrusion by police and courts, and so on, toward the dark night of oppression.

In any event, I part company with those libertarians who believe that private agencies can and should perform the functions of police forces and courts. Private agencies, each acting on behalf of their clients, will sooner or later clash, warlord-style. Or the vacuum of statelessness will be filled by those who seek power for its own sake and for the riches it can bring them. Better an accountable state than an unaccountable warlord.

The same is true when it comes to defense against foreign powers — whether they are states or terrorist groups. Yes, some very wealthy Americans might pool their resources and provide defense, from which everyone might benefit. But the might of a defense force can easily be turned inward and aimed at particular individuals and groups who are out of favor with the proprietors of the defense force.

An accountable, state-run defense force, on the other hand, should be used to defend Americans and their legitimate overseas interests, and to do that decisively. Either get in and win, or stay out. But always remember that staying out — or delaying action — enables an actual or potential enemy to gather strength.

Enough of that. How did I become a libertarian, of the kind that I am?

My disillusionment with the predictably “liberal” worldview that I acquired as an undergraduate came in stages, beginning in the late 1960s. The urban riots that had begun earlier in the decade and reached a zenith in 1968 were evidence of the futility of solving the “black problem” by throwing tax dollars at it. What was needed instead of welfare was robust economic growth and jobs — especially for black males. The intellectual clincher came for me in the mid-1970s, when — as a defense analyst — I grasped the limitations of warfare models.

What is the connection between the limitations of warfare models and the proper role of government? A mathematical model of a fairly well-defined phenomenon — combat involving certain types of weapons — is unlikely to yield an accurate prediction of the outcome of combat. Therefore, it is even more unlikely that emotionally justified government programs — designed mainly to benefit this and that interest group — will perform as predicted. Or, even if they deliver something like the expected benefits, they will also have unanticipated, negative side effects.

The evidence against social and economic engineering is staggering. See, for example, the 144 issues of Regulation that have been published since the magazine’s inception in 1977. Or consider just four salient examples of the social and economic engineering that have had untoward results:

1. Social Security. On the surface, this seems to have helped millions of old persons live more comfortably. It has in fact led people to save less for their retirement, causing them to be more dependent on Social Security and reducing the nation’s rate of saving, with adverse consequences for growth-inducing capital investment. Add to that the inevitable political consequences of a popular program that brings in revenue — the expansion of benefits as a vote-getting measure and the expenditure of “contributions” on other government programs — and you have an explanation for a large chunk of the burgeoning federal deficit.

2. Health care. The creation and expansion of Medicare and Medicaid, coupled with employer-supported health insurance (a result of tax policy), have led to the over-consumption of health-care services with little effect on health. (There is an authoritative, scientific RAND study to support that contention.) It is therefore largely because of government actions that drugs and medical services have become so expensive in the U.S. Another contributor to the apparently high cost of health-care in the U.S. has been the invention and improvement of life- and health-saving drugs, procedures, and equipment. Such things do not come cheaply. But put them all together and you have what the proponents of government intervention like to call a “broken” system. That it is “broken” largely because of government intervention does not faze the proponents of still more intervention.

3. Welfare. Daniel Patrick Moynihan explained well the contributions of government welfare programs to what he called “he cycle of poverty and disadvantage” among urban blacks. For his pains, he was labeled a “racist” and accused of “blaming the victim.” The evidence of subsequent history is on Moynihan’s side.

4. Deficit spending. This canon of Keynesian orthodoxy has led to bouts of wasteful spending and a larger federal debt, both of which cause the displacement of private outlays on consumption goods (including health care) and job-producing, growth-enhancing capital investments. Deficit spending is stoutly defended by believers in big government, even though (a) it did not cure the Great Depression (conventional wisdom to the contrary), (b) its sudden withdrawal at the end of World War II did not cause a new depression (despite “authoritative” predictions to the contrary), and its recurrence in the form of “stimulus” did not alleviate the Great Recession. There are many reasons that deficit spending does not work as advertised, but its defenders will hear none of them because they are persons of faith in big government, not facts and reason.

Were it not for these and other government interventions, Americans — even the poorest ones — would be much better off than than they are, because they would strive to do better for themselves and because they would earn much more from their striving. In addition, there would be significantly more voluntary charity for those many fewer persons who really need it. That is a real “social safety net.”

Despite the foregoing, social and economic engineering by government persists for five reasons:

  • Ignorance — which includes the kind of blind faith in the power of government to do “the right thing,” as discussed above.
  • Smugness — the self-satisfaction that comes from having supported or voted for a certain cause as a token of one’s “enlightenment,” “open-mindedness,” or “compassion.”
  • Power-seeking — as politicians cater to and shape the preferences of certain voting blocs, for the sake of gaining and holding office and the power that goes with it.
  • Rent-seeking — the effort to gain an economic or social advantage at the expense of others, an advantage that is mainly illusory because one group’s gains must be paid for, politically, by supporting the efforts of other groups to acquire gains.

Appeals to “fairness,” “social justice,” “equality,” and other such high-flown concepts are good indicators of ignorance, smugness, power-seeking, and rent-seeking.

Am I right about the essential bankruptcy of social and economic engineering by government? All I can say is that I came to my views as a result of observation and reflection. I did not inherit them from my parents (who were inarticulate in such matters), nor did I absorb them from my professors (who, if anything led me in the opposite direction). I believe in the rightness of my views — of course. But whether I am right or wrong is not for me to say. What I could say has been said well by an economist named Russell Roberts that I will quote him:

I am willing to admit that I have trouble thinking of a natural experiment that would get me to change my worldview. It would take a lot of natural experiments in lots of different settings before I became convinced, for example, that government can spend our way out of a recession or that bailouts are a good way to deal with systemic risk. I have a worldview. I’m an ideologue. I have a philosophy of what makes the world a better place. I stand by that philosophy because I think its principles if implemented more widely would actually make the world a better place. It would take a lot of evidence to dissuade me from my views on economic freedom and the proper role of government. Those principles color the way I see the world. I think that’s true for almost all of us. What distinguishes is honesty about what we believe and why.

Now you have a good idea — if you didn’t already — of what I believe and why I believe it.

*   *   *

Related and supporting posts: Too many to list. Go here and browse.

The Real Multiplier

Superseded by this page.

A Case for Perpetual Copyrights and Patents

Is there such a thing as intellectual property, which the state should protect by issuing or recognizing copyrights and patents? (The other principle type of intellectual property is the trademark, which is less contentious and not of interest here.)

I am aware of three plausible arguments against copyright and patent laws:

  1. Copyrights and patents are legal contrivances that enable their owners to extract artificially high returns (rent, in the jargon of economics) by slowing the proliferation of marketable ideas.
  2. It is impossible to “steal” an idea from someone. The person who first has the idea still has it even if someone else learns of and uses it.
  3. It follows that when A earns money by using his own idea (e.g., producing a song of his own composition, building a better mousetrap of his own design), B cannot rightly taken any of A’s earnings; that would be theft. But if B earns money by using A’s idea, the earnings are B’s, not A’s, because B’s earnings are due to his own efforts.

The first argument stands alone, as a proposition that might be tested empirically. The second and third arguments are moral and linked. The following discussion is organized accordingly.

THE ECONOMICS OF COPYRIGHTS AND PATENTS

Stephan Kinsella relies on the first point in “Ideas Are Free: The Case Against Intellectual Property“:

Material progress is made over time in human society because information is not scarce. It can be infinitely multiplied, learned, taught, and built on. The more patterns, recipes, causal laws that are known add to the stock of knowledge available to all actors and act as a greater and greater wealth multiplier by allowing actors to engage in ever-more efficient and productive actions. It is a good thing that ideas are infinitely reproducible, not a bad thing. There is no need to impose artificial scarcity on these things to make them more like scarce resources, which, unfortunately, are scarce.

I refer to Kinsella because his is a prominent “libertarian” voice against intellectual property. But his argument — if one can call it that — is, at best, incomplete. It treats ideas as if they were free goods, simply floating in the air to be plucked. But good ideas — alternating current, the light bulb, the telephone, the graphical user interface, and on and on — are the products of hard work that is financially risky.

What is needed, on the first point, is not a Kinsella-like assertion but empirical evidence. This is on offer in Michele Boldrin and David Levine’s Against Intellectual Monopoly (.pdf version here). The following, with my comments in bold type and enclosed in brackets, is from Chapter I, “Introduction”:

The U.S. Constitution allows Congress “To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries.”… From a social point of view, and in the view of the founding fathers, the purpose of patents and copyrights is not to enrich the few at the expense of the many…. [C]ommon sense and the U.S. Constitution say that these rights must be justified by bringing benefits to all of us. [Utilitarian obiter dicta; assumes away property rights of creators.]

The U.S. Constitution is explicit that what is to be given to authors and inventors is an exclusive right – a monopoly. Implicit is the idea that giving this monopoly serves to promote the progress of science and useful arts. The U.S. Constitution was written in 1787. At that time, the idea of copyright and patent was relatively new, the products to which they applied few, and their terms short. In light of the experience of the subsequent 219 years we might ask: is it true that legal grants of monopoly serve to promote the progress of science and the useful arts?

Certainly common sense suggests that it should…. Would not the world without patent and copyright be a sad cold world, empty of new music and of marvelous new inventions?

So the first question we will pose is what the world might be like without intellectual monopoly. Patents and copyrights have not secured monopolies on all ideas at all times. It is natural then to examine times and industries in which legal protection for ideas have not been available to see whether innovation and creativity were thriving or were stifled. It is the case, for example, that neither the internet nor the jet engine were invented in hopes of securing exclusive rights. In fact, we ordinarily think of “innovative monopoly” as an oxymoron. We shall see that when monopoly over ideas is absent, competition is fierce – and that as a result innovation and creativity thrive. Whatever a world without patents and copyrights would be like, it would not be a world devoid of great new music and beneficial new drugs. [To be proved, or not.]

You will gather by now that we are skeptical of monopoly– as are economists in general. Our second topic will be an examination of the many social costs created by copyrights and patents. Adam Smith – a friend and teacher of James Watt – was one of the first economists to explain how monopolies make less available at a higher price. In some cases, such as the production of music, this may not be a great social evil; in other cases such as the availability of AIDS drugs, it may be a very great evil indeed. [But without the promise of monopoly would there have been AIDS drugs?] However, as we shall see, low availability and high price is only one of the many costs of monopoly…. [Generalize the preceding comment.] We shall also see that because there are no countervailing market forces, government-enforced monopolies such as intellectual monopoly are particularly problematic. [There are always countervailing market forces; even “monopolists” do not have monopolies on everything that consumers might want. Substitution is a powerful but under-appreciated force.]

While monopoly may be evil [Whoa, there! Evil is Stalin, Hitler, and al Qaida, not a bunch of aspiring plutocrats.], and while innovation may thrive in the absence of traditional legal protections such as patents and copyrights, it may be that patents and copyrights serve to increase innovation….

In the final analysis, the only justification for intellectual property is that it increases – de facto and substantially – innovation and creation. [Not the only justification. There is the property right to be reckoned with.] … Is it a fact that intellectual monopoly leads to more creativity and innovation? Our examination of the data shows no evidence that it does. [We shall see.] Nor are we the first economists to reach this conclusion. After reviewing an earlier set of facts in 1958, the distinguished economist Fritz Machlup wrote

it would be irresponsible, on the basis of our present knowledge of its economic consequences, to recommend instituting [a patent system].

Since there is no evidence that intellectual monopoly achieves the desired purpose of increasing innovation and creation, it has no benefits. So there is no need for society to balance the benefits against the costs. This leads us to our final conclusion: intellectual property is an unnecessary evil. [To repeat, this ignores the property right.]

I will not suggest that the various expansions and extensions of copyright and patent protection over the past decades have been necessary or desirable. But there is the reasonable question whether some degree of copyright and patent protection is economically beneficial. What do Boldrin and Levine have to offer on that score?

They offer page after page of theorizing and many special cases. The most interesting cases, for my purposes, are those that cover broad swaths of time, and thus are less likely to have been influenced by transient events. One such case involves the effects of the expansion of copyright protection on the output of literary works:

[B]eginning in 1919, the length of copyright has been continually extended. At the turn of the century it was 28 years and could be extended for another 14. Prior to the Copyright Term Extension Act (CTEA, or Sonny Bono Act in the popular press) of 1998 it was 75 years for works for hire, and the life of the author plus 50 years otherwise, its last major extension having been approved in 1976. Thus, the length of copyright term roughly doubled during the course of the century. If this approximate doubling of the length of copyright encouraged the production of additional literary works, we would expect that the per capita number of literary works registered would have gone up. Below is a graph of the number of literary copyrights per capita registered in the United States in the last century. Apparently economic theory works whereas the theory according to which extending copyright term boosts creativity in the long run, does not. The various copyright extensions have not led to an increase in the output of literary work. (pp. 111-2 of the .pdf version)

The graph, which I am unable to reproduce here, yields no discernible trend. This counts in favor of Boldrin and Levine, who (it is evident) are much opposed to copyright and patent protection. There is much in the tone of their writing to suggest that their opposition preceded their analysis, rather than being a result of it.

Later, one finds the following “evidence” about the general effects of copyright laws on the output of musical compositions:

[Professor Frederic Scherer] … compared the average number of composers born per million population per decade in various European countries. Turning first to England, he considers the precopyright period 1700-1752, and the post copyright period 1767-1849. As controls he looks also at what happened in Germany, Austria and Italy[,] in which here was no change in copyright during this period [1700-1849, presumably]….

We see that the number of composers per million declined everywhere, but it declined considerably faster in the UK after the introduction of copyright than in Germany or Austria, and at about the same rate as Italy. So there is no evidence here that copyright increased musical output. (pp. 212-3 of the .pdf version)

Nor is there evidence that the introduction of copyright led to a reduction in the ranks of composers. Continuing:

However, the evidence is mixed, because the same experiment in France is more favorable to copyright. In France the precopyright period is 1700-1768, and the post copyright period is 1783-1849….

Here we find that, in France, when copyright is introduced the number of composers per million increased substantially more than in other countries. This should be noted, as it is pretty much the only piece of evidence supporting the idea that copyright increased classical music production we have been capable of finding. (p. 213 of the .pdf version)

But the case of France should be accorded a lot of weight because of the time period it covers.

Despite Boldrin and Levine’s obvious biases (especially against “big corporations”), I am satisfied that the economic case for any level of copyright and patent protection is mixed, at best. The case for such protection, if any, must stand on moral grounds.

ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY DOES NOT EXCUSE THEFT

This brings me to the second argument against copyrights and patents, namely, that an idea cannot be stolen. This, if true, supports the third argument, namely, that a person who “copies” someone else’s “idea” and sells the copies he makes is not stealing from the originator of the idea.

Boldrin and Levine do not resist the idea that ideas can be property:

We do not know of any legitimate argument that producers of ideas should not be able to profit from their creations. (p. 9 of .pdf version)

But…

Why … should creators have the right to control how purchasers make use of an idea or creation? (ibid.)

Timothy Sandefur puts it this way:

There are two elements of property that are usually merged, but which in the context of intellectual property are not necessarily connected: (1) the moral right of a person to the use and enjoyment of the property in question, and (2) the moral right of the owner to forbid another person from using or enjoying the property in question.

In the case of tangible property, real or personal, the second flows naturally from the first, because the property is naturally exclusive, meaning that if I have it, you simply cannot; if I take it, you no longer have it—you have been “disseised.” Intellectual property, however, is not like this. I can “take” it from you, and yet you still have it. If, for example, you are the greatest musician in the history of rock and roll (that is, John Fogerty) and you have written the greatest song ever (that is, “Born on The Bayou,” from the glorious 1968 album Bayou Country), then I can sing “Born on The Bayou” in my shower, and you can still, at the same time, use and enjoy your “property” as you wish: you can perform it, sell it, or leave it alone. Elements (1) and (2) are separated—your moral right (assuming it exists) to use and enjoy your song does not necessarily entitle you to forbid me from simultaneously using and enjoying your song.

The business about singing a song in the shower is a diversion from the real issue, which is making a copy of an original work (of art, music, literature, mechanical design, etc.). The making of a copy encompasses not only the physical reproduction of an original work in a medium (including electronic media) but also the performance of a song, staging of a play, reading of a book, and the like, especially for an audience (whether paying or not). The making of a copy, thus properly defined, has the potential of depriving the work’s creator of “a penny” or more, by fraud or theft, and is therefore tantamount to the initiation of force against the work’s creator.

Sandefur, it seems, would disagree with that. He says, in another post, that there is a

difference between one’s right to his earnings, and one’s right not to have his earnings taken from him. With regard to tangible property, these two things fit together perfectly, like the convexity and concavity of the same curved line. But with regard to intellectual property, which is non-exclusive, these two things are pried apart. A man who invents a new mousetrap certainly deserves what he can earn for producing that mousetrap. (And nobody may take either his earnings or his particular mousetrap from him.) But he does not necessarily have the right to stop others from “taking” his mousetrap idea from him, because even when a person does so, he still retains that idea. It is nonexclusive.

Is the idea (the design of a mousetrap) really separable from the product (the mousetrap that is manufactured according to the design)? Or, to put it in terms of Sandefur’s musical example, is the idea (the song “Born on the Bayou”) really separable from the product (performances and recordings of the song)?

Consider the following hypothetical “facts” and situations relating to “Born on the Bayou.” The “facts” are predicated on the reasonable assumption that the use of copyright notices by creators of original works is merely a substitute for the kind of contract that those creators (or most of them) would insist upon before performing, recording, or displaying their works. The expectation of a contract (of the kind outlined below) is the proper starting point for an analysis of the legitimacy of copying.

Hypothetical “facts”: John Fogerty writes “Born on the Bayou,” performs it in a recording studio (and only there), and offers copies of the recorded performance for sale. Each copy authorized for sale by Mr. Fogerty displays (in lieu of a copyright notice) the following statement:

TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF USE:  This product consists of these terms and conditions and the enclosed CD, which contains the song, “Born on the Bayou.” The song and the musical performance of it that is recorded on the enclosed CD are the property of John Fogerty. Mr. Fogerty grants the purchaser of this product a limited license to play the CD for private, non-commercial use. The purchaser may make one copy of the CD, but only as a backup in case the purchased copy is damaged. The purchaser may not otherwise make a copy or copies of the CD for distribution to others (with or without remuneration). The performance of “Born on the Bayou” by any other person before an audience (with or without remuneration) requires the express, written consent of Mr. Fogerty and the payment of a royalty to Mr. Fogerty, according to a schedule that is available at <bornonthebayou.com>. Broadcasting companies may play this CD (or portions) thereof) on radio, television, the internet, or via other telecommunications media when they adhere to the notification requirements and royalty schedule that is available at <bornonthebayou.com>. These terms and conditions are an integral part of this product, and may not be detached from it. The initial purchaser of this product, as a condition of the purchase of this product, accepts these terms and conditions and agrees to convey them to a subsequent purchaser or grantee of this product. These terms and conditions thereby become binding on each and every party to whom this product is conveyed by sale or grant.

In the absence of copyright laws, this kind of statement would document the contract between an artist (or his assignee) who creates, performs, or exhibits an original work (of any kind) and persons who are allowed to see or hear the work and/or own authorized copies or recordings of it. (Similar statements accompany software and tickets for sporting events, musical performances, and theatrical productions.) In other words, the removal of copyright protection need not result in a an “open season” on original works of artistic creation.

The following hypothetical situations, which rely on the above “facts,” are therefore reasonable tests of Sandefur’s distinction between an idea and the products derived from it.

Hypothetical situation #1: Joe Smith buys a “Born on the Bayou” CD, makes copies of it, and sells the copies for far less than the price of copies authorized by John Fogerty. Smith may even choose to give away the copies. In either event, Fogerty’s “right not to have his earnings taken from him” is violated because the availability of cheap or free copies of Fogerty’s performance reduces (in some amount) the number of authorized copies that Fogerty is able to sell.

Hypothetical situation #2: Jack Brown buys a copy of the CD, teaches himself to perform “Born on the Bayou” in the style of John Fogerty, records a performance of the song, and sells copies of the recording. Brown would not know of “Born on the Bayou,” or how to perform it, were it not for the CD that he had purchased, with its accompanying agreement. Brown’s action may not deprive Fogerty of his ability to perform “Born on the Bayou,” but it could deprive Fogerty of sales of his creation. And, artistic self-actualization aside, it was the prospect of selling copies of the song that led Fogerty to write and record it in the first place. Brown, like Smith, has violated Fogerty’s “right not to have his earnings taken from him.”

These hypotheticals suggest that Sandefur’s distinction between “one’s right to his earnings, and one’s right not to have his earnings taken from him” is a false one in the case of an unauthorized copying of an original work. In such a case, the two things cannot be “pried apart.” Even though Smith and Brown would not have stolen any of Fogerty’s earnings from his sales of CDs or his performances of “Born on the Bayou,” their actions would have had the same effect. That is, they would have reduced Fogerty’s earnings by depriving him of customers for his CDs and performances. Sandefur’s distinction applies if, and only if, a Smith or a Brown competes with Fogerty by composing and recording an original work.

A logician might accuse Sandefur of sophistry. The sophistry — unintended, I’m sure — arises from the use of “idea” to describe a creative work. As Sandefur puts it (in the second of the posts quoted above), the inventor of a mousetrap

not necessarily have the right to stop others from “taking” his mousetrap idea from him, because even when a person does so, he [the inventor] still retains that idea.

An “idea” (a design, a song, etc.) that exists in a person’s mind becomes more than an “idea” when that person has documented it in some form (a drawing, a set of specifications, a musical score, a recording, etc.). Another person — unless he is a mind-reader — cannot steal an “idea,” but he can steal the external manifestation of the idea. It is the external manifestation — not the “idea” — that is stolen by copying (in one way or another). And it is the external manifestation that the creator may rightly seek to protect from being copied, by attaching to it a contract like the “Terms and Conditions of Use” sketched above.

By what “right” does the creator of a work “dictate” the terms and conditions of its use? By his ownership of the property (the external manifestation of his “idea”), to which he attaches the terms and conditions. Prospective buyers are free to accept the terms and conditions (by buying the property) or to reject them (by declining to buy the property). As long as the terms and conditions are stated openly, there is no question of fraud or coercion.  The choice — to buy or not to buy, given the terms and conditions — is entirely in the hands of a prospective buyer. (I have no idea how my position squares with statutory and common law, but I can see no moral objection to it.*)

CONCLUSION

Boldrin and Levine make an economic case against perpetual copyrights and patents, but it is a narrow one that does not really address the broadly disincentivizing effects of the complete loss of copyright and patent protection across all fields of endeavor. (This is not to say that Boldrin and Levine ignore the contractual alternative that I discuss here. See, for example, page 9 of the .pdf version of their book.)

On the other hand, there is a strong moral case for copyrights and patents — even perpetual ones. When faced with a choice between economic efficiency and morality, I choose morality.
__________
* The terms and conditions attached to a creative work, as I have sketched them, are like restrictive covenants in a residential subdivision, which

may govern what color a home’s exterior is painted, what and how many exterior decorations are allowed, where cars are allowed to be parked, or even who lives in the house (outside of the owner’s nuclear family).

Such covenants apply not just to the original owner of a house, but also subsequent owners. They restrict what may be done to a property, but not to whom a property may be conveyed. The latter kind of restriction long ago ran afoul of the U.S. Supreme Court, in Shelley v. Kraemer (1948). Here is the key language of the Court’s opinion (references to other cases and footnotes omitted):

We hold that, in granting judicial enforcement of the restrictive agreements in these cases, the States have denied petitioners the equal protection of the laws, and that, therefore, the action of the state courts cannot stand. We have noted that freedom from discrimination by the States in the enjoyment of property rights was among the basic objectives sought to be effectuated by the framers of the Fourteenth Amendment. That such discrimination has occurred in these cases is clear. Because of the race or color of these petitioners, they have been denied rights of ownership or occupancy enjoyed as a matter of course by other citizens of different race or color. The Fourteenth Amendment declares “that all persons, whether colored or white, shall stand equal before the laws of the States, and, in regard to the colored race, for whose protection the amendment was primarily designed, that no discrimination shall be made against them by law because of their color.”

Only recently, this Court had occasion to declare that a state law which denied equal enjoyment of property rights to a designated class of citizens of specified race and ancestry was not a legitimate exercise of the state’s police power, but violated the guaranty of the equal protection of the laws. Nor may the discriminations imposed by the state courts in these cases be justified as proper exertions of state police power.

Respondents urge, however, that, since the state courts stand ready to enforce restrictive covenants excluding white persons from the ownership or occupancy of property covered by such agreements, enforcement of covenants excluding colored persons may not be deemed a denial of equal protection of the laws to the colored persons who are thereby affected. This contention does not bear scrutiny. The parties have directed our attention to no case in which a court, state or federal, has been called upon to enforce a covenant excluding members of the white majority from ownership or occupancy of real property on grounds of race or color. But there are more fundamental considerations. The rights created by the first section of the Fourteenth Amendment are, by its terms, guaranteed to the individual. The rights established are personal rights. It is, therefore, no answer to these petitioners to say that the courts may also be induced to deny white persons rights of ownership and occupancy on grounds of race or color. Equal protection of the laws is not achieved through indiscriminate imposition of inequalities.

Nor do we find merit in the suggestion that property owners who are parties to these agreements are denied equal protection of the laws if denied access to the courts to enforce the terms of restrictive covenants and to assert property rights which the state courts have held to be created by such agreements. The Constitution confers upon no individual the right to demand action by the State which results in the denial of equal protection of the laws to other individuals. And it would appear beyond question that the power of the State to create and enforce property interests must be exercised within the boundaries defined by the Fourteenth Amendment.

The problem of defining the scope of the restrictions which the Federal Constitution imposes upon exertions of power by the States has given rise to many of the most persistent and fundamental issues which this Court has been called upon to consider. That problem was foremost in the minds of the framers of the Constitution, and, since that early day, has arisen in a multitude of forms. The task of determining whether the action of a State offends constitutional provisions is one which may not be undertaken lightly. Where, however, it is clear that the action of the State violates the terms of the fundamental charter, it is the obligation of this Court so to declare.

The historical context in which the Fourteenth Amendment became a part of the Constitution should not be forgotten. Whatever else the framers sought to achieve, it is clear that the matter of primary concern was the establishment of equality in the enjoyment of basic civil and political rights and the preservation of those rights from discriminatory action on the part of the States based on considerations of race or color. Seventy-five years ago, this Court announced that the provisions of the Amendment are to be construed with this fundamental purpose in mind. Upon full consideration, we have concluded that, in these cases, the States have acted to deny petitioners the equal protection of the laws guaranteed by the Fourteenth Amendment. Having so decided, we find it unnecessary to consider whether petitioners have also been deprived of property without due process of law or denied privileges and immunities of citizens of the United States.

Whether the Court’s legal reasoning is also morally sound I leave as an exercise for the reader.

Externalities and Statism

In “Regulation as Wishful Thinking,” I say negative things about the main excuse for regulation, which is the existence of so-called negative externalities. This post focuses on the concept of externality and the absurdities to which it leads.

An externality — in case the term is new to you —

is a cost or benefit … incurred by a party who did not agree to the action causing the cost or benefit. A benefit in this case is called a positive externality or external benefit, while a cost is called a negative externality or external cost.

Economists seem to believe that externalities are “bad,” even positive ones. Why? According to the Wikipedia article quoted above, ”

[w]elfare economics has shown that the existence of externalities results in outcomes that are not socially optimal. Those who suffer from external costs do so involuntarily, while those who enjoy external benefits do so at no cost.

The absurdity of this economistic view of the world is demonstrated easily:

1. If an attractive woman catches my eye, should I compensate her for the enjoyment that I derive from looking at her? If not, why not? Her attractiveness undoubtedly generates a lot of positive externalities.

2. If the same physically attractive woman catches the eye of a crude man, he will leer, wink, and perhaps make suggestive motions or remarks. His actions, which are a reaction to a positive externality (the effect of the woman’s attractiveness) have the effect of offending the woman and causing her psychological discomfort. His actions, in other words, cause a negative externality that can be traced to the same source as the positive externality in 1.

In short, life is full of externalities — positive and negative. They often emanate from the same event, and cannot be separated. State action that attempts to undo negative externalities usually results in the negation or curtailment of positive ones. In terms of the preceding example, state action often is aimed at forcing the attractive woman to be less attractive, thus depriving quietly appreciative men of a positive externality, rather than penalizing the crude man if his actions cross the line from mere rudeness to assault.

The main argument against externalities is that they somehow result in something other than a “social optimum.” This argument is pure, economistic hokum. It rests on the unsupportable belief in a social-welfare function, which requires the balancing (by an omniscient being, I suppose) of the happiness and unhappiness that results from every action that affects another person, either directly or indirectly. To return to the example, forcing the woman to be less attractive may make the woman more or less happy (depending on how she weighs her allure against the unwelcome attention that it draws), but it definitely makes me less happy. And even if the woman is happier, her gain in happiness does not cancel my decrease in happiness.

A believer in externalities might respond by saying that they are of “economic” importance only as they are imposed on bystanders as a spillover from economic transactions, as in the case of emissions from a power plant that can cause lung damage in susceptible persons. Such a reply is of a kind that only an omniscient being could make with impunity. What privileges an economistic thinker to say that the line of demarcation between relevant and irrelevant acts should be drawn in a certain place? The authors of campus speech codes evidently prefer to draw the line in such a way as to penalize the behavior of the crude man in the above example. Who is the economistic thinker to say that the authors of campus speech codes have it wrong? And who is the legalistic thinker to say that speech should be regulated by deferring to the “feelings” that it arouses in persons who may hear or read it?

Despite the intricacies that I have sketched, negative externalities are singled out for attention and rectification, to the detriment of social and economic intercourse. Remove the negative externalities of electric-power generation and you make more costly (and even inaccessible) a (perhaps the) key factor in America’s economic growth in the past century. Try to limit the supposed negative externality of human activity known as “greenhouse gases” and you limit the ability of humans to cope with that externality (if it exists) through invention, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Limit the supposed negative externality of “offensive” speech and you quickly limit the range of ideas that may be expressed in political discourse. Limit the supposed externalities of suburban sprawl and you, in effect, sentence people to suffer the crime, filth, crowding, contentiousness, heat-island effects, and other externalities of urban living.

The real problem is not externalities but economistic and legalistic reactions to them. These reactions are manifestations of rationalism. As Michael Oakeshott explains, a rationalist

never doubts the power of his ‘reason … to determine the worth of a thing, the truth of an opinion or the propriety of an action. Moreover, he is fortified by a belief in a ‘reason’ common to all mankind, a common power of rational consideration….

… And having cut himself off from the traditional knowledge of his society, and denied the value of any education more extensive than a training in a technique of analysis, he is apt to attribute to mankind a necessary inexperience in all the critical moments of life, and if he were more self-critical he might begin to wonder how the race had ever succeeded in surviving. (“Rationalism in Politics,” pp. 5-7, as republished in Rationalism in Politics and Other Essays)

The main result of rationalistic thinking — because it yields vote-worthy slogans and empty promises to fix this and that “problem” — is the aggrandizement of the state, to the detriment of civil society.

The fundamental error of rationalists is to believe that “problems” call for collective action, and to identify collective action with state action. They lack the insight and imagination to understand that the social beings whose voluntary, cooperative efforts are responsible for mankind’s vast material progress are perfectly capable of adapting to and solving “problems,” and that the intrusions of the state simply complicate matters, when not making them worse. True collective action is found in voluntary social and economic intercourse, the complex, information-rich content of which rationalists cannot fathom. They are as useless as a blind man who is shouting directions to an Indy 500 driver.

Here is a good example of that kind of backseat driving:

For the left, political objectives relate to policy ends. We want to expand access to quality health care. We want to lower carbon emissions to combat global warming. We want to reform the lending process for student loans so more young people can afford to go to college. We want to make public investments to create jobs. (Steve Benen, “They’re not parallel ideologies,” Washington Monthly, October 18, 2011)

The list could go on and on, almost without end, of course. Because there is no end of “problems” that cry out for political “solutions.” Political, in this case, refers not to the voluntary processes and organizations of civil society — which are truly political — but to state action on behalf of this and that group and “cause.” It reminds me of the management style of a former boss, whose every whim became a top priority.

In the end, if anyone is better off it is politicians and bureaucrats who rake in above-market wages and outrageously cushy pensions. It is certainly not the members of competing interest groups, each of which vies to make its “cause” the number-one priority, and all of which end up paying for every other group’s favorite “cause.”

Then, too, there is the law of unintended consequences, which ensures that every state-imposed “solution” creates a new problem (a real one) that — you guessed it — cries out for state action. For example:

Night operation of the windmills in the North Allegheny Windpower Project has been halted following discovery of a dead Indiana bat under one of the turbines, an official with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said Monday.

A more serious example:

On the Republican campaign trail, the health care debate has focused on the mandatory coverage that Mitt Romney signed into law as governor in 2006. But back in Massachusetts the conversation has moved on, and lawmakers are now confronting the problem that Mr. Romney left unaddressed: the state’s spiraling health care costs.

After three years of study, the state’s legislative leaders appear close to producing bills that would make Massachusetts the first state — again — to radically revamp the way doctors, hospitals and other health providers are paid.

Although important details remain to be negotiated, the legislative leaders and Gov. Deval Patrick, all Democrats, are working toward a plan that would encourage flat “global payments” to networks of providers for keeping patients well, replacing the fee-for-service system that creates incentives for excessive care by paying for each visit and procedure….

And when that brainstorm fails to solve the very real problems created by Romneycare, the idiots politicians and do-gooders who dictate to the people of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts will try to conscript doctors, hospitals, and other providers of medical care into an overtly socialized system, which will come to be known (appropriately) as Commie-care. Then, predictably, the Commonwealth will try to remedy the flight of providers by some cockamamie scheme or other, which will accomplish the two-fold feat of making Massachusetts a medical wasteland while drying up the funding for Commie-care by driving out wealth-creators.

The fundamental problem with rationalistic “solutions” to “problems” — other than the fact that they do not work — is that they have externalities that make pollution and other undesirable by-products of economic activity seem almost benign. (For an estimate of the magnitude of the externalities of statism, see this post.) It is just that statist politicians are skilled at disguising the destructiveness of statist “solutions” and turning every real problem caused by state action into an excuse for more state action. They are abetted, of course, by the economic illiterates whose votes make democracy an enemy of liberty.

Civil society, left unfettered by statist decrees but protected by a minimal state, would cope very well with negative externalities, were it allowed to function. I have made that case in “Regulation and Wishful Thinking,” and will not repeat it here. (See especially the section of the post that is headed “The Alternatives to Regulation: Markets and Common Law.”) The general point is made by Oakeshott:

To some people, ‘government’ appears as a vast reservoir of power which inspires them to dream of what use might be made of it. They have favourite projects, of various dimensions, which they sincerely believe are for the benefit of mankind, and to capture this source of power, if necessary to increase it, and to use it for imposing their favourite projects upon their fellows is what they understand as the adventure of governing men. They are, thus, disposed to recognize government as an instrument of passion; the art of politics is to inflame and direct desire. In short, governing is understood to be just like any other activity — making and selling a brand of soap, exploiting the resources of a locality, or developing a housing estate — only the power here is (for the most part) already mobilized, and the enterprise is remarkable only because it aims at monopoly and because of its promise of success once the source of power has been captured….

Political conservatism is … not at all unintelligible in a people disposed to be adventurous and enterprising, a people in love with change and apt to rationalise their affections in terms of ‘progress’. And one does not need to think that the belief in ‘progress’ is the most cruel and unprofitable of all beliefs, arousing cupidity without satisfying it, in order to think it inappropriate for a government to be conspicuously ‘progressive’. Indeed, a disposition to be conservative in respect of government would seem to be pre-eminently appropriate to men who have something to do and something to think about on their own account, who have a skill to practise or an intellectual fortune to make, to people whose passions do not need to be inflamed, whose desires do not need to be provoked and whose dreams of a better world need no prompting. Such people know the value of a rule which imposes orderliness without irecting enterprise, a rule which concentrates duty so that room is left for delight…. (“On Being Conservative,” pp. 431-5, Rationalism in Politics and Other Essays)

Related posts:
Fear of the Free Market — Part I
Fear of the Free Market — Part II
Fear of the Free Market — Part III
The Social Welfare Function
Risk and Regulation
A Short Course in Economics
The Interest-Group Paradox
Addendum to a Short Course in Economics
Utilitarianism, “Liberalism,” and Omniscience
Accountants of the Soul
Ricardian Equivalence Reconsidered
The Real Burden of Government
Utilitarianism vs. Liberty
Toward a Risk-Free Economy
Rawls Meets Bentham
The Rahn Curve at Work
The Case of the Purblind Economist
The Illusion of Prosperity and Stability
Estimating the Rahn Curve: Or, How Government Inhibits Economic Growth
More about Conservative Governance
Luck-Egalitariansim and Moral Luck
Understanding Hayek
The Destruction of Society in the Name of “Society”
What Free-Rider Problem?
Human Nature, Liberty, and Rationalism
Utilitarianism and Psychopathy
Regulation as Wishful Thinking

Another Reason to Fear the Fed

A rah-rah story about inflation leads with this:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Consumer prices outside food and energy rose at their slowest pace in six months in September as the cost of apparel and used vehicles fell, suggesting inflation pressures remained contained.

The fact of the matter is that inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is on the rise:

Methinks I see the effects of quantitative easing: More money is pushing against a stubborn “refusal” by businesses to invest and expand, given the present anti-business, anti-wealth, pro-entitlement regime in Washington.

Related posts:
Politicizing Economic Growth
The Causes of Economic Growth
A Short Course in Economics
Addendum to a Short Course in Economics
The Fed and Business Cycles
Presidential Chutzpah
As Goes Greece
The State of the Union: 2010
The Shape of Things to Come
The Illusion of Prosperity and Stability
The “Forthcoming Financial Collapse”
Estimating the Rahn Curve: Or, How Government Inhibits Economic Growth
The Deficit Commission’s Deficit of Understanding
The Bowles-Simpson Report
The Bowles-Simpson Band-Aid
The Stagnation Thesis
Competition Shouldn’t Be a Dirty Word
Taxing the Rich
More about Taxing the Rich
Money, Credit, and Economic Fluctuations
A Keynesian Fantasy Land
The Keynesian Fallacy and Regime Uncertainty
The Great Recession Is Not Over
Why the “Stimulus” Failed to Stimulate
The “Jobs Speech” That Obama Should Have Given
Unemployment and Economic Growth
Say’s Law, Government, and Unemployment
Regime Uncertainty and the Great Recession

Regulation as Wishful Thinking

Paul Krugman is arguably a better advocate of regulation than a philosopher (unless the philosopher also has a Ph.D. in economics). But Krugman has met his match in Steven Landsburg, who slices and dices Krugman’s latest justification of the nanny state. Landsburg’s effort might render this post superfluous, but I began to write it before learning of the latest Krugman-Landsburg confrontation (the dénouement of an earlier one is here). There is more to be said and, unlike Landsburg, I am not a sucker for the concept that underpins regulation: the social welfare function (about which, see below).

IMPETUS

This post is inspired by Jason Brennan’s offering at the Bleeding Heart Libertarians blog, “A Simple Libertarian Argument for Environmental Regulation.” Brennan writes:

Libertarians are often very hostile to environmental regulation. Why? Reflecting on the argument below should help us understand their grounds and whether the grounds are any good.

1. Pollution and other kinds of environmental externalities impose costs upon others. A polluter forces others to bear the costs of his activities. Pollution tends to violate people’s property rights, as well as certain rights they have over themselves (such as the rights against having their health compromised against their will).

2. Government regulation of environmental issues is USUALLY/OFTEN/SOMETIMES effective, and is USUALLY/OFTEN/SOMETIMES more effective than using courts to defend the rights mentioned in premise 1. Courts are SOMETIMES/OFTEN/USUALLY ineffective in protecting these rights.

3. Therefore, government should have the right to issue environmental regulations in order to protect property rights, rights to life, and rights to health.

I don’t see how a libertarian could deny premise 1. So premise 2 does all the work. Premise 2 is an empirical premise. We can debate which word (“usually”, “often”, or “sometimes”) belongs in each sentence to make premise 2 true. However, unless the libertarian believes we should instead have “never” in the first sentence of premise 2, then it seems the libertarian has a strong case for favoring some government regulation of environmental issues….

Brennan is wrong to say that “premise 2 does all the work.” Premise 1 does just as much “work,” in a negative way, because it ignores positive externalities. Further, Brennan’s premise 2 omits to mention that regulation — however effectively it may address particular problems — is, on the whole, counterproductive. Brennan’s conclusion (#3) would be flawed, even if premises 1 and 2 were complete and correct, because it rests on the utilitarian presumption of a social welfare function.

In a follow-up post, “Objections to the Simple Libertarian Argument for Environmental Regulation,” Brennan writes:

[H]ere are some objections [to the earlier argument]:

A. The Mission Creep/Abuse Objection: Though 3 is true, if we give government the power to enforce the rights mentioned in 2 through environmental regulation, government will abuse and misuse this power. It will misuse/abuse it so much that it won’t be worth it. It’s better just to leave things to courts, and if that doesn’t work, just let people pollute.

B. The Cost-Benefit Objection: While government is sometimes effective at enforcing rights, cost-benefit analysis shows that the EPA and other such agencies, even when acting without abuse and in good faith, spend/cost far too much for every year of life saved. Against, it’s better just to leave things to courts or even just let people pollute.

C. Other Unintended Consequences Objection: Allowing government to try to solve the problem causes various other negative consequences, and isn’t worth the cost.

D. The Market Can Fix It Objection: There are some market-based (e.g., Coasean) means to solve these problems.

Having been thoroughly schooled in public choice and all the usual stuff, I see the point behind A-D. There’s significant truth behind each of these objections. However, if you’re one of those libertarians who believes the government should issue no environmental regulations (and many libertarians do believe this), you seem to me to be far too pessimistic about A-C and/or optimistic about D. Do the facts really turn out to imply that the optimal amount of government environmental regulation is none?

In the following sections, I expand on my statements about the premises (#1, #2) and conclusion (#3) of Brennan’s original post. Along the way, I address points A, B, C, and D of Brennan’s second post. I also address Brennan’s implicit assumption that regulators can arrive at an “optimal amount” of regulation. This is simply nonsense on stilts because, among other things, it contravenes “public choice,” in which Brennan claims to have been “thoroughly schooled.”

NOT ALL EXTERNALITIES ARE NEGATIVE

A polluter may be producing something that is of value not only to the purchasers of that product but also to others who derive benefits from the purchasers’ use of the product, benefits for which those others do not pay. In other words, negative externalities may be accompanied by positive externalities.

Consider electricity, which in the United States is generated mostly by fossil-fuel and nuclear-power plants. Coal-fired plants still generate about half of America’s electric power; nuclear plants account for another 20 percent. Both types of plants are perennial targets of environmental activists, who cavil at the emissions of coal-burning, the possibility of nuclear accidents, and the problem of containing or disposing of coal ash and radioactive waste. The stance of environmentalists — which is essentially the stance of the Environmental Protection Agency — is to reduce pollution and eliminate risk without regard for the positive externalities of power generation.

And those positive externalities are vast. The availability of electricity has made possible countless inventions and innovations, to the benefit of producers and consumers who did not pay a penny more to power companies for the benefits thus derived. Those inventions and innovations would not have been possible — and will not be possible — if not for the availability of electricity. To the extent that coal generation makes electricity cheaper and more widely available, it encourages beneficial inventions and innovations. One can say that a positive externality of coal-generated electricity has been a higher rate of economic growth — more jobs and greater prosperity — than would otherwise have been possible.

I have made a rough estimate of the value of the positive externalities of electrical power, as follows:

1. The tables for value added by industry at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) website do not subdivide the utilities industry into categories (electric power, water, etc.). I therefore used the values given for the entire utilities industry as an upper bound of the value added by private electric-power companies. That value was 1.8 percent of GDP in 2008. Many governments (including the federal government) are in the power-generation business, but the value-added by government power utilities is not available, so I took as an upper bound the value added by government enterprises (federal, State, and local), which was 1.1 percent of GDP in 2008. Power-generating entities in the United States therefore add — at the very most — about 3 percent to the nation’s total economic output.

2. But the value added by power generation — something less than 3 percent of GDP, according to the BEA — fails to account for the fundamental importance of electric-power generation to America’s economy. It would not be a great exaggeration to say that the overnight loss of power-generating capacity would set the economy back to its status circa 1900. That was after factories had begun to use electricity but before it came into wide use in large cities. Real GDP per capita in 1900 was about 1/8 of the value it reached in 2008.

3. Try to think of an economic activity that does not depend on electricity. Given the pervasive dependence of all parts of the American economy on electricity, it would be difficult to deny that the power industry’s positive externality (its social return, if you will) is upwards of 7/8 of GDP, whereas the nominal value-added of electric power is less than 3 percent of GDP. That, my friends, is a positive externality to end all positive externalities.

REGULATION IS COUNTERPRODUCTIVE

Regulation is counterproductive for several reasons. First, it curtails positive externalities. Nothing more need be said on that score. The other reasons, on which I expand below, are that regulation cannot be contained to “good causes,” nor can it be tailored to do good without doing harm. These objections might be dismissed as trivial if regulatory overkill were rare and relatively costless, but it is pervasive, extremely costly its own right, and a major contributor to the economic devastation that has been wrought by the regulatory-welfare state.

Who Regulates the Regulators?

Regulators do not stop regulating when they (might) have done some good. Regulatory overreach is endemic to regulatory activity and cannot be separated from it. A lot of bad inevitably accompanies a bit of good. This happens because the regulatory agenda is driven by a combination of

  • activists” whose specific (and mostly aesthetic) objectives (kill the pipeline, don’t drill in ANWR, save the spotted owl, etc.) are intended to to limit economic activity and consumer choice;
  • scientists who are eager to join the consensus about the latest environmental craze, just to be part of the action and also to grab their share of government-funded research — which, not coincidentally, tends to lend credence to the scare-of-the-month that justifies regulation;
  • regulatory “capture,” through which incumbent firms “help” regulators in ways that favor incumbent firms and limit competition; and
  • politicians and bureaucrats who play to “activists,” incumbent firms with deep pockets, and the general public (by claiming to be pro-environment), while extending their reach and power — because that is what politicians and bureaucrats like to do.

Regulation as a Blunt Instrument

Regulation substitutes one-size-fits all “solutions” for the tailored outcomes of free markets (including Coesean bargaining) and civil litigation. The result is a consistent pattern of government failure, which is amply documented. (See, for example, the 144 issues of Regulation that have been published to date.) Regulation might be defensible (though not by me) if it were a matter of occasional failure, but it is not. Resorting to regulation to “solve a problem” is like playing Russian roulette with five bullets in a six-shooter.

At its best, regulation mimics the results that would have obtained anyway, as seems to have been the case with automobile safety regulations. These did no more than allow the continuation of a long-running trend toward safer autos and highways, but at the cost of making autos less affordable for low-income persons.

At its worst, regulation prevents consumers from obtaining life-saving products. This can happen indirectly, through the generally stultifying effect of regulation on economic activity (estimated below). And it can happen directly, as with the Food and Drug Administration’s notorious record of delaying the availability of health- and life-saving medicines. (For more on the high cost of regulation, see W. Kip Viscusi and Ted Gayer’s “Safety at Any Price?” in Regulation, Fall 2002. For a good example of government imposing a dangerous one-size-fits-all burden on the populace, see Kenneth Anderson’s post, “The Science Is Settled: You’re Just Too Stupid to Live,” at The Volokh Conspiracy.)

A pervasive form of regulation, which usually is not labelled as such, is the Fed’s manipulation of interest rates and the supply of money. How has that worked out? Business cycles have become more volatile since the creation of the Fed in 1913. The worst downturn in American history — the Great Depression — can be chalked up, in large part, to the Fed’s loosening of credit in the late 1920s, followed by its contraction of the money supply in the early 1930s. We owe the Great Recession, which lingers, to the “perfect storm” of low interest rates (thanks to the Fed) and the regulation of housing markets (to encourage home-ownership by low-income persons) via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Environmental regulation is no different than any other kind, resting as it does on aesthetic preferences, half-baked “scientific” theories (AGW being the latest and perhaps the most egregious of the lot), and the unholy alliance of “bootleggers and Baptists.” The “bootleggers” are incumbent firms; producers of “green” products and such-like; and politicians and bureaucrats, who stand to gain power and prestige from their “unselfish” efforts. The “Baptists” are smug do-gooders who just will not leave the rest of us alone to figure things out for ourselves.

The Interest-Group Paradox

Environmental regulation and regulation in general are integral to the vast and vastly destructive regulatory-welfare state that has rise up in America since the early 1900s. That growth is the result of a phenomenon which I call the interest-group paradox.

Pork-barrel legislation exemplifies the interest-group paradox in action, though the paradox involves more than pork-barrel legislation. There are myriad government programs that — like pork-barrel projects — are intended to favor particular classes of individuals. In the case of environmental regulation, the favored classes are “activists,” bureaucrats, incumbent firms, “green” enterprises, and the politicians who benefit from their symbiotic relationships with the aforementioned. The support for each program is “bought” at the expense of supporting other programs. Because there are thousands of government programs (federal, State, and local) — each intended to help a particular class of citizens (at the expense of others) — the net result is that almost no one in this fair land enjoys a “free lunch,” despite almost everyone’s efforts to do just that. This is the interest-group paradox.

The interest-group paradox is like the paradox of thrift, in that large numbers of individuals are trying to do something that makes certain classes of persons better off, but which in the final analysis makes those classes of persons worse off. It is also like the paradox of panic, in that there is a  crowd of interest groups rushing toward a goal — a “pot of gold” — and (figuratively) crushing each other in the attempt to snatch the pot of gold before another group is able to grasp it. The gold that any group happens to snatch is a kind of fool’s gold: It passes from one fool to another in a game of beggar-thy-neighbor.

If you want regulation, you must pay the political price by backing other programs, for which you will seek payment in the form of additional regulation, and so on, ad perpetuum.

The Final Tally

The direct cost of regulation is about 10 percent of GDP: $1.5 trillion in today’s dollars. The indirect cost of regulation cannot be separated from the cumulative burden of the regulatory-welfare state. But that burden would not be as large as it is were it not for the integral role of environmental regulation in the working of the interest-group paradox. I have estimated that the establishment and expansion of the regulatory-welfare state over the past century has reduced real GDP by about 70 percent from the level it would have attained if the state had not been expanded beyond a “night watchman” role.

The price tag is so large that everyone (“activists,” regulators, etc.) pays in one way or another, through fewer choices, fewer jobs, and lower real incomes. And it cannot be otherwise because, as noted above, the bad inevitably comes with the good. To believe or claim otherwise is to indulge in the Nirvana fallacy and wishful thinking.

FUNDAMENTAL FLAW: THE MYTH OF THE SOCIAL-WELFARE FUNCTION

Costs aside, regulation is based on an epistemological error. The urge to regulate presumes a social welfare function that can be maximized — or improved, at least — by limiting the negative externalities that flow from certain economic activities.

For example, an environmental regulation might cause the owner of a polluting factory to buy and operate some kind of equipment that reduces the factory’s emissions. When the owner complies, those who live near the factory are presumed to be better off. And perhaps the benefits extend farther afield. But, in any case, the factory owner’s higher costs are likely to have untoward effects, for example, fewer jobs for factory workers and higher prices for the purchasers of the factory’s products.

When a proponent of regulation is confronted with this reality, he is likely to shrug and say that the costs (fewer jobs, higher prices) are worth the benefits (less pollution). Whence the moral authority to make that kind of judgment? It implies the existence of a social-welfare function, to which the proponent of regulation is privy.

This is nothing less than utilitarianism in the modern garb of cost-benefit analysis. The theory of cost-benefit analysis is simple: If the expected benefits from a government project or regulation are greater than its expected costs, the project or regulation is economically justified.

But cost-benefit analysis has a fundamental flaw, which it shares with utilitarianism: One person’s benefit cannot be compared with another person’s cost. (This objection vanishes when parties are free to engage in Coasean bargaining, but regulation preempts that option.) Suppose, for example, that the City of Los Angeles were to conduct a cost-benefit analysis which “proved” that the cost of  constructing yet another freeway through the city would be more than offset (i.e., would yield a “net benefit”) because it would reduce the imputed cost of time spent in traffic by workers who drive into the city from the suburbs.

Yes, that is how cost-benefit analysis works. It assumes that the costs borne by one set of persons (taxpayers, consumers, unemployed factory workers, etc.) can be offset by the benefits that accrue to other persons (commuters, persons who live near factories, environmental “activists,”, etc.).  It is the creed of “the greatest amount of happiness altogether.”

A moment’s reflection will tell you that there is no such thing as “the greatest amount of happiness altogether.” If A steals from B, A is happier for having obtained money with little effort, while B is less happy because he has less money. Does A’s gain in happiness cancel B’s loss of happiness. If you say “yes,” welcome to the world of psychopathy.

And you do say “yes,” implicitly, if you believe in environmental regulation — or any kind of regulation that effectively redistributes income or wealth.

THE ALTERNATIVES TO REGULATION: MARKETS AND COMMON LAW

Given all that I have said in the preceding sections, it seems clear that the burden of proof is (or should be) on those who wish to substitute regulation for markets and common law. It is also clear that, despite Brennan’s wishful thinking, government is incapable of delivering an “optimal amount” of regulation — whatever that might be. Markets may be imperfect (from the standpoint of the non-existent omniscient arbiter), but they are less imperfect than government.

General Arguments for Markets and Common Law Instead of Regulation

Is it wishful thinking to suppose that markets and civil litigation can deal with pollution and other kinds of negative externalities? Not at all:

Free-market environmentalism can also be expected to grow. It is the proven private alternative to costly and ineffective command-and-control schemes for protecting endangered species and habitats. To avoid the tragedy of the commons, one can look to the creation of more private, voluntary arrangements for “property rights” over animals, fish, and ecologically sensitive lands—via auctions of cleverly designed contracts to limit kills and catches and via binding covenants to preserve natural lands in perpetuity. Conservation banks, first created in 1995, now number 70 and represent another approach to environmental protection for endangered birds and animals. (Reason Foundation, “Transforming Government through Privatization,” Annual Privatization Report, 2006)

Terry L. Anderson, executive director of the Property & Environment Research Center (PERC) gives many examples of free-market environmentalism at work in “Markets and the Environment: Friends of Foes?” For much more, see PERC’s large catalog of publications. And PERC is but one of the many organizations doing serious scholarly work in the field of free-market environmentalism.

If you are old enough to remember the Love Canal disaster, you will assume (as I did) that it was the fault of the chemical company that had been dumping waste in the abandoned canal. Not so, according to Richard L. Stroup:

[L]iability for pollution is a powerful motivator when a factory or other potentially polluting asset is privately owned. The case of the Love Canal, a notorious waste dump, illustrates this point. As long as Hooker Chemical Company owned the Love Canal waste site, it was designed, maintained, and operated (in the late 1940s and 1950s) in a way that met even the Environmental Protection Agency standards of 1980. The corporation wanted to avoid any damaging leaks, for which it would have to pay.

Only when the waste site was taken over by local government—under threat of eminent domain, for the cost of one dollar, and in spite of warnings by Hooker about the chemicals—was the site mistreated in ways that led to chemical leakage. The government decision makers lacked personal or corporate liability for their decisions. They built a school on part of the site, removed part of the protective clay cap to use as fill dirt for another school site, and sold off the remaining part of the Love Canal site to a developer without warning him of the dangers as Hooker had warned them. The local government also punched holes in the impermeable clay walls to build water lines and a highway. This allowed the toxic wastes to escape when rainwater, no longer kept out by the partially removed clay cap, washed them through the gaps created in the walls….

Nor does the government sector have the long-range view that property rights provide, which leads to protection of resources for the future. As long as … divestibility, is present, property rights provide long-term incentives for maximizing the value of property. If I mine my land and impair its future productivity or its groundwater, the reduction in the land’s value reduces my current wealth. That is because land’s current worth equals the present value of all future services. Fewer services or greater costs in the future mean lower value now. In fact, on the day an appraiser or potential buyer can first see that there will be problems in the future, my wealth declines. The reverse also is true: any new way to produce more value—preserving scenic value as I log my land, for example, to attract paying recreationists—is capitalized into the asset’s present value.

Because the owner’s wealth depends on good stewardship, even a shortsighted owner has the incentive to act as if he or she cares about the future usefulness of the resource. This is true even if an asset is owned by a corporation. Corporate officers may be concerned mainly about the short term, but as financial economists such as Harvard Business School’s Michael C. Jensen have noted, even they have to care about the future. If current actions are known to cause future problems, or if a current investment promises future benefits, the stock price rises or falls to reflect the change. Corporate officers are informed by (and are judged by) these stock price changes. (From “Free Market Environmentalism,” at the Library of Economics and Liberty.)

The Siren Song of Government Intervention

Stroup stumbles, however, by saying that

when many polluters and those who receive the pollution are involved, how can property rights force accountability? The nearest receivers may be hurt the most, and may be able to sue polluters—but not always. Consider an extreme case: the potential global warming impact of carbon dioxide produced by the burning of wood or fossil fuels. If climate change results, the effects are worldwide. Nearly everyone uses the energy from such fuels, and if the threat of global warming from a buildup of carbon dioxide turns out to be as serious as some claim, then those harmed by global warming will be hard-pressed to assert their property rights against all the energy producers or users of the world. The same is true for those exposed to pollutants produced by autos and industries in the Los Angeles air basin. Private, enforceable, and tradable property rights can work wonders, but they are not a cure-all.

If a cure-all is required, one ought to pray for miracles. Short of miracles, the question is whether it is better to rely on government action or voluntary action, supplemented by civil litigation. I say “or” precisely because government action precludes the alternatives. It is “better” to rely on government if one wants a dictated outcome, is willing to impose the costs of attaining that outcome on persons who are not involved in the situation at hand (e.g., distant taxpayers), and is indifferent to the unintended consequences of government action. It is better to rely on voluntary action, supplemented by civil litigation, if one cares about liberty and economic efficiency (as found in Coasean solutions to conflicts of interest).

Taking smog in the L.A. basin first: It belongs to that class of “problem” which includes choosing to live in areas that are prone to hurricanes, floods, and fires. The obvious voluntary solution — for those who find smog, etc., not worth whatever benefits may accrue to living with it (e.g., higher income) — is to quit the locale. Along comes government to impose one-size-fits-all solutions that also impose costs on persons who do not live in areas where there is smog, etc. The immediate results of government intervention are a disincentive to move and massive subsidization of those who choose not to move by persons who have their own problems to contend with. Further results are

  • disincentives to entrepreneurs who would come forward with ameliorative devices (e.g., air-filtration systems and catalytic converters);
  • disincentives to persons of a charitable bent who would take it upon themselves to help low-income persons afford ameliorative devices and even help to underwrite the development of such devices;
  • moral hazard, that is, putting the non-movers in a position to incur further losses that will be subsidized; and
  • the playing out of the interest-group paradox, wherein those who are subsidized agree (tacitly) to subsidize persons who seek subsidization or other favors from government.

Entrepreneurship is thought to be unlikely (in the circumstance) because of the free-rider problem, but the free-rider problem is overstated. Further, charity (giving without the expectation of more than psychic return) is one proof against the presumption of economic paralysis that is embedded in the statement of the free-rider problem.

Regardless of the arguments against regulation, most politicians and left-wingers would say that it is proper to respond “collectively” to pollution because, after all, that is the hallmark of a “just, caring society,” in which “we” take care of each other. Are disincentives to entrepreneurship, charity, moral hazard, cross-subsidization, and plain old theft by government really the hallmarks of a “just, caring society”? Not at all; they are the facts of life that politicians and leftists prefer to ignore because they prefer collective action (at the point of government’s gun) to effective action. The invocation of a “just, caring society” is a cheap political trick, played by leftists and politicians. In the case of politicians, it is a sign of  (cheap) compassion that helps them win elections, feed at the public trough, and slake their power-lust.

No “Problem” Is Too Big for Private Action

Stroup, despite his evident understanding of the power of markets to solve “problems,” seems to hold a viewpoint in common with knee-jerk advocates of government action: If a “problem” exists, it is only a “problem,” not an incidental, negative aspect of beneficial activity. And its “solution” cannot come at too high a price, that is, whatever price government imposes through regulation, inasmuch as “optimal regulation” is a pipe-dream.

Moreover, the “problem” may be so pervasive that only government can solve it. Why? Because those who suffer negative externalities are unable to bargain with or take legal action against the parties responsible for the externalities. Who are those parties? They are us! We — the users of electricity and the many other products and services whose creation results in the emission of  carbon dioxide — may be joined in an unwitting suicide pact, despite the warnings of  “seers” like Al Gore, James Hansen, Michael Mann, et al.. Those warnings (blatantly hypocritical in Gore’s case) amount to this: “We” (but not “they”) must surrender a large portion of the material gains that have been wrested from nature through ingenuity and industriousness; otherwise, there will be dire consequences for all. (Perhaps it would have been better if our distant ancestors had not learned how to make fire, with all of its dire consequences for humans and their possessions.)

I have written so much about the issue of AGW (e.g., here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here) that I will not bother to address its validity here. I will assume, merely for the sake of argument, that it is a possibility. But saying that it is a possibility does not mean that it is a dire emergency. Consider, for example, these excerpts of Nobel laureate Ivar Ginever’s letter of resignation from the American Physical Society:

In the APS it is ok to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible? The claim (how can you measure the average temperature of the whole earth for a whole year?) is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8 degree Kelvin in about 150 years, which (if true) means to me is that the temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely improved in this ‘warming’ period.

If AGW is truly a problem — and not just a “problem” that “demands” government action — it is evidently not an emergency that requires immediate, concerted action by a central authority. To the contrary, if it is a problem it can be addressed by a variety of voluntary actions. These include the gradual migration of heat-sensitive individuals and economic activities to cooler parts of the globe and the development and spread of ameliorative technologies for those persons and activities that cannot or will not migrate. All such adaptive behavior will become more possible and affordable if economic growth is not choked off by regulations that arbitrarily stifle economic activity by curbing the emission of so-called greenhouse gases. (That a large proportion of individuals and economic activities would thrive as their environment warms a bit seems to be lost on climate-change alarmists.)

If the possibility of AGW does not justify government action, what about a true global emergency? Imagine, for example, that reputable scientists around the globe detect a large asteroid that is almost certain to strike Earth in two years, and that the likely result of the strike is the end of human life on the planet. Would that not justify concerted government action?

Again, I say “no.” What it would justify — and encourage — is action by independent (but possibly cooperative) teams of scientists and engineers, underwritten by various groups of super-rich individuals and large corporations. Why should such individuals and corporations fund an effort that would benefit upward of seven billion free riders? Because the existence of those individuals and corporations would be at stake, and many of them would welcome the glory and/or increased sales that would undoubtedly accompany a successful anti-asteroid operation.

I refer you, again, to my earlier post about the free-rider problem, and the link that is embedded in the post. In both posts, I argue that defense and justice — among other so-called public goods — are nothing of the kind. They are goods that, in a relatively open polity like that of the United States, are better provided by an accountable state than entrusted to competing private entities. It should be obvious — and it is obvious to all but obdurate anarcho-capitalists — that such entities would be the equivalent of warlords. The law of the jungle would replace the rule of law. That possibility is the only excuse for the state’s monopolization of justice and defense. But nothing — not even “externalities” — excuses the state’s intrusion into economic activity that is peaceful and voluntary.

Related posts:
Fear of the Free Market — Part I
Fear of the Free Market — Part II
Fear of the Free Market — Part III
The Social Welfare Function
Risk and Regulation
A Short Course in Economics
The Interest-Group Paradox
Addendum to a Short Course in Economics
Utilitarianism, “Liberalism,” and Omniscience
Accountants of the Soul
Ricardian Equivalence Reconsidered
The Real Burden of Government
Utilitarianism vs. Liberty
Toward a Risk-Free Economy
Rawls Meets Bentham
The Rahn Curve at Work
The Case of the Purblind Economist
The Illusion of Prosperity and Stability
Estimating the Rahn Curve: Or, How Government Inhibits Economic Growth
Luck-Egalitariansim and Moral Luck
Understanding Hayek
The Destruction of Society in the Name of “Society”
What Free-Rider Problem?
Human Nature, Liberty, and Rationalism
Utilitarianism and Psychopathy

Regime Uncertainty and the Great Recession

I have pointed out that the Great Recession is not over.Nor is it likely to end anytime soon, given the anti-business, anti-growth policies and rhetoric of the Obama administration. (Making nice with crony capitalists like Jeff Immelt only underscores Obama’s cynicism.)

Economists Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven Davis have weighed in with a similar assessment; for example:

A major factor behind the weak recovery and gloomy outlook is a climate of policy-induced economic uncertainty. An index we devised [chart below] shows U.S. policy uncertainty at historically high levels….

Our index shows prominent surges in policy uncertainty around the time of major elections, the outbreak of wars and after the Sept. 11 attacks. It shows another surge after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. in September 2008. Policy uncertainty has remained at high levels ever since….

Why has policy uncertainty increased so much? One argument holds that the recent financial crisis created an atmosphere of extreme uncertainty, bringing new and difficult policy issues to the fore. No doubt, the crisis presented policy makers with difficult choices in 2008 and 2009. But the persistence of policy uncertainty wasn’t inevitable. Rather, it reflects deliberate policy decisions, harmful rhetorical attacks on business and “millionaires,” failure to tackle entitlement reforms and fiscal imbalances, and political brinkmanship. (“Business Class: Policy Uncertainty Is Choking Recovery,” Bloomberg.com, October 5, 2011)

Here is the chart that accompanies the article by Baker, Bloom, and Davis:

The rampant uncertainty — due in large part to Obama’s policies and rhetoric — has prolonged the recession because businesses are loath to hire and make job-creating investments:


Source: Mark J. Perry, “The Jobless Recovery Is Really an Investment-less Recovery,” The Enterprise Blog, October 3, 2011.

Greg Mankiw sees it this way:

The most volatile component of G.D.P. over the business cycle is spending on investment goods. This spending category includes equipment, software, inventory accumulation, and residential and nonresidential construction. And the recent economic downturn offers this case in point about the problem: From the economy’s peak in the fourth quarter of 2007 to the recession’s official end, G.D.P. fell by only 5.1 percent, while investment spending fell by a whopping 34 percent….

Myriad government actions influence the expected future profitability of capital. These include not only policies concerning taxation but also those concerning trade and regulation.

For example, passing the free trade agreement with South Korea, which has languished in Congress more than four years after first being negotiated, would be a step in the right direction. So would reining in the National Labor Relations Board; its decision to block Boeing from opening a nonunion plant in South Carolina may have been hailed by organized labor, but it surely did not hearten investors. (“How to Make Business Want to Invest Again,” The New York Times, September 10, 2011)

Stronger language about the negative effects of Obama’s policies can be found here:

Mark J. Perry, “Thanks to Regulatory Burdens, We’ve Got Both A Creditless Recovery and A Jobless Recovery” ( Carpe Diem, July 21, 2011)

Bruce McQuain, “Why aren’t we seeing a jobs recovery? Maybe it’s ObamaCare’s fault” ( Questions and Observations, July 21, 2011)

Jonathan S. Tobin, “Home Depot Founder: Obama’s Regulations Are Killing Businesses” (Commentary, July 21, 2011)

The present situation is scarily reminiscent of the Great Depression. As Robert Higgs writes,

the economy remained in the depression as late as 1940 because private investment had never recovered sufficiently after its collapse during the Great Contraction [of 1929-33]….

[T]he insufficiency of private investment from 1935 through 1940 reflected a pervasive uncertainty among investors about the security of their property rights in their capital and its prospective returns. This uncertainty arose, especially though not exclusively, from the character of federal government actions and the nature of the Roosevelt administration during the so-called Second New Deal from 1935 to 1940. Starting in 1940 the makeup of FDR’s administration changed substantially as probusiness men began to replace dedicated New Dealers in many positions, including most of the offices of high authority in the war-command economy. Congressional changes in the elections from 1938 onward reinforced the movement away from the New Deal, strengthening the so-called Conservative Coalition. (“Regime Uncertainty: Why the Great Depression Lasted So Long and Why Prosperity Resumed after the War,” The Independent Review, Spring 1997)

By way of closing the circle, I note that Higgs endorses Baker, Bloom, and Davis’s research.

It is more than evident that the only sure route to economic recovery is the replacement of Obama by a Republican (almost any one will do), and firm Republican control of both houses of Congress.

Related posts:
Ricardian Equivalence Reconsidered
The Real Burden of Government
The Rahn Curve at Work
How the Great Depression Ended
The Illusion of Prosperity and Stability
The “Forthcoming Financial Collapse”
Experts and the Economy
We’re from the Government and We’re Here to Help You
Estimating the Rahn Curve: Or, How Government Inhibits Economic Growth
The Deficit Commission’s Deficit of Understanding
Undermining the Free Society
The Bowles-Simpson Report
The Bowles-Simpson Band-Aid
The Great Recession Is Not Over
The Stagnation Thesis
America’s Financial Crisis Is Now
Say’s Law, Government, and Unemployment
Taxing the Rich
More about Taxing the Rich
Money, Credit, and Economic Fluctuations
A Keynesian Fantasy Land
“Tax Expenditures” Are Not Expenditures
The Keynesian Fallacy and Regime Uncertainty
Why the “Stimulus” Failed to Stimulate
The “Jobs Speech” That Obama Should Have Given

Utilitarianism and Psychopathy

From “No, Utilitarians Are Not Nice,” at Commentary:

The Economist reports two researchers from Columbia and Cornell have been studying the personalities of individuals who, in surveys, express a willingness to personally kill one human in the hope of saving more. Their conclusion is there is “a strong link between utilitarian answers to moral dilemmas . . . and personalities that were psychopathic.” The Economist’s conclusion, in its usual slightly tongue-in-cheek style, is utilitarianism is a “plausible framework” for producing legislation, and the best legislators are therefore psychopathic misanthropes….

What is missing … in the Economist’s praise of law-making as expressing the will of the psychopath, is the point from Friedrich Hayek​ that Steve Hayward has been making on Power Line recently: “Central planning cannot work because it is trying to substitute an individual all-knowing intelligence for a distributed and fragmented system of localized but connected knowledge.”

I will resist the justifiable temptation to apply the label of psychopath to executive, legislative, and judicial law-makers. But I will call them deluded in the extreme if they believe in the possibility of determining the greatest good for the greatest number. Hayek’s objection to central planning hints at the fundamental problem with utilitarianism, but does not quite hit it dead-center.

The fundamental problem with utilitarianism, as it is practiced by governments, is that it relies on something called cost-benefit analysis. It is modern utilitarianism:

Governments often subject proposed projects and regulations (e.g., new highway construction, automobile safety requirements) to cost-benefit analysis. The theory of cost-benefit analysis is simple: If the expected benefits from a government project or regulation are greater than its expected costs, the project or regulation is economically justified. Luckily, most “justified” projects are scrapped or substantially altered by the intervention of political bargaining and budget constraints, but many of them are undertaken — only to cost far more than estimated and return far less than expected.

Here’s the problem with cost-benefit analysis — the problem it shares with utilitarianism: One person’s benefit can’t be compared with another person’s cost. Suppose, for example, the City of Los Angeles were to conduct a cost-benefit analysis that “proved” the wisdom of constructing yet another freeway through the city in order to reduce the commuting time of workers who drive into the city from the suburbs.

Before constructing the freeway, the city would have to take residential and commercial property. The occupants of those homes and owners of those businesses (who, in many cases would be lessees and not landowners) would have to start anew elsewhere. The customers of the affected businesses would have to find alternative sources of goods and services. Compensation under eminent domain can never be adequate to the owners of taken property because the property is taken by force and not sold voluntarily at a true market price. Moreover, others who are also harmed by a taking (lessees and customers in this example) are never compensated for their losses. Now, how can all of this uncompensated cost and inconvenience be “justified” by, say, the greater productivity that might (emphasize might) accrue to those commuters who would benefit from the construction of yet another freeway.

Yet, that is how cost-benefit analysis works. It assumes that group A’s cost can be offset by group B’s benefit: “the greatest amount of happiness altogether.”

The true psychopathy of (most) law-makers (and others) is not found in their utilitarianism per se but in their raw urge to control the lives of others. Utilitarianism is an excuse to exercise that raw urge, not the source of it.

Related posts:
Modern Utilitarianism
Peter Singer’s Fallacy
The Social Welfare Function
Utilitarianism, “Liberalism,” and Omniscience
Utilitarianism vs. Liberty
Rawls Meets Bentham
The Case of the Purblind Economist

Texas Does Retirement Better

Merrill Matthews writes about the alternative to Social Security that was adopted by three Texas counties decades ago (“Perry Is Right: There Is a Texas Model for Fixing Social Security“):

Since 1981 and 1982, workers in Galveston, Matagorda and Brazoria Counties have seen their retirement savings grow every year, even during the Great Recession. The so-called Alternate Plan of these three counties doesn’t follow the traditional defined-benefit or defined-contribution model….

As with Social Security, employees contribute 6.2% of their income, with the county matching the contribution (or, as in Galveston, providing a slightly larger share). Once the county makes its contribution, its financial obligation is done—that’s why there are no long-term unfunded liabilities.

The contributions are pooled, like bank deposits, and top-rated financial institutions bid on the money. Those institutions guarantee an interest rate that won’t go below a base level and goes higher when the market does well….

If a worker participating in Social Security dies before retirement, he loses his contribution (though part of that money might go to surviving children or a spouse who didn’t work). But a worker in the Alternate Plan owns his account, so the entire account belongs to his estate. There is also a disability benefit that pays immediately upon injury, rather than waiting six months plus other restrictions, as under Social Security.

Those who retire under the Texas counties’ Alternate Plan do much better than those on Social Security. According to First Financial’s calculations, based on 40 years of contributions:

• A lower-middle income worker making about $26,000 at retirement would get about $1,007 a month under Social Security, but $1,826 under the Alternate Plan.

• A middle-income worker making $51,200 would get about $1,540 monthly from Social Security, but $3,600 from the banking model.

• And a high-income worker who maxed out on his Social Security contribution every year would receive about $2,500 a month from Social Security versus $5,000 to $6,000 a month from the Alternate Plan….

The Alternate Plan could be adopted today by the six million public employees in the U.S.—roughly 25% of the total—who are part of state and local government retirement plans that are outside of Social Security (and are facing serious unfunded liability problems). Unfortunately this option is available only to those six million public employees, since in 1983 Congress barred all others from leaving Social Security.

If Congress overrides this provision, however, the Alternate Plan could be a model for reforming Social Security nationally. After all, it provides all the social-insurance benefits of Social Security while avoiding the unfunded liabilities that are crippling the program and the economy.

Just think of it: real saving to underwrite economic growth, no crushing burden on future generations, and more money for retirees.

It’s a shame that FDR, his successors, and many Congresses have been incapable of grasping basic economic concepts. They have been too busy “governmentizing” the economy and slowing economic growth through their “soak the rich” schemes.

Related posts:
Social Security Is Unconstitutional
Why It Makes Sense to Privatize Social Security
P.S. on Privatizing Social Security
That Mythical, Magical Social Security Trust Fund
The Real Social Security Issue
Social Security — Myth and Reality
Nonsense and Sense about Social Security
More about Social Security
Social Security Privatization and the Stock Market
Social Security: The Permanent Solution
Social Security Transition Costs, in a Nutshell
A Market Solution to the Social Security Mess?
Saving Social Security
The Bowles-Simpson Report
The Bowles-Simpson Band-Aid
PolitiFact Whiffs on Social Security