The Great Recession Is Barely Over … Maybe

UPDATED 12/22/11

The third estimate of real GDP for the third quarter of 2011 (3Q2011) is $15 billion lower than last month’s advance estimate. The annualized rate of $13,331.6 billion (in chained 2005 dollars) is only $5.6 billion above the estimate for the fourth quarter of 2007 (4Q2007), the last pre-recession quarter.

Based on the third estimate, real GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.011 percent — 11/1000 of one percent — between 4Q2007 and 3Q2011. In other words, real GDP in 3Q2011 is the same as it was in 4Q2007. Whether or not the Great Recession has ended is still up in the air and will not be known (possibly) until the release of GDP estimates for 4Q2011.

Related posts:
The Great Recession is Not Over
The Keynesian Fallacy and Regime Uncertainty
Regime Uncertainty and the Great Recession